World has gone mad.
It's what I think, and many other people...
But my friend - who's much more knowledgeable on the subject - continues to make fun of me. Telling me, "You called the last 46 recessions correctly".
Yes... I'm a bear. And us bears, we have been fighting an unfair fight - against Powell, Yellen, Bessent, and the rest - where the government drops trillions of dollars from the sky during CoVid and its aftermath.
Any bear would die fighting against those kinda odds.
But sooner or later - us bears will have our day, when all our concerns will finally manifest.
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My friend has answers to all the questions however:
1) AI Boom - a true boom, mostly of a real estate nature. Driving semiconductors, steel, concrete, cement, energy, and property.
2) Problems of the "Poors" - Who cares about the poor. The US stock market and economy has become completely disconnected from the poor (this is what he tells me). If they can't pay for their car loans, or default on their mortgages - it doesn't matter. It's not 2008. The rich drive the economy forward, and the poor are just an unnecessary appendix. If they all died tomorrow - nothing would change.
Even McDonald's no longer depends on the low income folks for its revenues.
3) Debt - just a number.
4) Inflation - tail of tariff wars, otherwise would be zero
5) Tariffs - have you seen the tremendous amount of receipts Trump is collecting?
And so on, and so forth...
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I still think we are all f*cked, but most of my friends think the gravy train will keep chugging along.