Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe.

Actually it is not. In the Middle East only Iran has a lower birth rate. With a total fertility rate of 1.51, Turkey now makes fewer babies per capita than France, Bulgaria or Romania.

This is according to the Polish Centre for Eastern Studies: osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2024-08-07/turkey-a-looming-demographic-crisis

In big cities like Istanbul - Turks don't make babies at all.

Also, Tacitus is right - their economy is in the dumps. However, Erdogan has since been forced to appoint a normal central bank head, that has begun to implement orthodox policies aimed at reining in inflation and fx volatility. There was simply no more energy left in the Turkish economy, for him to continue his wild experiments with Erdonomics.

Still - Turkey faces massive problems with youth unemployment (on a Spanish/Italian scale) and stagnating incomes. The only people that do well in Turkey are exporters and people from the tourism sector. They benefit from a cheap lira, and the fact that their earnings are largely in Euro or USD.

So it may seem fantastic while visiting as a foreigner, but it is certainly not nearly as fun for the locals.


You pointed out Eastern Europe and Scandinavia as opponents of resuming energy imports, but you forgot to mention the main one. The United States.

By far the greatest beneficiary of the shutdown of Nord Stream I & II, and older pipelines - were the American producers of LNG, and operators of American LNG export terminals like Chenniere and Venture Global.

As much as Trump is in love with Putin, this is one the victories over Russia that he likes to tout. Biden did too.

Europe represents the deepest and most expensive gas market in the world. Before their access to Europe, American companies were struggling to sell their gas for a small fraction of the price they now sell it for to Europe. In some instances - the price difference is 10X between what they were getting and what they are earning now.

Resuming supplies from Russia means the market goes back to its old mix of 30-40% Russia, 20-30% Norway, and rest from places like Algeria and Azerbaijan. It means American terminals, sitting on the Gulf of Mexico, now have to ship freight to Asia - where prices are often worse than in Europe, and the journey much longer.

Trump got elected, in part, on the promise of ushering in an era of "American energy dominance" and "Drill, Baby Drill" as he says. Killing a bunch of American oil and gas companies, and leaving the gulf coast littered with shuttered terminals kind of conflicts with that idea.

I think if Germany starts importing gas through Nord Stream again, it will work for a few months, and then it will mysteriously explode again. And again nobody will be able to say who did it, or for what reason, and instead everyone will have strong amnesia.

Growth, not birth rate.


Finally you're beginning to grasp it.

Gas from North Nigeria to Western Europe willl never be more than it is now. Only less.

This growth is a joke, you can't be serious.

I checked just now - the key interest rate in Turkey is 42.5%. For more than half a year it was at 50%. This is the price for all of Erdogan's mucking about with artificially low interest rates in prior years, and constant increases to the Turkish minimum wage.

Fancy buying an apartment with a 42.5% mortgage, Jon? Leasing a car? Financing a TV or refrigerator?

Inflation in February was 39% in annual terms, a slight improvement from 42% in January.

This rampant inflation, means that prices in Istanbul are approaching London and Paris levels, while Turks earn on average only $13,000 a year. Average Turks can not afford to eat out, let alone visit any of their country's famed resort towns.

I can also draw all sorts of fantastic GDP growth numbers, but for normal people it is these metrics which are key for judging the economy's health.

Like I said - tourism and exports (although tourism is a type of export) are where it's good. Turkish airlines for example - is killing it. It gets paid for its tickets in euros and dollars, while paying its staff pennies in Lira.

Turkish textiles are doing great. Turkish defense companies are doing great. And so on, and so forth.

However, you can't build an economy for 85 million people on tourism and manufacturing. Modern economies are dominated by services, and most of the population works in services. For them life is sh*t.

Erdogan has a Sultan's understanding of economics. Manufacturing exports are surging - I must be doing a great job! People's wages are stagnating? Why let me double them by decree! Housing has suddenly become unaffordable? I'll force the banks to loan to people at artificially low rates!

@jon357


Chaos is not the issue. But if most of the news outlets are directly or indirectly controlled by the government, and the state-run media is almost exclusively advertising for Erdogan, it is hard to say that those conditions are fair.

Turkish election 'free but not fair', say international observers

euronews.com/2023/05/30/turkish-election-free-but-not-fair-say-international-observers

"Erdogan received nearly 33 hours of airtime on the main state-run TV station, according to opposition members of the broadcasting watchdog, while his presidential opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, received 32 minutes."


It is really not. Those countries haven't imported that much Russian fossil fuels to in absolute terms to begin with, so their embargo by themselves won't have much effect. And they lack the means to enforce an embargo via the EU. Even prolonging the sanctions is not a sure thing.


Yeah, I can see Meloni telling this to her voters. It may make you feel good to write those words, but they are far removed from reality.


It helps being a founding member of the EU.

In all seriousness, the only scenario in which a EU-membership of Turkey is remotely feasible would be one in which Erdogan's successor implements a decade-long democratic reform process and settles all territorial disputes with other European countries to the latters satisfaction. Which I don't see happening.

It really is and no they aren't.

And why do you deliberately remove posters' names from the quotes?


Wise actions have their rewards. Foolishness means that countries lose out.


If she loses, all the better.


As were the U.K. who left and most other major members. Founding is irrelevant and a Poland (who joined after) are not.


Let Greece compromise. Türkiye is more important and more stable. Plus it's a growing economy rather than a tourist kleptocracy.

Of course there's no reason to link the Coalition of the Willing to the EU. After all, the country leading it isn't a member any more...

Indeed, Germany will make itself high again on Russian gas and oil.
What was your question again? Why not Germany?
In the same way that you don't need Turkey in your German EU, Poland doesn't need Germany in our Alliance because you are not fit for membership. Your interests do not align with those of those countries that would be members.
Tureky is good enough for us. I hope that answer your question.

The University of Wurzburg produces an annual democracy index. The tiers are "working democracy", "deficient democracy", "hybrid regime", "moderate autocracy", and "hard autocracy".

Guess where Turkey ranks? It got rated a "moderate autocracy", and landed 137th out of 176 countries ranked. Russia is on 144st place.

Some countries that ranked higher than Turkey? Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, and Lebanon. Kyrgyzstan is a deficient democracy, whereas Pakistan and Lebanon have "hybrid regimes".

So... Turkey is about as democratic as Russia. Also, it's engaged in the ethnic cleansing of a minority group, both within its own borders and in neighboring Syria. Also, it allies itself to the most odious fundamentalist organizations in the region - that even countries like Saudi and UAE do not recognize and view as terroristic.

Source: democracymatrix.com/ranking

Geez Germany likes to waste resources on some nonsense. Wait, isn't that index showing to the German people and the world that Germany is a model of democracy? Aha, I understand its purpose now.
Do they, not teach them at those German universities, if you make unilateral decisions you need to face their consequences alone, and asking for solidarity in such circumstances is considered rude?

I agree these rankings are nonsense, but we have Jon here - mighty defender of Erdogan and simultaneous lover of democracy.

I wanted to show Jon who his idol really is. If Jon thinks it is unhygienic to deal with Russia, then it should apply to Turkey as well.

You can tell by Bobkos shrill reaction that a military axis of Turkey-Poland-Sweden would effectively neuter Russia from the Baltic to the Black Sea.

Lol.

The three champions of getting their ass kicked by Russia.

All three countries had their "greatness" broken by a collision with Russia.

The last war Sweden had with Russia, led it to permanently losing Finland. Earlier wars saw them get kicked out of the Southern Baltic and northwestern Russia.

Poland not necessary to mention.

Turks literally lost 8 wars to Russia - in a row. In the last war, France and Britain had to send hundred of thousands of men to Crimea to prevent the loss of Istanbul.

Maybe make something better than this club of battered wives?

Maybe they should do it again?

@Ironside


Again, read the article. Those are well-publicized issues. And since Germany has a large Turkish migrant population, those problems have received a lot of publicity here. Perhaps this is something that has not been of much interest in the UK?


The founding members of the EU are the Benelux, Italy, France and Germany.


And Greece has a veto against Turkey joining the EU. As does Cyprus.

Not that it matters. Turkey is not even pretending that it is trying to pass the membership criterias anymore.


Not if someone like Salvini replaces her.

@Ironside


Even though they are currently buying more fossil fuel from Russia than the other European countries combined?

energyandcleanair.org/publication/eu-imports-of-russian-fossil-fuels-in-third-year-of-invasion-surpass-financial-aid-sent-to-ukraine/

This shared millennia of spilt blood and ungodly injustice, infused with the murderous potency of revenge and spiritual reclamation is what makes this military axis so dangerous to russia.

Give me what you are smoking bro.

Sweden's Charles XII was the Napoleon of his age - in the bad sense of the word. He was going around burning everything in Poland, in Denmark, and in Russia. Your Augustus II and Denmark's Frederick helped us put the Swedes back in their place.

You forgot what was the Deluge? You gonna defend Swedes in front of me now?

Thank God Peter broke them at Poltava! They never recovered from that loss. Serves them right.

Turks did nothing but cause huge butthurt in Russia for about 500 years. Them, and their Crimean Tatar vassals, kidnapped LITERALLY millions of Russians, and sold them into Turkish slavery through the Genoese ports in Crimea. They thought their Black Sea would protect them, but we found our way into their lands both from the east and the west. Again - due desserts.

Poland is a little different. You attacked us first, however.

Indeed. That is what needs to be done.

And then we can look at their other borders.


Not relevant, however more new Germans from Türkiye is hardly a problem.


No, that is not true.

The founding members of the EU are those countries who founded it in 1992. Rather more than the six you mentioned.

Perhaps you're thinking about one of the forerunners to the EU, in which case you're also wrong, since Germany wasn't a founder of that. West Germany of course was...


One reason to end the librerum veto.

Perhaps you can suggest other ways of ceasing all trade with r*SSia and isolating them on the international stage.

@Tacitus

Why do you remove posters names from your quotes? You once pretended it happened automatically, which was a lie.

Then again, it's very clear that like 'Velund' etc, you're more a Tacitus than a Suetonius...

@jon357


It is relevant in so far as it may explain your lack of knowledge on the conditions Turkey. I suppose the recent Turkish elections did not receive much attention in the UK?


Just because the UK joined later doesn't mean you can just start the history of the EU later.

The EU is pretty clear on this and the date of its' foundation (hint: It is not 1992)

enlargement.ec.europa.eu/enlargement-policy/6-27-members_en#:~:text=The%20organisation%20founded%20in%201957,Italy%2C%20Luxembourg%20and%20the%20Netherlands.


It wasn' and it is not. Maybe there is a fix for it, but why bother to look for it if people can understand what I write just fine?


That is such silly take. West Germany and Germany are the same entity. The most obvious aign being that "West Germany" was just unofficial nickname, while the official name was and is Federal Republic of Germany.

It is irrelevant. Conditions can easily change as required.


Hard to know how that's relevant since I don't live there.


The U.K. was a founder member in 1992, as well you know,


President Honecker would probably disagree strongly with you.


It's confusing and you do it deliberately. You have been posting here for quite a few years and you certainly haven't solely posted using the same computer or phone for all that time.

You do this deliberately. Why?

How are you doing, guys/guesses?? Still playing sandbox kid games without Germany???? hahahaha

read this, kiddoos:
It is a turning point in the history of post-war Germany. On Tuesday (18 March), the Bundestag voted on a law that will allow unprecedented levels of debt to be incurred in the coming years for military purposes, civilian infrastructure, climate protection, and aid for Ukraine. In addition, 16 federal states are to be authorised to take on limited debt in the future.

Anybody who wishes in his sick mind to exclude Germany is lunatic or nationalist or both. hahaha


Iron, are you a lunatic, nationalist or both??? )::):)

Long live Serbian - Hungarian - Slovakian alliance !

Freedom to Slavs and Europeans of Central Europe !

Sovereignty to free countries !

You are a certified lunatic in real life, no doubt about it. Here you are known as a butler to Germans. Go and do your butler-y thing, stop spamming this thread, you bother decent people.

Let us pray for Poland so Poland return to the path of righteous, with Hungary and Serbia.

Exactly. And I am so proud of presenting the voice of reason to kiddoos playing sandbox games without Germany.

Hey, kiddoo, I am always right. Didn`t I say you would address me many times after lifting that ignore function???


Polish German alliance!!!


Of course not. I don`t have any papers cos I haven`t been to the shrink yet. Do you think I should go????? hahahaha

@jon357


I provided you with a source stating the opposite. Call Italy a member of the "Inner Six" if it makes you feel better. The point is that they have a special position in the EU thanks to their history.


Not sure what you are saying here. Erdogan has been transforming his country into an autocracy for more than a decade now and at this point, there is little reason to think that anyone can stop him. And even if someone does, it will take many, many years to reverse the damage done by him to the democratic system and culture of his country.


He wouldn't. As far as I know he never reconciled himself with his fall from power, let alone German reunification. . His wife spent decades living in Chile, mourning for the GDR. I think they viewed it as conquest in form of a counterrevolution or something.

Again, this is just a silly idea.


I am not. I've bought a new phone a few years ago, and since then I seem to recall having this issue. Or maybe it is a different reason, dont know, dont care. If people had shown trouble with comprehending my posts I would have looked for a fix, but that doesnt seem necessary.

I believe you. I have a similar issue with my computer which sports automatic blockade function on useless content.

Kiddoo playing sandbox games, you want to set conditions for countries???? What if other countries which you wish to invite say Fekk Off with your conditions to Poland??? What if Finland Sweden and others say they want to cooperate with Germany too??
Dziecko, urwałeś się z choinki z tym sojuszem bez Niemców i teraz Ci głupio się przyznać.

Torq, why don`t you educate Iron on the stupidity of his idea???

It doesn't, and they weren't a founder member of the EU.


You can say the same about East and West Germany uniting, and although it's not been a complete success, it was still done.



That is untrue. A quick look at your posts suggests you have been doing this since your first post, years ago.

Unless you use a phone with an entirely unique operating system that no other poster has ever used and isn't publicly on sale, I call BS.

This however is off topic. An alliance (though not in the shape Ironside suggests) will have to be built, however there's no reason that the EU should be involved (and the membership of Hungary and others every reason that it shouldn't) and no need to restrict it to Europe.

As mentioned already, we now have the Coalition of the Willing, with clear leadership and openness to new ideas and new members.

Don`t say it, Horatio,
cos there are things you know where
of which you might be seriously unaware.

Pardon. There is reason plus for the love. Germans are Serbs in origin.

Yep. Known knowns and known unknowns.

There's one fairly likely explanation though (ask Velund and Bobko...) and an alternative one which is just banal and stereotypical.

It's definitely deliberate though, and he takes time to do it given all his quotes.