Poland Parliamentary elections 2015

Almost all Polish parties remain power vehicles for a single leader and anyone else gets pushed out. Both PO and PiS are guilty of this. As soon as a particular figure begins to develop their own power base in they party they get forced out (Rokita, Ziobro, Marcinkiewicz are just the three biggest examples). Does anyone think that Kaczynski will let Szydło alone? The better job she'd do the more in danger her position in the party..... that's pretty effed up.

The most spectacular example is what der Führer Tusk did with the remaining 2 tenors -- Olechowski and Płażyński -- he edged them out and took over as befits a true Führer!

Dont' ever change, Polonius3, keep feeding your hate. I'd pay for you and crow to have dinner together just for the opportunity to listen to all the crazy.

So you're saying Tusk did not sidetrack Olechowski and Płażyńaki, are you? BTW are you a big fan of the PO's PiS-bashing hate industry? They're the ones who know all about hate!

Of course he did, that's how Polish politics works. As soon as you become a potential danger to the big kahuna you're out.


I dislike PO a little less than I do PiS. Call that being a big fan if it pleases you.

My natural inclinations are socially liberal (though I'm a little on the traditionalist side) and fiscally moderate to conservative, sort of a Rockefeller Republican (which no longer exist since the the bible crazies took over the GOP). Internationally of more an isolationist (US involvement in almost anything outside it's borders has been a major disaster for the last 30 years or so).

PiS is the opposite of that - socially conservative socialists the worst of all possible worlds for me.

It's good to know where you stand. I think I could be called a socially conservative altruist, because I believe the underprivileged and disadvanatged should be helped and the market must have a humna face. But I bristle at the term socialism becuase I've actually lived through it, and to me it's not only or mainly about economics but about the falsification of history, atheisation of school children, political opponents killed or maimed in back alleys by "unknown perpetraors" (nieznani sprawcy), censorship (similar to what the PC dictatorship are now trying to impose on those who disagree with their dogmas), martial law and other "progressive" solutions.

Agreed. I think the PSL is probably the only example to the contrary, and even Pawlak really struggled with stepping aside. But the problem with PiS is that their leader is so toxic and unappealing to the majority that he really should leave them alone.

Polonius, a serious question - if Kaczyński, Macierewicz and a few others were thrown out of PiS in an internal coup in November so that Szydło could put together a viable coalition (doesn't matter with who - let's say the PSL for the sake of argument) - would you still support PiS? Let's say that their policies don't change dramatically, too.

SLD at one point as well. Oddly those were/are the only parties with a history from before 1989. Since then it's all been big men and their flunkies (even though PO didn't start out that way that's what it's turned into).

LOL ! Come on, you won't get far on this horse, it just doesn't work anymore :)))

well PiS support seems to wax and wane based on how much he's the public face of the party. And his charisma is all negative - people like him because he hates the same people they do. There's not much positive or optimistic there....

Yes, because it's not people but values and policies that are important. So far they have represented a socially conservative pro-family, pro-Catholic and pro-patriotic platform. If that were to change and they adopted policies borrowed from the Grodzka, Palikot & Biedroń Show, I would definitely withdraw my support.


Latest Millward Brown survey: PiS 32%, PO 22%, Kukiz 7%, Petru 6%, KORWIN 5%.
No ex-commies, anti-clerical nutters or hayseeds have made it this time round!

Then Ryszard Petru and his nowoczesna.pl could be a natural choice for you.

nowoczesna.pl would be a natural parnter for PO. Poor PiS would have no-one to form a viable foremal coalition with. Both Kukiz and Korwin are loose canons, adn forming a colaiton with either ot both would amoutn to politcal suice (shades of Lepper and Giertych!). If they both got in, they could back PiS during votes on jointly supported issues.

It gets more and more curious.

radiozet.pl/Wybory-2015/Wybory-parlamentarne-2015.-Sondaz-IBRiS.-PiS-przed-PO-00012084

PiS - 35.6%
PO - 23.2%
ZL - 9.3%
Nowoczesna - 8.1%
Kukiz - 7%
PSL - 6.2%
KORWiN - 2.5%

The next opinion polls after Duda's veto will be very, very interesting.

Not really. It all depends on teh polling technique and chocoie of sample. Fixed polling group, random respondents, proportionate sampling by region, cellphone, landline, man on the street all give different results. To be ideally fair the pollster would have to query as many people per region, social group and age group as exist percentage-wise in Poland, but I doubt whether many of the survey conductors go to all that trouble.

Well, the big ones will, but it's worth pointing out that opinion polls can often get it badly wrong. The election this year in the UK was a great example - almost everyone was predicting that no party would win a majority, yet the Conservatives won a small but healthy majority.

The centrist voters will decide this one, and PiS need to be very, very careful with them.

Just spotted this -

dziennikwschodni.pl/wybory/n,1000168549,wybory-2015-najnowszy-sondaz-pis-zwycieza-po-i-zl-na-podium-psl-poza-sejmem.html

PiS - 201 seats
PO - 133
ZL - 64
Kukiz - 36
Nowoczesna - 19
Korwin - 5
MN - 2

The huge question right now - should such numbers stay, does PiS attempt a coalition with Kukiz (and risk Kukiz being destroyed by repeated attacks from ZL and Nowoczesna), or do they attempt to run a minority government?

I'm shocked that Kukiz is holding on though.

I'm not. Naturally he wasted many opportunites and made many blunders but the reason IMHO he is still over the wire is the extreme resentment his non-PiS backers feel towards the ruling establishment and PO in particular

I do not believe all those parties will get in. There's a good chance that ZL, PSL and Korwin will not. And that will enhance the chances of PiS going it alone.

My feeling on the matter is that they will shift to PiS on election day, or they won't go to vote (especially if the weather is bad) - it just doesn't seem credible that he can attract any significant support with the random collection of individuals that he has.


The thing is that PiS aren't doomed to fail automatically with a minority government. There are numerous examples of successful minority governments - for instance, the 2007-2011 Scottish Government worked well because the ruling party proposed good, sensible legislation - and it was politically impossible for the 2nd biggest party to oppose it, even though they were furious with the situation. In such a scenario however, it would be vital to keep Kaczyński and Macierewicz out of front line politics.

But PiS also have to be careful now. I've seen some nonsense that they're proposing to get rid of the Bologna Agreement in higher education - this essentially means that a Polish degree is the same as a German one which in turn is the same as an Italian one and so on. Such proposals won't help - the average person that cares about Bologna is not going to support abolishing it.

What reasoning to they give for opposing it? I agree about Macierewicz, a diabolical-looking bloke at the very least. His opportunity was in1992. Had Olszewski been able to weather the storm, many PZPR and SB types would have been weeded out and maybe PiS would have no układy to combat and could devote themselves to more productive activities. True, teczki were incomplete, some possibly falsified but within 2-3 years that could have got sorted out. But it went the other way. Wałęsa's parliamentary coup resulted in that stillborn lustracja dragging on for years, leading to the Polish-Polish War and sapping much human time, energy and resources. Kaczyński could be kept on as honorary president but not in the forefront of things

Latest poll...

PiS 34%
PO 24%
ZL 10%
Nowoczesna 9%
Kukiz 8%
PSL 6%
KORWiN 3%

fakty.interia.pl/raporty/raport-wybory-parlamentarne-2015/sondaze/news-najnowszy-sondaz-przed-wyborami-parlamentarnymi,nId,1898772

Not much to say, apart from that Kaczyński needs to get out of the headlines. They were polling in the high 30's/low 40's before he made his return, and that 5% difference could make a huge difference later.

Nail on the head there, Delph. Fortunately, right on cue:


Full article here.
thenews.pl/1/9/Artykul/223922,Polish-opposition-leader-promises-serene-rule

With him and Macierewicz both making a return, and elements now saying that perhaps Szydło will get her chance in 4 years and that Kaczyński's time is now, they're doing a splendid job.

Yep, they're driving away the middle ground voters who were leaning towards them, making their own electorate less likely to actually vote and driving people towards PO. It's hard to imagine a worse performance really.

With a bit of luck they will manage to cut their own support to 30.5% while raising that of PO to 29.5% (it'll hurt even more if they are in the thirties while PO are in the twenties) and thus make it fairly easy for PO to form a coalition while it's impossible for PIS to form one.

The numbers are starting to make very interesting reading. There's a new poll, and the following seat projection was released...

PiS - 202
PO - 143
ZL - 43
Nowoczesna - 40
PSL - 22
Kukiz - 9
MN - 1

wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wybory-parlamentarne-2015-sondaz-ibris-do-sejmu-wchodzi-6-partii/9p0qg0

The poll was taken yesterday and the numbers released today, so it clearly shows that the re-emergence of Kaczyński is hurting PiS. There's no way that PiS could hope to govern with a minority government with such opposition. In theory, PiS/PSL/Kukiz would give them 234 seats, but does anyone believe that such a coalition would have any real chance of survival?

It will be very, very interesting to see what happens now that Macierewicz is back. If he costs PiS even 5 seats, they're in trouble.

Would PO stoop so low as to hook up wtih the ex-commies of Katyń conspiracy fame? Even the Platfusy, crooked and power greedy though they are, must have some scruples and at least some shred of honour.

Merged: latarnikwyborczy

For those who can read/understand Polish:

latarnikwyborczy.pl/

I would like people to post their results:

My results:

70% Kukiz
68% PIS
60% Korwin
60% Nowa Prawica
60% PSL
55% PO
50% Razem
48% Lewica
35% Nowoczesna

It's certainly impossible to imagine them going into a coalition with the same groups of scumbags that PIS formed a government with!

Can there be any greater scumbags than commies, ex-commies or any other type of leftist nutter with roots to Uncle Joe? Even Lepper and Giertych were better than the likes of PZPR Politburo member Miller and his red sidekick Czarzasty. Oh, I forgot, you must be one of those self-styled soft-on-communism "progressives"! They are known as "useful idiots".

PiS are in utter disarray as usual. It's now clear that Szydło had no control over Macierewicz, and the weaker/lower candidates for PiS are now very, very angry as Macierewicz may have cost them a place in the Sejm. Kaczyński has apparently cancelled all his public appearances, but the damage has been done.

Amazing how things change in a couple of days in politics.

Isn't it marvelous! Newsweek have a good piece about it.
My favourite part about this is that he was speaking to a crowd who would still vote PIS if he'd turned up, gone for one off the wrist, necked a six-pack of cheap beer and then gone to sleep for the rest of the meeting. Yet again a PISite has been preaching to the choir and driven away the middle ground voters who win/lose elections.


Meaning all of Macierewicz's or Kaczynski's? :D
That's another benefit of this bit of fun: if Macierewicz is being removed from sight yet again, Kaczynski will probably try to fill the space left himself.