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Poland and Russia in military alliance - Is that even possible? At least temporary? [69]
At the beginning Poland needs to work on the Visegrad group and get some additional countries to join.
Visegrad Group is vital for the survivor of Poland.
On the short run, this with Ukraine greatly complicate situation because negotiations of Visegrad Group with Ukraine went hand in hand with talks with Serbia (and via Serbia with Montenegro). Interests of Poland was to that way secure access to the warm seas (waters), what is, as we all know, primordial condition when one regional country have plans to become bigger factor. You would note that, speaking of region, in case with Croatia, Poland can`t expect to achieve political and military points. Its German zone of control and Poland needs to hold her fingers far from political and military influence there. Only touristic interests of Poland could be eventually satisfied in Croatia, nothing else. Be advised, traditionally, whenever Poland wanted to rise her head, no matter being under the pressure of Russia or from the west of Europe, Poland relied on Serbia. Its old strategic partnership and goes deep in past, what i know, since time immemorial. It goes from time when ancient Polish warlords wanted to secure transport of amber trade from Baltic to Mediterranean via Balkan, all the way to the situation when Serbs played role of the military elite in Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
In any case, on the example of Ukraine we see how interests of Poland and EU/NATO leading powers differ. Where Poland needed peace, west of Europe and USA needed troubles. Old regime of Ukraine was maybe slower in internal reforms of the country but politically was more balanced between Poland and Russia. Russia tolerated formation of joint Polish-Ukrainian military force UKRPOLBAT, what on the other side wasn `t under direct NATO jurisdiction and NATO didn`t like it. When Ukraine was destabilized as country, official Kiev stooped to balance between Poland and Russia and simple fall under direct control of Germany, USA, Britain and France. Poland was automatically out of the game. Think about it.
But, on the long run, we now have clear situation. If we presume that one day Visegrad Group could turn to be new Commonwealth, Crimea in Ukraine and all regions along Ukrainian Black See coast, populated with Russian and strongly pro-Russian population, could represent main obstacle in Russian opposition to the formation of Commonwealth around Poland, from countries that exist between Russia and west of Europe, from Baltic to Balkan and Black see. See, NATO/EU pressure on Ukraine may result in situation, ironically, that on the long run, Russia (after completely satisfied with situation in Ukraine) has even greater interests to support strengthening of Poland.
In any case, i am absolutely sure, situation in Ukraine, definitely and once and for all, shows Serbia as primary Poland`s partner on the Polish way to become European power thru transformation of Visegrad Group into the embryo of new Commonwealth. Serbia (via other Serbian land- Montenegro) has direct access to the Mediterranean warm waters.
Now, let us also don`t forget Bulgaria. Way to Bulgaria, strategically and geographically also goes via Serbia. So, i expect that in days that coming, let`s say very soon, Poland start more and more to invest in Serbia and Bulgaria and to talk about those two countries in its mass media. That, if there is at least little fire of independence still live in Polish intelligentsia, elite and politics.
