News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


75% Russian - give or take.

Russia has a population almost 4 times as large as Ukraine's.

The loss ratio between the sides is rather close to 1:1.

For Ukraine to win this war over the long term, it has to kill at least 5 Russians for every dead Ukrainian.

So long as the ratio is below 5:1, Ukraine will be slowly losing this war.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


Indeed.

Even in 2035, demographers project Russia will have 20 million plus males aged 20-39.

That's half of Ukraine's modern pre-war population.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


Extrapolation from present dynamics. Wars never develop linearly. This is not a mathematical function.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]

Afghanistan lost 2 million dead, while we lost approximately 50,000 men. We were trying to help them lead a more dignified life. Thanks to the CIA and Pakistani ISI - our mission was a failure.

We beat the Finns twice. In 1940, and then together with their buddy Hitler. Hard to call the terms of the peace deal a "victory".

We literally erased Prussia from the f*cking map. We gave most of it to the Poles - massive trolling. But we took the heart of Prussia for ourselves, and today called Kaliningrad. Prussia does not exist - because of Russia.

Japanese signed the peace treaty not because of two atom bombs - but a pending Soviet invasion from Sakhalin into Hokkaido.

Poles. Really? Seriously?

Who? Where? What?

Georgia ate sh*t. Syria - we conquered until we were called to other more pressing work. Chechnya - total submission.

If you look at all of Russian military history, it's only behind France and Britain in "winningness". More battles fought, over more centuries, and won - than anybody else - except those two countries.

Russia did not become the largest country in the world by losing a lot of wars.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


You wouldn't dare fire a missile at us.

You would keep it conventional.

In conventional terms we will wipe the floor with your army - which is 15% of Ukraine's in terms of personnel.

There is no army in Europe that is even close to the level of the Ukrainian military in capabilities and size. Only the Russian army - which is far superior.

This should tell you about your position on the totem pole.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


Funny - very funny - but you know I'm right.

Your populations are soft as sh*t.

I have read numerous reports from Western Europe, where they admit than any Western army that experienced Ukraine's difficulties would long since have collapsed and surrendered.

Our only mistake was attacking someone as tough as us, instead of you.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


Why not cite people.com or Women's Health?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


When I listen to Poles about civilizational collapse - please cart me over to the nearest psychiatric ward.

Russia does not collapse. It bends, it deforms, but it never collapses.

We'll outlast the lot of you. The Solar System and the Milky Way galaxy will be Russian.

Start learning Russian.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


Good.

We should make a careful tabulation of everyone that expressed joy over our moments of weakness during the past three years.

Find them, even while they are sh*tting - and waste them. As the Fuhrer has promised.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


Bobko could have told you as much.

Thanks, Mr. Cronkite.

Next stop - Trump will be put in his place by China. He wants accommodation? He thinks the extremely high tariffs are not "in the interests of either party"? He thinks things went "a little too far"?

His secretary says "We were not seeking a decoupling from China"?

What if China says - "you know what? Unpleasant taste left in the mouth"? Makes you bend over backwards and suck your own penis before they talk to you?

What will you do then? Accommodate China or start World War 3?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


You've been behaving very strangely my friend.

Not worried that you will be counted amongst the Russians?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


You are ready to be a Russian.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


America is a republic and not a democracy.

In a democracy, the people rule directly through majority rule.

In a republic, the people are the "source of power" - so they still have a claim to rule - but they exercise it through a constitution, and always through representatives.

In a democracy, the head of state can be a monarch. In a republic, a monarch can never be head of state.

In a democracy, it's possible for there to be no limits on power (what Trump wants). In a republic, there are always checks on power.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


You can't get government funding in China to go to the States to pursue those kind of degrees. Neither can you in Russia. It wasn't always the case, but pretty quickly the state had caught on that these people are useless to the country when they return.

--------

Another example for Grunnie, of "idea filtration":

Subject: Parliamentary Democracy

Desire: Legitimacy and stability through institutional continuity.

Danger: Parliamentary unpredictability and fragmentation among the elites

Adaptation: The State Duma exists, but the ruling party (United Russia) monopolizes power. The presidency is strong and enduring. Elections are held, but real opposition is blocked or domesticated.

Result: A decorative multiparty system masking centralized executive rule.

-------

Now that I have explained... I'm curious to hear what sort of ideas you wanted to offer us?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


You have a very caricaturist view on Russia, and the Russian state.

The Russian government - just like the Chinese government, has been borrowing ideas from the West in industrial quantities.

Simply... the ideas first go through a filtration (or quarantine) process. Unlike postcolonial societies that typically adopt Western structures wholesale, China and Russia have for centuries approached Western imports with suspicion and careful calculation.

The thinking process goes something like this:

1) Try to understand if the subject represents a desirable thing.

2) Identify the inherent dangers within.

3) Adapt it to local realities and your needs.

-----

I'll try to explain using two examples. Let's do Russia first... and use the example of state corporations.

Desire: Market tools to generate wealth and compete globally.

Danger: Independent capital centers and foreign penetration.

Adaptation: Giants like Rosneft and Rostec operate like corporations, but are run by regime loyalists. Market language is retained, but primary function is geopolitical leverage.

Result: A "sovereign capitalism" that mimics the forms of the West while still serving the state's interests.

----

Now China. It admires the West's education system, and wants to copy it. The thinking:

Desire: Innovation and skilled workforce.

Danger: Intellectual freedom.

Adaptation: STEM fields are emphasized; humanities are surveilled. Foreign degrees are prized-but returning students are watched.

Result: A meritocratic elite carefully surveilled and steeped in national values

Off-Topic / USA News and Poland - part 15 [673]


This matters just a little bit less than zero.

For many regulated entities in the United States that have to hold high quality collateral, or within any market framework where you are looking for something "bulletproof" - this asset type is often defined not through its credit rating, but it's actually literally called "Treasuries and other equivalents".

Under modern Basel III banking rules, US Treasuries are defined as Tier 1 assets and have a 0% risk weight. If you are talking about the repo markets, then... Treasuries are the backbone of collateral in secured lending, and counterparties accept them regardless of credit rating.

Big mutual funds and other such entities that have to maintain some kind of defined investment policy, within the legal language of their written policies specify: "U.S. Treasuries" or "obligations of the United States Government" - not "AAA-rated sovereigns."

Probably the most important fact to know - is that the Federal Reserve accepts Treasuries at face value for collateral and monetary operations, independent of ratings.

If the United States does not have a AAA rating, then nobody else's AAA rating makes any sense. On account the United States has never once defaulted on its debt, ever since the country was founded in the 1700s.

News / Grzegorz Braun extinguishes Hanukkah candles in Polish Parliament [414]


Despite calls for resignation, Szymczyk has since been promoted to Head of Ballistics Training, citing "lived experience" and "a strong spatial memory of projectile arcs in enclosed spaces."

I should incorporate Szymczyk into my PANSTWO book.

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News / Grzegorz Braun extinguishes Hanukkah candles in Polish Parliament [414]

Kania has a special talent for creating thread titles.

"Grzegorz Braun Extinguishes Hanukkah Candles in Polish Parliament" could be the title of a book.

Another good book would be:

"Chief of Police Gen. Jarosław Szymczyk Fires a Grenade Launcher In His Office".

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


Understand - not military aid, but direct budgetary support. You are paying the pensions of Ukraine's seniors, and the salaries of their teachers, cops, and doctors.

You are paying for subsidies, aimed at keeping electrical and gas prices affordable for the population.

Even now, in the midst of full on war, Zelensky is spending billions on roads and bridges (he gets a lot of sh*t for this). You are paying for this too.

None of this directly helps the front. It just keeps Ukraine afloat.

I think if the average cash-strapped European voter understood that he is not sending a Kalashnikov to Ukraine, but instead cash that ensures that Ukrainians continue to enjoy the cheapest electricity in Europe - he would not be happy.

European governments are doing a good job at keeping this information with a low profile.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


Perhaps, but they may know something we do not. It doesn't appear that way, however.

I think what they "know", is that we have much more endurance than Ukraine. Ukraine after a few more years of war, will become a true failed state. No amount of reconstruction or European integration will reverse that decline.

This year their budget is in good shape, through almost $45 billion of direct budgetary support from allies. Next year there is already a forecast $15B deficit, and the year after it is triple (if European don't keep funding the budget directly).

I think this threat that "we can outlast you" - is a very effective one. The longer the war goes, the more non linear the front movements will be.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]

@Novichok

Am a bit confused by what Oliver wrote about Medinsky's words about Great Britain and France financing Russia during the Great Northern War.

Maybe he misunderstood something, but as far as I know this journalist speaks Russian and Ukrainian fluently.

Now it's Ukraine who is being financed by Great Britain and France, so I fail to see the logic in this argument. Doesn't that mean that Ukraine is in the position that Russia was when it beat the Swedes?

Also I can't believe Medinsky actually issued the threat that people sitting at the table will lose loved ones.

Seems like such a quiet and nerdy fellow... but then opens his mouth and it's Pinochet.

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News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]

Well, now it's clear why the negotiations ended after just two hours. Our Russian guys went "full Stalin" on the Ukrainians. Told them if you don't give up 4 regions now, next time it will be 6. Also told them we are ready to war forever.

Ollie Carrol, the Economist's Ukraine correspondent, reports:

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News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]

There are many arguments for why Ukraine won't "crumble", even without American aid. They are just... not very convincing.

Europe will need several more years, or even close to a decade, to arrive at a place where it can fully "close" Ukraine's demands.

To my mind, weapon stockpiles and intelligence sharing, is not nearly as important as what is happening within Ukrainian society. They are exhausted, they are eating each other, and eating the government. The population's patience with representatives of the territorial recruitment centers has reached zero. In most Ukrainian villages, it is impossible to find a military age male during daytime.

People are fed up with the inequalities that the war produces daily. The most popular refrain, is that they want to see all the cops, judges, recruiters, and every other sort of bureaucrat - sent to the front. People see that the sons of parliamentarians and millionaires do not serve, and have no issues travel into the Schengen Zone. People are tired of reading about corruption scandals with weapons procurement - where hundreds of thousands of defective shells are delivered to soldiers, who as a result are not able to reply to Russian fires.

I think Zelensky feels this, as a politician. His maximalist position of "no talks until a final victory" just doesn't fly anymore. People want peace, but a just peace. Giving up territory that they had not lost - that's not seen as just, but rather like a Russian bluff. It's the job of the Russian military then, to show them that this is the inevitable destination to which this train is headed.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


I think:

1) It was important to go, because delaying further risked Trump getting annoyed in an unpredictable way.

2) It doesn't matter what was actually discussed, it's important that a Russian and Ukrainian delegation sat down for the first time in three years. Trump can congratulate himself over this achievement.

3) Maximalist demands were presented, because it was expected that Ukraine will refuse to entertain them. This buys several more weeks of time. Fundamentally, a ceasefire is not to our advantage at this time.

4) We know at least from Steve Witkoff, that there are people within the Trump administration that sympathize with the Russian demands. Trump himself has repeatedly said that "Zelensky risks losing the entire country if he doesn't play ball."

5) We got Trump hooked on the idea that things won't work without his personal involvement, and immediately Peskov says yes it's a tremendous idea, but will take time to prepare. Again - weeks, potentially months of time bought.

Why are these weeks, months, so important? On a simple level - each week (at current rates), represents 200-300 square kilometers of territory that we will never give back to the Ukrainians. So in this way, a few weeks might mean several dozen more villages, or much more comfortable front lines for future defense (either shortened, or on favorable terrain).

Bigger picture - these weeks and months buy time to make a further and more accurate evaluation of the degree to which Ukraine has been weakened. So far, they have been cruising on the remnants of the last large package authorized by Biden in the fall. Recently, Trump approved the transfer from Germany of 100 PATRIOT missiles and some other materiel, but this was judged by the Russian side as a sort of homeopathic dose. Most predictions are that by summer, Ukraine will begin to acutely feel the shortage of US aid.

If we can drag this thing out to the summer, maybe the Ukrainians will truly begin to crumble - and then the idea of giving up the entirety of the four regions will not seem so outrageous to them.

But while we drag this thing out, it's important to keep Trump engaged, and the Europeans sidelined.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


That's one thing - and a super important one at that, but I think there's more.

Exiting Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye completely means losing a further massive amount of population, and critically important industry.

The city of Kherson is 300K people, and Zaporozhye is 700-800K. Kherson is an important port city, and the home of Ukrainian shipbuilding. Zaporozhye is Europe's largest city (by territory), and a century old industrial hub - where everything from transformers to turbines is produced.

In all three years of this war, we have not gained conclusive control of such a large city. We controlled Kherson for about 6-7 months, before we got ejected to the other side of the river. The other "large" cities we gained control of between 2022 and 2025 are Melitopol, Mariupol, Berdyansk, Tokmak - but they are not in the same category.

Donetsk (million plus people) and Luhansk (400k) and Sevastopol (550K) were all gained 10 years ago.

So if Zelensky simply gives away two large cities, and hundreds of smaller settlements, I think the Ukrainians will eat him alive. The situation on the front has to become much more threatening, before the Ukranian people would begin to view such a deal as potentially to their advantage.

Maybe the situation is already extremely bad - and this is just not being communicated transparently to the population. Maybe, the loss of these additional territories is a quite real possibility, and this is why Zelensky has in the end flown to Turkey - after years of promising never to talk to Russia.

In the past few days Russian forces have seized large areas in the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kupyansk directions. What took approximately a week last fall, is being done in a day.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


Does it have them?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]

The negotiations are suspended. Russian side says temporarily, Ukrainians say conclusively. They were enraged by Russia's extreme demands, which included a pullout of Ukrainian forces from the territory of the four regions annexed into Russia as a precondition for a ceasefire.

The Turks say both delegations are still at the palace.

Trump said aboard Air Force One that he thinks he needs to give Putin a call, and arrange a meeting. Peskov, Putin's spokesman, confirmed that a meeting between the US and Russian presidents would have an all-important effect. However, for such a call to happen, it's first necessary to complete a long process of preparation - where expert groups from both the US and Russia would draft a practical agenda.

A funny side note - Ukrainians used a translator to talk to the Russians. The leader of the Ukrainian delegation, Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov, is an ethnic Tatar that didn't speak Ukrainian until two years ago. He probably needs a translation of what he had just said himself, so it's just as well they brought a translator.

Surprised they didn't decide to speak English to our team. That would be most "European" and "North Atltantic" of them.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]

I believe the appropriate phrase in such cases is - "eat sh*t".

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]

Hour after the news - Trump still does not blame Putin. Woe CMS and Jon...

"I don't believe anything's going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together," Trump said on Thursday. "But we're going to have to get it solved because too many people are dying."

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [523]


Yes like China or India (the world's largest democracy). Between the two countries - already 35% of the globe's population.

Add to this huge countries like Indonesia and Brazil (the president of which is flying back to Russia, just to present a message to Putin).


The man that ended the Chechen War through sheer power of will, and inherited a broken Russia from Yeltsin - he is scared shitless. Yes, of course.