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Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]
The Soviet Union has ceased to exist because of economic collapse. And once it got weaker an ethic tensions has started to be visible as well.
Austro-Hungarian Empire has collapsed because of the nationalist movements and ethnic tensions within it.
And those two were strong, centralized organisms with their own armies and police forces.
The EU, fortunatelly, doesn't have such tools at its disposal. The EU in its current form can only exist as a voluntary union of nations. And the Brussels can only try to use propaganda, a and the money, to keep its members at bay. The EU doesn't have hard power and cannot force anyone to act according to their will. The EU apparatus is virtually helpless against the Polish and Hungarian political resistance so far.
Poland is quite immune to that propaganda and soon also will become a net payer to the EU budget. So even a financial blackmail would not be possible. The long term political goals of Poland are not the same as those held by the EU core. The EU wants federalization - Poland prefers Europe of nations. The EU stears towards cultural marxism - Poland wants to keep its traditional values. The split is inevitable. It is only a matter of time.
There are more cracks on the surface of the EU, which can be used to disasemble it:
- most eurozone members, and especially the economies of Spain and Italy, are being screwed by € currency, which only truly benefits Germany and Netherlands.
- almost 5 years passed and the "refugee" crisis is still there. And the Turkey is blackmailing the EU by threatening to release another big wave of "refugees"
- Italian economy has stalled and stopped growing since the 90's. There are many EU sceptic forces in the country on both: the right and the left political spectrum
- In Spain there's a huge unemplyment rate, up to 35% among young people. And the far-right Vox political party is growing in numbers and has 50 MEPs in a parliament as of now.
- Greece is still in a finacial pit and was humiliated by the Germany during the last crisis
- There is a social unrest in France, general strikes and a yellow vests movement which is still very active on the street more than a year after its creation. This could possibly boost Marine Le Pen to power during the next elections.
- and even in Germany you've got AfD, a third political power, which has gained a great support in the East Germany
Another "refugee" crisis combined with financial crisis at the same time could be the final nail in the coffin for the EU.