Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25

....maybe about that:


bundeswehr.de/en/organization/army/organization/multinational-corps-northeast

The Bundeswehr is already there and available as frontier guard!

The remains of one of the drones were found near my region. So the next time it could happen to my grandma's house or that of my other family members living in the countryside, I guess... My grandma could have not survived such damage like the one that happened to that house in Wyryki :( Thank God noone got killed or injured:

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Glad you and your grandmom are okay!

...I'm quite glad my grandmom is already gone....once in a lifetime was surely enough!

Thanks, BB... It hit too close to home to my liking, so to speak... 😡

It's horrific that they did that and no amount of orc bluster suggesting that it was Belarus or whoever will alter the fact that Putler ordered this. It's an appalling crime.


Nor could my mum if her living room collapsed like that. Her grandparents were both murdered in the WW2 blitzkrieg due to fascist bombs.

Thank God nobody was killed in Wyriki this time.

This was an escalation, and the next attack is sadly likely to be worse.

@jon357, I'm guessing the only reason why noone got hurt was because it was a living room and noone was sleeping at night there. The family can't go back to that house now though.

@Paulina
That looks likely.

If anyone had been in the bedroom above, they would certainly have been killed.

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The damaged house in Wyryki belongs to an older couple and they were sleeping upstairs after all, but, luckily, they got up earlier than usual in the morning and went downstairs. Less than an hour later a fighter jet shot down the drone and the debris hit their house while the man was watching news on TV about drones flying into Poland:

wiadomosci.wp.pl/to-w-ich-dom-uderzyly-szczatki-drona-przez-okno-patrze-leci-dach-7198751245212576a

The TV is getting more and more realistic these days.

@Torq, it's kind of surreal, isn't it...

Btw, English speaking social media is in a state of panic as if WW3 was about to start ;D and Poles are like:

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Ukrainian influence operations... They have hundreds of thousands of accounts under their control.

Today, their main newspapers have been discussing NATO's "impotent" response. On Twitter, all their bots are out in force, condemning Polish cowardice - and all the American and European Shiba Inu dogs bark in their support.

The country's leading newspaper, has a front page article discussing the meaning of Article V, and coming up with reasons for Poland's "pathetic" behavior.

Source: eurointegration.com.ua/articles/2025/09/10/7219899/

Last week, Ukrainians were fuming at Duda, because he admitted in an interview that Zelensky attempted to coerce him into admitting the earlier missile strike was Russian (when it was clear to all within 5 minutes that it was Ukrainian).

And before that, they were angry at Germany, for arresting in Italy the Ukrainian captain of the schooner used in the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline. Surprising this... since the Germans are such trembling weaklings that they still refuse to officially tie the two together. Ukraine executed a terrorist attack on Germany's vital national infrastructure, the culprits are in custody, and yet still Germany does nothing. If I was Ukraine - I'd be happy and keep quiet.

The only party that benefits from a Russian attack on Poland - is Ukraine. Follow the money.

That's quite postmodern really.


If you're trying to obfuscate by suggesting this is some sort of 'false flag', you won't succeed.

Ukraine have always behaved impeccably since the illegal and unprovoked invasion.

r**SSia however have carried out all sorts of confirmed provocations, fires, attacks, murders.

Don't try and pull the wool over people's eyes.

lol


We're just trying to figure out what exactly happened. Why are they so impatient? Chill the f*ck out, young Ukrainian Jedis. *rolls eyes*

I'm not saying it's not us, because I don't know this for a fact, but I would argue that if it is us - then it is either:

A) Accidental

B) A result of Ukrainian GPS/Cell tower spoofing, or other electronic counter measures (some other means of hijacking the drone controls).

The prevailing Ukrainian explanation of what happened, of course a sinister one, is that these drones were "probing" Poland's airspace to better plan potential future attacks.

The debris on the ground, however, does not support this. The Gerbera drones found so far are dummy decoys largely made out of foam, and contain no payload capable of collecting the type of intelligence Ukraine is claiming. The damage they've done, like punching through the roof of a small house, is consistent with a simple kinetic impact.

Why would Russia probe Polish airspace using drones that are not capable of optical/signals/measurement intelligence? Just watch from space, where Polish anti-air sites come online? I'm sure we know already, exactly where each Polish anti air battery is located. It's peacetime Poland, not wartime Ukraine.

Maybe, who knows, but that's not what I'm talking about... ;D For example, an American comedian posted about what happened in Poland at night with some dark humour and other comments were also like "why it's always Poland "and "it's September too" (like WW2) and so on. Some people waking up to the news this morning thinking that RuSSia attacked Poland and panicking and Poles having to explain to them that drones just flew in and noone died :P


Yeah, I've seen such comments too. Some claim that those are RuSSian bots on the other hand, so....yeah... ;D The internet these days... *sigh*


We'll see, we'll see.


Btw, that's the SMS I got today in the morning (we usually get such alerts about storms and not hostile drones, obviously):

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Attempts to confuse the issue by introducing irrelevant excuses.

Part of the m*sc*w playbook.

How is this non-relevant?

Ukraine possesses eye-watering electronic capabilities - far superior to Poland's, or in the rest of NATO. Of this you can be sure.

As you may know, the majority of Western drones supplied to Ukraine are useless on the battlefield. The lion's share of damage is done by Ukrainian systems, which are often updated on a WEEKLY basis to keep abreast of the pace of progress.

It has become a routine thing, to hack into a drone's video feed - allowing you to see exactly what the enemy sees, in real time.

It's a routine thing, for both sides, to hijack the controls and "land" an enemy's drone. So far, only fiber optic drones are resistant to these kind of takeovers.

It's fully plausible, that Ukraine could take control of 10-20 Russian drones and steer them in Poland's direction.

They have a million and one pragmatic reasons to do this. Russia has no reason to do this, except for very fanciful and imaginative ones.

Poles have had a few years to get used to having a war next door and have become a bit blasée and desensitised about it. The rest of Europe has been nervously waiting to see if 'that thing happening over there' turns into something they need to seriously worry about. The media has been making it sound like it might be.

Plus, Tusk said something like 'this means we are now living under the greatest threat of war since WW2' - not exactly Zimno Ogorek or indeed conducive to Zimno Ogorek mindstates?

Also, you've got Zelensky taking the most alarmist position possible and trying to use this as a way to make the rest of the world get involved militarily, as he always does. At least he's given up claiming Putin is about to blow up Chernobyl and (unless he's stopped) shower Europe with fallout.

It all stinks.

That's why it wouldn't be wise to act hastily.


Politicians are often drama queens.

*yaaaaaawn*

More obfuscation, straight out of the Putler playbook.

r*SSia did this, and there is no credible doubt. They did this for several reasons:

First: To test NATO's red lines and Trup's response.

Second: To create an an atmosphere of fear in Central Europe. Terror and the threat of war always breed political extremism. Extreme political parties, who openly or covertly sympathise with m*sc*w, could potentially gain an opportunity to strengthen their positions.

Third: The Kremlin hopes that the more Europeans discuss the need to strengthen their own armies and develop defence industry, the louder the appeasing voices calling to reduce aid to Ukraine will become.

Fourth: To attempt to fuel anti-Ukrainian sentiment. The Kremlin wants Ukrainians to be seen as a burden, not as allies in the fight against r*SSian aggression.

Finally: To prepare for larger-scale aggressive actions. In m*sc*w or in whichever of his several bunkers Putler is currently hiding,, scenarios for the next stage of the war are likely being calculated based on NATO's and Trump's' reactions. If NATO's response to the strike on Poland proves weak, Putler will see it as an invitation.

This is exactly how Nazi Germany, step by step, tested the world's readiness to respond - first in the Rhineland, then in the Sudetenland, then in Prague. Each time the free world convinced itself that "this is not yet war," that "this can still be endured". Putler wants appeasers. The appeasers must not prevail.


Of Lenin's mouldy corpse.

I will try to play devil's advocate... and imagine why Russia would do this - though this is hard to do.

1) The Kremlin senses that Donald Trump's patience is running out, and that he soon may throw in his support with the Europeans. Then, this is an attempt to raise the temperature, and simultaneously give pause to Trump (who's actually a very cautious person when it comes to these things), while making Poland doubt the credibility of America's assurances post-Nawrocki visit.

2) Demonstrate to Poland how full of holes their air defense is, and why they should sit down and shut the f*ck up, while various European crazies like Macron and Starmer are putting together stupid coalitions. Why? Because without Poland, any European operation in Ukraine will be a joke. Hungary and Slovakia have already ruled out making their airbases available. This leaves only the Romanians.

3) Put pressure on the Donald Tusk government, as "weak on defense" and "weak on Putin". Thereby providing a boost in the arm, for our conservative-aligned friends in Poland during the next elections. Tusk and Sikorski are annoying, and it would be much nicer to have friendlier people in power - maybe more like Fico and Orban.

4) in a truly 4D chess fashion - show the French and British why they got no business being in Ukraine. If Poland, with some of the densest air defenses in Europe - strengthened since the George W. Bush days, cannot stop a drone from flying 300 kilometers all the way to the Lodz Voivedstvo - then what can France or Britain do?

Poles have had a few years to get used to having a war next door and have become a bit blasée and desensitised about it. The rest of Europe has been nervously waiting to see if 'that thing happening over there' turns into something they need to seriously worry about. The media has been making it sound like it might be.

Plus, Tusk said something like 'this means we are now living under the greatest threat of war since WW2' - not exactly Zimno Ogorek or indeed conducive to Zimno Ogorek mindstates?

Also, you've got Zelensky taking the most alarmist position possible and trying to use this as a way to make the rest of the world get involved militarily, as he always does. At least he's given up claiming Putin is about to blow up Chernobyl and (unless he's stopped) shower Europe with fallout.

Pointless. Poland always doubts the credibility of all assurances. We were taught this by history (the hard way!).


Pointless. We know it's full of holes.


Hm... that actually makes sense.


It will be dense when the anti-drone systems are fully operational--at the moment it's leaky as we have just seen.

Poland can actually become "dense", unlike the United States or Russia.

This is why anybody who can do maths, knows that Trump's "Golden Dome" is a joke of an idea.

You cannot cover a continent-sized space with air defenses - as Ukraine has been proving with its refinery bombing campaign.

But Poland... Poland can become a big Israel if it invests enough.

Right now it seems very far away from it, given that a drone the size of a Volkswagen Beetle flew through 300 kilometers of airspace without being shot down.


Makes less sense, when you remember the structure of Tusk's coalition, and the fact that PiS has a president now. What we do, makes not only Tusk look weak, but Nawrocki also.

I'm not sure that Nawrocki is drinking champagne tonight - as President, this is an infraction that happened on his watch.

P2050, PSL and Lewica... hm... there are probably some Russian friendly politicians in the conservative wing of PSL and a couple of still active Lewica old-timers, but not nearly as many as in Konfederacja. Weakening Tusk and strengthening Konfa might indeed be beneficial for Russia.


I wouldn't say so. Nawrocki seems to be rather independent and gravitating towards Konfederacja but in such case... damn... some serious 4D chess here...

@Torq

Nawrocki is definitely a politician in the Putin mold. Putin was the first guy (out of those actually at the wheel) who made friends with ultras, biker gangs, and trade unions.

When I listen to Nawrocki, I feel like I am listening to a young Putin. Romania also had a guy like that, who got barred from running after he won in his first try.

I think Nawrocki and Putin speak the same language.

Working class boys, into healthy living and fitness, and adepts of the traditional societal order.

Nawrocki is constrained by the strait jacket of EU norms and regulations, so he appears a little less unhinged than Putin - but fundamentally it's the same guy, just 25 years younger, and without a spy background.

A bit of an unfortunate comparison..

30 years actually.

There are some similarities...





... but Nawrocki is definitely more coarse, without Putin's cunning and sophistication.

I really want Poland to do well - so I apologize for the wrong comparison.

If us, and Poland, will be at war at some point - I will be very upset with my government. I trust that you would feel the same in my position, and while there's time - do something to prevent anything like that happening.

He should not feel bad!

Even in Russia, we think Putin is some kind of demiurge, some Mephistopheles type figure.

We haven't had a guy like this since Stalin, and maybe before. He's a once in a century guy, and on the way to the top he ate many "dragons" that in other countries would be super powerful players (Khodorkovsky, Nemtsov, Kasyanov, Shaymiev, etc).

Putin has spent so long at the top, feeding on impossible wealth, power, and secrets - that he lives on a different plane than the average mortal.

Nawrocki has much time to catch up. Trump wants what Putin has. Xi calls him his "dearest bosom friend" and "teacher". Kim Jong Un says - "Great leader and soulful brother".

Haha!