News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Marcin Palade has updated his ranges for the 2nd round, and it's not good reading for Duda.

Trzaskowski 49.3% - 51.7% (50.5%)
Duda 48.3% - 50.7% (49.5%)

But, and this is a major but. We still don't know what will happen with the votes to other candidates. If Hołownia and WKK's electorate decide that there's no point voting, Duda could snatch this in the first round.

Also, Daniel Pers has updated his map: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/VFcDX/6/

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I'm quite convinced that Maf's theory is right - that Duda was promised a meeting in exchange for shutting up about the LGBT stuff, but the Americans used it as a perfect opportunity to rope the Poles into agreeing to buying vaccines and nuclear technology from them on a preferential basis.

Wouldn't shock me if the Polish delegation knew nothing about it until they turned up.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

I have to say, I have some respect for Trump after this. He totally made Duda and the delegation look like idiots, as he got what he wanted (a chance to push his narrative) while giving almost nothing away.

For what it's worth, the visit appears to have been largely ignored in the US.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Yet American nuclear technology is expensive (look at the way that costs completely spiralled out of control in the US) and not necessarily the best technology available. The South Koreans have developed much cheaper reactors, so shouldn't we be talking to them, as well as others?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I think a lot of them really have a tenacious (at best) grasp of most things political. They see someone sign a paper and they think that it somehow means an important project, when the devil is really in the details.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Specifics, Spike, specifics. We could sign the same 'deal' tomorrow with France or Russia, it still doesn't mean anything in the context of a reactor actually being built.

Language / Am I the only person that can't sing in Polish at all? [48]

Oh no, Maf, come on. You must listen to the chorus ;)

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Imagine flying all the way to the US and back just to get offered the chance to buy a vaccine if and when it gets developed :D

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I haven't used cash for anything since the beginning of March. Even in the supermarkets, I'm using Czech korona coins to get trollies, because I just don't have any złoty in cash at all.

History / Eligiusz Niewiadomski assassinated the first Polish President [23]


I think it would have. Narutowicz would have probably ended up failing under the pressure, and I don't see a scenario in which Poland suddenly becomes governable and the circumstances of the May Coup don't occur. Piłsudski would always have been the elephant in the corner, I think, and people were always looking at him for the answers.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It can be if it's done properly and with minimal bureaucracy, but the devil is in the detail. It could easily backfire though, as people are quite hostile towards property developers who would gain massively from this.

Language / Am I the only person that can't sing in Polish at all? [48]

Me, me!

I present to you...Myslovitz.

Original - Długość dźwięku samotności - one of the best Polish songs IMO: youtube.com/watch?v=qCIyK3ec4kE

English version: Sound of Solitude - ouch. youtube.com/watch?v=XdmbuDD2hEE

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I wouldn't like to bet on this election either way right now. PiS will throw something major at the wall between this Sunday and the 12th June, but whether it sticks or not is another question.

My bet is that we're going to see a major cash giveaway to people aged 18-30, possibly even something really major like "deposit for the first property".

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It's pretty much the sign of desperation on their part. Duda is now coming 4th among young people, and it's clear that the internet-savvy generation can see through these lies almost instantly.

News / Tesco abandon Poland [66]

Tesco in CEE is nothing like Tesco in the UK. Even the product ranges are specifically for the CEE market.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I heard that christianpaul.pl has some excellent designs.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

And now the polls will come thick and fast:

Duda: 41.27%
Trzaskowski: 30.30%
Hołowina: 10.74%
Bosak: 7.23%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 5.81%
Biedroń: 3.35%

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Latest forecast by Daniel Pers:

Duda: 39.9%
Trzaskowski: 30.5%
Hołowina: 10.1%
Bosak: 7.5%
K-Kamysz: 7%
Biedroń: 3.5%

The danger for Duda right now isn't Trzaskowski, but the other candidates. All of them are attacking Duda on specific issues that can cost Duda a couple of percent, which could be vital.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


If he loses, this will be the pivotal moment. He needed a big win to show that he was a big time player, and the establishment of an American base would have been a big deal for some undecided voters.

Just... How do you give up two crucial campaign days for that?

History / Life in Poland in 1800-1900 [18]


Ziemowit, thank you for that! I never thought to check such a thing when I was hunting for historical pictures of Poland's borders :) I've just found some pictures that I've never seen before, and it looks like this will be a real goldmine!

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I have to say it - Trump won big here. He hit all his talking points (Merkel bad, Biden bad, Troops home, Poland great, wink wink Polonia) without conceding anything to Duda except a vague promise of help with nuclear power (a standing joke in Polish politics) and a promise that Poland could buy an American coronavirus vaccine.

Duda lost massively. He was supposed to come home with a signed agreement to bring American troops to Poland, one that would allow him to hold a campaign rally holding the agreement high. Instead, there's nothing.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Oh my... I don't quite believe this. Has Duda really just given up a crucial part of the campaign to receive nothing?

This is unbelievable. Everyone expected Duda to go there to get a firm commitment that American troops would be sent to Poland, but...he got nothing but vague promises about cooperation. Trump has just used Duda for a press conference to attack Germany and Biden, while the discussions seemed to have revolved around the nuclear power fantasy and a coronavirus vaccine.

I'm in shock. This is a major, major fail. **** me.

Edit: Wow. Trump has only promised one thing - that Poland will receive the coronavirus vaccine as soon as America has one. Not exactly a big deal, and potentially dangerous talk for Duda - anti-vaxxers are lunatics, and if they get the impression that Duda will introduce mandatory vaccines for coronavirus, they're going to abstain (at best) in the 2nd round.

I'm absolutely speechless.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

There's a very, very clear panic going on in PiS right now. Younger voters are clearly beginning to mobilise against Duda, and it looks like Duda might not even finish in the top 3 among voters aged 18-29.

Oh, and LOL:

twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1275871808261107712

Trump couldn't even get the name of the party right :D

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Certainly a brave prediction, given that Duda's lead in the 2nd round is withering.

As for him being a liar, I think we could list all the broken promises that Duda made, don't you think?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It is really, really strange. It hurts Duda among young people, yet it doesn't gain him any support among older voters. Why do it?

If I didn't know any better, I'd suggest that Kurski is wrecking Duda's campaign in revenge.


I'm surprised you've got him so low - I think there's signs of Bosak voters hesitating at the last second and switching to Duda, so I'm giving him 43-43.5% tonight. I'll judge again tomorrow, but IMO, Duda will do better than expected in the first round.

History / Poland must get back Lwow, Wilno and Brest back [318]

Would you support a 'solidarity tax' to pay for the reunification?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll.

First round:

Duda: 40%
Trzaskowski: 27%
Hołownia: 10%
Bosak: 7%
K-Kamysz: 5%
Biedroń: 4%
Witkowski: 1%
Hard to say: 4%

==

Second round:

Trzaskowski: 47%
Duda: 43%
Hard to say/won't vote: 9%

Hołownia: 49%
Duda: 44%
4% won't vote
3% undecided

The big thing from this poll: Trzaskowski and Duda are supported by men almost equally (44% Duda, 43% Trzaskowski), but by women, Trzaskowski defeats Duda 51-43%

Duda is also starting to lose support in smaller towns (up to 20,000 people - the 'fire engine' town) - he's gone from 61% to 51% support in a week.

Also of note: Bosak is projected to take 2nd place among young people, while Duda will be 4th.

==

As an aside, are we all making predictions tomorrow as to the first round result before electoral silence starts?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll:

First round:

Duda: 43.1%
Trzaskowski: 27.4%
Hołownia: 10.1%
K-Kamysz: 7.5%
Bosak: 6.2%
Biedroń: 4.5%

Second round:

Trzaskowski: 46%
Duda: 45%

The key takeaway here is that Duda is struggling to find votes in the 2nd round. It would appear that some Bosak voters switched to Duda at the last minute (again, we saw the same in the European elections).

This poll is also devastating for Duda in terms of voter flow. He can only count on 7% of the vote from Hołownia and 9% from K-Kamysz, while he would get nothing from Biedroń supporters and only 23% from Bosak.

USA, Canada / What do Poles think about drinking raw milk? In America, unpasteurized milk is PROHIBITED. [49]

There's a company that delivers 5L of it to our door for 20zł, it's a very agreeable price.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


To be honest, Duda is parodying himself now. The latest disgrace involves disabled children being forced to meet Duda so he could use them for PR purposes.