The Iran war and Poland

Leave it out Paulina.

This isn't an off topic thread for you to rant periodically in.

@jon357, stop being an a$$hole. I'm not "ranting" and you yourself took part in this discussion. I'd like to also remind you that if it wasn't for your bullsh1t comment comparing women wearing hijab in Iran to women wearing coats in Europe we wouldn't be even having this conversation.

Calm down Paulina.

The world is at war and this isn't a time for you to rant.

@jon357, you don't take it well when someone's calling you out on your bullsh1t, huh? :D Sorry, but you're getting what you deserve. Don't write bullsh1t and you won't have a problem with me. The same goes for anyone on this forum regardless of their political views or nationality. I don't discriminate :D

@Paulina
I suggest you stay on topic.

Now, what do posters here think about the risk of a dirty bomb?

According to Iran, their enriched uranium was moved before the recent attack. If they are not lying, they could easily make a dirty bomb and get it abroad.

If they really try anything then this will be their end....

To poke NOW the bear after he roared and smacked them once in warning would be über-stupid!

I believe even Russia and China would then wash their hands of them...the world community can't allow such weapons in these hands!
Their only apology till now after all is:
"Oh no, we don't have such kind of weapons and we would never!"

Probably, however they are unpredictable enough to try it and could bring a bomb into any country they have an embassy at in the diplomatic bag. Or if they don't have an embassy, they could use a pariah state that does.

Trup could do nothing whatsoever to stop them.

They must then truly think us idiots when they believe they would get away with this...


Thats why the punishment needs to be and would be double...to show other wannabes the cost of such ideas!

They do.


If, more than when, however a cornered animal is dangerous and especially if they have mystical religion in the mix.

It's pretty idiotic to kidnap diplomats and destroy embassies however they did it.

Man, I hope Mossad + Co. knows whats at stake and they are at their best!

That's why this victory lap is premature. Only time will tell how successful this mission was.

Satellite showed a lengthy line of cargo trucks outside the Fordow site just last week.

I'd think the regime would have to go into deep hiding, then. Their heads will not be attached to their bodies for much longer if they did something like that. The response from US or Israel would be horrible and devastating.

Me too. The Times this morning said that Khameini is hidden and uncontactable. The real spiritual leader has of course been in occlusion for a decade. Whether that will change is another matter however Khameini may well try something very stupid.

The US has 13,000 planes and 11 carrier groups for just that occasion...

Are you volunteering in a subtle way, I.S. ?

No, it's not a religion, it is a "cult".

LOL - Some of the immoral women here wear those spandex pants with no back pockets that show every crack of their body leaving nothing to imagination with a see thru top and no bra allowing their bullets to just flop around to draw attention that give men impure thoughts.
Then they cry rape.
Iran is just the other extreme.

She can't be that little unless you had her close to menopause.
Single mothers become real mama bears when their daughters don't have their father living in the same house to protect them.

Pease stay [ON TOPIC] = POLAND

I read he is heavily guarded in some hospital....either sick or hurt....nobody knows....

You keep asking this question so you must have a hidden agenda.
There are much worse dirty bombs than nuclear ones so no, I don't fear one where I live.
London however is in the bullseye for one.


Neither could the U.K. or any other country in Europe.
Why do you provoke the topic by always using trup for your target ?

Now let me ask you a question, "Do you think that Israel possesses any nukes ?" :-)
A simple Yes or No would be sufficient.

It's possible he was injured though unlikely. My guess would be in or near Qom.

What kind of tickles me, is the idea that the GBU-57s were dropped right into two systems of ventilation shafts.

Now I have no idea if this is true, but a lady on Fox News said so, and some publications have written the same. There's some kind of cgi schematic of the Fordow complex going around on Twitter, that was first published in 2021. It seems to show that there is indeed a vertical ventilation shaft reaching to the top of the mountain.

This is some Death Star level bullshit lol! Why on Earth would the Iranians do that?

Is there some language in the Koran, that forbids building a separate ventilation building connected to the complex by... say two pipes?

In New York City, we have two big buildings - one in Lower Manhattan, and one in Brooklyn, that pushes air through the Midtown Tunnel. They're nowhere near the tunnel, and not above it either.

----//----

The other thing that's got me scratching my head are the excavators that had been photographed by satellite, ramming earth into the tunnel entrances. What's the point of this? When I try to imagine what the purpose could be, I can think of:

1) Preventing an Israeli commando raid. I guess the commandos can't bring enough explosives on their person, to blow through tens of meters of rammed earth.

2) Preventing radioactive material from flying all over Iran, in the case that America succeeds with its bombing mission.

3) A sort of makeshift mineshaft "support", in case of an American strike on the tunnel entrances. The sand might presumably absorb more of the damage of the blast, preventing a wholesale collapse of the tunnel. This way you can just dig the sand out later and have a usable tunnel again, instead of building a whole new tunnel entrance.

These are all my conjectures, originated while sitting on my toilet. Curious what other people think that could have been for?

Maybe the complex has some kind of interesting internal geometry, with sharp angles and blast doors, where you can use a wall of rammed earth kinda like an ammunition blowout panel on a tank? These sand being less dense and easier displaced than a blast door, it might channel the shock wave in a direction towards the outside, rather than the center of the complex.

Those are details. I wonder what Iran has in store, if anything. Would they just keep making claims about the mother of all bombs or a terrible and swift response to all enemies while launching a few missiles here and there, or do they have something in store?

@Ironside

Yesterday AntV quoted Medvedev saying several states were already considering transferring nuclear weapons to Iran. I dismissed it, because of the source.

But then I read a bit more about it in the Russian press, and understood that nobody is thinking this is a Russian weapon that will be transferred. Medvedev instead likely meant North Korea (more likely) or Pakistan (less likely).

Maybe he has access to some intelligence, that indicates those parties are considering such things.

If I were Pakistan - I would not do it. Iran already burned them once, by revealing the program to the whole world. Pakistan managed its program entirely in secret, using things like London and Dubai shopfronts as proxies to procure materials.

Then, relying on silent Muslim brotherhood, the AQ Khan network helped Iran get its nuclear program off the ground.

Iran's eventual transparency (e.g., public Natanz and Fordow revelations, IAEA inspections, the defiant enrichment milestones) effectively "blew the cover" on a covert proliferation chain. I think this may have endangered Pakistan's own network, invited global scrutiny, and compromised Pakistani deniability.

The Persians can't keep their mouth shut about anything. I'm sure if Pakistan gave them a nuke, they'd immediately threaten Israel with it - getting Pakistan into a lot of trouble.

North Korea is different. It's known for not giving a sh*t about anything, as long as it pisses off people in Washington DC.

Sorry this probably made no sense.

What I imagined, while sitting on the toilet, is that there must be some kind of massive blast door at the entrance. Then maybe a series of further doors.

If you open this door, and open a few others, then pile a bunch of dirt at the entrance - you could make an improvised "blowout panel".

The GBU-57 supposedly has a new smart fuse since a few years ago, which is "void sensing". So when it breaks through into the void of the tunnel, the blast door securing the centrifuge hall remains closed, while the others leading up to the outside are opened.

Since keeping the doors simply ajar, might mean inviting an Israeli commando raid - a sand wall is a good further precaution, while not enough to "bounce" the destructive shock wave back into the complex.

---/---

Regarding the ventilation shafts... As stupid as such an idea sounds, let's assume they really did exist in the specific configuration which is claimed.

Maybe there's a very practical reason why ventilation can't be routed through subsurface pipelines, and has to come from "the top". In that case, it seems to me like no facility can't be protected, since a shockwave traveling through a ventilation shaft will tear to pieces any fans and heat exchangers, and will then propagate freely through the entire interior.

Surely this is something that must have been addressed by designers? Perhaps it's possible to create some kind of "sump" for air, to preclude a single connected system?

Anyway - just very curious.

You mean the Throne of Deliberation.


Me too. Too many unknowns right now for a declaration of victory.

It seems Israel had well placed intel assets in Iran, so the location of these strikes may be dead on.

The only ones who know for sure the damage done are the Iranians on site.

Supposedly the Kremlin has been briefed too. This may mean that Medvedev's rant isn't just bluster, and that there truly was minimal damage.

Their foreign minister is traveling to Moscow for consultations in the Kremlin. I imagine the first thing the Russians will ask him is "How bad is the damage?"

In a few weeks, unless this whole thing goes completely tits up, the IAEA will have to tour the site. They should be pretty objective about what they see.

I think a few weeks or a couple months maximum before we know.

What the WSJ and NYTimes writes when they say "We may never know" - I don't understand. Of course we will find out soon - too many people involved.

Trump tries to talk tough to medvedev.... but still somehow thinks putin is his buddy.... so sad and pathetic...

x.com/disclosetv/status/1937173283448782912

Just heard on BBC news that Iran has fired on US air bases in Qatar.....

telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/06/23/iran-israel-us-strikes-latest-news-nuclear-sites-trump/

Which have been empty for the better part of two weeks.

The Kabuki theater continues.

His bluster was to arm Iran with nukes, so that may mean significant damage was done? IAEA believes highly probable Fordow suffered significant damage.

Just read in WSJ that Israel is now hitting symbolic targets to message to the Iranian people the regime is weak.

No - that it was not bluster - because he never meant that we were gonna give them nukes. That he meant someone else, whom we do not control.


This has always worked marvelously. From Dresden and Hamburg, to Tokyo, to Ho Chi Minh City.

People always love whoever bombs them, and begin hating their government! Of course!

@Bobko

I see. Putin has said Russia is taking steps to help the Iranian people. Any word in Russian media or anyone else what steps he means?

...to Kyiv.

But, I wonder if Israel knows something us mere mortals don't...I mean, Mossad is pretty crafty and treacherous.

Hehehe.

Who do you think I am when you say "anyone else"? All I have is Russian media. And of course they would never know, when it comes to something as good as this.

This sort of puts me in awe of America. Some guy, living in Missouri, nearly sabotaged one of America's most important bombing campaigns in the last 50 years. What's gonna happen to him? Nothing.

This is really what makes America such a great country, and why it will be so hard for anyone else to emulate its success.

The rights and freedoms of this one American are bigger than the overarching foreign policy goals of the entire state.

One could bring up McCarthyism and the Red Scare, but even in that case - one has to remember this was a "popular" witch hunt. Americans were largely in support of suspending the civil rights of suspected commies.

Really... America is something else, and I mean this sincerely.

With that in mind, lemme tell you that nobody who is somebody will ever tell you anything in Russia. That guy that reported B-2s flying over his house in Missouri - if he were Russian - he would be in a basement dungeon of the Lubyanka right now regretting he was not born a woman.

---

Long story short - I don't know anything. Probably the Minister of Defense and head of the National Security Council do not know. Such is the nature of Russia.

There's conjecture about what it could be, but it's still conjecture.

What seems to be a given, is that Russian anti-air defense specialists have been dispatched to advise, and Russian precision strike specialists. They perfected various tactics to breach Ukraine's American and European-provided defenses. The Iranians would likely benefit from this advice.

Then there is some speculation that Iran's nuclear material has been moved to Russia. That what the Iranian foreign minister wants in Moscow this week, is Putin's permission to develop Iranian owned weapons manufactories on Russian territory - to preclude them being disabled by Israel.

There's even rumors that Iran is transferring gold and cash to Moscow in planes loaded with pallets of the stuff. That's not very encouraging to hear, of course, if you are a friend of Iran.