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What should Poland do with the problem of Belarus? [1800]
a lot of Belorussians had been just put off by Lukashenkos latest election fraud...he must have overestimated his people's humour...
Stupidity and hubris.... had he faked a 52 % or so win a lot of people would be angry and there would be some protests probably but they would die down. Had he been really smart (since Belarus has a 'first past the post' system) he'd have faked a result where he had 47 or so percent, not a majority but more than anyone else.
But he's fixated on the 80% number (some early election which he probably did win by that margin)
Every population has their breaking point and he found the Belarusian breaking point. I'm sure he has some level of support (around 40 percent or so judging from several sources) but he humiliated the public.
The younger generation is a lot more western (in general) leaning than the older Russian leaning population so if he manages to hold on to power then Poland might reap the benefit of a non-trivial number of smart young Belarusians (unless there's a crackdown on the border which I can see a Soviet fossil like Lukaszenka going for).