News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [937]


Good one.

I would rather worry that nobody wants sterling or gilts anymore.

Best candidates for new (additional) reserve currencies are the Yuan and the Rupee.

To compete with them, Poland needs to add a billion people, and probably... acquire some nukes.

Why nukes? Because a reserve currency also reflects power projection - foreign states must believe that the issuer can defend the system underpinning it.

This is why sterling ruled the world during the Pax Britannica, and the dollar rules now in the Pax Americana.

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [421]


Hahahaha! *cough cough* Ahahahahahahahahaha! *catches breath* Muwahahahahahahahahaha!

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [937]


It doesn't fix the problem.

One would think that Poles would be experts at understanding this kind of thing, after their wonderful adventures with Swiss Franc denominated mortgages (a big "haha" moment for investment professionals around the world).

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [421]


Who's us? Are you gonna live forever?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [937]


America quite literally cannot go bankrupt.

You can. Poland can. France can. Germany can.

America can't. Neither can Japan (200% of GDP in debt). Not Switzerland either.

I think you know why France and Germany can go bankrupt - because they do not control their own currency. These two borrow in Euros, but only the ECB can print more Euros - not France or Germany. So... in theory, if the ECB refuses to support them, then France and Germany can go bankrupt.

But why can Poland go bankrupt? Doesn't it have the Zloty? Hmmm...

First problem: the zloty is not a global reserve currency. There is practically no demand for it, and anyone that wants to pay Poland for something pays in Euro.

Second problem: a huge chunk of Polish debt is denominated in foreign currency, because - surprise surprise - not very many people want to own zloty bonds.

This means that Polish debt in dollars, euros, and Swiss francs cannot be paid simply by printing more zlotys.

If the zloty falls sharply, the real burden of servicing euro/dollar debts explodes, and this is what causes emerging-market sovereign defaults. Look at Argentina and Turkey to understand why these things can be problematic.

America and Japan meanwhile can always create more money to meet their obligations (the cost is inflation/devaluation, not bankruptcy). This is because they owe people only in dollars and yen.

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [421]


I hope so.

When Poles and Germans and French go extinct - because their amazing development gave them an allergy to having children - I hope Russians will still be around because we were more like Nigerians and Tajiks.

Unfortunately, I think you are wrong, and we are still headed for your wonderful level of development that will send us all the way of the dinosaurs.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [937]


Who do you think owns America's private banks? Martians?

JP Morgan - the largest bank in America, by a wide margin - is largely owned by pension funds and index funds. Fidelity, Blackrock, State Street and Vanguard own the largest chunk of shares.

Other large American banks have the same ownership structure.

These are not "fat cat" hedge funders or private equity "masters of the universe", but boring funds that make investing accessible to average Americans while earning tiny fees in the process.

Again - this is the money of American retirees.

Calculating everything in F-35s is very fun of course... Certainly more fun than counting Social Security checks, Medicaid and Medicare bills, or repairs to federal highways and bridges - which is more than 3/4's of what this debt is used to pay for.

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [421]


May God preserve us from ever reaching your levels of development.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [937]


Haha.

So you don't think you owe anything, to the people that provided you with a loan?

The US public debt structure, is:

1) Foreign entities hold roughly 31%.

2) Domestic investors (private and public) hold about 54%.

3) The Federal Reserve holds around 15%.

So out of $24B, $7.4B goes to foreigners. $13B goes to American persons and institutions, and $3.6B goes to the Fed.

Meaning 69% of those interest payments stay in the country.

-//-

In any case, your numbers are wrong.

The US actually pays approximately $85 billion a month in interest payments alone. Last year it was around $70B a month.

My point - it's not for "absolutely nothing". A large chunk of it goes into the pockets of American teachers, bus drivers, soldiers, and other average people that pool their savings into pension funds, or what have you.

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [421]


Because they are Papuans, with no history of statehood or experience at diplomacy.

They behave as any other Cargo Cult (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cult).

They believe that if they cast the right incantations, march in the correct formations, and provide the necessary sacrifices - then the white man from the sky will come and drop more Euros and more Dollars.

When they do everything correctly (to their mind), and the White Man is still upset - they don't understand why.

"Did we not say we are Atlanticists?"

"Did we not confirm our belief in Western liberal democracy?"

"Did we not pray to the Gods of 'Strong Institutions' and 'Checks and Balances'?"

"Did we not profess our hatred of Russians and Chinese, from the mountains, and the valleys, and from the depths of the sea?"

"Did we not host ten million national prayer breakfasts where we showed we are all good Christians?"

They don't understand why... after all this... somebody would keep bringing up awkward questions about massacres and missing money and... about a realistic plan for victory.

The current generation of Ukrainian leadership all grew up on Soros grants, British Council grants, USAID grants, and various "developmental workshops" in places like Princeton and Oxford.

Pygmies. Hobbits. Papuans.

In contrast - Russia has a 1,200 year history of developing independent policy - without looking into the White Man's mouth for the next morsel.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [937]


America and Europe have been unable to force a defeat on the second poorest country in Europe.

See how that works?

When you don't mention population, size, or resources?

In this same fashion - one could argue that Russia
Is easily able to annihilate the richest country in Europe. Liechtenstein.

Probably we could take care of Luxembourg, Andorra, and San Marino as well. Hell - I think we have a chance against even Monaco!

How many tanks and how many divisions does Monaco have?

The Pope - how many cruise missiles has he? How many fighter jets?

News / Taxes, taxes everywhere [31]


That's f*cking insane.

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [421]


The soul that sinneth, it shall die.
The son shall not bear the iniquity of the father,
neither shall the father bear the iniquity of the son: the righteousness of the righteous shall be upon him, and the wickedness of the wicked shall be upon him.

Your hatred of Russians, has disconnected you from humanity's core principles.

News / Taxes, taxes everywhere [31]

To be honest, I was in the camp of those people that advocated Russia must borrow like crazy, and run up our debt to at least 80-100% of GDP.

I wanted Chinese style investment into infrastructure at 25-30% of GDP. Use American and German money to build all the railroads, dams, and highways that our economy is in desperate need of. God knows we could service a debt load like that easily, with the money coming in from oil and gas (while the planet still needs it - one day the Klondike will be over).

But Putin, and the uber-fiscal conservatives around him, were and are allergic to foreign debt. He paid back the Paris Club ahead of schedule, and the IMF and World Bank - even though he didn't need to. He very carefully issued Eurobonds (which are now all in technical default), but preferred to rely instead on internal financing.

Maybe he knew he was gonna declare war on Ukraine all along, and that's why he kept us on some kind of debt hunger diet... but even that seems an erroneous explanation.

We still could have run up the debts, and then when he invaded Ukraine - those debts would be declared in default just like the small existing ones. It would be Western problem.

I would like to see Western politicians force write offs on their funds of not several hundred billion, but $2 Trillion dollars of Russian bonds. Haha! They would not do it. We might have been in a better negotiating position now, if we really ran up our debt.

News / Taxes, taxes everywhere [31]


Pensions' and state salaries' growth has not kept up with inflation - true - so real income for many people has stagnated. But across the economy at large, wage growth has exceeded inflation.

Perversely, this is driving further inflation, because we have a demand side problem with inflation in Russia. People are earning more money than ever, and are trying to buy more goods than ever - but Russian industry can't keep up, whereas imports have been drastically curtailed.


There's literally hundreds of billions of dollars of FX pouring in annually. The restrictions in place in 2022 are gone - you can buy as many dollars as you want. You can go, and get $10 million in new dollar bills, and no one will bat an eye. The problem is - there isn't much to buy with that FX. Europe and America won't sell to us, so everything is going to China. In a matter of years, the automobile market has become dominated by Chinese players - for example.


Invest in government bonds (if you have a view on inflation going down), in equities, in real estate, in precious metals, into private equity, into private credit - whatever you want. So long as it's in Russia, or a country on the list of "friendly countries".

News / Taxes, taxes everywhere [31]


Yes you are.

Russia represents a fiscal fortress. What really matters is our overall debt burden, which is tiny compared to both Poland and the United States (20% vs 50% and 120%).

The bond yields may seem extreme, but the primary driver for this is inflation (which is stubbornly above 15% in Russia since the war started).

This means that every year, Russia's debt becomes devalued by 15% in real terms. Since we don't need external rollover financing, we don't care if foreigners discount that debt. In fact, foreigners can't buy our debt anyway, because their governments forbid them.

Together, this means that every 7-8 years or so, we inflate away the lion's share of the previously accumulated debt.

Further, it may seem like paying a 15% coupon is very expensive, but you have to remember that the primary buyers for government debt in Russia are state owned banks and pension funds. We essentially have a captive buyer, that has no choice but to buy Russian bonds. Effectively, the government's left pocket, pays its right pocket - in the same way as happens when the Fed begins to buy trillions of dollars of Treasuries.

In short:

1) Russia has a closed capital account (meaning Ruble debt is trapped inside a domestic cage).

2) Russia has a tremendously healthy current account surplus from commodities (even as the ruble depreciates, the river of FX keeps flowing in).

3) We have a population that has little choice but to hold Ruble-denominated financial assets

4) This combination lets the state use inflation as a stealth tax, eroding liabilities quietly. What Novichok constantly brings up - inflation as a tax.

For the Kremlin, high ruble inflation is great, because it allows them to meet their obligations much easier. Each barrel of oil brings in more and more rubles, whereas pension and state salaries' growth do not keep up.

News / Taxes, taxes everywhere [31]


At least you're not doing as badly as Romania. Those idiots run a suicidal deficit of 9.3% of GDP, and are only planning to reach the EU target of 3% somewhere in the mid 2030s.

However, you are not far from France, which actually runs a slightly tighter ship than you (5.6% vs 6.1%). On September 8th their government will collapse, and borrowing costs will soar further. Yesterday they were at Italian levels (for the first time ever). In two weeks, they'll probably be at Bulgaria levels.

For the time being, the problem is more political in nature, but can quickly turn into a full blown crisis.

Francois Bayrou says that there is a very real possibility that France will need an IMF bailout, if the parliament doesn't support his cabinet's program. There's practically a 100% chance at this point that his government will collapse, since the Front National and Socialists have already said they won't help him.

I never thought I would read such a sentence in my life. FRANCE! A founding member of the IMF! A board member! The country that has supplied more IMF Directors than any other (Lagarde and Dominique Strauss-Kahn most recently) - will be bailed out by the organization.

Truly crazy times we live in.

But back on topic - Poles really are running a kamikaze budget. What on Earth were you thinking, putting together budgets that are €65Bn in the red?

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [421]


I'd argue they did more harm than good to Ukraine.

They drown out the voices of pragmatists that want Ukraine to secure a realistic settlement. They make anybody speaking out for peace feel like a quisling, whereas they themselves propose no real path to securing a victory.

Hiding behind the shoulders of the Ukrainian army, they taunt the Russians. Meanwhile, real Russian soldiers and real Ukrainian soldiers only speak about each other in terms of respect, in this third year of the war. Obviously there is hate, but there is almost no one left who makes fun of "mobiks" or "slaves".

These Shiba Inu dogs, meanwhile, are spiraling into ever more grotesque forms of xenophobia. Recently, they were celebrating the anniversary of the death of Daria Dugina. Enough said.

History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [421]


Ok Boomer.


lol, it's not PR segmenting. All the Ukrs, Brits, Germans, and Americans of Twitter are piling onto the Poles that dare make a peep in support of Nawrocki or Kominiak-Kamysz.

These people were not sophisticated to begin with, seeing as they all adopted an avatar of a Shiba Inu dog as their mascot. They see the world in black and white - elf good, orc bad.

So when someone within their ranks begins to make questioning noises regarding Ukraine's angelic status, they all go after them like a pack of dogs.

I've seen with my own eyes, how these Uber Ukraine supporters, scare off people that live in neighboring countries (Romania, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia) from supporting Ukraine.

They make no allowance for nuance, and treat anybody that questions Ukraine's actions as a Kremlin agent or even a fascist.

Posts like the one below, for example:

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History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [421]


Uhhhmm, they most certainly are.

Poland has all but ceased help to Ukraine. Now, even the refugee benefits are on the chopping block.

One, little, tiny, illustration of how Polish-Ukrainian relations have gone downhill, is the radicalization of a Twitter account called "War Vehicle Tracker".

This guy has spent the past three years tracking vehicle losses for both sides. The databases he has contributed to, have been used as sources by the NYTimes, FT, WSJ, and others. He has hosted literally DOZENS of fundraisers for troops in Ukraine, that included drone purchases, excavators, PPE, etc.

Now this guy has turned into a Roman Dmowski, after 3 years of experiencing Ukrainian ingratitude. His posts yesterday:

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History / Poles should apologise to Ukrainians first [421]

Tensions between Poland and Ukraine are once again on the rise... The Wolyn Massacre is a subject that seems to provide infinite grist for the hatred mill.

This past week, Ukrainians have been reacting to different statements coming from Polish state officials. First, Nawrocki's proposed ban on Banderist symbology, and then Kosiniak-Kamysz's threat that Ukraine will never join the EU so long as it doesn't perform full-scale exhumations and proper reburials of the dead.

So, obviously... I go to my favorite Ukrainian website (censor.net), and scour the comments. Today they were interesting. The Ukrainians are adopting a new line of defense against Polish accusations.

Behold, the Top 3 comments on Censor, under an article about Kosiniak-Kamysz's statements:

1) "Tell me WHY MODERN Ukraine should recognize its ephemeral involvement in an interethnic conflict of Polish citizens on its territory at that time?"

2) "Poland has been 'deflated'. Indeed, it didn't last for a very long time. Ukraine is truly surrounded by faggots from all sides, who are ready to suck katsap dick as a first order priority, rather than to help their neighbor in a fight."

3) "Polish nationalists should impose a taboo on national-historical pretensions towards Ukraine - IT IS BLEEDING TODAY, and Poland wants it to also bleed tomorrow? IDIOTS!!! Look for the Kremlin's agents among your leaders."

Source: censor.net/ru/news/3570663/kosinyak-kamysh-prizval-ukrainu-priznat-volynskuyu-tragediyu/sortby/tree/order/desc/page/1#comments

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News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [937]

@Torq

As I've said - experiencing some schizophrenia.

On the one hand - great news... on the other side deep disgust.

These are not the Europeans that we know...

Maybe it's demographics, maybe it's Brussels (with all its dysfunction). Maybe it's something else... but it's all rather sad.

America is crazy, Russia is dying out, Europe is disabled. Even China is in trouble. The world is changing right under our feet.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [937]


Doesn't seem to make any difference to you being mere passengers in the negotiation of your fate - which is the central message of my post.

If Russia was not sanctioned, it would buy everything it needs (which is exactly what we did shortly before the war). The same way China bought Volvo, and every other thing they needed for their industries.

Europeans are for sale - always. Mammon is their God. You want to leap 40 years ahead in semiconductor manufacturing? Buy ASML. The regulators can be bribed through their national governments, who will lobby the commission and the MEPs for approval.

Europe has no "strategic" guiding light. Always easily splittable, bought, and exploited. A continent of pygmies, albeit very rich and advanced Pygmies.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [937]

@Torq

Ukraine is very upset with the EU. Instead of using the American's passing moment of madness, to reassert yourselves - you got on your knees and proceeded to give Trump a quality blowjob.

From Russia, I say - well done.

If you need it - we can help you rise from your knees... and put you on all fours. I think it may be more comfortable for you this way, because after all the knees get tired.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [937]


Not something to boast about, for the mother continent.

It took a very long time for you to understand, that GDP per capita does not equate to influence.

It certainly makes you most attractive to people from less fortunate parts of the world, struggling to build a better life for themselves and their children.

However, it emerges - suddenly - that having oil reserves and the entire periodic table - is more important than making the best saloon car, or producing nice watches.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [937]

@Torq

It is a grotesque sight.

As a Russian - pleasing. As a fan of Europe - depressing.

Two offshoots of Europe - Russia and America - are spit roasting your ass.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [937]

The article is good, but the headline is already enough for discussion (see screenshot of Financial Times headline below).

Are you Europeans not embarrassed enough yet?

Have you had enough yet, of crawling on your knees?

In addition, a pithy quote from Politico.eu article:

For years, the European Union believed that its economic size, with 450 million consumers, brought with it geopolitical power and influence in international trade relations. This year will be remembered as the year in which this illusion evaporated," Draghi said [...]
"We have been pushed by the same ally to increase military spending, a decision we might have had to make anyway - but in ways that probably do not reflect Europe's interests." [...]
Despite its economic power, the EU plays only a "marginal" role in Trump's peace efforts in Ukraine, was "an observer" of the massacre in Gaza and "China has made it clear that it does not consider Europe an equal partner."

Source: politico.eu/article/mario-draghi-eu-donald-trump-geopolitics-central-bank-power-influence/

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News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [937]


Hahahaha.

What does this have to do with you, Pole?

Will you tell me now, you are speaking with me from
"The West"?

I think your friends have just shown you, that they consider "5 million strong" Finland, which is much further East, far more Western than yourselves.

"West" is not geographic. It is cultural.

You can write me a thousand posts about what evil orcs are doing to ruin the West's plans - but you will never convince me that you truly believe in your heart - that you are "West".

This is Polish psychosis and schizophrenia.

Instead of allying with your brothers - by blood, history, and faith - you will sell us to whomever is your new lord.

Disgusting.

Pathetic.

Good luck.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [937]


You can call me an orc all day - I don't care.

When a head of state does it - not cool. Pretty foolish in fact, if you have the best interests of 5 million Finns at heart.

Finland's economy benefited tremendously from trade with Russia. Russia's second largest city (with a population the size of Finland), is just on the other side of the border. Hundreds of thousands of people travelled both ways, before the war. This brought huge tourism revenue for Helsinki, not to speak of the real estate market.

If you decide you want to be best friends with somebody 7,000 kilometers away, and a total dick to your huge neighbor - this has a tendency to end badly. His country is kind of the prime example of what I am describing.

There is even a good term for how to behave properly in such situation - Finlandization (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finlandization). This is what Finland did between 1948 and 1992. When it was rational.

This is when it became one of the richest countries in the world, and the home of such world renown companies like Nokia.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [937]

It is hard to get Bobko angry, but the President of Finland has succeeded!

The Wall Street Journal, reported this:

During the closed-door meeting, Finnish President Alexander Stubb called the eastern Ukrainian cities of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk "a bastion against the Huns," a description that appeared to impress Trump, according to the officials.

This is not some PolishForums, with orcs and Nigerians. You are president of a country - you idiot.

He may be riding high with his own Finns right now for becoming some kind of a diplomatic Superman (after all, Finland was invited and Poland was not)... but I'm not sure he is doing his country many favors with statements like these.

One day, our war in Ukraine will end, and sanctions will be lifted, and Alexander Stubb might need something from Russia. We'll remember then, that we are "Huns".

-//-

In another instance, this cosmic moron said to Trump that "We had managed to find a solution in 1944, and I'm sure that we'll be able to find a solution in 2025 to end Russia's war of aggression,"

This assh*le needs to be reminded what exactly the solution was in 1944:

1) Cede even more land to Russia than they lost in 1939 (genius)

2) Pay us billions in reparations

3) Expel all German soldiers from Finland (which immediately triggered the Lapland War)

4) Acknowledge that they had been an ALLY OF HITLERITE GERMANY

5) Sign the Finnish-Soviet Friendship Treaty, where they became bound to defend the Soviet Union from any attack by what would become NATO.

That's a great solution Mr. President! Did you ask how Zelensky feels about it?

I'm not sure Zelensky is gonna feel as good, as this Finn seems to expect him to feel about this wonderful historical analogy.

My favorite part of "the solution", was where you had to admit you were an ally of the Nazis for 4 years. Deliciously ironic for Ukraine.

-//-

In conclusion, we must punish this idiot after the Ukraine War ends. Likes to call Russians "Huns", he may just get a taste.

P.S. I'm noticing that my list of countries that must be punished is starting to grow quite long.

I also feel it is necessary to punish Azerbaijan, for bullying Armenia while we were busy in Ukraine.

Also - we should definitely punish the jihadists in Syria for kicking out our boy Assad. Put him back in power, and wreck the lot of them - for a second time.

Oh boy... so much work to do - this Ukraine war cannot end soon enough.