News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@delphiandomine

Thank you, I will have attorney review.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@Cargo pants

Can you imagine all the beer going bad?! I hadn't thought about that. Huge loss there, but I am sure local breweries will have some kind of programs to help owners that make it through this.

You may be right on Poles not selling until they need it. Those that have paid in full property will be the last. Its those that are mortgaged that will try to get something back from what they have paid in. Young people know when to take money off the table.

I am looking at a Zabka franchise now. One thing that isn't suffering is Zabka and other stores selling those items everyone needs and wants, and that will never change.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

Hypothetically, I flip 100K USD to 450K PLN. At that point real estate is definitely coming down. That IMO is a smart time to buy. I just walked Rynek and some side streets. Some business's that were open a month ago we now empty with for rent signs on them. Most of them the smaller mom and pop shops, but some with good locations. I have to believe, that at the end of the month, when people cant pay rent on May 1, more deals will be there to be had.

While good for me as I look to diversify, this is clearly going to be devastating for young locals just starting out and older people who were just getting by. Its 4 weeks ago since warnings were given here, and in less than a week it will be 4 weeks that social distancing and other measures were instituted. While each day drags on for the most part, in business terms, time is flying, and time is money.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

I am looking at it from an business standpoint. The PLN I bought yesterday at 4.2 goes into an account to buy other business opportunity as prices com down. Making my USD outlay lower. IF I dont find a good business opportunity and I am wrong, when the exchange rate is more favorable to PLN, I buy back USD and make at least 10% simply because I made the bargain purchase. This is simple math.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@cms neuf

I am buying PLN. Maybe you misunderstood. 1 USD to 4,6 or 5.15 PLN. 1 USD is already 4.24 PLN today. Up from 3.8 PLN a month ago.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

Reading some forecasts for currencies over the last 24 hours. 90 day forecast for PLN is 4.6 to 5.15 on the USD. These are historical marks if reached. Currently nearing historical marks now. Looking at the last 30 years of exchange rates we are close to uncharted territory.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@BritboyByd

Agreed. I think outstanding debt is being underestimated by most people except the government. Of note is the thee month non payment window established as one of the very first relief items. This coming after banks chimed in on what was going on. I suspect the banks clued the government in on what a disaster the credit market could become if there was no relief.

I have a friend in this credit business. Getting people 10 year loans for a BMW for instance when there is no way someone making 5000 pln per month should be buying a BMW. Getting people mortgages on property they will be able to pay for only if they are eating raman noodles for the next 20 years.

While this three month window will help, when jobs do not come back, what then? When the 2 million migrant Ukraine workers do not all come back to fill jobs, and rent apartments that were bought on mortgage, what then? When these developers are selling "investment", and "managed rental" properties, many of these owners are young and inexperienced business people trying to make a move in life. Great effort with really good execution until something like this happens. It will certainly be interesting to watch.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@delphiandomine

Wealth is relative. I had some wealthy friends in USA who are no longer wealthy after the stock markets tanked. Spoke to some friends in Real Estate there. Mortgages and refinance applications are in the toilet, and values coming down already.

How "credit" effect Poland will be interesting. I suspect, based on the number of "credit" company's everywhere working on bank commissions for obtaining loans for clients that there will be a lot more issues here than people expect. I see Poland very similarly as how I saw USA before 2008. Everything was great until disaster struck because no one was prepared for anything other than the success they had been experiencing.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@BritboyByd

LOL at stimulus package. I learned a long time ago, that real people buy real things. Owning a small business and staying in touch with people on the front lines of life will tell you more about the economy and markets than any economist or fund manager. The US stimulus package is a joke, and Poland's package isn't going to come close to whats needed for the people on the front lines.

While governments around the world are racing to save large corporations with bailouts, and access to funding, the real money behind every free market economy is with small business owners. Polish people should know this as well.

That said, a crash in value on PLN is unlikely. Though I am now buying as much as I can for when things level off. Making 7 to 10 percent just buying a currency is never a bad thing.

Have to agree with Cargo pants, there is no free lunch or easy deals in Poland. There are some nice deals out there but you have to look, and usually it helps to know someone. Again, comes from being on the ground and in touch with people on the front lines.

I thought I could come to Poland an make a killing two years ago. Took me about six months to figure out that I had to make a lot of friends before I could start making a killing. Same as everywhere else, your network will be invaluable. If you dont have one, you will pay for it here.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

That's the problem I think. Real estate here is largely price dirven by the real estate agents telling these owners the "value". So owners in certain markets have unrealistic values placed on certain properties. The real estate market here IMO opinion is very inexperienced when it comes to judging market values and what is actually a salable item and what isn't. When an apartment is listed for about 14000/M2 and it has not been remodeled in 30 years, but the agent determines the value on "comps" in the new buildings around this apartment, you have unrealistic values in many places. This is simply a disservice to the current owner. Its done this way because the buyer is paying the agent, so the agent tries to soak the buyer. When it should be the seller paying. Backward.

For instance; I laughed at a guy who wanted to try to sell me the "ventilation" he had installed for his restaurant to open. Even though it couldn't be removed he thought the completion cost was actually the value of the required equipment for him to operate previously. No depreciation, nothing. Completely ignorant that the hood was over 5 years old, and a replacement could be bought new for less than 2000 pln. The restaurant is currently closed, making no money, so its not even an ongoing concern. I actually laughed in the realtors face not his, but he saw me laugh. Now the same guy is trying to trade his restaurant, and over priced lease for a used car!

There will be a lot of empty store fronts and restaurants in Krakow this summer that's for sure.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@Cargo pants

Not interested in Warsaw market, but thank you for the offer. Going to stick in the south, Krakow or Katowice. I have 4 places I am keeping an eye on now. All turn key. The longer they sit the better IMO, and 3 have already dropped in price in last three weeks, two owned by Italians in Italy. Though the recovery will be slow, people always eat and drink, and eventually the tourists return.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@Cargo pants

If property sits vacant that long, then they are not very good business people. I like making money, not sitting on investments that aren't turning profits. When asked by a real estate agent why I was so passionate about buying a restaurant, I responded I am not passionate about restaurants, I am passionate about opportunity and making money. People with cash on hand, who are ready, will be able to take advantage of this market.

Sure, banks will reposes as soon as they can. But young people will want to get some of their investment back before they lose it all. Young people think differently than the people my age and up. They are a little quicker to cash out. The NASDAQ and DOW have proven that to be true. I suspect the same will prove true for those who look hard enough for deals here.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@delphiandomine

Actually I looked at the building and plenty have not been sold.

When looking at the current inventory, some of which have been listed for 6 or more months, those prices have been coming down. I have been tracking this market for two years, and the growth was and remains completely unsustainable. Coupled with a mass exodus of transient workers over this crisis and you will have owners with investment property scrambling in a few months.

Remember, most investors don't own dozens of properties, they own one or a few to create a nice monthly income. Many are bought on mortgage by younger people speculating in the market. Those people are now unemployed.

All I know is realtors are calling and emailing. They know inventory is very high, and buyers are few. Eventually those with cash will break those without it, it happens all the time. This will be no different the longer this crisis goes on.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@Cargo pants

You may be right. Maybe they wont sell at a loss. I will look at it the other way though. While this virus rages on in other countries and Europe recovers, tourism will not come back for months. Unemployment will continue to rise for at least three months after this event, on this continent and North America. Migrant Ukraine workers will not come back right away to fill the rental market. They will have spent their money on living in Ukraine, so service industries will also have a hard time recovering.

There is no quick stimulus that rescues a global economy. When a global event happens, this will take a year or years to recover from. When that happens, and people need money to eat and pay their own bills, they get rid of investments. Gold and valuables will come first. Real estate will come too. When there are only a few buyers, and too many sellers, people will bring prices down.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

I will use Krakow as an example because I have been tracking the over saturated market for two years. Prices were stagnant until this event for the last 18 months. Zero growth in retail pricing. That alone, will eventually trigger an downward trend. Prime properties on rynek or something will always remain high. There is a new building in my neighborhood that is all but empty. Other buildings a few blocks away with serious vacancies for rental market, and prices already coming down.

Krakow has far too many buildings under construction that are scheduled to finish this year. Couple that with about 2 million Ukraine leaving Poland rental market to head home in the last three weeks, and you have a a crater forming that can not be filled.

Most of these rental properties are mortgaged by their owners, and renters are paying the mortgage. That is until there are not enough renters, and people cant afford the rent. In Krakow it will be worse than 2008. I will bet on a 15 to 20 percent market correction on non commercial real estate in the next 12 months. Commercial will go down too, but not as much. That said, if investors arent spending money, commercial other than retail space is going to take a beating.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

Cash is always king. Good times or bad. Those who prepare for these kinds of opportunities come out far ahead.

Fixed costs of rent will plummet in Poland. Prices already going down. Several places I looked at months ago, the real estate people are emailing begging for an offer. The over saturated housing market is about to get deeply cut. Developers who are not prepared are going to get killed. Here in Krakow it will be a buyers market come May 1.

Being a real estate agent, or holding a bunch of vacant property at this time is about the worst position you can be in. The longer this goes on, the more people need to sell to survive personally.

Some people call me a negative person because I always look for a bottom or worst case scenario. This is worst case scenario like never seen since the Depression, and will make 2008 look like a carnival.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@johnny reb

Bringing USD over here in bunches since March 3. Love getting over 4 pln for 1 usd

Where there is problems, there are also opportunities. I almost bought a restaurant in January, but owner would take my offer that was 20K less than asking price. Funny now when its still on the market for less than what I offered three months ago. Cant wait till May to go back to him.

Language / Learning Polish but not focusing on the grammar, good idea? [37]

I spent 8 months learning at a school. Polish grammar made me crazy, and all I really learned were the names of things in every day life. Until I got a native speaker teacher I struggled to express myself. I still struggle, but not nearly as much as I did. Native speaker is the way to go. But if you need to take a language test, you will need to know the grammar as well.

Work / A young Dutch man moving to Krakow-tips for work, living etc..... [38]

@pawian
Not trying to convince anyone. When a thread thats been dead nearly 4 years is made active, thats someone trying to convince someone of something.

Work / A young Dutch man moving to Krakow-tips for work, living etc..... [38]

@pawian
I live here. People aren't wearing masks very often. Visibility has only been bad a few times this winter. You cant smell the burning like in years past. Neighbors are turning each other in when they burn. Katowice, is much worse than Krakow these days. While it hasn't snowed, its been cold enough, that if people were going to burn they would be burning.

Work / A young Dutch man moving to Krakow-tips for work, living etc..... [38]

@pawian
The air in Krakow has been very goo almost all winter. Most of the burning has stopped. Go to Nowy Targ though....yikes

News / Why is Poland so hostile against Germany? Do they realize how their reparations rubbish damages relations? [512]

@Rich Mazur "The problem is that temporary workers do not make the country stronger. Just the opposite. They depress wages and take the money they earned with them which is imports and, as such, make the country weaker, as opposed to exports."

The most economically intelligent thing easily said regarding temporary workers on this site. While i generally disagree with a majority of what is said by Rich, this is an absolute truth. Clearly demonstrated by Poles themselves when working abroad, living frugally, and sending money home. This is neither a "left" or "right" statement, but an economic fact.

On topic though, anyone who doesn't understand why Poles, those i have met anyway, a great majority of them, have not, and will not forget Germany and its aggression. They still fear Germany may try something again, and do not trust Germans. This I don't think will ever change.

This past summer, while having a coffee on Rynek in Krakow, a table full of older German women, was openly stared at with distaste simply by speaking their language loudly and Poles could hear. The attitude is simple, spend your tourist dollars, go home, and please don't come back unless you are spending more money. Germans, I would opine are just as much not welcome as Africans.

Genealogy / Second gen Polish-American with little exposure [45]

@Miloslaw
When I first moved here, it was a struggle. That said, it was simply my not knowing enough. I should have been better prepared and known more than a few words to order drinks and dinner with. I go to a language lessons regularly every week, with a native speaker, and I did 8 months in school twice a week to learn grammar and pronunciation. I still struggle, just not as much.

@Paulwiz
Try learning some Polish. If you don't, people will really question the sincerity in which you are making this effort. My experience is that native Poles in general are suspicious of any foreigner even when claiming good intentions. This is from locals, and government officials alike. You really need to be able to demonstrate sincerity in your reasons for being in Poland if you want to learn things. Learning some basic language skills will demonstrate that. People I met a year ago, now see me differently having gotten to know me and seen the effort I have made. Doors opened and assistance came based on that.

Genealogy / Second gen Polish-American with little exposure [45]

@Miloslaw
Actually the people I meet that are under 40 are more than fluent enough to discuss very important subjects, history, architecture and things of this nature in great descriptive detail. English in Poland is very common now, except of course with those over 50 and in some very small villages. I go to a lot of cities in Poland for work, and do not have a problem. Smaller places like Sanok, or Nowy Targ, Nowy Sacz, and places like this, you will need a least a few phrases and base understanding to get by.

Genealogy / Families from Poland - finding out their names prior to immigration? [6]

geneteka is where I found the last critical document I needed. Great site!

Law / Polish Citizenship by Descent Question - Polish Citizenship Acts [36]

I am actually going through this process now. Great Grandparents came to USA in 1917. With all documentation, birth certificates, and official translations of USA documents, Citizenship can be obtained. It takes a little time, and all documents must be in order, but its not too difficult if you have a good attorney. Its not like a foreigner applying for a new citizenship, it is a recognition of citizenship application, and clerks treat them a little differently. Particularly if you can demonstrate existing ties to Poland, such as visiting here, owning property, owning a business, etc.

Work / Self-employed American living in Poland? Is it possible? [46]

In the classic sense in which the saying "American Dream" was developed and popularized in 1931, yes. While I personally lived the dream and was very lucky in business, it is not that way for most people. Poland, in my professional opinion, offers much greater opportunity for success because it is still a developing market. Where as USA is largely developed and the entrepreneurial spirit may be alive but cost prohibitive for most. By Polish standards, making 100K USD per year makes you a very wealthy person, and US standards you are middle class. If you know how to make money, Poland offers significant opportunity as well as tax advantages.

Work / Self-employed American living in Poland? Is it possible? [46]

I have a 66sq meter flat 10 minutes walk from Rynek in Krakow in a great quiet neighborhood, secure building, with utilities, internet, ect total expense is 3000 pln monthly. The housing market is coming back to earth in Krakow and in Poland in general. Still lots of building going on but a lot of inventory available and lots of deals to be made.

Currency fluctuation isn't a big deal. But simply transferring funds monthly is not the way to go. If you want residency, you have to have a reason, and on top of the reason you need to show income, health insurance ect. If you don't have Polish roots, whats the reason? If it is because you want to develop your business and pay taxes in Poland, then great, but you still need to file the right applications with the right documents.

I commuted every two weeks to Poland from USA for a year, have a very successful company in USA, Polish ancestry, and still it took 6 months to get residency while working with the best attorneys you can hire.

Polish authorities still find it hard to believe anyone wants to leave the USA because of the "American dream" all Poles were told about. This is a real roadblock for some people in positions of authority to get over.

You need a real plan. Start by getting an attorney, and then visit the country for two weeks in a rented flat to see how life is. Don't be a tourist, work every day, shop, cook, and try to live a normal life for two weeks. That will give you a real idea if you can pull it off personally and not just financially. With the holidays ending, now is the perfect time.

USA, Canada / The proper behavior an American should show when visiting Poland [115]

Pretend you are mute? Don't act like your from USA? A short list...Don't talk politics unless you want to embarrass yourself. Don't talk about American Football. Don't act as though you expect everyone to speak English. Learn some simple Polish words and phrases and use them, locals will appreciate the effort.

Work / Self-employed American living in Poland? Is it possible? [46]

Everything depends upon going to Poland with some money to begin with. Setting up a company, and producing a profit in year one above 60K PLN will assure residency for at least 3 years. 1500 PLN per month for ZUS, 800 PLN or so for accounting, plus what ever you pay yourself. You can easily live a nice comfortable life as a single person on 24K USD annually. If you are earning more, or course its better. There are plenty of good real estate opportunities outside of the major cities. I have a friend in Katowice who just paid 150K PLN for a very nice flat about 10 minutes outside of the city. Like anything, planning and being prepared is key.