Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 20

Not while Trump or Vance are in charge.

I also didn't think that RuSSia would invade Ukraine in my lifetime, but here we are...


People in the West seem to think that RuSSians think/reason like us/them... They have no idea...


Exactly. And I'm telling you that being in NATO is worth only as much as the ability or the will of NATO to defend their member states.


You don't know what you believed before 2014?

... and Russia will invade and then claim it was in self-defense.

Such "self-defense plans" existed and Poland was a part of them. Landing craft - which we had plenty - are not a particularly defensive weapon. Also, Kukliński said that Soviet plans were "unambiguously offensive" in their nature, so I don't know how you can infer that they would be enacted only in case of first nuclear strike or conventional invasion by NATO.

Actually, conventional invasion by NATO wouldn't make any sense at all. Soviet/Warsaw Pact had immense advantage in tanks and artillery, precisely because our armies were built with offensive, not defensive, in mind.


Especially with Trump or Vance in charge! Republicans (and definitely Trumpists) are much more likely to sh*t on Article 5 than Democrats. Damn, they even talk openly about leaving NATO altogether.

Precisely... and Russia will most certainly test both the ability and the willingness of NATO to die for Vilnius or Warsaw. Their nuclear weapons will let them control the escalation ladder and the US with Trump in charge is as dodgy an ally as it gets.

Ask some Americans on this forum, those who are not crazy isolationists like Novi.

I am just as an isolationist is the average Pole. I don't see any Polish military protecting the US in Texas. WTF?

@Ironside
The US is not sending forces to Europe like they have done twice before if a NATO country is invaded. The would send forces to other NATO countries to protect the borders from further advances. Article 5 is not a commitment to forces, but a commitment to aid. IF Latvia or another country is invaded, Americans will not be sent to die for them. Americans will be sent to Poland and other NATO countries to stop the advance. Russia and the US do not want a direct conflict. No one wins that. NATO is a "defensive" alliance.

I believe Europe has every reason to be a little paranoid over Russia. But Europe has ignored their responsibilities to NATO funding, and to their own defense inspite of having this paranoia. And now they are playing catch up.

Russia has a few days to wrap up Kursk, and accept the cease fire, or I really believe Trump sends so many missiles that Ukraine can really hurt Russia's oil production. Without the oil production getting to the shadow fleet, Putin will lose funding for the war machine. He will also show Trump that there was no mutual respect, which will **** Trump off more than ten Zelenskys $hitting in the Oval Office. Trump is a New Yorker, and there is no real New Yorker who is ever going to let someone end the conversation without them getting the last fvck you.

@Novichok, Poles (and others) were fighting alongside your soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan.


You can't be serious... Who's going to attack the US? Mexico? lol 🤦


Yup.

@Torq
All armies are built to be offensive the tactics employed within the strategy determines whether they fight a defensive or offensive war/battle.
I remember watching some British adventurer describing his time in the British Army on the Rhine as consisting solely of learning how to reverse a tank.


That would be grand if that was all NATO did but...


Da Fcuk it is...Everyone buys this defensive crap, a perfectly executed piece of propaganda, the Ministry of war etc rebranded a la Orwell.

China is as likely to attack the US as Russia is Poland.

The people who have sent terrorists and killers drugs like fettnyl into out country for starters not to mention their spies.


Correct as the United States didn't have a president when Russia attacked Ukraine.
Now we do for at least the next twelve years.


And some people did so you were wrong and they were right.
Either case totally out of your control so why fret about it every day.
Little rocket man and his Karen sister in N. Korea threaten to nuke the U.S.A every other day.
I don't even give it a second thought anymore.
Do you ever hear NATO. or China threatening with their nukes ?
You need to calm down about things that you have no control over.

@Barney
If NATO was an offensive alliance, there would be no Article 5. That said, I do understand why Putin feels NATO is a threat since it has broken verbal promises not to expand. If Mexico brought in Russian troops, the US would see it as a potential attack. The US is ready to go into Mexico now for letting the illegals and drugs through the border, imagine what would happen if it were military. NATO's actions do not support their words in most cases.

The logic doesnt follow from the start to the end of those words. Offensive alliances can and do have mutual defence pacts just as NATO has.

@Barney, but the reason for the creation of NATO was the defence against the Soviet Union. So NATO is defensive in its principle.


Nah, Barney, you're not going to weasel out of this :)))

Answer my question, please - did you believe that RuSSia had plans or will to invade Ukraine before it actually happened in 2014? I didn't ask you if you now think that they had plans to do that. I'm asking you what you believed before 2014.


No, it isn't and the US doesn't border China. But Poland borders RuSSia.


No, but I hear RuSSia threatening with their nukes. And, sorry, but comparing the threat from far away, small and weak North Korea towards such a country like the US with the threat for Poland which borders the biggest nuclear power on Earth (RuSSia) is pretty ridiculous.

Do you mean the country that went out of business 34 years and dissolved the Warsaw Pact?

Japan doesn't have a border with the US and still manged to attack?

I want 100,000 Euros in Hawaii.

They are small but they are not weak and they have ICBM's with nuclear warheads that are very capable of striking Washington D.C. or any other place in the U.S.A. so no, not ridiculous at all but very much a reality.
Plus they are batshit crazy people.


Because they are a bully and that is all they have to play the tuff guy with to save face.

Putin was very precise in desribing when Russia would go nuclear.

This is all good and well but you still didn't explain why you think that the Soviet/Warsaw Pact war plans which Kukliński saw, and described them as "unambiguously offensive" in their nature, were supposed to be executed only in case of either first nuclear strike or conventional offensive by NATO.


Exactly! Warsaw Pact was not a defensive pact. Let's cut the Orwellian propaganda cr*p. Soviets were not on the defensive in Hungary in 1956 or Czechoslovakia in 1968 (although they were "defending socialism"), they were not on the defensive in eastern Poland in 1939 (although they were "defending Ukrainian and Belarussian minorities"). You see that's the charm of Russians, Barney - they are always defending something. Never the invaders. Never aggressors.

Their national motto is 'мы не агрессоры'. :)

Poland was an aggressor in Iraq.

Its a discussion board, why would I weasel out of anything?
I answered your question by describing the taking of Crimea and arming the Donbas insurgents as well executed operations. For the slow* I'll explain, that means there were plans and I along with almost all observers knew this would happen after the events in Kiev meaning that I believed there were plans to invade Ukraine.

@Barney, I wasn't asking about the time after the events in Kyiv. I meant before that. Did you believe in 2012 or 2010, etc. that RuSSia would invade Ukraine?


It didn't go out of business, it just shrinked a bit and now it's called RuSSia.


The US wasn't a nuclear superpower back then. Noone would dare to attack you now. Just like noone would dare to attack RuSSia. And that's why those two countries can attack smaller countries as they please (but not each other).


They are if compared to the US.


The fact that there is some threat doesn't mean it's in any way comparable. RuSSia could nuke Europe into oblivion.

@Torq
We could go round in circles all day with you unable to produce evidence to support your position and inventing increasingly credulous explanations. The proof required to support your first strike doctrine (by the Warsaw pact) would be lying in the archives somewhere. To date no evidence has been found in any archive anywhere to give credence to this.

The Warsaw pact was as defensive as NATO was/is. Britain, the US and France to name three were on the defensive in the various wars they fought?
The actions the colonial powers took in reclaiming their empires was mirrored by the USSR when they were reclaiming their former colonial territory.

I realise that this appears to put me in the Stalin was misunderstood camp, thats not the case.

Warsaw Pact was the only military alliance ever that wages wars solely against its own members.

You're talking about individual countries now, not NATO.


What does it have to do with NATO?


You could say that it was "internally offensive"... lol

@Paulina
Thats a very difficult question to answer.

The evolution in relations between Ukraine and Russia took many twists and turns. The series of corrupt elections as adjudicated by the OECD were cheered by one side or the other depending on the political bias of the commentator/nationality. After Putin's 2008 speech it was crystal clear Russia had plans to invade Ukraine.

Pauline, I have already answered the same question several times I cant make it any clearer I dont know what you want me to say.


They are all in the same club. Why did Poland invade Iraq? because they were in the same club...

@Korvinus
Not true, Germany for example turned on many of its allies in WW2, Poland stabbed Ukraine in the back when they were allies. There are other examples

Oh, come on. Sure, it must be lying there somewhere but some documents regarding World War 2 haven't been published yet so how can you expect that everything connected with Cold War is declassified and freely available to everyone? It might be decades before we see most of the things which are still classified today.

I gave you the words of a man who was a very high Warsaw Pact officer with access to secret war plans - he saw them and passed them to Americans. I am quite sure that the US considered those documents credible as they considered Kukliński their most valuable asset in the socialist block. If Kukliński is not a credible source for you, then there is nothing better I have at the moment.

And before that speech it wasn't?


So? Britain, the US and France would be doing what they were doing no matter if NATO existed or not.


No, "the club" didn't agree to invade Iraq. That's why the US had to gather the "coalition of the willing" consisting of different countries, including from outside of NATO.

@Torq
I am not saying the man is unreliable, I have no evidence to support such a claim. All I am saying is that currently there is a lack of evidence supporting a first strike (Conventional or otherwise) doctrine or policy by the Warsaw pact. What yer man describes as overwhelmingly offensive would be normal in any army.

History is continously changing and who is to say some document will never emerge confirming your belief. I just find it strange that no hint or reference to such a policy has been made public from any of the Former Warsaw pact countries that are now in NATO.


No it wasnt crystal clear.

Your thinking appears to be that from the second the CIS was established Russia was planning to invade and subjugate all other member states. I cant change your mind.

Poland was one of the very few nations tooking to curry favour with the USA, there was nothing moral about their or Ukraine's participation in that sordid adventure.

Russia had no plans to invade Ukraine until Ukraine started shlttalking about NATO.

Russia said NO just as the US said NO to the Soviet rockets in Cuba. Poland said NO to WMDs in Iraq and invaded Iraq.

Are all Euros short-memory morons?

Putin issues warning to foreign mercenaries
Irregular combatants committing crimes against civilians on Russian soil will be treated as terrorists, the president has said

Show no mercy and execute them on live TV. Western a-holes first.