Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe.

Precisely.

He missed Spain as well, even though they have a reasonably stable government and a competent army.

Tureky and Russia do not share interests and have no history of 'fruitful' cooperation.
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This conflict has nothing to do with Poland. The current set of politicians in Poland are supportive of Isreal because they are stupid and they are sucking up to the US. There is no way to conduct a serious policy.
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So far I'm talking about military, defensive pact. In such a scenario, Sweden fits very well. Of course, details can be ironed out later and even your suggestion is not bad.
Norway, well. Thank you for your input anyway.
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Take Iceland! Take Iceland!!!
After all, it doesn`t matter who you take to play sandbox games.

As you can see there are two types of countries. The first tier is those who would be interested in a military pact, whose aim is a mutual defense in case of Russian incursion.
The second is those who are in the region, border the first-tier countries and could be interested in joining into the alliance. Also, those whose potential and size are of not much use.
Any other country that does not qualify might not like to be a part of that alliance and at best could have a supportive role as they wouldn't be in danger of Russian invasion.

So why did you move the Baltics into the second tier???
Sandbox games......

That wouldn't sell well, however since the pre-eminent European political leader at the moment is Sir Keir Starmer, it would make sense for others to sign up to the Coalition of the Willing, as Poland is likely to anyway.


Has any other country except of course Ukraine had a chemical weapons attack from r*SSia?

He and what Army? Let's be honest here British Army won't stop Russia, nor will Britain use its nukes in defence of Poland. So their offer is of a limited us


Because their use is limited.
They could be a buffer that hampers Russian invasion for a few days at best.
They have little to offer in terms of money, resources, manpower, military, or anything else.
They are depend on the goodwill of other countries.

@jon357


Germany has been far more hawkish on Russia since 2015 than Turkey. Turkey has not implemented sanctions and is not - unlike all other NATO members - not on Russia's "unfriendly countries" list. And if you look at Turkey's geopolitical ambitions, Russia is far down the list of concerns for them, while Turkey's problems are far removed from Poland's. Do you see Polish soldiers fighting in Northern Syria? Or Turkish soldiers defending Vilnius?

@amiga500


I suggest to anyone believing that to read up on the foreign political history of Turkey of the last 50 or so years. Turkey has a complicated history with Russia, and there have been tensions and rivalries to be sure. But also close cooperation including the Turkish purchase of Russia S-400 systems. Russia and Turkey have often different goals in the ME, but ultimately they have usually worked out a modus vivendi. Ultimately Turkey has little reason to be concerned with Russia.They have defensible borders in the North, no territorial disputes with them (unlike with e.g. Greece, Cyprus, Syria and the Kurds) and a very healthy demographic outlook. By 2060 Turkey may have a larger population than Russia.


I suppose being a reliable partner and ally for several decadea counts ultimately very little.... .

Hahaha!

It is not Keir Starmer.

As much as I hate to say this, the pre-eminent leader is Macron (outside our Father and Savior Putin).

Macron is the longest serving - making him the "elder statesman" of the lot.

As president of France he is probably the most powerful president in the EU, because France has such a powerful presidency. Macron has the freedom to do many more things than Starmer.

Macron is actually in the EU unlike Starmer.

Macron has a bigger army than Starmer.

France has a larger and totally independent nuclear deterrent.

BB I admit, I hated Germans with a passion for most of my life, with a good reason: too many deaths in my immediate family, including my father, not directly at the hands of Germans, but indirectly, long painful illnesses as a result of German actions, my uncle, his son, and many others, but I completed my travels after going full circle, right now I am an impartial observer, so pretentious statements about domination are the words of some crank not wort a decent answer.
So BB, I come full circle, and in my mind, the confusion gripping Germany is temporary; all that is needed is a charismatic leader to awaken the German spirit, and I hope without racial superiority

Because they didn`t save you from the bloody hands of Polish insurgents in 1944 like they did to Novi who has loved them ever since and you loved him for that, too so why such regrets now???.

The one with the big red button with Trident written on,


It is likely that they will have taken the lead before any invasion.


Except for the significant number of individuals in the government and military there who appear to support r*SSia. And u til recently there was still gas co i g from r*SSia. Hopefully that's stopped now, never to restart.


Yes.

Although the EU is floundering, it's strange that Turkey isn't a member. They're one of the few countries in Europe (at least part of Turkey is in Europe, unlike Reunion, Curacao, the Azores, Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon etc which are bizarrely in the EU but nowhere near Europe) which like the U.K. has a growing population.

Except that those nukes aren`t British but leased from the US aka trumpists who are unpredictable like Russians. It is up to Americans to allow you to press the red button. Simple.

Europe can only depend on France and its nukes which she owns independently of anybody.

It isn't; that's a common myth.

They're on a service contract with the manufacturer, Lockheed Martin and go back in small batches now and again for maintenance. Neither the Americans nor any other foreign country have any sort of control whatsoever over their use and no idea where they are at any given time.

It is unlikely that the next generation will be from a manufacturer over there.

I read an article like Brits are shyting their pants over their nukes.

I wouldn't take that too seriously. Nobody really thinks about them, and although they'll need replacing soon, nobody wants to talk about the cost of replacing them.

One little known fact is that the previous generation (nothing to do with American companies) all still exist and are kept in good condition ready to be primed if needed. Their precise location is of course presumably secret, and of course the Trident nukes are hard to find. They're all on subs which could be anywhere in the world and are undetectable and when not on subs are of course looked after carefully. I doubt even the Yanks know where they are at any given time.

Na ja....seriously, we were only half independent during those years.....and split also most of the time!

We still have to prove ourselves.....

Recently vetoed the new military aid package to Ukraine. They don't care what happens on the other side of the continent and won't do much if Poland gets invaded, unlike Hungary.


Tacticus already proved himself by supporting Nordstream II and Russia as Krautistans reliable economic partner at the expense of it's eastern neighbours.

That`s good news..
Britain has not perished yet ....

Even very. It's as if those people paid to anticipate things for some reason anticipated things.


I remember him suggesting that his country would be buying hydrocarbons from r*SSia again once the war ends. It won't, and Nordstream has gone for good.

....we seem to lack these too.....

@jon357


Hardly. Turkey under Erdogan has made several steps backs on its' democratic evolution. There is no prospect of them fullfilling the membership criterias. We have already enough problems with one wannabe autocrat in Hungary, we dont need another one.


I'd say the chances for that are 50/50. If Trump and Putin agree to a ceasefire that holds, then it would be logical to make an opening of NSII part of the negotiations with Russia. It is one of the few leverages we still have left that could incentive Putin to make some concessions. And realistically speaking, based on how much European countries are still importing Russian oil and gas, it is also what those countries will demand.

Normal enough.

The pace of growth there is staggering. These are people we want on side and there is a huge liberal intellectual elite there. Turkey is us not them.


Closer to zero.


People don't always get what they want, and if course resuming trade with r*SSia is a betrayal of Europe and our values.

Turkey is muslim, they will never be us!

There is a reason their admission to the EU was so endlessly long drawn out and in the end came to naught! To many Europeans have a bellyache just thinking about them deep in our side....

So is Germany in 2040-2050 so your point is moot ;)

....that was mean :(

@jon357


We shall see. They have hit a bumpy road lately. Erdogan has a rather unique view on inflation and economy, which becomes problematic since there is no one stopping him from implementing them.

And while Turkey has potential, it is too unstable to become a member of the EU, let alone becoming the largest one.


Resuming implies that Europe ever stopped. It did'nt.

energyandcleanair.org/publication/eu-imports-of-russian-fossil-fuels-in-third-year-of-invasion-surpass-financial-aid-sent-to-ukraine/

There won't be a long-term boycott of Russian energy imports after the fighting stops.That is not my wish but simply a realistic assessment of the situation. The only countries that are fundamentally opposed to this are some of the Eastern European countries (but no all of them), the Baltic states, Scandinavia and the UK.

You don't even need to point at Germany. Countries like Italy have been pretty vocal about their desire to openly resume trade with Ukraine after the war ends.

He has around 59% support and there is a thriving political scene in Türkiye.

And of course there are EU members who've had coups d'etat, leaders assassinated, fascist and communist regimes and civil wars all in my lifetime and yours.


It needs to stop and cheap gas from r*SSia is a thing of the past.


"Only"??? That's plenty. And those countries are the adults in the room.

@jon357


I suggest you read up under which conditions the opposition had to contend in the last presidential election, or how Erdogan is treating the mayor of Istanbul, who is perhaps his biggest possible rival. Yeah, politics aren't dead and there are still free elections, but they are hardly what I would call fair.
And the situation is just getting worse, not better.

The EU took a calculated risk when it admitted Eastern European countries in the hope that this would encourage democratic progress in their societies. It has largely worked, but Hungary shows clearly the possible risks for the EU down the line. And Turkey is several times larger.


Relatively maybe. But far from the majority. We are talking about what? 140m out of 500m Europeans?


Well, those are the countries who have either alternative sources of energy and/or view Russia as an immediate threat to their own country. Try to look at it from the perspective of Italy. The country is still reeling from the Euro, Covid and refugee crisis, with its' public finances being stretched thin. The refusal of many Eastern European countries to show solidarity during the refugee crisis is still being remembered there. Russia is relatively far away, and the Italian peninsula is easy to defend in any case. No doubt many Italians feel solidarity with Ukraine, and Italy is still supporting Ukraine (although in relatively small quantities). But if the fighting stops in 2025, then I am pretty sure that calls to openly trade with Russia in 2-3 years will be hard to ignore for any government in Rome.

@Tacitus
I suggest you read up on how Türkiye is a thriving democracy and how other European countries sometimes have chaotic politics too.


Not 'relatively'. That is sufficient and when the most stable major country on the continent as well as those who border r*SSia are firm on this issue, others who have a less ethical approach to r*SSia should heed this. If they want to avoid sanctions, that is.

We're supposed to be moving away from fossil fuels anyway and there is no excuse to prop up our continent's biggest enemy by buying from them.

It will doubtless cause economic hardship for countries which foolishly chose to buy their gas from r*SSia however you win some and you lose some. Those countries lost.

Forget r*SSian gas.


You mean those countries sensible and decent enough not to source from a pariah state like r*SSia.


They've had as long as the rest of us, and perhaps if they hadn't behaved so badly with Libyans in the past, they'd have a nearby source of near unlimited energy rather than begging for what Libya chooses to sell them.

And yes, Italy is unstable, rotten with corruption at every level and has massive levels of organised crime, so why are they in the EU and not Türkiye?