News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]


Meaningless.

In the last days of the war, nearly the entire "cream" of Germany's scientific class began escaping into what would become the western occupation zones.

The most important physicists and chemists in Berlin, Leipzig, and Dresden nearly all fled. This is how we missed people like Von Braun, and Heisenberg.

America took nearly all the top tier talent - as I wrote above. The USSR got second rate folks, like plant directors, metallurgists, chemists, and draftsmen. Basically infrastructure and mid-level industrial experts who hadn't been mobile or foresighted enough to flee.

-//-

In a fundamental sense - America got "system level innovators", while Russia gained reverse-engineering talent and production know-how.

Comparing by simple numbers of people "taken", gives you a wrong sense of what was going on.

Everyone important in the eastern universities, had known by May/June that if they fell into Soviet hands it could be a very long time before they would be allowed to return home. In the event, the last Germans were only allowed to go home in 1958.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]

Another fun fact - Dugin was kind of at the root of the movement in Ukraine, which eventually bore Azov.

Now, of course, Dugin calls them a "satanic inversion" - an apostate offspring of Eurasianism that turned against its parent civilization.

He thinks... Western influence "corrupted" the Slavic unity he imagined.

But whether he likes it or not, Biletskiy for many years considered Dugin a guiding light.

-//-

Russian nationalism has a hard time coexisting with Ukrainian nationalism. Which is why the Bolsheviks correctly identified it as a cancer.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]


Yes, they carry on the torch of the 19th century Slavophiles and Pan-Slavists. Like Aksakov, Pogodin... And the old Eurasianists which appeared after the Revolution, attempting to explain how Russia collapsed to Bolshevism (like Prince Trubetzkoy, and Vernadsky).

It's not new.

Even in the times of Ivan the Terrible, there were people attempting to argue that Russia represents a unique axis in the world - a blend of Tataro-Mongol militarism, and Byzantine merger of church and autocracy.


They are not simple dummies who didn't study well at school. But they are lazy.

Dugin went through an evolution, as wide spectrum as the evolution Russian went through between 1989 and 2025.

Like the young Viktor Orban, Dugin was an unapologetic liberal. Was part of the underground Soviet intelligentsia, mixing with artists, poets, and philosophers. Read forbidden texts, and listened to Western punk rock.

Then something happened to him in France, where he met Alain de Benoist, the founder of the European Nouvelle Droite.

So... it is pretty funny when people say Russian money is fueling Marine Le Pen.

Right politics did not come to France from Russia, but from France to Russia.

Further - when Russia's reformers were designing the power vertical of Russia in the early 1990s, they borrowed primarily from two systems. The French and the American - because they felt that the Uber-Powerful presidencies of France and America fit Russia's cultural and historical profile.

Putin is a big fan of De Gaulle and Mitterrand.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]


America got the lion's share of Nazi scientists. Werner Von Braun alone, was worth his weight in gold. He built the American space program.

They got nearly all the nuclear physicists. We got two dudes that knew isotope separation and gas diffusion, while the Americans got the other 80% of what it takes to make an atom bomb.

The Americans got access to all of Germany's chemical geniuses. To Japan's biologists (who collected that data by killing tens of thousands of Chinese).

Quite strange to accuse the USSR of benefiting from Nazi technology, when it was the "Free World" that got the majority of the dividends.


Russia's old school historians - like Gumilev, Solzhenitsyn, and Klyuchevsky have argued that what explains Russia's backwardness is geography and history.

Endless open plains, and no natural borders left Russia constantly exposed to invasions. Because of this... Russia could never afford weak central power or decentralized feudalism like in Western Europe. But it was precisely decentralized feudalism which sowed the seeds of a future bourgeoisie and a working class.

So these historians, then see Russia as a "fortress civilization", always centralizing, militant, and constantly paranoid.

-//-

Modern Russian reformers, like Gaidar and Mau, subscribed more to your view. That Russia suffers from a "Dutch Disease" on steroids.

That is, that Russia's wealth in land and raw materials removed the incentive for modernization and innovation. The economy and state became addicted to resource rents (first serf labor and land, later oil and gas).

The elite, living off extraction rather than production, had little interest in legal or civic development. As Gaidar put it: "Russia learned to live by distributing resource rents, not creating value."

-//-

Finally we have neo-conservative (or Eurasianists
as they call themselves) historians now, like Dugin and Panarin.

To these guys - nothing is wrong with Russia.

They reject the premise of backwardness itself. They think we have our own unique civilization, based on communitarianism and autocracy, as opposed to the West's decadent individualism and commercialism.

-//-

As many Russians as there are, so many opinions there are about why we are living like we live.

Off-Topic / Random Chat Thread [531]

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Off-Topic / Stock Market Talk and Trading - part 2 [743]


It's what I think, and many other people...

But my friend - who's much more knowledgeable on the subject - continues to make fun of me. Telling me, "You called the last 46 recessions correctly".

Yes... I'm a bear. And us bears, we have been fighting an unfair fight - against Powell, Yellen, Bessent, and the rest - where the government drops trillions of dollars from the sky during CoVid and its aftermath.

Any bear would die fighting against those kinda odds.

But sooner or later - us bears will have our day, when all our concerns will finally manifest.

-//-

My friend has answers to all the questions however:

1) AI Boom - a true boom, mostly of a real estate nature. Driving semiconductors, steel, concrete, cement, energy, and property.

2) Problems of the "Poors" - Who cares about the poor. The US stock market and economy has become completely disconnected from the poor (this is what he tells me). If they can't pay for their car loans, or default on their mortgages - it doesn't matter. It's not 2008. The rich drive the economy forward, and the poor are just an unnecessary appendix. If they all died tomorrow - nothing would change.

Even McDonald's no longer depends on the low income folks for its revenues.

3) Debt - just a number.

4) Inflation - tail of tariff wars, otherwise would be zero

5) Tariffs - have you seen the tremendous amount of receipts Trump is collecting?

And so on, and so forth...

-//-

I still think we are all f*cked, but most of my friends think the gravy train will keep chugging along.

Off-Topic / Stock Market Talk and Trading - part 2 [743]

Because I love everyone on PF, regardless of how many times they've called me a butcher and an orc...

I will give you my macro advice.

Fix your profits, and get the hell out of the market.

The way things are looking now is very... frothy.

Smart, important people - like Jay Powell and Jamie Dimon - are saying equities are significantly overvalued.

Economists are saying that if you strip out the AI boom - the US economy is in a technical recession, or about to enter one.

America's "poor", are as poor as they've ever been. The wave of auto loan delinquencies is the first sign.

Off-Topic / Stock Market Talk and Trading - part 2 [743]


As they say in Russia - "one cannot drink his talent away".

Talent is talent.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]


It is stronger than any European army.

Objectively.

On short legs, with uncertain funding, and faltering manpower pipeline... but still stronger than anything on the Continent.

The implication then, is that Russia is stronger by far.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]


Ukraine has a strong army. Very strong army...

Cossack spirit is there, but directed in unorthodox directions.

Law / A tree obscuring a satellite dish - illegal in Poland? [15]


If "thuya" is the same thing as "туя", or "white cedar" .... then this is a sh*t tree.

I would never cry over a 6 meter thuya.

If we were discussing some Tien Shan pine, or old and mighty oak - I would get upset.

You can have a whole row of tall thuyas in 5-6 years.

Law / A tree obscuring a satellite dish - illegal in Poland? [15]

My advice, plus 10 zloty - will buy you a cup of coffee.

Law / A tree obscuring a satellite dish - illegal in Poland? [15]

The way you had written your original post - it was exactly the reverse of what you had just said.

Well done.


I'm not Polish. I don't live in Poland. I have zero familiarity with Polish law... but this seems strange on some fundamental juridical level.

It's hard for me to imagine, why there may be such a law in existence on a national level.

Instead, your neighbor may be referring to some local level laws, or maybe even ordinances written by your local homeowners association.

Law / A tree obscuring a satellite dish - illegal in Poland? [15]

@Kasper2025

Have you considered that it may be easier to move the dish, than to move the tree?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]

Ukrainian serviceman that underwent training with the Bundeswehr, claims that a single Ukrainian corps could conquer all of Germany.

Hilarity ensues in the comments.

Source: x.com/denisslatin/status/1981597656649457759?s=46

The point of the post is not that Ukraine is planning an invasion of Germany, but to highlight how ridiculous it is that in year 4 of this war, NATO armies still have a dismissive and unrealistic estimation of Ukrainian capabilities. Still viewing the Ukrainians as junior partner, and still confident in the superiority of their way of war ("We won't need drones - we have large air forces").

The author goes on to talk about the absurdities witnessed in Germany.

-//-

Several months prior, you had the head of Ukraine's Unmanned Forces, Robert Brovdi (callsign "Magyar") say that with just four of his UAV groups, he could turn any NATO airbase into Pearl Harbor, in just 15 minutes.

Then, there also followed a lot of indignant noises from NATO experts, who are uncomfortable with the idea that a poor Eastern European country can "kneecap" their armed forces.

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Off-Topic / USA News and Poland - part 17 [434]


Hail Trump!

Our Lord and Saviour!

News / Was Charlie Kirk popular in Poland? [437]

@johnny reb

Like a weed after harvest season - you arise.

News / Poland Sports News - part 2 [80]


Hahaha!

The Brotherhood is strong. Those who matter - they know what is the Truth.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]

I wonder what Putin thinks about Medvedev.

He used him like a condom, and this has had disastrous effects on Medvedev's mental health.

Does he feel bad in front of Medvedev, and this is why he gives him such latitude? Does he feel he owes him, for being such an obedient puppet through the "Great Switcheroo"?

Is it some kind of warning to the West? "Look, if you succeed in toppling my government - these are the types that will replace me!"

Maybe Putin does not know, that Medvedev gets hammered every night and then writes rants on Twitter?

News / Scandals, conflicts, tensions, arguments - real life examples from Poland [531]


I mean Orthodox.

I've heard/read many times from Orthodox priests, that if all the followers disappear - the Church will still be just fine. One day it will come back to life anyway.

But if it corrupts itself, bends this way and that, then such a Church will disappear from the Earth, because in the end - its power is Truth, and Truth cannot be changing.

I always thought this position was hilarious. A Church so proud of its traditions, that it doesn't care if it has any believers left.

It's not a new position either. In the 3-4th centuries some of the Patristic texts were already voicing this strange position.

-//-

So when you said - "If there are no good priests, then there should be no priests" - I laughed.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]


Contract between a country that can't produce 150 planes, and a country that cannot pay for 150 planes.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]


I think service in a place like that is not some like being officer of some Marine platoon.

It's probably a lifelong engagement, with some exceptions.

If you start diving with Western outfits, unless you are deeply trusted, you are probably not invited any longer to "experience exchanges", to contribute on classified projects in development, to attend conferences and symposia and so on and so forth.

I dived quite a few times with some instructors from the South, in and around the Florida Keys and Bahamas, as well as Puerto Rico. There's plenty of bases there. These guys know both people from the commercial diving community and the military diving community. My understanding, from listening to them, is that the communities overlap on some lower levels but are absolutely distinct at the more elite level (again with exceptions).

You also have absolute randos like James Cameron (director of Titanic), who are simultaneously luminaries in the field.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]

Plus, unlike a welder, these guys are:

1) Have graduate degrees and above

2) Know how to operate sophisticated surveillance equipment, as well as explosives.

3) Have a second purpose as SCIENTISTS, which they are supposed to fulfill.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]


You work for an o&g exploration and extraction company - very cool... but is it as cool as:

1) Using nuclear powered vessels as your "tender"?

2) Having access to state laboratories and manufacturing plants - which will produce equipment tailored to your exact specifications? This - giving you the chance to drive the entire science forward, and develop new standards and practices in the process?

3) Going to depths of 6,000 meters and more, as crew on deep sea vehicles?

4) Being briefed by professors from the Russian Academy of Sciences, and having access to the top talent from whichever industry you choose?

5) Defending your country?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]

@cms neuf

How does this cancel out the fact that Russia has some of the most experienced technical divers in the world, and the world's leading defense agency for studying the deep ocean?

America's equivalent of GUGI cries quietly in the corner, and is but a shadow of the Russian service.

I listened to a Congressional testimony from an American submariner last year - and he said "the Russians have certain 'eye-watering' capabilities."

If our army is not in the best shape, it doesn't mean the strategic forces have also been on a similar hunger diet.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]


2012 - genius. Adjust fx rate.


Some people can derive satisfaction out of life without an S 600 Saloon or a Patek.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]

This RUSI report, indicates that Russia pays as much as $20,000 a month to the personnel of GUGI:

"The time that naval personnel spend within the GUGI sees them paid considerable salaries without breaking the relationship between rank and pay, by treating their effective salaries as a deployment bonus related to the time they spend at extreme depths. As a result, in 2012, GUGI personnel were earning 600,000 roubles a month (around $20,000 at the time). The reason for this level of compensation is that the organisation is an extremely specialised one. During the Soviet era, in order to qualify, an individual had to be an officer and have served for five years within the submarine service, and would then have to go through a gruelling course based on the training of Soviet cosmonauts. The list of individuals killed in the 2019 fire which broke out on the GUGI deep-diving submarine Losharik - all officers - suggests the force remains a highly specialised one."

Source: rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/stalking-seabed-how-russia-targets-critical-undersea-infrastructure

Given it comes from the UK's foremost think tank, I hope people will treat it as a credible source.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]


They're sending bathyscaphes and ROV's down to study the layout of the cables.

They're from GUGI (Main Directorate of Deep Sea Research).

This is the most secretive defense agency in Russia. Practically nothing is known about their work, but it's known that multiple new ships are laid down for them annually.

I read somewhere, that GUGI divers are more rare than cosmonauts - in absolute numbers.

They are at the pinnacle of their science. American deep sea mariners have a healthy respect for their work.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Directorate_of_Deep-Sea_Research?wprov=sfti1#

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 26 [122]


There's nothing to "guard" against - if you believe the press. If they want to do something with the cables, there's very little that can prevent it.

Every summer, Russian and NATO ships shadow each other back and forth over the North Atlantic.

Sometimes, a Russian research ship will seemingly hover over the same spot for days or even weeks.

NATO officials claim, that the ships are sending down Remotely Operated Vehicles to plant "snooping" devices and explosives on the cables.

So in theory - on some "Day X", those charges should go off without any submarines having to be in the vicinity.

-//-

Have many technical questions about this which make me curious...

How are the listening devices powered? Do they have some passive radioactive source of power? Do they "parasitize" power from the cable somehow?

How is the signal to "explode" communicated to the explosive devices? How can a signal reach 4-5 kilometers deep underwater, in a reliable way?

Can American ROVs descend to the same location, after a Russian one left, and simple remove the "bad" devices? I imagine it's like looking for a needle in a haystack.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1150]


What?

Everybody that writes about this potential war, lays out roughly the same scenario:

1) Cutting of subsea cables

2) Disabling of satellites in near Earth orbit

3) Cyber attacks on key infrastructure

4) Kinetic strikes on forward basing areas

The world economy, and the world's stock markets - would collapse on Day 2 of this war.

Don't think you can predict so easily what shape it will take. It will likely be unlike any war in our history as a species.