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Posts by Tacitus  

Joined: 6 Jul 2017 / Male ♂
Warnings: 2 - QQ
Last Post: 20 hrs ago
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Tacitus   
6 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

I wonder if it is truly wise of Poland to place so much faith into Trump. I mean regardless of what you think of him personally, there can be no doubt that the USA will focus less and less on Europe and instead continue its' pivot to the Pacific. North Korea and China are the countries Trump seems to be most concerned with, and China's ascension will no doubt only make American concern more urgent over the years. The USA might stick to its' commitment to defend a fellow Nato ally, but in the many other European issues that concern Poland, Warsaw will need powerful European allies. As of right now, the UK has sidelined itself through Brexit and will remain marginalized in European affairs (as evidenced e.g. by how they were not part of the negotiations about the Ukraine). France and Germany will remain the key players in the EU and Europe, and even Central European countries like the Czech Republic have agreed to closer cooperation, e.g. by integrating part of its' military into German command structure. Alligning itself closely with an (increasingly) desinterested USA while having an openly hostile relationship with Russia and a worsening relationship with the Western European countries would end up badly for Warsaw in the long run, especially if it wants to influence how the EU will develop in the next decade.
Tacitus   
6 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

@Crow

1. What has Croatia to do with Trumps' visit to Poland?
2. The Polish government has done everything to appease Trump, including bringing people from all over the country to greet him. That was hardly a slap into Trumps face.

3. Obviously the Three Seas Initiative doesn't offer much to Poland, realistically speaking. All the countries involved are economically dependent on either Russia or Germany (or both). When pushed, they might have to choose between either Moscow or Berlin, but none of them will antagonize both and side with Warsaw.
Tacitus   
6 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

Exactly. Romania might, but that's about it. The rest already chose their beds.

Exactly. Romania might, but that's about it. The rest already chose their beds.

Even Romania recently announced that it would participate in the project of closer military cooperation with Germany. Its' economic dependence on Western European investment is also far too great for that. Poland simply has not the ressources to make it even remotely interesting for any of those countries to have a bad relationship with either Western Europe or Russia.

A lot, actually. It was made clear by the Americans that they wouldn't visit Warsaw unless President Grabar-Kitarovic was there to take a central role.

Good to know, that has hardly been reported here. You'll have to hand it to Croatia, they know how to conduct effective diplomacy. They have such a good standing in the EU that this will hardly be held against them, even by those who dislike Trump.
Tacitus   
6 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

Germany proved to be a every fickle partner and their interests as they see it doesn't align with the national interest of Poland.

If anything, it was Warsaw that needlessly antagonized Berlin since PiS got elected while Merkel showed great patience with them. That being said, I don't see why Germany and Poland should not be able work together closely. Both want to keep Russia out of the European Union, both have taken an interest in protecting the Baltic states, and both want the current pro-European government in Kiev succeeds. Both countries are important trading partners for each other and there is potential for closer economic cooperation.

Ultimately Poland need to see to her own defence but that takes time my friend.

I think this is more than just purely military matters. Poland's army is strong enough to make any conventional invasion not worth the cost. But if it wants to shape Europeans destiny, it must do so in accordance with other countries and major allies.
Tacitus   
7 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

@dudar

y. I just don't understand why she is still so popular in Germany and why the rest of European countries follow her lead...
@ dudar

Germany is currently experiencing a golden era. Unemployment is at a record low, the economy is booming and so on. What's more Merkel is perceived as a highly skilled diplomat who kept the EU together, negotiated with Putin over the Ukraine and in general is seen as a welcome contrast to politicians like Trump. It is no coincidence that Merkel's approval ratings improved since Trump got elected.
Tacitus   
7 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

and yet her legacy might fall squarely on a quick and miscalculated move during the Migrant Crisis.

Unlikely. In the long run, the refugee crisis is simply not as much of an issue as the danger of a break-up of the Euro and EU, nor the problems Putin's Russia are creating. If she manages to weather the storm and make both the common currency and the EU more resilient to such crisis, she'll be assessed very highly by both history and Germans.

German press is clearly censored and everyday Germans frightened to publicly speak out or even question the government because of laws being passed by said government.

Nonsense. You are free to criticize the government as much as you like.
Tacitus   
7 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

Then why did walesa receive such applause if you claim that it was only pis supporters? I didn't hear a single boo or any other disrespect when his name was announced.

A fellow student of mine is a PiS supporter, yet he told me that he admires Walesa and doesn't share the animosity of his party leadership against the man. Just because you follow a party doesn't mean you have to agree with everything the party says.
Tacitus   
7 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

Whether you interprete the 23% as agreeing with Trump's ideology (or views) or not is completely up to you.

There are other factors to consider as well. Many Poles might simply be happy about Trump's visit because of what he presents (American commitment to Poland) instead of what he is. Even those who don't like Trump personally might be simply happy about this gesture.

I mean realistically speaking, there are not many reasons why Poland should be happy with Trump. Warsaw is most concerned with Russia, and there is the greatest uncertainty surrounding Trump. Trump's antiliberal ideology might make him sympathic to some PiS Voters, but Poland is unlikely to benefit from this, since this is mostly a domestic issue. The fact that Trump has endorsed Brexit is problematic for Poland, since they want to secure the rights of Poles working in the UK for which they'll need a strong hand as possible.
Tacitus   
7 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

Germany just passed a law censoring and even threatening to arrest individuals for free speech on social media

No not free speech. Hate speech. Due to historical reasons, Germany draws a line when it comes to inciting violence and hatred. You can criticize the government because of the refugee crisis, bit calling for the murder of refugees or politicians will get you in trouble and rightly so. Especially because many local politicians were the victims of personal threats and insults, who have not personal bodyguards to protect them.
Tacitus   
7 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

Sadly, the police in Germany is only allowed to act with great restrain. Which is why you have regularly people who like violence and who apparantly think that they can have some "fun" with the police.

Liz brate don`t pretend that you don`t know that entire Germany was formed on the ground stolen from Slavs in process known as Drang Nach Osten.

If you want to interprete history like the early 20th century historians you might have a point (and even then, 3/4 of today's Germany was never settled by any tribes that could be called "slavic"). I know some people in the Balkans have still some catching up to do until they are at a civiliatorical with the rest of Europe, and evidently you belong to them. But from my my previous travels to Serbia, I am aware that you only present shrinking minority among your people.
Tacitus   
7 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

Really? What was so antagonizing for Berlin? Info that Poland would rather pursue her national interest rather than be a butler for Berlin like Tusk.

Poland enjoyed far greater influence in Europe while working togeter with Berlin than now. Poland could have worked together with France and Germany to shape the European future after Brexit, while now they'll either have to choose whether or not they want to be part of a deeper integrated Europe, or if they want to be sidelined. Poland is free to pursue its' national interest, but it is not particulary smart doing so by antagonizing all its' important European partners.
Tacitus   
7 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

Of course, history would hardly be interesting if it wasn't open to interpretation. That being said, historians nowadays are more aware about the many problems that can arise if you apply modern views on historical sources, and of course how ancient sources are often problematic as well.

I mean we have many Roman historians who have written about the Germanic tribes (Tacitus was notably among them), and applied names to them like Sueben et al. But they most likely never visited these lands, nor is their any evidence that those tribes called temselves like the Romans did, or considered themselves part of "Germanic" tribes.
Tacitus   
7 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

Hate to break it to you but the smaller poorer eu states especially those in central and eastern Europe feel as if Germany, France, Belgium etc decide everything important and the smaller nations must follow.

Yet, when in doubt, they'll always side with Germany instead of Poland. How many countries have sided with Warsaw against Tusk again? The secret behind Merkel's succees is that she knows how to build European alliances, and how to get the smaller countries on board. For example, many smaller countries were very concerned that Greece would be treated to leniently, and Merkel helped to convince them otherwise.

Regarding refugees, this is a matter of European solidarity. Eastern Europe and particulary Poland has received a lot of European support in form of structural funds over the years. It also has lobbied for European support since Russia became more active in Eastern Europe and Germany in particular has sacrificed a lot of its formerly good economic relation with Russia to stop Putin via sanctions (the Western country that is even more afflicted, Italy, is currently suffering the most along with Greece under the refugee crisis). Is it really too much to ask that Poland for once makes a small concession on the refugee issue?

Recently a small town in Switzerland of around 2k 3k people stated that they'd much rather pay 250k euro than let just 10 migrants into their town.

At this point, I wouldn't be against such a solution, yet I am pretty sure that Poland hasn't offered any financial assistance to either Italy, Greece or Germany for dealing with the refugees. On the long run, I expect however this to be the solution. There are already talks about how the EU budget will be organized after Brexit, and it looks like the structural funds will be slashed, probably by more than 50%. Additionally some money might go to the countries who are taking in most of the refugees.
Tacitus   
7 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

As if a few thousand more would make any noticeable difference. But again, this is simply a matter of solidarity. Poland has decided that it doesn't want those refugees and I doubt that they'll be forced to take them down the line. I just don't believe it to be smart to sacrifice potentially bns of Euro each year just for that which will most likely become a consequence of Warsaw's refusal.
Tacitus   
7 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

Kuwait Saudi Arabia uae Qatar? Theres tons to choose from. But the Saudis are too smart - they cite terrorist and security concerns for not taking in migrants.

Saudi-Arabia is hardly an example for human rights, certainly none Poland would want to be compared to.

Also where was the solidarity in helping Ukraine?

There is hardly a better example for European solidarity than the Ukraine and the aftermath of the Russian annexion of Crimea. The EU condemned the violation of the Ukraine by Russia, imposed costly sanctions and there are now European troops under Nato leadership stationed in Poland and the Baltic states.
Tacitus   
7 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

what else introduce an embargo on Polish goods and services? Well that is gona hurt them more than Poland - much more.

The simple truth is, that Poland is increasingly isolated in Europe. It doesn't have 12 allies it can rely on when push comes to shove. It doesn't have 4. Hell, it might not even have one, not even Hungary backed them against Tusk. There is no need for any strong German reaction towards Poland. If Warsaw maintains its' current course, it will be increasingly sidelined on European affairs, which I'd find regrettable.
Tacitus   
7 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

Anyhow, a number of European nations are concerned once again that Germany has become too economically powerful and will steamroller her way across the continent,

That doesn't prevent them from asking them for German investment, or even closer military cooperation though. I am sure with time they'll come to accept that Germany wants mutual benefical relation with them. The Czech Republic for example has greatly benefited from the close economic cooperation with Germany, as do others.

I don't think any European government has spoken out against German leadership, except Poland and Hungary (and even Orban made sure not to upset too many Germans), in fact most have voiced their displeasure about German reluctance to lead in the past. Personally I think it is good that we have a strong French president with Macron again, so that the sole responsibility does not lie with Merkel any longer.
Tacitus   
7 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

No hard feelings here, it looks like the Serbians learned their lessons a lot quicker than the Germans.

On a side note, I am very glad that Merkel invested a lot of effort into presenting the Balkans with a European option. Germans know from their history how long it can take for a people to come to terms with its' past, but I sincerely hope that Serbia will one day within my lifetime join the EU, and thus bring the project of pacifying the Balkans to a conclusive end.
Tacitus   
7 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

Tacitus, Germany remains the rich, unpleasant uncle of whom everyone's sort of afraid, yet whom everyone needs when they don't have enough money:-)

A simplistic response to your comment, yet apt just the same, wouldn't you agree?

I can live with that. Isn't it better to be feared than to be loved, if you can't have both? ;) But who knows how things'll look in another 50 years.@Crow

Don`t worry. Pacification 100%. When we finish here what Turks and Germans started, there would be no Islamists and no Nazis here.

It is a good thing Serbia was stopped the last time they wanted to follow in German or Turkish footsteps. ;) I am sure Belgrad has learned by now like Germany did that attempting to increase your territory by war will inevitable lead to a decrease in territory.
Tacitus   
8 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

Let us hope that Ms. Merkel or her successor will not make future tactical blunders:-)

Germany so far had only sensible leaders after WWII. Hopefully this will continue to do. At the very least, German aversion to military power will make sure that even stupid German leaders won't be a danger to its' neighbours.
Tacitus   
8 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

So sad and pathetic that all these Syrian men just left their country without a fight.

Well, not like there are real alternatives left there. They can choose between the butcher Assad, Al-Quaida and the IS. I would not want to risk my life for any of those guys. And shouldn't you also by the same logic have contempt for the Ukrainians who left their country, instead of fighting for it. Not to mention that there are large areas in the country that are safe?

It doesn't work that way. We are sovereign and we decide who is let in and who isnt.

Poland has agreed like the other EU member states to share some of its sovereignity and accept decisions that are based upon majority votes.

All I am saying is that the current Polish government is using an issue that would realistically speaking have only a slight impact on Poland - we are talking about a few thousand refugees here - in order to gain domestic approval by alienating its' allies in Europe. You can be sure that none of the affected countries will forget this any time soon. Even disregarding the potential financial damage to Poland caused by a potential reduction of the structural funds. Is Poland really in a position where it can afford this? I have no doubt that if the Ukraine crisis had happened today, Merkel would have never been able to get countries like Italy to support sanctions (something that Warsaw very much wants) against Russia. Warsaw might also find it difficult to get its' voice heard during the negotiations with the UK, where Poland wants to limit the fallout of Brexit, while other countries want to have a tough strategy towards London. It might also harm Polish interests in other ways. I recently attented a lecture about European-Russian relations, and one former German ambassador to Russia attented. He spoke about the North Stream project, and supposedly the German government was considering to remove its' support for the project for some time, because it believed that most European governments would voice its' opposition out of consideration. But apparantly several Southern European countries have reconsidered its' opposition, which is why it is not clear that the EU will veto this, which seemed very clear two years ago. Even Italy, who was noticeable angry with Berlin because it had to cancel a promising project with Moscow due to the sanctions has softened its' criticism. So if it was Poland's aim to prevent North Stream, it has not helped its' cause at all. I am saying this as someone who disapproves of the project mind you.

In short, I don't think that Warsaw has followed a productive strategy in its' foreign policy and it might end up in trouble over time.
Tacitus   
8 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

How about Germany rioting and injuring over 400 of their own police officers today ?

We have too many people here, mostly left-wing anarchists who take advantage of the restrain of the German police. But honestly, violence around G20 summits is nothing new and happens in very country where the police is not allowed to shoot people.
Tacitus   
8 Jul 2017
News / Officials in Poland are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump [720]

The ukranians did resist the russians

Strictly speaking, a lot more Syrians have died so far that Ukrainians. And unlike the Ukraine, there are not many places that are relatively safe.

what some unelected eu commisar thinks of Poland

Let's just hope that Poland won't have to rely on the support of the countries that are affected by the refugee crisis in the foreseeable future. Things might get ugly though.

telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/12/italy-calls-for-eu-funding-to-be-cut-to-eastern-european-countri

Imagine for example, that no agreement is reached with London about EU foreigner because some countries like Italy want a hard Brexit. 100.000s of Poles would be directly affected, partly of the Polish refusal to take in a few thousand refugees. Is this a proportional equation?
Tacitus   
8 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

Because Sarazin has been mentioned frequently here, it is worth pointing out that he comitted several factual errors in his books. There are numerous articles that highlight his mistakes and simplifications, e.g. a very long one here: (The following is just a short quotation giving some examples)

"Sarrazin, for example, writes that Germany's population will be 20 million in 2100. Yet demographers estimate that there will be 46 million Germans in 2100.
[...]

neration men with Turkish backgrounds marry German women, a percentage that increases in future generations.

The entire article can be found here:
spiegel.de/international/germany/the-man-who-divided-germany-why-sarrazin-s-integration-demagoguery-has-many-followers-a-715876-3.html]http:

The next page of the article debunks his statements about genetics, Jewiish and immigrant genes and so on. It makes for an interesting read, but since it would make my post to long I'll refrain from citing them.

[spiegel.de/international/germany/the-man-who-divided-germany-why-sarrazin-s-integration-demagoguery-has-many-followers-a-715876-4.html

It is true that Sarazzin did a lot to highlight several problems with migration to Germany and he deserves credit for opening a debate about this. But like many people with a good cause, he radicalized himself with time and included topics in his books about which he lacked the proper knowledge to analyze them, and furthermore did not properly analyze the data and statistics he used. His credibility suffered greatly from this, which is why almost no one takes notice anymore when he voices his opinion anymore.

Please read rule#11 on copy-paste
Tacitus   
8 Jul 2017
News / Germany After the EU and the Russian Scenario - future of the European Union and Poland [310]

@mafketis

I'm not interested in ending all immigration to Europe but I am in favor of better policy than GErmany has at present (which is terrible in many ways).

Germany has in many ways changed its' approach to immigration integration, especially towards refugees. There is now great effort taken to offer refugees education, and German lessons are now mandatory for the new arrivals. So far it seems that this new approach could work out.

A better indication of integration is percentage of women that marry German men. Any figures there?

I haven't found any statistic on a quick search, and I suspect that it will be difficult to find any reliable data, since there are a lot of factors to consider (e.g. second-generation German-Turks who only have a german passport and so on). From my personal experience though, the son of my former landlord married a Turkish women a few years ago. Her other sisters are also married to Germans.

How does Turksih academic performance stack up against native GErman performance?

We have in Germany the problem that in more than almost any other OSCE country, the performance of children in school depends on their parentage. There is still a low number of worker-class children who enter university, even among German-born parents. The same counts for Turkish-born children. One major step to improve this is the establishment of daycares that take care of children the whole day long (whereas previously kindergarten were only open for half a day) so that children can learn and practice their German properly.