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Poland's economic future?


Nicole 1 | -
18 Jan 2014  #1
Is is true that some don't want Poland to grow economically?
I heard this story from someone Polish and a few years later from someone Hungarian (they don't know each other at all).
When communism fell in East-Europe, companies from West-Europe bought the companies in East-Europe and let them go bankrupt (destroying resources), so the West-European companies would have monopolies in East-Europe. Let's just say it's the agricultural products sector. People in Eastern Europe are forced to purchase potatoes from the Netherlands, oranges from Spain etc. Of course they can rebuild it and start selling again for lets say 80 cents, then West-Europe will sell it for 70 cents and so on until they give up. Companies from West-Europe will have a the longest breath because they can permit selling under the price (longer). Besides that they won't give up since it will be bad for the labour forces in their agricultural sector. 

They both also said something about the Bilderberg Group having the upper hand in this game of money, power and control.
The Hungarian girl moved here to work (and later on her partner will come), she says she has nothing left back home and she doesn't think it will become better. A small elite in this world decide where the money flows, trying to change that is like carrying coals to newcastle. She believes that the economy is (still) set up so that the money flows back again in the elite's pocket.

This Polish girl says that she believes Poland can work itself up economically since Poland has a lot of hard workers.

What do you think?
jon357 63 | 14,342
18 Jan 2014  #2
No, not a word of that is true. Poland's economy is a net producer, some of the firms there that went bankrupt were simply uneconomical to run. The same happened in Czech.

And btw, the Bilderberg meeting is just a talking shop
DominicB - | 2,650
18 Jan 2014  #3
It's just conspiracy theory blither.

Agricultural over-production is a problem that Europe has been struggling with for at least forty years, long before Poland joined the EU. Curtailing and directing Poland's agricultural output is a major goal of the EU, and will benefit Poland in the end, as well, as it forces the country to lessen its dependence on that sector.

The companies that went belly up hardly needed any "help" from the West to do so. As Jon said, they were simply not economically viable, and could not adapt to the free market.

There is no benefit to the Old EU countries to have in the EU countries that aren't pulling their fair share of the weight. They have a vested interest in helping Poland develop. Regional disparity is a drag on the EU, just as it is a drag on the UK, the US and Germany. The advances Poland has made in the twelve years I have been here are astounding. Joining the EU has brought enormous benefits, though there is still a lot of work to be done.
Ironside 47 | 9,587
18 Jan 2014  #4
What do you think?

I think that there is many interesting points in your post.
Marek11111 9 | 816
18 Jan 2014  #5
And btw, the Bilderberg meeting is just a talking shop

talking shop is where the orders are distribute.

Joining the EU has brought enormous benefits, though there is still a lot of work to be done.

yes it has its benefits but also negative benefits.
jon357 63 | 14,342
18 Jan 2014  #6
talking shop is where the orders are distribute.

No. They don't give orders. It's more about sharing experience.

Reminds me of Vaclav Havel's famous speech where he said "Entire branches of industry are producing goods that are of no interest to anyone, while we are lacking the things we need"

freerepublic/focus/f-news/2822384/posts
Polish Patriot
19 Jan 2014  #7
Is is true that some don't want Poland to grow economically?

Poland will grow in spite of the fact that some don`t want her growth and in 2050 Poland will become one of the richest countries in Europe . Poland will overtake all western European countries by GDP PPP per capita with 60 719 US $ and only Luxembourg and Norway will have greater income per capita among all western European countries . UK will have a median income of 56 000 US $. The poorest countries in EU will be Romania , Bulgaria , Italy and Portugal.
Wulkan - | 3,255
19 Jan 2014  #8
Is is true that some don't want Poland to grow economically?

It's not going to happen regardless people want it or not.
Monitor 14 | 1,821
20 Jan 2014  #9
Poland will overtake all western European countries by GDP PPP per capita with 60 719 US $

Nostradamus? No, he was not Polish. Basically it's very unlikely, because other countries which managed to grew fast up to western level, like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, have had a policy of protecting some sectors in their home markets from outside competition, so they could grow in incubator for some time in order to compete on the same level later. No country except of tax paradises (Ireland) or tiny countries (Hongkong, Singapore) could overtake western level of GDP per capita with open market economy. Portugal, Spain, Greece could only come close to German or USA GDP per capita level, but not exceed it while having similar economic policy as Poland now has (free trade agreements with EU).

After saying that, I know that many would be very happy even with Spanish or pre-crisis Greek salaries here in Poland. Unfortunately in the future demographics will start being problem for economic growth in Poland and I am not sure if EU will let us import many immigrants to fight with it. Also previously mentioned Mediterranean countries didn't have to meet CO2 lowering agreements which some say could kill economic growth in Poland.
Polish Patriot
20 Jan 2014  #10
Nostradamus? No, he was not Polish. Basically it's very unlikely,

I understand how difficult it is for you to swallow a bitter pill, that Poland will become a rich country , one of the richest in the world .

No , it is not Nostradamus but :

Members of French research center in international economics, the CEPII which produces studies, researches, databases and analyses on the world economy and its evolution. Founded in 1978, it is part of the network coordinated by the Economic Policy Planning for the Prime Minister .
Besides of regular team of economists employed as staff , CEPII scientific members committee consists of :
Philippe Aghion Professor, Department of Economics, Harvard University (USA)
Joseph Francois Professor, Department of Economics,
Johannes Kepler Universität, Linz (Austria)
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas Professor, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley (USA)
(...)

cepii.fr/CEPII/en/cepii/cepii.asp

iadb.org/intal/intalcdi/PE/2012/09732.pdf

It is very unlikely that scientific committee of CEPII has got supernatural abilities to clairvoyance.
Nathan 18 | 1,363
20 Jan 2014  #11
This is a prediction into 2050! I wish Poland to become one of the richest, but at the same time I don't think Portugal, Italy, Bulgaria,... will become the poorest. It is not a science, but pure speculation, Polish Patriot.
wrrrr
20 Jan 2014  #12
I'm afraid that my post will prove the stereotype that Polish people are pessimists, but i'm nothing close to your optimism :)

Of course that Polish economy is developing, but EU is not going to help us in anyway, rather stop too rapid growth especially in the branch important for some more powerful member states, like ridiculously low fishing limits, Poland (38mln) has limits more or less on the Norwegian (5mln people) level. German state is entitled to provide financial aid for companies from former East Germany to balance the economical level this still poorer part, we and the rest East European countries are not lucky enought to have such privileges which help us to become competetive with the "west" Europe. I believe that Europe doesn't want to have the poverty problem but they don't let us for real competision, the possition of the worst brother is intended for us:( plus this permanent moaning about our racizm, anti-Semite to ensure us about our position of the journeyman of Europe.
Monitor 14 | 1,821
20 Jan 2014  #13
It is very unlikely that scientific committee of CEPII has got supernatural abilities to clairvoyance.

Economy is not hard science. There are still disputes about consequences of various economic actions. Moreover forecasting is something very hard. And I would paraphrase your sentence into "It's very unlikely that any scientific committee was able to predict economic well being of any country after 36 years". They usually extrapolate current trend with adjustment to demographics and lowering growth ratio with time (the most productive countries have harder to grow than less advanced).

And to show you that there are disputes between economists, take a look at World Bank estimates (published and edited by PWc). They don't think that Poland will catch up to German GDP per capita until 2050.

The model projections point to a risk that trends could be less favourable after 2030, as the rate of economic growth
may slow down and Poland could practically stop catching up with its biggest EU neighbor. Demography is the most
fundamental factor here. The number of Polish people of working age (15-64) in 2035 is projected to be 14% below
the current figure. Poland has one of the lowest fertility rates in the EU (1.3) and it is still not a sufficiently attractive
location to be able to fill this gap with immigration (in fact, Poland is still experiencing net emigration (...)

pwc.pl/pl/publikacje/assets/world_in_2050.pdf

It's normal that they cannot predict future. There are too many variables. (as with weather). Who predicted world crisis 2008? Few guys not taken seriously, not scientific committees.
poland_
20 Jan 2014  #14
Poland will grow in spite of the fact that some don`t want her growth and in 2050 Poland will become one of the richest countries in Europe.

Someone has been reading " The next one hundred years" By George Friedman :-)

youtube.com/embed/YKmvilC3nCc
Monitor 14 | 1,821
20 Jan 2014  #15
I looked at this pdf you linked and it says also that in 2050 GDP per capita will be:

Belarus: 117357
USA: 61657
Poland: 60719
Estonia: 104418
Lithuania: 94435

So Poles will be substantially poorer than Belorussians. I don't want to read details but I wonder what stays behind success of Belarus. Dictator?
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
20 Jan 2014  #16
In Wrocław, we appear to have a lot of affluent people, judging by the vehicles on the roads and parked around estates.

Either they've all inherited cash, have got the cash from a lender, or everyone's doing fabulously well in some business or job.

If these shiny motors are from a lender, it would give me cause for concern. But, on the other hand, Poland may be poised for success in which case people will be able to pay off the monthly credit and so forth.

Did Ireland look similar just before theirs went t1ts up? Just asking, not implying anything.
Crow 141 | 7,549
20 Jan 2014  #17
Poland shall be Piedmont, example and leader

Glory to Poland!
Polish Patriot
20 Jan 2014  #18
Someone has been reading " The next one hundred years" By George Friedman :-)

No , it is a research work of scientists , not a writer`s predictions. Search the website I gave a link to .

World Bank estimates

World bank estimates are worthless . They just lend money .

we appear to have a lot of affluent people,

Who is "we" , are you referring to Brits or Germans ? Are you surprised by the fact that Poles are becoming richer and richer and we don`t drive Fiats anymore ?

Poland tripled its income in the last 20 years , but Western Europe entered a major slowdown and if there will be a progress it will not exceed 1% yearly . Most of the predictions given by the World Bank or other financial institutions failed. Most of the banks and OECD underrate Poland in economical growth, I wonder why ? Who predicted that we will not fall into stagnation as the rest of Europe in the last years . They have had all the needed data to make a simple conclusion, as one of you stated it is a piece of cake "that economy" , lol.
InWroclaw 89 | 1,915
20 Jan 2014  #19
Are you surprised by the fact that Poles are becoming richer and richer and we don`t drive Fiats anymore ?

Yes. But richer or more geared (in debt) based on property value equity withdrawals ?
TheOther 5 | 3,710
20 Jan 2014  #20
Who predicted that we will not fall into stagnation as the rest of Europe in the last years .

And what were the reasons, may I ask? Is Poland a magical island which is not affected by the ups and downs of the global economy? Or could it be that a high number of emigrants combined with massive monetary transfers from the EU helped a "little"?
Polish Patriot
20 Jan 2014  #21
Regardless of the world crisis Poland did not enter the stagnation period , just slowed down . Don`t pay attention to that funds , they are so irrelevant for Polish economy that you can just disregard them . Their total net value is just Biedronka`s yearly turnover. Poland pays yearly contribution to the EU which is huge . British citizens are also big subsidies beneficiaries , so don`t point out Poland , you take also a huge share .

bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11216061

Luxembourg gets the most Euros from EU budget, which is 2365 Euros per capita . Poland gets only 160 Euros per capita , which is laughable . There are bigger EU suckers like Portugal , Greece, Hungary, Estonia - 416 Euros per capita , Latvia , Lithuania - 438 Euros per capita .
Harry
20 Jan 2014  #22
" British citizens are also big subsidies beneficiaries , so don`t point out Poland , you take also a huge share ."
In reality monia the British are net contributors to the EU budget, each one of them contributes some EUR 75 per annum (2011 data). Poles are net beneficiaries.
Polish Patriot
20 Jan 2014  #23
I should also point out that Poland was sucked by OFE( obligatory retirement plan ) funds which were brought to Poland as a part of sucking our country from money in the late 90-ties . The biggest beneficiaries of Polish money from OFE are Netherlands , UK , USA , Germany , France . They were sucking Polish budget from billions of Euros over the last 10 years . It was a plan to suck Poland from money implemented by World Bank and IMF. If you are interested you may read about such a scam in the internet .After 30 years of operating in Chile and sucking out the Chilean system they all ( retirement funds ) went bankrupt and now the taxpayers pay the burden .
TheOther 5 | 3,710
20 Jan 2014  #24
Don`t pay attention to that funds , they are so irrelevant for Polish economy that you can just disregard them .

EUR 106 billion are irrelevant? Don't be silly.

msp.gov.pl/en/polish-economy/economic-news/4015,dok.html

Quotes:

"In the light of the current arrangements, over the next seven years Poland will be the biggest EU funds beneficiary among all the member states, not only the biggest beneficiary of the Cohesion funds alone as has been the case so far."

"Consequently, the greatest peril connected with EU funds, according Lewiatan, is using the EU support to boost "short-term growth drivers". Such an approach "... in the long run leads to ... preventing Poland from developing its future competitive edge..."

Midod 1 | 5
20 Jan 2014  #25
What do you think?

You may think this have nothing to do with The Economy, but I believe it does:

I live in Poland and I think if the extremist minority (I hope it is a minority), the young Pro-slownik or Pro-Poland and anti-everyone else takes control, Poland will stay the same normal country and the development will stop in some point, because believe it or not, THE WORLD is run by mixed elite (european, indian, chinese, russian, rich arabs, and off course the big brother USA) so if you want to be one of them, you should be smart keep your culture of course you have right, but don't be stupid to think that muslims or indian or asian will invade your country, you need them, just take time to think of it, you need foreign investment, of course + the national companies, but you need arabs money, american money, asian money, so forget your old fights with russian or greman or new imaginary enemy (muslim) and SHARIA and crazy stuff, this rules aren't even applied in 99% of the arabic and muslim countries in Palestine, lebanon, egypt, jordan... muslim and christian live together and do business together so you should do so, Money have no religion ;) yes there is terrorist but in both sides unfortunately, make your own rules.

Protect your tradition and be proud of, proud of your roots and your religion, but be tolerant, this way Poland will have a bright future (socially and economically)

Take note of other nations USA, most UE contries, don't do the same mistake and open borders to everyone, see what you need and who you need to build your countries, but treat them well so they will give back and help you to be one of the best in UE as you dream!

I hope this wasn't long :)
Polish Patriot
20 Jan 2014  #26
EUR 106 billion are irrelevant?

It is a mere success propaganda as in the times of Gierek era . 100 billions is nothing for a country like Poland . Other countries will benefit more as what matters is investment per capita and where the money are invested .

Poland will build for that money few infrastructure investments ,but the thing is that if we want to use it we will have to pay for it ( toll fee) . So tell me in what way Poles will benefit from it if we have to pay for it in the end ? A person like you without any economical knowledge will never understand such coercion or maybe I underestimate you . Money from such contracts will go back to big banks and corporations , not Polish workers . Average Pole will not benefit from it . We lost more capital by entering EU than we will ever benefit from it . We lost a huge share of our industrial capacity . I don`t think about old unefficient factories , but I mean the lack of investments in the last 30 years . There are no foreign investments in Poland in our future economy on a large scale , they were just buying out stocks of Polish corporations .There are few investors who invested real money by creating industrial areas and parks , those are Japanese or German corporations . Domestic investors are the biggest investors that accelerate our future GDP and progress not EU funds .
TheOther 5 | 3,710
21 Jan 2014  #27
100 billions is nothing for a country like Poland

Well, then don't take them.
Monitor 14 | 1,821
21 Jan 2014  #28
Poland tripled its income in the last 20 years , but Western Europe entered a major slowdown and if there will be a progress it will not exceed 1% yearly

It's easier for underdeveloped country to grow, so your comparison with Germany growing 1% has no sense. Check
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convergence_%28economics%29

Regardless of the world crisis Poland did not enter the stagnation period , just slowed down

Main reasons for Poland avoiding stagnation are:
- fast speed of growing just before 2008.
- relatively small international exposure of Poland (small export and import)
- relatively big economy, so it has big inertia, meaning it's not so easy to go from fast growth to stagnation (and other way around too)

- "backwarded" banking system without modern structured lendings which started crisis.

All that says nothing about future speed of economic growth of Poland. Or maybe says that Poland was relatively closed economy and now it's opening itself (by increasing export), so next time may be hit harder by European crisis. It doesn't make Poland special as you try to suggest it here.
milky 13 | 1,657
21 Jan 2014  #29
Poland will overtake all western European countries by GDP PPP per capita

Poland will grow in spite of the fact that some don`t want her growth and in 2050 Poland will become one of the richest countries in Europe .

I understand how difficult it is for you to swallow a bitter pill, that Poland will become a rich country , one of the richest in the world .

Glory to Poland!

Why not just be happy with a major improvement, as of now looking at emigration and birth-rate the country is failing. This hysterical optimism reminds me of the patriot here on min 7

youtube.com/watch?v=KN0C6EgPv8o
monia 3 | 212
21 Jan 2014  #30
Main reasons for Poland avoiding stagnation are:

No those were not the reasons . The real reasons were that Poland has got own reasonable rules

The IMF and World Bank wrote a paper about lending in Poland at the end of 2006 and came up with an additional explanation: Poland's institutions were relatively unfriendly to creditors.

Let the western Europeans banks listen to IMF and World Bank and you will get a disaster . We are very "unfriendly" as always , haha. Secondly we didn`t buy junk real estate bonds from USA . Economy of USA went bankrupt long time ago . The have been printing empty money for a long time . They discovered how to fool other countries and let them buy junk bonds secured with real estate " bubble".

Our banking system is not modern as you call it it is healthy . Let World Bank and IMF fool you further.

It's easier for underdeveloped country to grow, so your comparison with Germany growing 1% has no sense.

Calling Poland underdeveloped country tells a lot about your mentality .


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