News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

@gumishu
In theory to you and I 1.25 is nothing really. To banks who were at .5 percent it is a big jump in what money will cost them. And in order to maintain profit margin a one million loan just went up about 10K in initial cost, and the commission for the loan also climbed. With commercial loans in the tens and hundreds of millions that adds up quickly and the risk also adds up from and insurance underwriting view of the loan which cuts off a lot of commercial money. This has a similar impact on mortgages.

Credit is market reactionary, and that finance move was a big one.

The income tax and the Polish Deal will in its current state be soul crushing. When you look at how commercial loans are done for small business, those people making more than 85K are in the no mans land. They make just enough to have a nicer life, and now make too much for tax purposes, and their income actually becomes less attractive to lenders because they are not taking home as much of it.

The interest rate hike is a short term bet a hedge if you will. And it is not working, the zloty is closing in on 4 to 1 USD again already. The pull back did not even last a day.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

@gumishu
The 30,000 tax free deal for poor and retired is acceptable for me. The problem I have is with the additional 32% on anything over 85 K. My reasoning is simple.

PiS and possibly the old leadership as well want traditional families. More children, more women in what they think are traditional roles. Ok. So if an entrepreneur is making 100K or more per year while his wife stays home with the kids, he gets clobbered for being more successful and having the "ideal" family.

Another entrepreneur wants to start another business, but his post tax income doesnt allow for him to invest more without putting his pre tax investment at further risk.

Business growth requires liquidity. The national banks just raised interest rates, making access to credit less likely and it was already less likely for entrepreneurs to begin with. While it wont effect state owned corporations because they have been gouging the consumer during the whole crisis.

I think both sides have no clue what they are doing and saying when it comes to the economy. I think it will take a centrist to get things on track. Tax the rich. Those making more than 250K per year should pay more, and there are enough of them to make a difference. You do not tax the people who are trying to become rich because they wont get there. But once there, they will understand its time to pay.

This is all quite easy to see in demographic studies.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

@Novichok
I am not saying there has been change or no change. I am just pointing out the problem at current. The Polish Deal is going to make things very bad if it is not scrapped or changed dramatically. PiS is in charge, if PO were in charge and making these decisions I would say the same things. Party means nothing to me. Policy is what is supposed to set party's apart from each other.

This fiscal policy is an economy killer. Coupled with the potential loss of EU recovery money it will get very bad, for a very long time. It is bad enough to have me thinking of leaving simply so I don't have to watch it happen. As much as I prefer the lifestyle here for the last few years, that lifestyle for many is changing and will continue to change, which will impact everyone eventually.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

PiS poliicy contributes to general inflation. Hyper inflation is global, yes, though the PiS policy has accelerated this in Poland. We will be at 8% before the end of the year, and that is considerably higher than anywhere else in the EU and much higher than US.

The taxation proposed in the Polish Deal crushes the middle class and does next to nothing to the very wealthy, while not giving much to the poor. The Polish Deal destroys local municipal tax bases and forces the cutting of services locally. When entrepreneur's are getting killed with taxes, there is less business growth at the grass roots small business level, and this is what kills economies like a slow cancer.

These policies, coupled with the insane global approach to the virus will send many in Poland into financial crisis within 12 months. More business will close under the Polish Deal and less will be opening. Cities will cut services, and people will suffer.

Meanwhile gasoline is still at crazy costs compared to oil, and state profits are filling coffers and pockets of people who have multiple party appointed positions. Interest rates were just raised again, and the government same out and said it had an immediate impact on the zloty. It did, the exchange rate changed by one grosz. And this is something to brag about?

Now the head of the central bank is afraid he will not get a third term. Rightly so because he is inept at his job. The question is does his ineptness cause these bad fiscal policy or does political policy contribute to his ineptness and cause even worse fiscal management?

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

@johnny reb
Not commercial real estate either. Thats just a hobby. Apology accepted lol

News / Abortion still under control in Poland [2986]

@Atch
Excellent points! In Poland though, there is no referendum, laws are simply jammed up peoples behinds based on ideology. If there had been a referendum it would be simple and PiS could not be blamed, but this is not the case here.

News / Abortion still under control in Poland [2986]

@Cojestdocholery
"holy" phrases? Not me. No place for religion in an intelligent conversation about having control over your own body and your own right to live. No different than those who make the choice to not get or to get vaccinated.

News / Years of Poland in the EU - assessment of pros and cons [1199]

@Miloslaw
The EU will be forced to change and recognize each country can govern in its own was structured around the treaties. The primacy issue is one that I think will lose in their own courts.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

@pawian
Maybe he appreciated the argument, and good post does not mean he agrees with everything in it. Appreciating opinion and intelligent thought does not mean changing ones own mind. This is the difference between emotional argument and discussion.

News / Abortion still under control in Poland [2986]

@Cojestdocholery
You sir are the stupid zealot. Maybe men should be forced at 15 to have a vasectomy since they are reversible? Then when they are deemed ready or capable of having children or we are assured they will not rape, the procedure can be reversed upon marriage. Sounds brilliant and absolutely in line with those against women having control of their bodies.

News / Years of Poland in the EU - assessment of pros and cons [1199]

@jon357
Actually jon, fines can not be deducted from recovery money and they are not being paid. Now France takes issue with EU primacy of law regarding fishing rights. Based on this I see a compromise quickly in order to keep France on the "right side" of things according to EU.

News / Abortion still under control in Poland [2986]

@Cojestdocholery
Not pro or anti abortion. I am an intelligent thinker who can easily see that no one person has any right to decide what another person does or does not do with their body. I am particularly pro life when it comes to the life of a mother with another child and husband who are now a widower and motherless because of this ignorant law. A law founded in the belief of a zealot who has never been married and never had children. WTF is anyone doing following this kind of person who speaks on things with zero life experience in those things?

News / Abortion still under control in Poland [2986]

@Cojestdocholery
When a mother dies leaving behind another child after the child she is carrying is already determined to definitely not survive, the person making the laws allowing for this death should be charged with murder. The doctor who did not have the balls to save a life should be charged with murder. And religious zealots who think it is ok for the government to mandate what is right or wrong in this issue should be forced to endure this exact type of situation with their mother, daughter or child.

News / Abortion still under control in Poland [2986]

@Cojestdocholery
And if you were the doctor making the decision you should be held responsible for the death of this woman. Pretty simple when a doctor takes an oath to do no harm. When the PiS retards enact laws that cause people to die they should be held responsible. It is no different than pulling a trigger of a small arms weapon and waiting for someone to bleed out.

News / Abortion still under control in Poland [2986]

When doctors live in fear of prosecution the government has over reached. When people die because of doctors inaction due to fear of prosecution, the government who made the laws responsible for the death, and those that advocated for the law should be charged with murder. And it only took a year for this to happen. I wonder how many deaths not accounted for due to back room abortions?

News / Abortion still under control in Poland [2986]

@Cojestdocholery
The story is true. If you were in Poland you would know because even the Catholics are outraged.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

@johnny reb
My business is not sporting goods. And no, my views are not from my pocketbook. I have multiple business in different industries and when one may be low the others are usually high. I mentioned sports because I have friends who have pulled their children out of sports participation because the costs are getting too high, and they did not take a holiday this year for the same reason. No worry for me though, I really enjoyed Spain.

I did actually get an electricity bill for one that was considerably higher. So yes, it will effect everyone. Hyper inflation world wide is not my concern. My concern is the people on the street that make economies move. The small business owners, and those employees who we can not survive without. Big business is not what drives the global economy and it never has been.

Some small countries are flat on growth and some are actually still growing. Most are poorer countries to begin with, but they positioned themselves to rely on small business out of necessity and it is helping them get through the crisis.

Poland, and this is a Polish forum, is not helping the small business owner and the government is not making good fiscal policy. Does it make sense to force small business to close if they can not pay the rent when the same government forced them to close their business without financial backing to get through the closure? When all the big money went to big state owned corporations?

Does it make sense that the state owned gasoline companies did not lot prices when oil was at historic lows, or during the lockdowns? They gouged the consumer in Poland and enjoyed record profits while people lost real business and real jobs. In the US gas prices fluctuate with the price of oil, not in Poland.

The world is in a position of change. Change is always painful even when it is a good change someone is going to experience pain. The question is, when will the world leaders actually step up and look at the people they allegedly represent, not just in Poland, and when will those "leaders" actually do things for the benefit of those people?

PiS in specific, is loosing grip. The Polish Deal will be their demise within 12 months of its passing, when ever it eventually passes. The EU fight has shown they are not smart enough to put the money for the country ahead of their own internal beliefs. Though I think personally they may be right in their stance, it is still a stance that places people in danger of not receiving what they have expected and was promised.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

@johnny reb
PiS has nothing to do with the world meltdown, and the whole world is not melting down. PiS has everything to do with the current and oncoming fiscal disaster.

I have no beef with PiS at all when it comes to their social agendas on immigration and things. I support a lot of their agenda. But as a business person, these guys are clowns operating a bank with a printing machine. They have no clue what they are doing. Keep throwing ideas at the wall and see what will stick.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]


That was interesting actually. I dont bring religion into things though, personal belief should not influence intelligent discussion.

While you are right, inflation is everywhere. Other bad fiscal policy is not everywhere, and I am talking about Poland. These are my observations and what I see personally, not what other people tell me they saw.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

@Strzelec35
Fiscal liberal not social liberal is essentially communist. Depend on the state and the state will provide. Didn't work out so well the last time it was done here.

When every day citizens start changing their spending habits because of prices rising to the point where they are willing to sacrifice a vacation, children's sporting activities, classes for the arts that are extra curricular you are starting to see a real problem with personal finance. These things are happening in Poland now.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

@johnny reb
Lets stop using liberals and general labels because under your definition PiS would be a liberal party.

PiS is to blame for all the other bad fiscal policy. Hyper inflation is just a symptom of all that is happening, not simply COVID.

Cars are too expensive because of entitlements the automakers promised to people who can retire at 55 and milk the payments for 20 or more years and free health care. Advertising and executive pay is also a big problem.

Banks and executive pay, with golden parachutes are a big problem. All of this mirrors the problems set up in Polands state owned corporations that are being fleeced by cronies. PiS is a disaster because of stupidity and bad timing. If not for the virus, the bad timing would have allowed for a continued period of more bad fiscal decisions.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

@pawian
Paradise was not promised, but paradise is what people thought they heard. This is a comprehension issue and it is systemic throughout Poland on many issues. Paradise does not come from 500+ or an added pension payment. But people in the countryside thought it would be a huge difference, and for some it was. Now though it means nothing with this inflation, all that money is worth nothing.

News / Years of Poland in the EU - assessment of pros and cons [1199]

@Tacitus
In the end, it is always people, the citizens that are the last line of defense. There is not a single autocratic government that has survived the test of time. Poland is a net receiver of EU money, seeing that go away will hurt. Inflation will rise more sharply and more quickly.

That said, PiS days are numbered. They have been for a while now. COVID will be their undoing, and if not for COVID I think people would have continued to fall for the free money for votes for at least another cycle. Now though the free money can't buy anything, and wont be effective. Coupled with the EU strife, and continued closure of business owned by families you have the perfect storm to end PiS rule.

The Polish Deal will be the final nail when tax revenues to cities are reported before the 2023 elections and services have to be cut. It is going to get worse before it gets better in Poland.

News / Years of Poland in the EU - assessment of pros and cons [1199]

@Tacitus
The Pound is stronger than the Euro, and England looks to be doing fine. Poland though is not England, and leaving the EU and the money would be damaging. That said, elimination of 23% VAT could reduce the impact and spur the growth of tourism. VAT is a crushing tax for consumers and business alike. Not convinced the EU experiment is good or bad, but it is definitely complicated and a political disaster.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

@Cargo pants
The self service restaurant in Krakow, near plac dominikanska was there since 1890. Closed and empty now. Sick to my stomach to see some of the devastation, and more is coming.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

@Cargo pants
Looking like the zloty will be 4 for 1 USD in the next day or so. 10% loss in the last few months. That could escalate as well. If the EU does hold back funding from Poland, we could see things get very bad before the end of the year or early in 22.

News / Years of Poland in the EU - assessment of pros and cons [1199]

@mafketis
Thank you Maf. COVID fear, is the tool of the left or the Democrats depending on where you live. I fell for it at the beginning watching news from USA. After living it though, I am no longer buying the fear. All the panic has not done much. Virus still spreading and mutating, vaccine keeps you from dying in most cases but you can still get sick and still spread. So what, lets move on already.

News / Poland highest inflation in 20 years [319]

@Novichok
It is also caused by poor fiscal policy, and bad investments. Coupled with cash giveaways, and printing money during lockdowns is exactly what I said it would be a year and a half ago. I said it would be a financial disaster and it is. Now toss in no new EU cash for the time being, and Poland is in trouble. Dont get me wrong, I am not buying what Tusk is selling either. This inflation though was completely predictable.

News / Years of Poland in the EU - assessment of pros and cons [1199]

@pawian
Isn't it the leftists provoking the COVID fear?

News / Years of Poland in the EU - assessment of pros and cons [1199]

@Strzelec35
Poland would be better simply based on infrastructure. Thanks to all the EU money, the roads, rails and supply chains in Poland is really very good. The 2 lane highways suck, but the road conditions are great. Poland also has more housing, and better housing. While Poland is not a powerhouse in many areas, Putin would see the land mass, and the idea of getting Poland away from the EU and NATO would be such powerful propaganda he could not resist.