News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Morawiecki turned up today in Poznań, and what's remarkable is just how few people turned up. I would have expected much, much more for an appearance by the PM, even in Poznań.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Not a clue actually, I'll have a look and see if I can find something.

Latest news is that PiS are planning to hold an electoral convention tomorrow where Kaczyński (!) will talk about youth issues. Hołownia has ridiculed it already by comparing it to the PRL, and it seems to be an act of desperation on the part of PiS. There's gossip that they'll present a major new legislative initative, which I reckon will be the extension of 500+ to students.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Palade counts the latest 2nd round (without new voters) as:

Duda: 8,689,000
Trzaskowski: 8,676,000

Duda is losing ground, this much is clear. The only question is - how much?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll.

Duda: 41.38%
Trzaskowski: 29.86%
Hołownia: 11.18%
Bosak: 7.34%
K-Kamysz; 6.55%
Biedroń: 2.93%

Second round:

Duda: 51%
Trzaskowski: 49%

Hołownia: 52%
Duda: 48%

Duda: 50%
K-Kamysz: 50%

Duda: 58%
Bosak: 42%

Duda: 56%
Biedroń: 44%

Trzaskowski will be in Warsaw tomorrow to coordinate a response to the flooding there. I fully expect Trzaskowski to make huge political capital out of the fact that Duda will be in the US while he's on the ground dealing with a natural disaster.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


That would almost certainly result in widespread revulsion against Duda for using such a thing. Voters would never support such a dirty allegation, and it would scream of absolute desperation on the part of PiS.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It's a huge question. The big difference now is that it's much easier to fact check stuff online, and also, Duda's attacks are seemingly doing nothing to endear him to undecided voters.

I fully expect them to try and smear Trzaskowski with some terrible accusations in the 2nd round if the first round goes badly for Duda (i.e. worse than 40%).

Study / School meals in Poland [145]


I'd be inclined to give it to them at the first break, but you're right, some kids start later. Meh, no good answer that would cater for everyone :)


From the school I work in, I'd estimate that a lot of food gets wasted as well. I had one chat with a parent about it, and his exact words - "we eat food from around the world, yet my child goes to school and the only thing on offer is bland, tasteless rubbish".

Life / Poles speaking English - examples [245]


Agata Duda's body language is by far the most interesting!

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Marcin Palade predicts the following:

Duda: 40,0% - 44,0%
Trzaskowski: 28,1% - 31,1%
Hołownia: 8,8% - 10,8%
Bosak: 6,6% - 8,6%
K-Kamysz: 5,9% - 7,9%
Biedroń: 2,1% - 4,1%

44-28 would almost certainly give Duda victory. 40-31 on the other hand would put Duda into full on panic mode.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another forecast, this time from Daniel Pers.

Duda: 40.6%
Trzaskowski: 30.1%
Hołownia: 10%
K-Kamysz: 7.2%
Bosak: 7.2%
Biedroń: 3.4%

His province-by-province forecast is here: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VFcDX/5/

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll.

First round:

Duda: 41.5%
Trzaskowski: 28.3%
Hołownia: 8.6%
K-Kamysz: 8%
Bosak: 5.4%
Biedroń: 2.2%

Second round:

Trzaskowski: 46.9%
Duda; 45.8%
Undecided: 4.4%
Won't vote (if those two make it to the second round): 3%

Two main stories here.

1) Duda and Trzaskowski aren't moving. Duda isn't shifting from 40-42%, nor is Trzaskowski moving from 28-30%, suggesting that voters have largely made up their minds. It's also clear that Palade's projection that the 'new' voters in the 2nd round will decide things is pretty reliable, and based on 2015's results, Trzaskowski needs to defeat Duda among new voters by a score of 60-40% in order to secure victory.

2) The battle for 3rd place is still not decided. Bosak would appear to be slipping, but I think there's not much between him, Hołownia and WKK.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Marcin Palade's latest forecasts:

First round:

Duda 42.7%
Trzaskowski 29.1%
Hołownia 9.3%
Bosak 7.9%
Kosiniak-Kamysz 6.7%
Biedroń 3.2%

Second round: includes Polonia and those who voted for a different candidate in the first round, does *not* include new voters.

Duda 8,832,000 (50.9%)
Trzaskowski 8,529,000 (49.1%)

==

If we assume that Palade is accurate, then Duda has a slight advantage. The number that I've been stating all along - 42% - appears to be the magic number in the 1st round. Right now, PiS appear to be making mistake after mistake, and Duda's campaign has completely stalled. Even the attempts to smear Trzaskowski as a liar were very quickly met with a list of Duda's broken promises, and it seems that every attack by Duda is hurting him more than helping him

Work / Hands-on agricultural jobs in Poland? [20]


I can't find the article now, but I found an article by one moaning farmer who was complaining that workers these days expect reasonable accommodation and three decent meals a day as well as a reasonable amount of money. Apparently 'in the good old days', it was enough to give them a mattress in the barn and some very basic food.

Life / Is Polish church involved in politics too much? [124]


Terlikowski has been more and more outspoken about the path that the church is taking, and I think he's right. It's very clear that the church will lose any sort of moral authority if they become nothing more than the religious wing of PiS, just as Solidarność lost all credibility as they turned a blind eye to widespread labour abuses in state-owned companies and other institutions.

I can conceivably see a situation in a few years where the only people attending church services and sending kids to religion classes are those that support PiS. Not a good situation, as it leads directly to what happened in Spain and Ireland.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Brudziński, easily.

Anyway, another day, another embarrassing situation from PiS. Now they're promising a fire engine to the commune (Maf, good translation?) in each province that has the highest turnout at the election. Of course, only those with under 20,000 residents.

I can't even begin to express how stupid and idiotic this is.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It is a big failing of his. Still, given his fairness in general, I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.

polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1960778,1,stanley-dla-polityki-w-drugiej-turze-trzaskowski-juz-remisuje-z-duda.read - Stanley is pretty reliable as well, and he's always open to explaining to interested people how he got those numbers.

I think one thing that you need to take into account here - Trzaskowski's campaign got off to a flying start, and he's been very careful not to make mistakes where PiS could sink him. His public appearances are confident and he hasn't lost control, while he's also ridiculing TVP on a daily basis for their clumsy attempts to smear him. On the other hand, Duda's appearances have been chaotic - his supporters are seen to attack people, Duda seems wild and uncontrolled, and he's completely ignoring the press while jumping from topic to topic.

wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polityka/Wybory-prezydenckie-2020/Krzysztof-Bosak-jestem-pewien-ze-wsrod-wyborcow-Konfederacji-sa-homoseksualisci-WYWIAD

Worth reading. Bosak makes it crystal clear that if he doesn't enter the 2nd round, then he won't endorse anyone and will leave the decision to Konfederacja's electorate to decide based on their own feelings. He also makes it clear that Wilk's recent words about supporting Trzaskowski express just how annoyed people are in the "authentic right" with PiS.

It seems to me that more than ever, PiS made a huge mistake in assuming that Konfederacja would automatically support them in the culture war.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


No argument there. It's probably one of the best sources of information in Poland.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1273698159617814530 might explain it. For comparison, Duda's transfers: twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1273697335609090049/ and those who will abstain: twitter.com/MarcinPalade/status/1273698861765267456

Palade sympathises with PiS, so take that into account. Bosak is potentially the kingmaker in the 2nd round, but I just cannot see any advantage for him in endorsing anyone. On a personal level, Konfederacja are also being accused of being PO stooges online by Duda supporters...


Sure, it's a textbook example of how a candidate facing re-election can crash from a great height as a result of a very poor campaign.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

And suddenly TVP are giving Bosak plenty of attention. Is their internal polling suggesting that Duda loses without his endorsement?

And another poll.

Duda: 41.3%
Trzaskowski: 28.2%
K-Kamysz: 8.3%
Hołownia: 8.1%
Bosak: 4.8%
Biedroń; 3.8%

If we take this poll at face value, then it means that Duda has taken some support away from Bosak. I don't believe so, although it is possible that some voters have switched in order to preserve Duda's lead.


...I've never voted for anyone other than the Scottish National Party in the UK in my life, and I'm a member of the both the SNP and Òmnium Cultural in Catalonia.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Of course they're talking, all parties talk to each other.

It's always possible that Konfederacja will do a deal to endorse Duda in exchange for something - anything is possible in politics.

But again, do you see Bosak being dumb enough to endorse Duda without having the concessions in place first? Konfederacja have been cheated by PiS on numerous occasions, so why would they trust them?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

I completely agree with you. It's worth adding that for Duda, Konfederacja supporters staying at home is effectively a vote against him.

One scenario that keeps being mentioned is that for Konfederacja, there's nothing to gain from Duda as President. If he loses, PiS will find it difficult to govern, and they might prefer to call fresh elections to try and achieve two aims. The first aim would be to try and regain the Senate, and the second would be to try and gain enough seats with Konfederacja to overturn the veto.

In this scenario, Konfederacja would be major winners. They could dictate key policy points to PiS without having to govern, all for agreeing to overturn presidential vetoes.

Of course, PiS could lose parliamentary elections, but Konfederacja are predicted to gain around 20 seats in any fresh election, so it's a win for them regardless.

If Duda wins, what do they get? Almost nothing. PiS have no intention of carrying out their policies, and they could easily fizzle out after 3.5 years as a small party, just as K'15, Ruch Palikota and others did.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Marcin Palade is giving Duda a lead of only 108,000 votes among "old" voters in the second round.

This means that Trzaskowski has (on the basis of the 2015 election) has to gain 5.1% more "new" votes than Duda to win, or realistically, he has to win 52.6-47.4% among those new voters.

What's crucial: Bosak's electorate according to Palade is split three ways. They're going 38-34% in favour of Trzaskowski with the rest abstaining - a terrible result for Duda. It seems that the plan to pick up Bosak's electorate has backfired very badly.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Looking around, it's clear that Duda's campaign is faltering. There's a lot of critical opinions across the political spectrum for the mess that was the debate last night, but perhaps more importantly, even with three out of the five questions being related directly to Duda's campaign, he really struggled. He's alienating voters in the centre, and "too much" is being thrown around a lot.

Part of me wonders if this isn't Kurski's revenge for Duda getting rid of him a couple of months ago.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

More polls coming in.

First one relates to the 2nd round:

Duda: 45%
Trzaskowski: 43%
Undecided: 8%
Won't vote: 4%

Duda: 44%
Hołownia: 44%
Undecided: 7%
Won't vote: 5%

Duda: 44%
K-Kamysz: 42%
Undecided: 9%
Won't vote: 5%

Duda: 45%
Biedroń: 39%
Hard to say: 9%
Won't vote: 7%

Duda: 40%
Bosak: 33%
Hard to say: 13%
Won't vote: 14%

==

Duda: 40%
Trzaskowski: 32%
Hołownia: 10%
Bosak: 7%
K-Kamysz: 3%
Biedroń: 2%
Don't know: 6%

Second round:

Duda: 48%
Trzaskowski: 48%

==

Duda: 40.82%
Trzaskowski: 30.28%
Hołownia: 11.74%
Bosak: 6.24%
K-Kamysz: 6.06%
Biedroń: 3.28%

==

This visit of Duda to the US before the first round is probably going to be the last throw of the dice for him. The question is - how much will he lose by sitting on a plane for ~20 hours unable to campaign effectively vs how much will he gain from meeting Trump?

There's so much about this election that's unpredictable that I really wouldn't like to call it one way or another. About the only thing that I think is safe to predict is that Duda is going to have a terrible result among young people.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

IPSOS, who got the exit poll almost perfect last year, predicts the following movement of voters in the 2nd round:

Duda:
10% Lewica
19% PSL
33% Konfederacja

Trzaskowski:
89% Lewica
61% PSL
42% Konfederacja

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

I'd rather not - because it just ends up as elsewhere where everyone gets hung up on whoever commissioned the poll. But I'm not posting any dodgy polls by completely unknown sources (like a certain Twitter account right now that appears to be posting ridiculous polls without any sourcing), and when a poll comes across as being nonsense, I'm posting them with disclaimers.

In terms of political scientists, I'm following Marcin Palade, Daniel Pers and Ben Stanley. If you know any decent Konfederacja-leaning political scientist, let me know and I'll post interesting things from them as well.


I wouldn't want to bet any money on this election. There's just way too many variables to take into account, and I think anything could still happen. The only thing that I'm certain of is that Duda's campaign is lifeless and comes across as chaotic, whereas Trzaskowski and Bosak appear to have a plan and they're sticking to it. Bosak in particular appears to be quietly picking up steam, and I could see him taking 2nd place among people aged 18-29.

WKK and Hołownia also appear to have really nothing to say and it shows.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Might not be that easy for him. There's another poll today:

Duda 40%
Trzaskowski 30%
Hołownia 10%
Bosak 7%
K-Kamysz 4%
Biedroń 2%

Among determined voters:

Duda 43%
Trzaskowski 32%
Hołownia 11%
Bosak 7%
K-Kamysz 4%
Biedroń 2%

And another poll that I missed. It's quite out of date though, as it was carried out between the 5-10 June but only published today.

Duda: 38%
Trzaskowski: 27%
Hołownia: 8%
Bosak: 6%
K-Kamysz: 6%
Biedroń: 4%

Second round:

Duda: 41%
Trzaskowski: 43%

Duda: 41%
Hołownia: 43%

And now the stories keep on coming. TVP Info cancelled a Twitter poll because of alleged bot interference, but the poll showed Trzaskowski winning comfortably. Things like this will be compared to the Trójka situation, even if it's true.

Anyway, Bosak came across weaker than last time tonight. He was seen to be constantly looking at his notes, even during the final 'free speech' segment - which suggests that he hasn't prepared himself well. I doubt it'll hurt him, but it shows his lack of political experience at this sort of level.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Actually, I'm surprised by the coronavirus question. It gave Trzaskowski the chance to remind viewers that PiS gave 2bn to TVP and nothing to cancer patients, while Duda made a huge tactical mistake by promising a free vaccine to only senior citizens. It raises the prospect that PiS won't fund the vaccine for younger people, which could frighten centrist voters who want to get vaccinated and back to normal life ASAP.

IMO, the most telling thing about this debate has been Duda's inability to sympathise with people. He didn't apologise to Biedroń, he didn't show any compassion for those who lost their jobs/livelihoods over the last few months, he didn't extend an olive branch to Silesians, nothing.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

The debate is a complete waste of time so far. The questions being asked have really no relation to what's going on in the real world and are obviously designed to do nothing more than hit Trzaskowski while promoting Duda among people who will vote for Duda anyway. Obviously Trzaskowski isn't falling for it, and Bosak is busy pointing out that these questions are irrelevant and part of a pathetic game.

Edit: Biedroń might just have dragged Duda into a no-win situation. He's demanding an apology from Duda, and if Duda doesn't give it tonight, he's going to come across as unsympathetic. That could cost him among female voters in particular...

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Some interesting analysis:

If you don't include "new" voters in the second round, Duda wins 51.4% to 48.6% against Trzaskowski.

However, if the new voters break 60-40% in favour of Trzaskowski, the second round is a draw. It seems now that the second round campaign will be critical, hence why Duda hasn't made any promises as he'll need to keep them in reserve.

Some suggestions coming through that Duda will take up to 2% of Bosak's declared support in the first round as well, which seems credible.

From another political scientist:

Duda: 41.2%
Trzaskowski: 30.1%
Hołowina: 10.2%