Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates

hahaha enoying korki roasting your asses and and all you guys have is personal insults about getting paid. mafketis/jon/delph are looking at PO goats assuming they have a grand plan to make cheese. lol total opposition in shambles as usual. you know usually an opposition campaigns on policies not just yelling and screaming. the fact the PO and SLD crowd here have not articulated one PO policy for winning back PiS votes is telling. You are intelectually vacant and all there is reactionary outrage

So in fact 'enjoying' something that isn't actually happening.

And the 'election' that PiS were so determined to hold hasn't in fact happened now, has it...

PiS pissed off a lot of people though with their heavy handed approach to corona... locking people up, giving tickets, telling them they can't go outside for weeks despite a few hundred dead... not cool...

And the televised demonstrations in Warsaw today from business owners who didn't get any of the shield money are not going to help them either.

PiS will still most likely beat PO, but their support level is going to go down. IMO, they need to do some kind of grand gesture before elections or promise more $$$.

They will probably promise more money as you suggest - though the number of people able to find these promises has just been shrunk by the crisis. You

I am going to put my money on the opposition. I think PiS has run its course. Too many people lost jobs and too many companies closed their doors under PiS. Whether it was pandemic or not, PiS will be held responsible by the people who lost. People in the countryside that depend on tourist money as they pass through or spend the weekend have been hurt a lot. Restaurants have been decimated, and those employees wont be finding new jobs with the new dining rules. Hotels the same. Extending the EU border controls the other day isn't going to help them either as more tourism damage is taking place.

This guy from Warsaw is educated, very intelligent, and the people seem to gravitate to him. Duda wont be able to match this guy. Particularly when they start talking about how to pay for all the money they gave away to large business and how none of it got to the people who really needed it, the small business owner and their employees.

I just read that next week the miners are also going to protest - that is bad news as PiS has spent 4 years protecting them. Also a bit worried about them bringing covid back to Warsaw !

It's really hard to say right now. Duda is polling around 43-45% which should be enough for him, but anything less than 42% and he'll be struggling. Whether it's even PO in the second round is another question - Hołownia (a moderate independent Catholic who is broadly acceptable to people, even me) is really picking up steam.

Duda has the advantage right now, and there's no point in pretending otherwise.


It'll probably happen - the 13th pension will have been spent/given to desperate relatives, so it won't have the electoral effect. They're talking about giving 1000zł to every worker earning below average wage for holidays, but that might backfire badly.

Holownia will be the first to be consumed by POKO and Trzaskowski. Trzaskowski, before he even get to Duda, has to beat the closest competition around him since they're sharing a similar electorate. It's going be be a civil war among "total opposition"

Krzysztof Bosak is safe from those attacks since he gather up a conservative, entrepreneurial and right-wing electorate which is disilusioned with PiS and would never trust Holownia (who is backed by general Miroslaw Rozanski btw.) in the first place.

It is true they may share a lot of their electorate but Holownia is, at least theoretically, more to the right.

Why would there be a civil war among them? There's some sniping, but all the opposition candidates have clearly agreed to limit the attacks on each other and to focus on Duda instead. There's nothing to gain by discrediting each other - which is exactly why Bosak has focused on PiS and Duda. Even today, Bosak announced that he's preparing a lawsuit against Jacek Sasin for illegally printing 30m ballot papers. They're very much focusing on PiS as opposed to other opposition parties, and it's working.

Hołownia might not be consumed. He's consistently polling 2nd now, and Biedroń has lost almost all his support to Hołownia after that idiotic and very badly timed attack on him. If Hołownia turns his online support into something tangible, he might well make the 2nd round.


He's a classic "don't be a dick" conservative - something that I think is electable.

Hardly. None on the right would vote on him. IF he is to the right is still the same pool of voters, those people who would vote Totaleropposition anyways.

And yet just 2 months ago Kosianiak-Kamysz was on the rise and considered to be a Duda-eater...It means nothing. If 'Czerska' and TVN change the direction and shout "all aboard Trzaskowski's train" most lemmings will follow and Holownia will tank.


Yes, theoretically. Yet he is supported mostly by POKO electorate who coulnd't stand Kidawa-Blonska. An LGBT friendly "progressive" Trzaskowski will be more natural option for them to vote for.

Where do you get that nonsense from? It's a real life, not some 'world control center' deep down your basement. Ultimately, it is everyone for themselves. Especially, now when PO is acting like a wounded lamb. PSL, Hołownia and even Biedroń have something to gain from their defeat. It seems that Kosiniak-Kamysz would be the toughest opponent for Duda. He's electable among center-right and 'total opposition' wouldn't mind standing next to him. Second comes Hołownia and basically nobody else. A lot depends on how Hołownia reacts to Trzaskowski. If they start fighting each other, KKK may jump into second round. Ende.

Shows how unpredictable Polish presidential elections are. Did anyone see Tymiński beating Mazowiecki in 1990 into the 2nd round, or Kwaśniewski beating Wałęsa across most of the country in 1995? WKK was on the rise until Hołownia started running a decent online campaign, and now he's floundering.


Maybe so. However, that doesn't bode well for Duda, as it means he's back in the same position as he was before the crisis, where he will pick up 40ish percent of the vote in the first round and he'll be fighting for every last vote in the 2nd round.


What makes you think that Konfederacja voters will vote for Duda? Bosak is spending most of his time attacking PiS, he's not suddenly going to endorse Duda in the 2nd round. They're far more likely to stay quiet, just as they did in the Senate elections. Endorsing Duda now would **** off their electorate, especially as many of them are ones directly suffering from the policies of PiS.


Might be good to actually follow what people are saying rather than relying on those messages from Nowogrozka, you know.

True. He may even steal some votes from the left considering how bad they are doing.


I still believe in the end he would have the best chance in second round.

Hołownia stronghold is internet so doubt it

Might it not be enough, though? It's clear that WKK/Hołownia/Trzaskowski are pretty much equal, and Hołownia has the media skills behind him. I don't know what the grass roots support looks like, but Kukiz managed 20% off the back of a campaign that was mostly online too. Winning 20% now could be enough for the 2nd round...

You got no idea what ppl are saying. You are only repeating BS you get from someone who's been watching TVN or reading GW all day long. Just like a parrot pretending to be a prophet ;)

There's another clash of the titans ahead of us:
pomponik.pl/plotki/news-edyta-gorniak-napisala-list-do-lukasza-szumowskiego-w-sprawi,nId,4499256,nPack,2

Nonsense, I told you months ago she is much weaker then what they claims in the news. Told you if she opens her mouth she will keep loosing voters.


Some of them may if there is second round with Duda and some other candidate than Kosiniak. Still Konfederacja may call their voters to vote this or other way.

However those voters would never vote Holownia, hell most of PiS voters wouldn't. He is a choice for fence sitters between PiS and PO.

Seems to me there is a good chance that Duda will win this election in the first round.

I watched Trzaskowski on TVN last night. Duda doesn't stand a chance in a debate with him. Openly promising to cancel the TVP financial support immediately and give the money to Cancer treatment? How many votes did he win with that statement? This guy is smart, tested in leading the largest city in Poland, and I think he can cross the generational gap that exists between PiS and opposition supporters. KK and Holownia are good options, but neither can really mount a fight against Trzaskowski.

I don't see a whole lot of Konfederacja voters voting for PiS.

Personally, I like Konfederacja waaaay more than PiS, but I don't see them getting enough support anytime soon to move beyond being a fringe party for nationalists. A lot of Konfederacja voters see PiS as another "establishment" party that's going the same route as other conservative right wing parties in the EU and cucking to the left.


I don't like him since he's pro-fag, but at least he's better than the jew schetyna or german traitor/merkel lapdog tusk

He's head and shoulders above Duda. And yes, he does certainly know how to do PR and how to come across on TV.

Just as much as PO is getting right now.


Great news ... for Duda. If it comes down to good old PiS vs PO, Duda will certainly win. Opposition needs a candidate that can unite them all and beat Duda in smaller towns. Trzaskowski, aka Szambonurek, is nowhere near that. KKK is their only chance. Tusk already knew that when he pulled out.

That's by no means certain. The latest poll:

Duda: 43.2%
Trzaskowski: 16.5%
Hołownia: 15.9%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 9.7%
Bosak: 6.4%
Biedroń: 5.5%

Bosak's electorate effectively holds the balance of power right now, and there's absolutely no guarantee that they will vote for Duda. If Duda drops to 40%, he'll have serious trouble in the second round. Smaller towns may not be enough for Duda, especially if people don't see tangible effects from the anti-crisis shield. If PiS go with June 28th, then if there's no money in the account (or less than they thought they would get) on the 10th July, it's going to play on the minds of the electorate.

Duda isn't quite where he was before the crisis, but if he falls to 40%, he'll be fighting for every single vote.


Indeed.

Duda has this made unless he really ***** up. I'd rather have Bosak, but oh well...

Duda is done. PiS is done. The whole move to authoritarian government is done. Once they tried to censor music by eliminating a song today about K they lost a lot of support from nationalist youth.

It's not that easy for him - it sounds like he has high support, but he won't take any votes from Trzaskowski/Hołownia/Biedroń voters. Kosiniak-Kamysz will almost certainly endorse Duda's opponent in the 2nd round, so it leaves Bosak's electorate with the power to decide.

Have you seen the videos from last weekend with protesting business owners being tear gassed in Warsaw?

Konfederacja voters are also furious at the manipulation of Trójka, which is another big problem for Duda...

(note: some of the hard right wing are also mad at PiS for the restrictions in churches, which are actually more harsh than those for restaurants. This stuff matters when every vote counts.)

Same can be said about PO and their boy-toy. They got significantly weaker and still haven't dealt with a huge 'negative' electorate. PSL will prey on that and all the rest will follow their footsteps. You must have heard the latest comments on Trzaskowski by Hołownia and KKK or TVN just got them censored ;) And I agree that nothing is certain right now, but KKK offers the best possibility to beat Duda. Plus you are constantly assuming that all the PSL and SLD voters will immediately support Trzaskowski, it's just plain wrong.


Sure, but they also see Trzaskowski as


;)

Indeed, he has no equals when it comes to spewing platitudes and empty promises. What is know for a fact he supports LGBT ideology and what it promoted for taxpayers money.