Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25

For their own sake I fully agree, I just don't think they have their own countries best interest at heart nor the competency to be able to pull it off. They are disconnected from their own countries most struggling population.

While in other countries you have leaders from those groups or recruits people that are competent enough to hear their voices and know their situation to avoid internal disasters.

Poland will grow in significance in the region wether it will be comfortable for states around it or not. Cause Poland will be able to not only afford, but will have gained the trust to repay any loans it will take. Which was not a guarantee in 1989. Lot has changed and the resilience of the Polish people pushed Poland ever forward.

In the past Poland had to rely and directly control and influence a lot of populations east of it's native lands. (To Russians great annoyance) nowadays Poland can afford and win on a waiting game.

What state can afford to stop Poland? None at this moment. Those who spots this will most likely in this day and age try to bargain something for themselves and not invade like in the past.

Few points:
- A new proposal was to let the Russian have a free rein in Ukraine. (something they try to achieve with their military force at the prezent)
- The Nord Stream provided Russia with funding for its army and improved living conditions for its elite, while simultaneously tying German economic interests to Russian priorities.

Merkel didn't view the EU as it existed; for her, the EU was primarily Germany and France. Thus, the potential dangers of Russian interference in the Baltic states and Poland were not on her radar.

Assuming that these new proposals would leave Ukraine within Russia's sphere and that Ukraine would resist (both bold assumptions), she is correct that it would prevent war in Ukraine. However, it wouldn't stop Russian movements in the Baltic region or probing how far they can meddle in Europe.

To summarize, Merkel represented the failures of German policies and their supposedly brilliant plans. Russia disappointed them, China dealt with them coldly, and now they find themselves in trouble, desperately clutching onto policies that cannot possibly work. They are idiots.

Source? Merkel said that she wanted to save the Minsk II format, which would have left Ukraine in a much better situation than it is right now.


Worth remembering that Russia/Ukraine was but one of several European crisis she had to deal with, often simultaneously.

In 2015 she not only had to broker Minsk II, but also deal with Greek Tsipras government who came close to tanking the Euro and then later bailed out Southern Europe and yet again when she did not close the borders to the refugees arriving via Italy/Balkans. Then the came the Brexit fiasco and the Covid crisis.

Sure, in hindsight it appears that Putin/Russia is the one existential threat, but this was far from obvious when she was chancellor. An assessment pretty much all of Western Europe shared at the time.

What this bit*ch says means shlt.

She is the one who said: We lied to Russia for time.

How far from Russia is the US army, tanks, and rockets?

How far from the US is the Russian army?

Comapare these two numbers and don't talk like a moron...

M88 Hercules with drunk US crew was drowned into lithuanian swamp something like 20 ор 30 km from border, IIRC.

europeafrica.army.mil/ArticleViewPressRelease/Article/4139209/press-release-recovery-operations-in-lithuania-march-30-update/

Putin didn't intend to follow MINSK II, and in fact broke the ceasefire on the day it was signed and for an entire additional week as Russia wrapped up an offensive that was going ok for them that they didn't want to stop just because there was a ceasefire.

He made sure Minsk 2 was structured so that Russia got all they wanted out of it up front, like legal changes to legitimize the proxy separatist government, which Ukraine did do the initial part of as their part of the bargain.

But Russia never allowed the required elections or turning over the territory to Ukrainian troops. Which were all conveniently actions sequenced later than the concessions Russia wanted. Russia did go ahead and hold their own sham elections that did not meet the agreed upon standards there, though, in violation of Minsk 2.

And through it all the separatists regularly launched cease-fire violating attacks on Ukrainians whenever Putin wanted to increase tensions or try to provoke a Ukrainian response.

And the very biggest farce of Minsk 2 was to put in writing the farce that Russia was some kind of neutral power and that the fully-controlled-by-Russia separatist proxies were independent from Russia. They just wanted to be able to use their proxies expanded political power in Ukraine to interfere with Ukrainian politics. With the long term goal of bringing Ukraine even more under the control of Russia.

Russia never had any intention of ending their control of the separatist regions, certainly weren't going to allow Ukrainian troops to reclaim that territory as required of MINSK2 or allow any government to operate there that wasn't controlled by Russia as a proxy.

Let me ask you this, how many provisions of Minsk 2 did Russia actually comply with? Can you name any? Starting from the ceasefire they violated on the very first day.

Because Ukraine passed the law to initially recognize limited autonomy within the Donbas as required of them. After that it became clear, or was clear from before it was signed actually, that Russia had no intention of complying with Minsk 2 despite occasional attempts by Ukraine to get it back on track. All Russia ever did was try to pressure Ukraine into giving the concessions they agreed on while never offering a single concession Russia agreed on.

But hey, if you think this is wrong, tell me which of the concessions required from Russia from Minsk 2 did Russia give up.

Stupid Russophiles on here still insist that Russia is winning the war against Ukraine despite the fact that they have lost hundreds of thousands of men and that after 3 and a half years still only control 20% of Ukraine..... it's laughable, but this is what happened last weekend, not well reported by western media......Russia got a very bloody nose....

Stupid Russophiles need to WAKE UP!!!!

Just imagine a Russian base in Tijuana...WW3 in an hour...


This stupid Russophile insists that Ukraine is not getting C+4 back...ever...for the same reason why Germany is not getting Western Poland. Thanks you, Mr. Stalin.

Generally it's a good idea to look at whatever r*SSians say and assume the opposite is true.

Right now, their official line (and much huffing and puffing) is t9rubbish the Tomahawk missiles that Ukraine have been sent. They're also making veiled threats against the donors. Proof positive that they are very very scared.

And other good news is that Ukraine's counteroffensive is inflicting particularly heavy losses to orcs in a counteroffensive in eastern Donetsk. Mostly incinerating them in drone attacks.

Are you an idiot?

Let's imagine Putin suffered a sudden brain aneurysm and decided to listen to Korvinus....

Step 1: Russia withdraws, hands control over the border back to Ukraine, and patiently waits for Ukraine to do its part.

Step 2: Ukraine begins good faith negotiations with the LDPR separatists, and prepares for imminent elections?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Any person with two functioning brain cells understands that what Ukraine would do instead is:

1) Fortify the border

2) Jail every single separatist

3) Announce a regime of martial law in the "recently occupied territories"

4) Disqualify every single "unsuitable" candidate

-//-

Everything is simple.

1) Ukraine lost in 2014
2) Minsk II was essentially an instrument of surrender
3) Terms were forced on Ukraine
4) The sequence was dictated by the victor

You are trying to put everything on its head, and make it out as if Russia was supposed to act and behave like the loser.

Ukraine signed that document - because otherwise it would be destroyed as a sovereign state.

...because "Russia is losing" - at least according to Milo...

At that rate, the Russian army will be in Kiev in about a year. Then it will surrender...

In other words:

What it boils down to is the following. Ukraine was going the course that Putin's Russia didn't think Ukraine should go to. Some call that people of Ukraine wanted Ukraine to go the western course. Some think it's western meddling. I personally think it's the combination of both. Ultimately Putin was against that. Do we agree on this part or do you disagree?

If we agree, we only disagree on what's beneficial to the people of Ukraine. Submit to Putin's will, be neutral or even in the Customs Union and avoid the war or rebel and have the country destroyed.

@Korvinus

Putin was interested in Minsk II - in so far as it got him what he wanted, without massive bloodshed or destruction of property.

Merkel and Hollande convinced him, that they would act as guarantors - and would ensure the Ukrainians would follow through on their promises.

For his part, Putin represented that he will use all of his influence over the separatists to ensure they follow through on their commitments.

-//-

We didn't need it - Ukraine needed it.

This is why I earlier wrote that Minsk II was practically forced on to us (though it was a nominal instrument of surrender forced on Ukraine).

We were happy with it, so long as everyone understood it was a treaty of surrender.

In about a year they will be in the same place they have been since 2023 - that is 6km from Pokrovsk and knee deep in their own excrement.

I'm talking about the 30 percent that survive of course - the other 40 percent will be hopping on crutches round that beautiful North Lagos metro and 30 percent will be in zinc boxes

Cuba wanted to go the Soviet course and the US said no.

See how simple things can be when you have a very big fist?


Remember this:

Cows come to slaughterhouses. Slaughterhouses do not come to cows.

It wasn't though, was it...


Less than that. They just leave a lot of the corpses unretrieved for dogs and other animals to eat. It saves them having to pay compensation to the families.

Is this a Britishism or your personal quirk to doubt what you just said?

Pausible deniability?

In a way that would be good since it will bog them down nicely.

Better yet if they were 200 miles away, back in r*SSia.

This is how Western press wh*res report casualties. Quoting:

Heavy casualties: The fight for Pokrovsk has come at a high cost.

Analysts note that Russian forces have suffered some of their highest casualties in this area, but despite this, they continue their advances.

With no Ukrainian casualties, no wonder Russian progress is slow. Fvcking amazing...a war where only one side does all the dying...

What are the odds...

No we disagree.

The proximate reason for relations collapsing was less prosaic than some disagreement over "direction".

The most direct reason was broken promises. Completely unnecessarily broken promises.

After it became clear that the Yanukovich regime was finished, the Kremlin, Ukraine's new government, and Western European leaders - all agreed on a mutually acceptable solution. Under the arrangement, Yanukovich agreed to constitutional changes that would give more power to parliament, and promised to hold early elections in December of that year.

Instead of everyone going home, and getting ready for elections in the Fall - Ukraine's Right Sector and Svoboda (both fascists) called on their supporters to arrive at the Maidan Square for a "peace offensive".

20,000 Ultras descended on downtown Kiev.

By the end of the day, the president had fled the capital.

Political nobodies emerged from every crack and hole, hungry for their moment in the sun - and within another week the agreement struck between the EU, Ukraine, and Russia collapsed.

Russia felt betrayed. The West played fast and loose with the facts - and presented the events to us as a fait accompli.

This was too much, for the Kremlin, and within another few days things were in full swing.

--///--

Ukraine simply doesn't behave in adult fashion when it comes to Russia. They feel they can do whatever they want - that there are no rules for them.

Broken promises on gas payments. Broken promises on Black Sea fleet basing. Broken promises on providing equal opportunity for Pro-Russian parties. Broken promises even on political arrangements that we hammered out in partnership with their EU friends.

Totally irresponsible country.

That's because they have different tactics

North Nigerians - get shitfaced drunk then run towards enemy lines with no air cover using old rifles and with body armor designed for WW2

Ukrainians - wait for them in well fortified positions and pick them off with precision weapons supplied by the advanced democracies of the world plus some of their own excellent innovations

An article written especially for people like you:

foreignaffairs.com/russia/how-russia-recovered

It's free. No pay-wall.

The Russian stock market took a nose dive over the last two days - after statements made by our Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs - which indicated relations with the United States have completely collapsed.

This is in reaction to Trump handing over the Tomahawks.

Jesus Christ... this war is never gonna end.

I suppose things have to get really, really bad... before they can get any better.

-//-

So it goes...

Now - I suppose - Iran and North Korea are bound to get some sophisticated goodies in their Christmas stocking...

... and round and round it goes!

This revealed that (1) Trump is just another moron, or (2) that his balls are firmly is an MICC vise.

Either way, as I already said so many times, Putin and Russia should NEVER, EVER trust the US and the vassals.

If I am the only one saying this here...I don't give a fvck...I have been right so many times in the past...

@Novichok

Trump just listens to the last person that whispered in his ear.

This has been established.

If him and Putin get personal time again - things will again normalize.

Then Zelensky will get in front of him, and things will again go downhill.

Cms is not an idiot. He's stubborn and annoying but idiot he's not. Therefore, it is completely and utterly impossible that he believes that drunken Russians blindly storm the gates whilst Ukrainian sharpshooters sip tea behind sandbags and pick them off one by one. Even my six-year-old who gets all his military knowledge from his friend Ivan from Ukraine knows that this is not what's happening. He's just winding you up - don't fall for it.


What did I tell you? As much as I would love to be wrong, not only is this war not going to end soon but other countries will enter it (or rather be dragged into it).

russia could leave Ukraine tomorrow.... no on will keep you there.....

but russians are too retarded to do that....

what a useless country full of useless people!