Travel / Will corona kill my plans? Travel to Poland [18]

Just booked a group flight round trip for 23 people on LOT for end of July and first week of August. Don't buy into the paranoia about travel. Poland will be open, and it is pretty easy to see its one of the safest places to travel to. Once the election is over, probably on John Paul II birthday May 17, another miracle will happen and everything will be declared safe. (insert eyes rolling here)

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

@kondzior

You are joking about Kaczyński and the Golden Age of Poland right? The Potato is a joke in global circles of politics, and Poland is loosing respect in the global community for how this election is being handled.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

The do care what the USA thinks. And the USA is now starting to talk about how elections are being handled.

Dont get me wrong, I agree with PiS policy on immigration, and many of their other nationalistic positions. But their economic policy and fiscal management will break Poland eventually. The right hand is Republican and the left is Democratic. Really a split personality.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

But no one else is paying attention? usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-05-05/polands-senate-leader-accuses-ruling-pis-of-election-by-post-trickery

PiS games are really third world level. A strong competitor would never fear a fair election or seek these changes. The strong competitor would give a delay to the opposition because he has no fear in the election. Everyone knows a mail in election is a joke. People not in the country with a right to vote would be denied their right to vote. That in itself is enough that it should make anyone question this. Why would anyone seek to deny a citizens rights?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

IF it is not supported in the Sejm then the vote will have to be postponed. My understanding anyway. If the vote is postponed, Duda is done, and so is PiS. Look for more games to be played tomorrow.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

Based on what I read, everyone will be present to vote down this proposed law at 10 pm this evening. They had until 11 to vote. Then Duda could possibly resign triggering a new election in August. Personally I dont think Duda has the balls to resign and be the face in history as throwing Poland into a Political state of emergency during a pandemic. Something tells me, the vote will take place in June or July with regular procedures. This gives PiS enough time to pass their abortion laws and get rid of judges. Looks like JK may have over played his hand.

@mafketis

Numbers down again today. Would have been below 300 if not for another coal mine cluster. Every day that passes gives the pandemic less power, and in effect PiS less power. Soon everyone will see the economic devastation when they leave their homes. Spoke to a friend today at PKO leasing, they can not keep up with the number of cars being turned in early because people cant afford their payments.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

This will be the end of PiS when people see the financial ruin, and come out from quarantine.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

And the televised demonstrations in Warsaw today from business owners who didn't get any of the shield money are not going to help them either.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

I am going to put my money on the opposition. I think PiS has run its course. Too many people lost jobs and too many companies closed their doors under PiS. Whether it was pandemic or not, PiS will be held responsible by the people who lost. People in the countryside that depend on tourist money as they pass through or spend the weekend have been hurt a lot. Restaurants have been decimated, and those employees wont be finding new jobs with the new dining rules. Hotels the same. Extending the EU border controls the other day isn't going to help them either as more tourism damage is taking place.

This guy from Warsaw is educated, very intelligent, and the people seem to gravitate to him. Duda wont be able to match this guy. Particularly when they start talking about how to pay for all the money they gave away to large business and how none of it got to the people who really needed it, the small business owner and their employees.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

I watched Trzaskowski on TVN last night. Duda doesn't stand a chance in a debate with him. Openly promising to cancel the TVP financial support immediately and give the money to Cancer treatment? How many votes did he win with that statement? This guy is smart, tested in leading the largest city in Poland, and I think he can cross the generational gap that exists between PiS and opposition supporters. KK and Holownia are good options, but neither can really mount a fight against Trzaskowski.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

Duda is done. PiS is done. The whole move to authoritarian government is done. Once they tried to censor music by eliminating a song today about K they lost a lot of support from nationalist youth.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

@delphiandomine

Interesting polling numbers. I remember similar numbers Clinton Trump four years ago that ended up being completely wrong. Though the second round numbers are incredibly close this soon after the announcement. I have to believe the opposition will rally around Trzaskowski in round two, and if the economy keeps tanking PiS will see defections.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

This is exactly the kind of news Duda wanted to avoid bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-20/wall-of-provisions-casts-shadows-over-europe-s-best-economy

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

Interesting how some think DUda can still win in this economic climate. Considering the most effected group has been the older segment of society, most likely to vote PiS, who are now scared to come out of the house, or think that wearing masks is a waste of time, are less likely to support him. Clearly he is a yes man for JK and no one really likes spineless people, and while PiS was able to buy votes before, the strategy isn't working this time. I dont think he can beat Trzaskowski or Holownia in the second round and that the opposition will rally around one candidate at that time.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

@Torq
This goes against even the simplest logic of rational thought. Duda getting supporters from the opposition simply isn't going to happen. Everyone see's him for JK puppet. Even the international press are reporting how he is soft. Duda offers nothing new, nothing to make things better. He and JK are the past, they found this out when their colleagues forced them to abandon the May 10 vote. That was the first and biggest loss to date, the next will come when Duda cant win on June 28th.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

@delphiandomine
Would you agree that Palade's formula for winning is near impossible to happen?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

Apple prices up 94% in Poland since Coronavirus. These kinds of numbers are just the beginning. Duda can't survive job loss and massive inflation at the same time. I don't think we will see a repeat of 2019. I haven't trusted poll numbers since Trump/Clinton and I really don't think they can be trusted here. A lot of "if's" in those equations.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

@mafketis
The Problem is the opposition has already publicly said they will not take away what has already been given to Polish people. While I already heard on person bring up Tusk in his past positions, I dont see that carrying much weight. The younger generation is very mobilized right now. JK is really not even liked by his own party, and I think people will turn on him just to get rid of him.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

The later the elextion goes, the more economic damage becomes public, which is bad for Duda. Right, left, or center, when you start running out of money you start blaming the people in power who put you there.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

@delphiandomine
What is the sample size of these Polls? Where and how are they being taken? I am asking because I deal with a lot of people through work in many different age demographics around the country and I don't know a single person supporting PiS at this point. I know some who have in the past but they are not going to support them in this election.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

Small business gets 5K zloty for staying open for 3 months during pandemic. It takes 32 days to get it after you apply. That's it. All the other "shield" money went to big corporations. Complete misplacement of assets.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

@mafketis
Actually in USA small business got some good money to keep employees on working. Everyone I know got a loan that becomes a grant as long as you document your employees got paid.

@antheads2
Nothing for citizens. Talk about a 200 zloty monthly unemployment increase that didnt come that I am aware of. Only money to big business who kept employees on working, and most didnt keep them working.

A complete joke of a shield.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

@cms neuf
ZUS will continue to rise which will inhibit more growth and more hiring. Poland has got some serious fiscal problems coming and it is just the beginning. People have burnt through the little cash they had who may have been willing to take risk before the virus. Its not a good situation when banks are calling twice a day begging me to barrow money, sending emails with instant loans in 30 seconds for some pretty hefty amounts of cash. If banks are desperate to lend, then no one is barrowing, and no one is barrowing because they have no income, those that do have an income dont need to barrow. Its about to get real interesting over the next 30 days.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

Anyone else wonder why PiS wants the vote so desperately on June 28th now? Two reasons....First they know they are losing ground quickly and its not looking good. Second and most important is that they have no chance in winning once the second quarter economic numbers start getting out to the public. Once those numbers are out its all over for Duda.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

Marowiecki is scrambling to get EU funds because the projected economic downturn expected to be reported for the second quarter is 11% for the EU. If PiS doesnt get some money flowing and that report comes out before the election, PiS may as well just stack packing their things.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

I think people are over estimating and under estimating Poles. Over estimating PiS support, and under estimating the younger voters who want them out. Think about all the Poles that came home in the virus, they arent PiS supporters and they wont be leaving the country before the election. Think about all the Poles that could not go abroad and now cant go abroad because other countries will have an economic downturn. PiS has not shown stability. They look corrupt, and incompetent, maybe they are constantly corrupt and incompetent but that wont get them votes.

These Polls that are being taken, I have to question the demographics of respondents, and how many are being polled. I am reminded of GHW Bush/Clinton campaign. Bush was pooping the bed economically and Clinton had the world hypnotized with charm, intelligence and great public speaking ability. These three things and the young voters changed everything.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

WOW real brave to make statements like that. Blame for a worldwide virus? How about you take a remedial reading comprehension class. Spineless comment.

Everyone can blame the leadership for a damaged economy that did not have to be as damaged as it is. The virus is bad. Its a killer. It is not a global killer and threatening mankind like all the "experts" said could be.

Thinking PiS will win based on what could, or might happen, when clearly they are getting pounded in the polls and public opinion is wishful thinking. Its not just the economy either, its the judiciary, the treatment of small business owners, the perceived corruption at the core of the administration, the censorship, and all the other absolutely stupid economic policy they have come up with.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

According to these numbers:

Bosak: 6%
K-Kamysz: 5%
Biedroń: 4%

None of those three have a chance of winning. The match is quite simple. If all three though want Duda out, then they should simply get out now. Does Poland really want a repeat of Clinton/Saunders divided vote? That was simply the dumbest election season in USA history. a divided yet similar base is not wise. There are deals to be made. Are politicians in Poland simply not smart enough to make them? Or do they want to stay on TV for their own personal interests?

Duda was well above 50% in almost every poll just before Trzaskowski came out. Losing more than 10% in just a few weeks is getting pounded. Its why PiS is removing restrictions so quickly now. To try to get people feeling comfortable again. Its why the mines in Silesia were sent back to work while the virus rages through families there. Its why now they are pushing the June 28th election before the second quarter economic results come out in July. Those July numbers are going to show soul crushing unemployment and business closures.

Anyone walking the streets of their city and village is going to see empty storefronts now where there were small business just three months ago. Those operations wont come back in most cases, and it will take years for new business to replace them. This election will become less about LGBTQ or other alphabet soup issues and more about people and their ability to live as the days go on.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

@delphiandomine
By that math another 2% loss and its all but over for him. With a month to go before the election, given the rate of decent now, I wouldnt be betting on PiS. Typically when a ship is sinking, people look for life rafts and deals are made. I can easily see deals being made with Trzaskowski already. He publicly said he would work with PiS if he wins and they present good legislation. This guy isnt an extremist politician. He has Warsaw operating pretty well. Someone has yet to explain to me what PiS has done other than give away other peoples money, raise taxes, raise ZUS, spend EU money, and give special treatment financially to family, friends and supportive press.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2223]

@delphiandomine
I think its safe to assume that in the second round, Trzaskowski gets 70% of the votes from Holownia, KK, Bosak and others who cant beat Duda. I think thats probably an underestimation really. But for discussion sake, if thats the number, then the President of Warsaw is in a virtual dead heat with Duda already. While the oposition vote remains divided, there is no real choice other than not for Duda or for Duda. This brings us to a second round where voters gravitate to one side or the other.