News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I just can't make sense of it. It's not important for most people right now, and it could backfire badly if Trzaskowski ignores it and focuses on real problems.

For me, it's a clear sign that they're in panic mode.

Konfederacja have already ridiculed Duda, saying that it's a clear attempt to buy their supporters and nothing else. What's fascinating is that Konfederacja supporters are also ridiculing it - I've seen numerous quotes where they've made it clear that they either don't care about LGBT people, or something along the lines of "they've had 5 years to introduce this and they haven't done it, why trust them now?". Others are saying that while they don't want LGBT ideology in schools/public life, they have nothing against LGBT people as people, and therefore they think Duda is a dick. It's astonishing stuff.

If Bosak's support rejects Duda to the level that is speculated (up to 75% of them not voting for Duda), then Duda loses. It's that clear.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


The thing is that Duda's attempting to make something out of nothing, and it isn't working. He's left looking stupid, because while Trzaskowski is proposing real solutions to real issues, Duda is busy focusing on things like the Karta Rodziny. Young people with children will be looking for solid financial support, not vague meaningless declarations.

People need money and solutions, not random declarations that have no legal power whatsoever.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Why does he need to gain more? All the polls are showing the same story - that if Trzaskowski scores 30% and Duda scores ~40%, then it's going to be much harder for Duda to find votes in the 2nd round than Trzaskowski. Even Marcin Palade (well known PiS-sympathiser and political scientist, but a fair one) is making it clear that Duda can only rely on 20-25% of Bosak's votes in the 2nd round, while Trzaskowski will pick up 30-35% of them.

For Trzaskowski, there's nothing to be gained by attacking other candidates. Biedroń tried to attack Hołownia and failed. Hołownia tried to attack Trzaskowski and failed. Why would Trzaskowski make the same mistake, when he could just reach out to their electorates after the 1st round, especially given that there's not much sympathy for Duda among the electorate of the other candidates?

As for Trzaskowski speaking - he seems to have done pretty well to get 1.6m signatures in 5 days, especially given that no other candidate managed it in 5 weeks.


However, it's not that simple. He has two choices - he can either try and win over the centre ground, or he can go full radical and try and win over Bosak's electorate. Either strategy is dangerous, yet he needs to win one of them convincingly. The electoral mathematics are the same ones that caused PiS to lose in the Senate - they ignored the threat from Konfederacja and ended up losing the Senate as a result.

Interesting note: four debates are planned now.

Newsweek - 15.06.2020
TVP - 17.06.2020
TVN - 19.06.2020 (possible change)
Polsat - 22.06.2020

The Polsat one will be the one to watch.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another forecast based on the polls so far.

A.Duda 39,1%
R.Trzaskowski 29,5%
S.Hołownia 10,6%
K.Bosak 8,1%
W.K-Kamysz 7,7%
R.Biedroń 3,2%

Duda's support hasn't moved, but Trzaskowski is edging upwards. I'd expect Trzaskowski to keep taking Hołownia's support over the next week or so, and I'd expect WKK, Bosak and Hołownia to all focus on attacking Duda to try and get some votes. All of them have something to fight for, and whoever wins 3rd place will have some monumentum going forwards in politics. However, I'm sticking with Hołownia in 3rd place - he will perform exceptionally well at the debate, which should be enough.

Most political commentators agree that Duda has 1-2% over Trzaskowski and is in a virtual tie with Hołownia in the 2nd round. The question for PiS is just how far Duda should go to try and claim Bosak's supporters in the 2nd round - if he moves to the right, he'll lose support in the centre, and vice-versa.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another day, and more strange things from PiS:

1. Duda lost his nerve when confronting a voter that called him a puppet. He didn't act convincingly or like a president, but rather as a typical party hack. He's also repeating the line that PiS were getting rid of communists from the Supreme Court, yet Duda also swore in an actual real communist in Piotrowicz.

2. Even stranger words from Szymon Szynkowski vel Sęk, who told people that miners deserve 100% of their salary while others got 80% or nothing - because "there is a difference between a miner who has no alternative to work in any other way, who is the breadwinner in the family". I wonder how teachers, who were told to pick strawberries, feel about this? Or what about hairdressers and make-up artists?

3. Szumowski is going from hero to zero in no time, not least now because he's threatening the return of restrictions while Morawiecki and others completely disregard the regulations to wear masks.

Not to mention the very strange press conference from where they announced a bridge over the Vistula that was announced two years ago... and there's still no sign of construction.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Nope, not in the slightest, especially given how pathetic the support has been for people in general.

Final total: 1 622 868 signatures.

BTW, some analysis suggests that Małopolskie is much closer than the polls suggest. If it's true, there could be a tremendous shock on the cards.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


17th June, apparently. Dangerous time for Duda, because not only is Bosak fighting for 3rd place (and thus will seek to portray Duda as a weak conservative yet again), but he's also got to deal with WKK and especially Hołownia - who arguably won the last debate.

Even if Duda tries to stress that they're giving 500zł in holiday vouchers, it'll just leave him open to attacks over the fact that they originally promised 1000zł to every worker.

Don't forget Tanajno - who will almost certainly make reference to "Duda's police thugs brutalising citizens".

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


One can only wonder where Spike gets his information, given that almost all polls show the race to be very close.


1.2m signatures in 5 days. Duda needed 5 weeks to get 1.5m signatures.

There's absolutely no doubt here that PiS made a huge blunder in rejecting the Senate's proposal for a 10 day period for collecting signatures.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

One million signatures for Trzaskowski and counting. Duda managed to get 1.5m in 5 weeks, so for Trzaskowski to get 1m in 4 days is astonishing.

TVP is attacking Trzaskowski non-stop, which is a sign of just how dangerous they consider him.

Classifieds / Business Partner / Fixer required in Poland [5]

There are companies which offer 'white label' warehousing solutions - they look after everything for you, and you just pay them once a month.

If you want to open your own warehouse, then a good start is to have a chat with someone in Poland about labour law.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Something critical: 12 mines will suspend production for 3 weeks. It's a dangerous move politically.

Furthermore, Duda has lost the support of the Lower Silesian "Bezpartyni Samorządowców" - which means a potential loss of 100-150,000 votes in the province.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

142,000 signatures in Wielkopolska alone for Trzaskowski. It looks like PiS achieved the 'Streisand Effect' by having such a short period for collecting signatures - what was designed to hinder Trzaskowski has turned into a huge boost for his campaign.

For me, the most interesting thing right now is watching the demise of the Hołownia campaign. People were behind him as something 'different' in politics, but it seems that his support evaporated as soon as it came up against a professional campaign.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


What makes you so confident? Presidential elections are a lottery, and Duda 's lead in the 2nd round is within the margin of error. There is talk of the turnout being in the 65% range, which makes things even more unpredictable.


Something that is laughably absent from PiS.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It's a good question. Szydło, despite being a highly irritating person at the best of times, put together a fantastic campaign for Duda then. This time round, it seems that he's in the same muddle that Komorowski was in then - he's preaching to the converted, while pissing off people in a variety of ways. The latest bonehead move seemingly invited inviting people to come from 100km away to some campaign event rather than locals, which makes no sense.

Some of


I do wonder, you know. Kaczyński's entire political career has been full of very strange moves, and deliberately sabotaging Duda's campaign would be nothing unusual for him in the grand scheme of things. On the other hand, Duda losing to Trzaskowski would be the worst possible outcome, because they would find it nearly impossible to overturn the veto. As far as I can count, KO+Lewica+MN have the ability to block overturning the veto without even relying on the PSL or Konfederacja.

There is a possibility that Kaczyński is thinking along the lines of deliberately losing the election, then calling a snap election where Gowin's mob is given a simple choice to either join PIS or be thrown out of the lists. The idea would be to gamble that they could win a bigger majority (perhaps with Konfederacja) to then be able to overturn the Presidential veto and turn things back in their favour.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

One thing is becoming very clear to me: Trzaskowski is very cleverly planning his campaign trail. He's turning up in many places that are important for 21st century Poland, such as in Łopuszna (where ks. Tischner lived) - but also the very heart of PiS country.

Duda is making the exact same mistake as Komorowski made - he's sticking to rallies where he has huge amount of support and ignoring the swing areas.

Study / School meals in Poland [145]


Yes, I agree with this. Did you read the link that Lenka posted? It's about making the food visually attractive, something that really doesn't take that much effort. I don't think there's a need to preach or anything, it's enough to just serve up something that looks great.

I'm posting some more pictures, just for discussion. I also found this: sp34kat.pl/obiady.php# - which contains examples of meals served to kids in some school. For me, it's frightening as to how much fried food they're being served, as well as just how little vegetables there are. Atch will have a heart attack when she looks at this link ;)


I think this is part of the issue - many people simply don't know how to create decent veggie food. I've been experimenting a lot with tofu recently, and I've discovered one fantastic recipe involving baked tofu - if you didn't know what you were looking at, you'd think it was baked chicken nuggets. The taste is a bit specific, but if you make tomato sauce from real tomatoes, it goes perfectly with it, and I dare say kids would eat it.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Some polls:

Duda 42.7%
Trzaskowski 26,6%
Holownia 7,7%
K-Kamysz 7,4%
Bosak 6,9%
Biedroń 3,4%

==

Duda 43.1%
Trzaskowski 25.3%
Holownia 14.4%
Bosak 7,4%
K.Kamysz 6,8%
Biedroń 2.6%

Second round:

Duda: 51.1%
Trzaskowski: 48.9%

Duda: 50.4%
Hołownia: 48.9%

Duda: 50.9%
K.Kamysz 48.9%

Also, one electoral forecast has been published here - twitter.com/PersElection/status/1269330843673255937/photo/1 - showing a suggested path to victory for Trzaskowski. It raises some questions;

- Can Trzaskowski limit his losses in małopolska? He's not going to win there, but based on previous elections, he needs in excess of 40% to have a chance of winning overall. It's worth pointing out that this is a pretty big province in terms of number of electors - hence anything less than 40% means he loses there.

- Śląskie will be a huge battleground. The locals are furious over the abuse that they're getting over coronavirus outbreaks there, but Trzaskowski needs at least 53-54% to win the election. There is gossip that Trzaskowski collected 100,000 signatures in Śląskie alone, which if true, could be a sign of anger among Silesians.

- If mazowieckie can be turned orange, then it can compensate for losses further to the east.

There's also something else: for Duda, he should stop focusing on Eastern Poland and start focusing on limiting the damage in wielkopolskie and dolnośląskie. If he can push Trzaskowski towards a draw in dolnośląskie, he wins the election comfortably.

Still, the most important thing is that neither Trzaskowski nor Duda have landed any knockout blows over the last few days. Duda isn't slipping below 40%, nor is Trzaskowski getting above 30%.

Study / School meals in Poland [145]


You might have seen it, but one curse for me is the way that there's a ridiculous culture of adding sugar to things like tea. I had a monumental row a few years ago over this, and the idiot working in the kitchen at the time simply couldn't understand why it was wrong to do it. I got my way, but only after pointing out that nowhere had the parents consented to sugar being added in the first place. And then the idiot wanted to give the kids sugar so they could do it themselves!

The salt part is also totally unacceptable - there's so many other things you can use to flavour food, though IMO, much of the overuse of salt is to disguise poor quality ingredients more than anything else.


I've seen this article before, and I think it's a great example of what can be done with some effort. It's not rocket science, and schools don't have to use expensive ingredients, but there needs to be will on the part of schools to actually do something.

Looking for some pictures now of school dinners to illustrate this thread...

If anyone has a GW subscription, there's a good article here - krakow.wyborcza.pl/krakow/7,44425,22807993,uczniowie-w-krakowskich-szkolach-jedza-tlusto-slono-i-szybko.html - it turned out that in Kraków a couple of years ago, they investigated dinners and found that they were full of salt and fat.

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Study / School meals in Poland [145]


I think so too. I've read a lot about the topic in Poland, and there's a recurring theme where outsourced catering results in a race to the bottom in terms of food quality. It seems that where schools have retained their own kitchens (or where the local council have got their act together), the quality is a lot higher and for the same price. I spoke to one school director about it a couple of years ago, and she said that they were given a simple choice by Sanepid - either update the kitchen facilities, or stop cooking on site. They obviously didn't have the money to bring the kitchen up to standard, so that was that.


Good question - I chose a random example from a random very average (i.e. not wealthy) town - Doncaster. They have a centralised catering service that supplies public schools, and the cost of the school dinner is about 2.50 pounds - or roughly 12.50zł.

From what I can see, they have a system where kids can choose sides, desserts and salad as they wish to go with the main courses.

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Study / School meals in Poland [145]

Completely agreed with everything that you've said there, Atch. What's concerning is that on at least three days, they're also using sauces with the main courses, probably to disguise the very poor quality meat used. It's a common trick with school catering services.

It would be interesting to know just how much salt and sugar is added here.

Lenka - I checked, it's provided by a catering company. That means that it's probably sitting around for several hours before being delivered, often in large plastic or polystyrene containers.

One other thing that I can't figure out in Poland - why is the lunch break hurried so much, especially for younger children?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll:

Duda: 41%
Trzaskowski: 29%
Hołownia: 13%
Bosak: 6%
K. Kamysz - 5%

And now #chamskahołota is the hashtag of the day. Twitter is full of PiS trolls trying to defend Kaczyński, but it's clear that his rude and arrogant outburst yesterday is more fuel for the opposition. Are PiS really trying to throw this election away?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll.

Duda: 40%
Trzaskowski: 28%
Hołownia: 14%
Bosak: 7%
K.Kamysz: 6%
Biedroń: 4%

Trzaskowski is inching towards the 30% barrier, while Duda seems to be mired in the 39-42% range. Hołownia at this point needs something else - but then again, the gossip about KO supporting him to become an independent president of Warsaw in exchange for his support won't go away.

IMO, I expect a big bombshell promise from Duda before the 1st round.

Law / Father died in Poland, I live in Canada, how do I proceed with the will and inherited debt? [6]


Did you get any formal documents, or was it just information? You don't have to do anything until you actually receive documentation from the court.


Hold off for now (until you get formal documents) - but I would recommend rather finding a local lawyer in Poland who knows the court handling the case.

Life / Babcia or Busha - any social class difference? [359]


No she wasn't. She was born in Russia.


Unfortunate.

Law / Father died in Poland, I live in Canada, how do I proceed with the will and inherited debt? [6]

Generally speaking, do nothing until you're contacted directly about it.

When you are contacted, it's worth spending a few hundred złoty to get a lawyer to submit the formal rejection of inheritance for you, just to avoid any and all problems associated with it.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Some data is coming in about production.

Upper Silesia - production down by 40%, with automotive production down by 90%.
Lower Silesia - production down by 32%

Real unemployment stands at over 10% now.

Both Upper and Lower Silesia are battlegrounds in this election.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Why does a civil servant need a half million złoty luxury car? Could they not use a normal car?


What about the 2.5bn stolen by GetBack? Do I need to remind you how GetBack sponsored lavish PiS events?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Ah yes, you're referring to how during Lech Kaczyński's time, he oversaw the mass dumping of sewage into the river, aren't you? You're right, that was indeed an ecological disaster.


Quite, I don't think anyone can quite believe the astronomical sums given to Szumowski's wife and brother. How much is the latest total? 200m?

Or perhaps you prefer the way that Sadurska immediately got given the sole use of a luxury car worth half a million złoty as soon as she became the head of Duda's chancellery? I mean, her predecessor had a 10 year old Skoda...

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Remind us who swore in (as a judge to the Constitutional Tribunal) an ex-Communist prosecutor who was awarded a gold medal for his services during martial law?