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Poland's demographic, migration & fertility rate disaster


ufo973 10 | 89
21 Jul 2014 #1
Here is a an interesting article on the demographics of Poland: sz-n.com/2012/12/polands-demographic-disaster/

Here is some interesting facts about Polish ZUS...

Much of the blame much lie with the inefficient Z.U.S. system of social insurance, which can consume as much as half of people's salaries, yet gives back little in return. There is no system of family allowance in Poland, (in the U.K. over 100 PLN a week for every child), only a tiny, one-off payment. It would seem that Z.U.S. exists primarily to benefit the Z.U.S. bureaucrats, rather than those it is intended to help, those who pay Z.U.S..

The exodus from Poland of many of its youngest and brightest should be a wake-up call for Poland's politicians. So far, since the fall of communism, they've had nearly 25 years to start to get things right. It is up to them to create the kind of country people would like to live in, and not to leave.

And here is why Polish immigrants in the UK are bringing more children then Poles in Poland...The so called Polish baby boom in UK

thenews/1/10/Artykul/161201,Polands-baby-boom-in-UK

And some intersting facts from this article...

Research by Britain's Office for National Statistics has found that the average Polish-born woman in England and Wales has given birth to 2.13 children, while comparative statistics in Poland show the birth-rate at 1.3.
With Poland's politicians trying to think up ways of staving off a demographic crisis - the working-age population (15-64 years old) is predicted to fall by 40 percent within the next 50 years, as the population ages. - experts are urging the country to look again at its policies on child care.

Szalawa 3 | 248
21 Jul 2014 #2
this is not a bad thing, once these Pole's make enough money in UK many will go back to Poland with their family and money
Monitor 14 | 1,820
21 Jul 2014 #3
That's really a problem. In my view joining Poland to EU was the main cause. If not that, then people would not leave in so big quantities. The difference in earnings has been too big not to expect mass emigration. And Szalawa you're not right, because people leave and come back, but all the time more leave than comes back, and it will not change in next decades.

And statement, that it's all because of high taxation is nonsense. Poland has similar taxation level to other EU countries. Biggest problem is low earnings and relatively high apartment prices.
pam
21 Jul 2014 #4
once these Pole's make enough money in UK many will go back to Poland with their family and money

I don't think it's quite that simple.
I'm unsure of the figures regarding the number of Poles currently in the UK, or how many have returned to Poland since 2004, but of the Poles I personally know, none of them have returned to Poland with overflowing pockets or enough money to buy a home or land. The ones I know that have returned have done so because the UK wasn't what they were expecting or because the work situation was difficult due to language problems.

Living in the UK is expensive, and although most of the Poles I know are better off here than they were in Poland, there certainly isn't scope for saving loads of money, unless you are fortunate enough to have very good language and transferable job skills, or you want to live under very bleak conditions. Even coming to the UK with a university education doesn't guarantee you a job.

I'm certainly not surprised by the so called Polish baby boom in the UK. If families here have more financial stability than in Poland, then it makes sense. And if the reason for coming in the first place was due to the low wages and unemployment in PL, why would people who have chosen to have families here, return? More to the point, I doubt they could afford to return that easily with a family either, especially after living here for years and being out of the job market in Poland.

I'm not sure what the answer is, but Poland needs to provide more incentives to keep its citizens there. With low wages, high unemployment and poor childcare, it's a no brainer why Poles are moving abroad and staying there.
Monitor 14 | 1,820
21 Jul 2014 #5
More to the point, I doubt they could afford to return that easily with a family either, especially after living here for years and being out of the job market in Poland.

That's an important point. I've read on the Internet, that quite many professionals have tried to come back to Poland, but their top experience from abroad was considered worse than Polish. Some companies did not want to employ them, because they were afraid that people with valuable foreign experience may have too high salary demands or simple be more likely to leave for a better job. Moreover Poland has less advanced industry, so there is less jobs for specialists, combining it with high number of graduates, there is bigger competition for specialized positions than in western countries.

So it's harder to get a good job and later it's much less payed.
TheOther 5 | 3,758
21 Jul 2014 #6
once these Pole's make enough money in UK many will go back to Poland with their family and money

Provided that their children - which will all be little Brits after they've spent their childhood in the UK - actually want to go back to Poland. The country might as well end up with a wave of 60 something's (the parents of said children) who want to spend their golden years back home.
Szalawa 3 | 248
21 Jul 2014 #7
A Brit can become a Pole and vise versa, it all depends on the degree of assimilation. If they are Slavs at heart they may consider going back home.
PC_Sceptic - | 70
21 Jul 2014 #8
I have made a video for YT about 6-7 years ago, pointing this problem out, Very low fertility rate in Poland and consequences for the future.

That Poland will run out of work force, with 1.3 (at that time I think) fertility rate..minimum is 2.1-2.2

All comments were negative, like "paranoid dude", "not here in Poland"
Comments about wrong background music (Tchaikovsky and Wagner) why didn't I pick polish composer or band etc, etc.
Finally the video was flagged and taken down... I still have the project file, I could change few things here and there (update to current times) and re-upload.

mhhh I think I will go for it.
TheOther 5 | 3,758
21 Jul 2014 #9
If they are Slavs at heart they may consider going back home.

The concept and ideas behind the term 'Polonia' are mostly based on wishful thinking, IMO. First generation immigrants remember home, wherever that may be. Their children are already torn between two countries. The third generation is usually integrated and knows their ancestral lands only from hearsay. Home is anywhere but Poland, so why would they go back there (other than for jobs or as tourists)? Or do you believe that ethnic Poles are like many ethnic Turks - unable or unwilling to assimilate? I doubt that very much, given how most Polish people integrated into British, Australian or German societies in the past for example. The young people who left Poland after 1989 will be Poland's lost generation, I'm afraid.
Szalawa 3 | 248
21 Jul 2014 #10
There will be those willing to assimilate and others that won't. For example Gypsies lived in Europe for about a 1000 years and for the most part have not assimilated. But this is getting offtopic
Vlad1234 16 | 725
5 Jul 2020 #11
Merged:

Native European and Polish fertility rates.



Policies in Hungary and Poland are aimed at boosting birthrates. But will it help arrest population decline?

"It follows neatly on from the government's relentless anti-migration message of the past five years. "In all of Europe there are fewer and fewer children, and the answer of the west to this is migration," said Orbán in his annual state of the nation address last year. "They want as many migrants to enter as there are missing kids, so that the numbers will add up. We Hungarians have a different way of thinking. Instead of just numbers, we want Hungarian children. Migration for us is surrender."

theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/04/baby-bonuses-fit-the-nationalist-agenda-but-do-they-work

"Yet despite all the investment, the jury is still out on whether these policies work. In Hungary, the fertility rate has risen from 1.23 to 1.48, though it is hard to gauge how much of that is down to specific policies. In Poland, a brief spike in births after the introduction of the 500+ policy was not sustained. "You don't expect a breakthrough in two or three years, it's going to take at least 10," said Zoltán Kovács, Orbán's spokesman."

What do you think about this? It looks like financial incentives to rise fertility rates among Poles and Hungarians are still insufficient by far. There is a surprising difference between Eastern and Western approach to the problem. Shouldn't native Europeans supposed to be recognized as "ethnicities on the verge of extinction" and there could be some financial help to rise children along the ethnical lines?
pawian 176 | 14,299
11 Jul 2020 #12
baby-bonuses-fit-the-nationalist-agenda-but-do-they-work

Benefits are nice but paying for a private kindergarten when your kid wasn`t accepted by the cheaper state one costs much more than 500 PLN. So, what Polesses expect is friendlier laws and facilities for mothers.
Vlad1234 16 | 725
15 Jul 2020 #13
I want to create an international movement which would proclaim ethnic Europeans an "endangered species on the verge of extinction" and have a program to provide a huge subsidies from governments and private funds to increase fertility rates among ethnic Europeans everywhere in the World. I live in Canada, but officially I cannot register a political party until I have at least around 255 party members and signatures. If you want to join or have any comment or suggestions, please do it. For now I don't know any registered party with the same clear agenda.
pawian 176 | 14,299
15 Jul 2020 #14
I live in Canada,

That`s the problem. You won`t sound too credible fighting for a European cause. Imagine I set up a party or society for preventing cruelty to Canadian natives.
Vlad1234 16 | 725
15 Jul 2020 #15
But in Canada majority of population are native Europeans. Why must not they be interested in their own future and survival as a species? And whom do you mean under "Canadian natives"? We have West Indians (aboriginals) here, but their fertility rates and survival not under threat, from what I know.
gumishu 11 | 5,510
15 Jul 2020 #16
when your kid wasn`t accepted by the cheaper state one

state? or belonging to municipal authorities? I can vividly remember that during PO-PSL rule kindergartens were privatised in bigger cities
pawian 176 | 14,299
15 Jul 2020 #17
state? or belonging to municipal authorities?

I used a shortcut that is commonly used by Poles as opposed to private one.

I can vividly remember that during PO-PSL rule kindergartens were privatised in bigger cities

PO ruled 6 years ago, leave them alone. Now it has been PIS` time for 5 years. hahaha
Tacitus 2 | 1,212
15 Jul 2020 #18
surprising difference between Eastern and Western approach to the problem.

I don't see that difference. Countries like Germany have also introduced a lot of financial incencitives, but this is not going to fundamentally change the birth rate. Most women who choose not to have children do so because they dont want to give up their career and maintain their freedom. A few bucks more per month wont convince them.

France is doing quite well partly because they managed to integrate mothers better into the qorkforce, by providing them with daycare services and schools that are open for most of the day.
pawian 176 | 14,299
15 Jul 2020 #19
by providing them with daycare services and schools that are open for most of the day.

So, we can say we fully agree on that matter.

And whom do you mean under "Canadian natives"?

Of course I didn`t mean Indians, but Inuits who were wronged so much in the past and probably still are. .
Vlad1234 16 | 725
15 Jul 2020 #20
A few bucks more per month wont convince them.

A few bucks of course not. I suggest for such country as Germany or Canada a subsidy should be around 100-200 thousands per each child to change situation seriously.


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