Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates

@lenka me too, but its getting late here .
interesting rumours surfacing today that Trashkowski top security advisor is the former head of Służba Kontrwywiadu Wojskowego who signed unauthorised agreement with the FSB . guess Trash has to follow PO tradition.

Trump doesn't crawl under people's beds to check the gender of those making love?

If you look at his properties... it's obvious he has working relationships with gay designers...

But in 2016 one reason he destroyed the republican competition was withdrawing from their established anti-gay and anti-abortion positions, he gave anti-abortion some minimal lip service but nothing more.

And again it would be bad optics in the US for the country to get behind a country engaging in openly homophobic rhetoric... that's a headache he doesn't need.

Clueless jabbering from Naffketis when Duda will meet Trump on the 24th it seems

He has invited Waldemar Krysiak. He is showing that militant LGBT organizations are not the only ones who can speak for homosexuals. Very smart move on Duda's side


Meanwhile: White House confim Duda's visit in Washington on June 24th*

Another deep and insightful political analysis done by @mafketis ;-)

*wpolityce.pl/polityka/505198-bialy-dom-spotkanie-duda-trump-24-czerwca

@amiga500
What deal with FSB? Any particulars? And what tradition?
Gove us some meat instead of some insinuation


And the guy didn't seem impressed with the president...Surprising...

The debate is a complete waste of time so far. The questions being asked have really no relation to what's going on in the real world and are obviously designed to do nothing more than hit Trzaskowski while promoting Duda among people who will vote for Duda anyway. Obviously Trzaskowski isn't falling for it, and Bosak is busy pointing out that these questions are irrelevant and part of a pathetic game.

Edit: Biedroń might just have dragged Duda into a no-win situation. He's demanding an apology from Duda, and if Duda doesn't give it tonight, he's going to come across as unsympathetic. That could cost him among female voters in particular...

What did you expect?

Quite frankly I feel ashamed for our political class...it was a pathetic show

Actually, I'm surprised by the coronavirus question. It gave Trzaskowski the chance to remind viewers that PiS gave 2bn to TVP and nothing to cancer patients, while Duda made a huge tactical mistake by promising a free vaccine to only senior citizens. It raises the prospect that PiS won't fund the vaccine for younger people, which could frighten centrist voters who want to get vaccinated and back to normal life ASAP.

IMO, the most telling thing about this debate has been Duda's inability to sympathise with people. He didn't apologise to Biedroń, he didn't show any compassion for those who lost their jobs/livelihoods over the last few months, he didn't extend an olive branch to Silesians, nothing.

I saw about three seconds with a screen caption about 'treat gays like human beings today.... and gay adoption tomorrow?!" (not the exact words but the impression it was trying to make).

At this point I'm almost hoping Duda wins so that PiS has to fully own the economic problems that are on the way and can't blame anyone else (though dimwitted PiS supporters will obediently blame ..... Donald Tusk? I guess)

Might not be that easy for him. There's another poll today:

Duda 40%
Trzaskowski 30%
Hołownia 10%
Bosak 7%
K-Kamysz 4%
Biedroń 2%

Among determined voters:

Duda 43%
Trzaskowski 32%
Hołownia 11%
Bosak 7%
K-Kamysz 4%
Biedroń 2%

And another poll that I missed. It's quite out of date though, as it was carried out between the 5-10 June but only published today.

Duda: 38%
Trzaskowski: 27%
Hołownia: 8%
Bosak: 6%
K-Kamysz: 6%
Biedroń: 4%

Second round:

Duda: 41%
Trzaskowski: 43%

Duda: 41%
Hołownia: 43%

And now the stories keep on coming. TVP Info cancelled a Twitter poll because of alleged bot interference, but the poll showed Trzaskowski winning comfortably. Things like this will be compared to the Trójka situation, even if it's true.

Anyway, Bosak came across weaker than last time tonight. He was seen to be constantly looking at his notes, even during the final 'free speech' segment - which suggests that he hasn't prepared himself well. I doubt it'll hurt him, but it shows his lack of political experience at this sort of level.

I have to say @dolphiandomine that for the last few weeks you're trying to appear more balanced and your posts look less ridiculous than usual. Obviously one of the reasons is that you don't want to look like an **se again once all this is over, but still kudos to you.

I hope that I've contributed a little bit to your [so far] promissing change :-)

PS: If you would only start providing links to those polls you're sharing to make them look less dodgy it would be great.

I'd rather not - because it just ends up as elsewhere where everyone gets hung up on whoever commissioned the poll. But I'm not posting any dodgy polls by completely unknown sources (like a certain Twitter account right now that appears to be posting ridiculous polls without any sourcing), and when a poll comes across as being nonsense, I'm posting them with disclaimers.

In terms of political scientists, I'm following Marcin Palade, Daniel Pers and Ben Stanley. If you know any decent Konfederacja-leaning political scientist, let me know and I'll post interesting things from them as well.


I wouldn't want to bet any money on this election. There's just way too many variables to take into account, and I think anything could still happen. The only thing that I'm certain of is that Duda's campaign is lifeless and comes across as chaotic, whereas Trzaskowski and Bosak appear to have a plan and they're sticking to it. Bosak in particular appears to be quietly picking up steam, and I could see him taking 2nd place among people aged 18-29.

WKK and Hołownia also appear to have really nothing to say and it shows.

I'm glad that you're rooting for K.Bosak because that man has a bright future in front of him. However, the "genius plan" that those right wing voters which Bosak`will take from Duda's in the 1st turn will somehow magically materialize for Trzaskowski in 2nd round is laughable :-)

Nothing is certain in politics but the dynamics are on side of Duda's team, especially since the introduction of lgbt subject. Without an aggressive push Trzaskowski will loose it, he is the one who needs to get at least 20% more (overall) votes to win in 2nd round.

By being passive, like he is now, he won't get them. Duda could afford to be more passive at this stage but he is the more active one so far!

At 60% dedicated voters there's ~18 000 000 votes to be taken. Duda has ~40% of them that is 7 200 000. He needs another 1.8 mil. in 2nd round to win. Trzaskowski at (optimistically speaking) ~30% has 5 400 000 votes and he needs to convince more than 3.5 mil. voters to win the 2nd round.

Bosaks statement about not supporting PO in second round, Duda meeting Trump. Dudas upcoming economic promises in the runup to the second round. Trashkowskis spotty record in warsaw and the general bad memories of PO. Hołownia , KK and Biedron failing to capture public imagination. Its over folks. Looking forward to picking up my wager with PolamKrakow 12 July. :)

IPSOS, who got the exit poll almost perfect last year, predicts the following movement of voters in the 2nd round:

Duda:
10% Lewica
19% PSL
33% Konfederacja

Trzaskowski:
89% Lewica
61% PSL
42% Konfederacja

This is only half of the truth. The other half in his statemnt is that they won't support Duda in the second round either. If you want to promote half-thruths on this forum, it is not the right place for this, I'm afraid.

A very interesting analysis on the position of Konfedercja in the current electoral turmoil in Poland can be found in today's Rzeczpospolita:
rp.pl/Wybory-prezydenckie-2020/306179911-Konfederacja-nie-poprze-nikogo.html

Artur Dziambor, an MP for Konfederacja, says Duda's re-election will strengthen Kaczyński's dictatorship in Poland. PiS wants to stir by the electoral law and also has other projects that are dangerous. A victory for PO means an ever-lasting conflict with PiS resulting in pushing other minor parties aside. This is why Konfedercje won't indicate to its voters whom they might support in the second round - concludes poseł Artur Dziambor.

As for Duda's photo op with Trump on the 24th, it will be too little too late. By the time it hits news cycles here in Poland it will be the middle of the evening if not late at night. Voters minds will be made up before then. It would have been much better timing if it happened between the first and second rounds of voting. I suspect thats why Trump wouldn't schedule it around the 4th of July holiday. It would paint a much more powerful picture for Duda then.

Cant wait to pay on the wager if Duda is re-elected as president, almost as much as I cant wait to collect. If the IPSOS poll is accurate its going to be a fun July.

Do you have a source/link to that statement? Because AFAIK on Polsat news Bosak focused on PO and it's failings. And we are talking about Konfederacia's presidential canditate here not another Posel from another faction in konfed.


I think Trump has a lot more important things to do around the 4th of July than meeting the Polish President! Probably quelling more riots..

Here something to lighten the mood- candidates as women.
plejada.pl/zdjecia-gwiazd/kandydaci-na-prezydenta-jako-kobiety-jak-wygladalby-andrzej-duda-rafal-trzaskowski/9mjb193

But I must say kudos to Konfederacja for choosing Bosak. While I obviously don't agree with his views I must admit he clearly knows how to present himself. I wish my own preferred party didn't screw it up every presidential election

They will be most likely 2 rounds of voting. Second round on 12 July...


Well, you can always start rooting for another candidate and move more to the right perhaps? :-)

Not unless I get a lobotomy :)

How did you like the female versions? One has to admit Trzaskowski is the most attractive one in both versions :D

@Spike31
I expect two rounds for sure. But a late June photo op isnt going to help him nearly 3 weeks later in July. Poorly timed for real effect.

@Lenka

There's a lot of high quality female symphatizers of conservative right which can be observed during events in Swietlica Wolnosci bar in Warsaw.


As expected, most women will vote on the basis of "good looks" and not a political programme of a candidate :-)

Indeed, How does a 9 percent vote for the left in Parlamentary elections translate into 3 percent polling for Biedron? Are Left voters homophobic or what? ;)

I guess it depends what a high quality female is to you. For example Korwin-Mikke's wife has absolutely no self esteem it seems. But let's forget that (as it's not my place to be the judge of other people)- I'm an atheist with many homosexual friends whose wedding I would love to attend :D I would burn with all the crosses around and my dress would get ruined :P

@Lenka
While I am neither right or left, I am a centrist, most feminist I know end up divorced and alone. This is true around the world. PiS has a lot wrong with it, but the family values and traditional family structure is not one of them. If they could only get it together on economic issues, and other common sense issues I would support them. But they waste too much time and too much money on BS.

Maybe I'm just younger then :)
But your argument falls a bit short:
1-it means they were 'mating' as it was called
2-divorces are so common that they are hardly just feminist thing

Btw- what are family values and how can a party do anything about it?

More polls coming in.

First one relates to the 2nd round:

Duda: 45%
Trzaskowski: 43%
Undecided: 8%
Won't vote: 4%

Duda: 44%
Hołownia: 44%
Undecided: 7%
Won't vote: 5%

Duda: 44%
K-Kamysz: 42%
Undecided: 9%
Won't vote: 5%

Duda: 45%
Biedroń: 39%
Hard to say: 9%
Won't vote: 7%

Duda: 40%
Bosak: 33%
Hard to say: 13%
Won't vote: 14%

==

Duda: 40%
Trzaskowski: 32%
Hołownia: 10%
Bosak: 7%
K-Kamysz: 3%
Biedroń: 2%
Don't know: 6%

Second round:

Duda: 48%
Trzaskowski: 48%

==

Duda: 40.82%
Trzaskowski: 30.28%
Hołownia: 11.74%
Bosak: 6.24%
K-Kamysz: 6.06%
Biedroń: 3.28%

==

This visit of Duda to the US before the first round is probably going to be the last throw of the dice for him. The question is - how much will he lose by sitting on a plane for ~20 hours unable to campaign effectively vs how much will he gain from meeting Trump?

There's so much about this election that's unpredictable that I really wouldn't like to call it one way or another. About the only thing that I think is safe to predict is that Duda is going to have a terrible result among young people.