Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 21

I guess Rubio especially, an experienced politician, didn't want to put his name to this shameful idea at the same time as the NNs are brazenly bombing civilians

Witkoff is clueless, way out of his comfort zone, which is selling hotels to other rich old dudes. Who cares what he does.

Won't the intelligence capability be developed by Europe anyway ? so the cost is not the only issue - there is no way they will want to keep relying on the US, especially with Pisshead Pete in charge of the Pentagon and Ketamine Musk in charge of the hardware.

Zelensky really is a complete fool. He's doing a great job at killing his country, through his stubbornness.

The deal offered by America is a great one. Why?

1) De Jure Recognition of Loss of Crimea - Ukraine won't ever control it anyway, so what's the harm in admitting something that is already obvious to every man, woman and child? Standing on principle, in this question, is totally unnecessary. Finland ceded territory to the USSR, and to this day everyone considers them to have won.

2) De Facto Recognition of Loss of Other Occupied Territories - this "concession" has practically no negative consequences for Ukraine - at all! Again - it already does not control the occupied territories - and the whole world can see this. Nothing is being asked from Ukraine, except to informally recognize that it doesn't control those territories - not legally, but physically. I mean... am I missing something here?

3) NATO - Ukraine will never enter NATO, so what's the harm in admitting something that is already obvious to every man, woman and child? What's the alternative? Close your ears, lie down on the ground, and kick your feet furiously until NATO changes its mind? Another, super easy concession for Ukraine to make.

From a pragmatic point of view - Trump is really offering Ukraine one of its last lifelines, in exchange for... Ukraine behaving at least a little bit realistically for 5 goddamn minutes.

If I was Ukraine, I would grab this deal and run.

Or he knows something that we don't know.

What Ukraine "gets" if it is willing to play ball:

1) Russia returns those territories, adjacent to the Kharkov/Russia border, which were captured during an offensive last year.

2) The Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant becomes a neutrally administered territory (by Americans presumably), and will sell electricity both into Ukraine and into Russia. Prior to the war, this single plant provided 25% of all electricity generation in Ukraine.

3) Ukraine will have unimpeded use of the Dniepr River, along those stretches of the river where control is contested between Russia and Ukraine. The river is a major artery of commerce in Ukraine.

4) Ukraine will become host to a European peacekeeping contingent, plus another force from some unidentified neutral country.

5) Ukraine will receive reconstruction funds (not clear from whom) and aid aimed at closing its budget gaps.

What Russia gets:

1) Recognition by the United States and Ukraine that Crimea is an official territory of Russia.

2) Recognition by the United States and Ukraine that Russia controls approximately 20% of Ukraine through "temporary" occupation.

3) NATO membership ruled out for Ukraine (but EU explicitly allowed)

4) Lifting of all sanctions imposed since 2014

5) Some unnamed business opportunities through working with the United States and Ukraine where "we will all make a fortune" (according to Trump).

He knows that this "deal" won't deter Russia from invading again in a few years after it rebuilt its' army.

It certainly has negative consequences for anyone living in occupied territory - most of them don't want to be controlled by NN Nazis and live in pitiful conditions with crooked local warlords skimming off the remaining bits of wealth.

It's not one of Ukraine's last lifelines - despite the regular predictions of Ukraine's collapse, the NN losers have managed to move their home made vodka distilling equipment precisely 1km closer to Pokrovsk since last September. The last time they claimed any settlement big enough to have a sit down bus station was more than a year ago. Meantime the Ukrainians are capable of hitting well behind NN lines and will not need Us weapons or Golden Cow's permission to do so.

not one sanction shall be lifted. they are not hurting the NNs anyway, so no need to lift them.

@Bobko
My take on it too. Anyone thinking this is not a deal Ukraine should take is either retarded, or an idiot with a death wish. If the US walks, Ukraine could fall completely.

Zelensky is just an idiot. Really. His comedy was not even good. The guy got elected as a pease maker, and now he continues to extend the war and death. If he walks away, this is likely his end.

Guys, guys... come on, what peace? What talks, what concessions?

Lavrov is talking through his arse (again) about "the EU openly seeking to revive the European ideology of Nazism"...

mid.ru/en/press_service/minister_speeches/2010195/

... so they are preparing for a prolonged war, probably against European NATO as well.

However, I fear that "denazifying" the EU may prove a bit more difficult than "denazifying" Ukraine. Time to stop trembling with fear and end this farce. If the world ends, it ends. It's bound to end one day anyway.

You are right, at the moment no one wants peace. At least that is my impression.

You go first.

Lavrov is reportedly angry that he's being sidelined in favor of a bunch of spies.

Rubio is angry that some Manhattan real estate developer is usurping his job as Secretary of State (technically the second most powerful position in US government - above Vice President).

As reported by the WSJ and others, Russia's main negotiators are spies - Sergei Beseda being one of the most prominent ones in the delegation (he was heavily involved in the prisoner swap negotiations which brought back Evan Gershkovich and others). This is because after diplomatic relations were practically cut, Biden and Putin agreed that the FSB and CIA would keep communications lines open.

So Lavrov is a little bit pissed, that he's being denied his role of a lifetime, and reportedly worried that the spies will muck everything up.

Russia should follow my advice...

Kill 'em then celebrate. Don't talk. Talking makes them equal.

The US and the USSR didn't talk in 1945. They dictated.

We have to "talk", or otherwise pretend like we are engaged in conversation. Ukraine has to be made to look like the unreasonable one - not Russia.

If Trump removes all the sanctions imposed since 2014 - as promised - that's worth "playing the game" for.

1) Russia can ride this war out entirely on its own, but still emerge seriously weakened - likely for decades. In the end, not even the United States - can survive in complete isolation. Some contact with the outside world is necessary.

2) Russia can play at "salami" style tactics, and slice off only as much as it can currently eat and digest - and not attempt anything more. This I think is the prudent way forward. After all - even Poland could not be swallowed in one sitting, but demanded three courses. If we gain the United States as an ally, and an investor, this can only make us stronger. It will also intensify the competition for Russia between China and the United States. At this moment in time, China simply cannot afford to lose its largest and most powerful ally (by far). China needs every single friend it can find, ahead of the fight ahead.

Unfortunately this is what russia always does. 🙈

Hehe, reserve anti-aircraft defense - first to fight!


Apparently :)


...

Come on... you are a smart guy - I know you would do the same.

Never take on more burden than you are able to lift. Pace yourself. Chew your food. All this is solid advice that applies in all fields of life.

Ukraine will also have a chance to prepare - one has to not forget this. They claim - that this year their domestic arms production will be equivalent to $35B, when it was less than $2B in 2021.

Their main problem the past two years, has been retreats behind their primary defensive lines. A respite, will give them a chance to build a new Maginot Line.

They now know the trick of attacking through Belarus, so you cannot surprise them with that anymore.

If Russia tries to reopen the war at some point, and make another attempt at a decapitating blow - it will be a supremely complex symphony of events. It will have to involve fording the Dnieper around Kherson. Probably again aerial insertions deep behind enemy lines. Special forces working for months or weeks ahead of the main invasion.

Russian military journals are already discussing how to avoid the mistakes of February-March 2022 in a new attempt.

But just for historical context - when the Soviet Union had to re-enter Right-Bank Ukraine, after the string of German losses in places like Stalingrad, Kursk, Kharkov, Donetsk, and Crimea - it still cost over 1 million men dead just to cross the river.

The Dniepr is a mighty, mighty river - kilometers wide in most places. Crossing that and establishing a durable bridgehead on the other side is essentially a D-Day level operation.

The only reason we were able to take Kherson in February 2022, was because the Ukrainians ran away like cockroaches, and left the Antonovsky Bridge fully intact and undefended. Our guys just drove across the bridge in a long column of armor and men. Soon as the Ukrainians began working at that bridge, we had to start planning our retreat.

It is easy to avoid those mistakes for the NN so called special forces

Bring some ammo
Bring a GPS
Put some fuel in your vehicles
Stay sober (hardest of all)

How can they hope for a successful attack with drunk kids holding crappy ex Soviet guns ?

Did they do even one week of planning last time ?

OK. Talk, kill, and dely...until you can dictate...

Whatever you do, DO NOT TRUST Western Euro scum. Trump is OK. We just don't know for how long.


What??? After three years, with Russia's rockets, Ukraine still has weapon factories? I really don't get it...

None of these were problems. Instead:

1) The airborne that took Hostomel expected help to arrive within literal hours.

2) Instead it took more than a day for the mechanized forces driving down from Belarus to arrive. Why? Because there were so many of them they literally spent hours waiting in traffic jams on a two lane roadway surrounded by dense forests on both sides.

3) Miraculously, the paratroopers managed to hold out an entire day, surrounded by the bulk of Ukraine's forces in the North collapsing on their position. The mechanized forces reached them, and helped them secure Hostomel. But by this point it was too late. The runway had been damaged, and hundreds of further reinforcement flights were cancelled.

Key factors that ruined things for us:

1) Americans warned the Ukrainians about 24 hours ahead. This allowed them to evacuate their army and air bases. Russian missiles fell onto a bunch of empty locations.

2) The dense forests on each side of the road, that created traffic jams. One of the things I read, is that if we do it again, we will cut a path through the forest 100 meters wide on either side, to prevent Ukrainian ambushes and increase throughput. Helicopters equipped with suspended electric saws will help.

3) Earlier army reforms had produced an army format totally unsuited to this type of warfare. We entered the war using Battalion Tactical Groups, but have now effectively reverted back to divisions and corps. The independent battalions were well equipped in terms of firepower, but were very thin on men. As soon as they lost a hundred or so men, their combat effectiveness fell to approximately zero.

I could keep going and going, but having a GPS and staying sober were certainly not the main concerns.


Like Nazi Germany circa 1944 - they have moved many things very deep underground. Many Soviet manufacturing facilities were built in hardened fashion, to resist any strikes. An example is OKB Yuzhnoye, the builder of Soviet ICBMS.

If there ever was a serpent speaking with a forked tongue, you fit the description, no doubt about it. For months, you were drumming about the evil of tariffs and the adverse effects on humanity. Now that President Trump is proposing a milder form of tariffs, in your hateful mind, the effects on society are just as severe.I know you are not able to form a coherent opinion. Have you ever considered Trump's genius where he keeps all of you mental midgets confused, imbalanced, running like
The mystified family of Pawian's relatives is precisely what Trump had planned all along.

Helicopters with chainsaws on ? Right, sounds like from those Wacky Races cartoons

We see plenty of new highways here in Poland - takes them about a year to cut 100 metre paths

I am guessing the only realistic option would be a missile strike on the President's palace. Problem these days is that Ukraine can easily hit big NN cities in retaliation and in the next conflict I doubt either side will hold back

Just feel sorry for all the young families on both sides paying the price for Putler's colonial ambitions

How about trains to and from?


Russia doesn't have colonies.

Donbass and Crimea asked to join the Russian Federration and their applications were approved.

Case closed...unless you are a stupid Polak...

Yes in peacetime, with a labor force of a few hundred men working on a single patch at a time.

In WW2, armies would build new railroads and new pipelines within weeks or months.

As you probably know, in WW1 Germany and France were producing several million artillery rounds PER MONTH. Now they cannot build several hundred thousand in over a year.

If you have hundreds of thousands of men at your disposal, and unlimited money, you could clear a 100 meter path through forests within days.

In the same way, within military academia, people are discussing what China would do if blockaded by the United States. The obvious answer is that it would turn to Russia for all needed supplies. The problem there, is that China has been refusing to build all the pipeline and rail links that we were pressing them to build. Finally - the question - how fast could China build pipeline and rail connections to Russia, to receive rapid supplies?

In a normal environment, a Chinese-Russian pipeline may take as much as ten years to build. In a wartime environment, people say it could be done in months.

You simply do not imagine the resources granted to military planners.

But North Nigeria does not have unlimited money

And unlike WW2 those poor saps would be chopping down trees under drone and missile fire

It is one of the maddest plans i have heard and shows contempt for the soldiers lives (being as those soldiers are regularly raped and extorted by their commanders, we know what the NN command thinks of them)

Poor russians... they didn't get to kill as many Ukrainians as they wanted.... boo hoo.... do you even read your posts and understand how normal (that is, non-russians) perceive them?

I thought Russians now recruiting soldiers in wheel chairs,maf roll for it they pay 2000$ a month now with their handicap accessed tanks lol.

As far as Rubles are concerned we do have unlimited money.

Too much, and it will drive wild inflation, and the average Russian's purchasing power will quickly erode... but the government will still be able to pay its bills.

The Russian government will always be able to pay its bills, even if it means every Russian descends to a survival diet. Same as in America.

Zelensky doesn't decide alone if any treaty offer will be rejected, right? There is still a whole gov in place in Kiev....

But the other question stands too....Putin has been proven to be untrustworthy....to break any former treaty at will!

Maybe it still hangs on Washington, Trump putting real US power behind any treaty, compelling the participants to better adhere to it?

What a crazy situation!

The problem is that russia is known for treachery.... it's your brand. So anyone with a 3 digit IQ knows russia will attack again.

russia is a cancer... it needs to be excised.