Australia / Polish Tutoring Options in Melbourne [77]

hi davidpeake!

I'm in the melbourne CBD. Near melbourne central. Where abouts are your friends situated?

Australia / Polish Tutoring Options in Melbourne [77]

cool. thanks for that! :)

Australia / Polish Tutoring Options in Melbourne [77]

hmmm.. maybe there are some cd's i can get for my car! :P

Australia / Polish Tutoring Options in Melbourne [77]

Syrena,

have you got your cd's yet? would be interested to see if they are helpful.

Genealogy / What are common Polish character traits? [417]

I've found that polish people can be very warm and caring people. They will welcome you into their homes and lives. Apparently at Christmas dinner it is a tradition to leave a spare seat at the table in case a stranger knocks at your door... :S

Theres also a great sadness amongst polish people and i think most of the negative traits such as stubbornness, cynicism, complaining and moodiness comes from years of poor social and economic conditions and these days are probably more so passed on from the previous generations. I don't think any of these traits are necessarily genetic.

Parents can seem to be overwhelmingly controlling. And you have to remember that most parents of the younger generation have lived through some pretty harsh times. Poland might seem like the only place in the world that exists to some because it is only recently that poles have been able to freely travel to a lot of destinations whether it be from financial restrictions or travel restrictions.. so a large portion of the older generations have never even left Poland.

Real Estate / House prices in Poland to drop more or rise again? [228]

From what I understand (correct me if i'm wrong), poland has already blown their initial target for adopting the euro due to relative volatility of the zloty?

bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a6UusitJbqs4&refer =home

I would be hedging my bets on prices dropping more over the next 12 months. I'm not in poland now, but from what i can tell from talking to people and reading the news, people in poland are generally fairly optimistic. Whilst this is a good thing in some ways, i think at times like these a bit of pessimism can be healthy. Being prepared for the worst is better than thinking you are immune to this financial crisis.

When the rest of the world is cutting their rates, poland is keeping theirs high. I'm wondering what will happen when suddenly they start cutting them at 1% a month. What will happen to the relative value of the zloty against the swiss franc and all those people who have mortgages in chf? Potentially.. any drop in the value of real estate could be compounded by the currency difference.

Real Estate / House prices in Poland to drop more or rise again? [228]

I'm not trying to be all doom and gloom, but i guess the point i was trying to make is that it seems a large majority of polish are convinced that the crisis which is hitting their neighbours will mostly pass them by. Who knows.. I'm no economist.. it might.. but probably not.

Regardless, the men in charge should be rounding up the troops and getting the heavy artillery out to protect their borders in any way they can from the potential threat.

Back to the currency.. Adoption of the Euro will most certainly have a positive effect on real estate prices. Specifically from the POV of foreign investment from within the EU as this will eliminate any hesitation due to currency risk.

Real Estate / House prices in Poland to drop more or rise again? [228]

ash1972 - You see.. when you start making comparisons like that then you will begin to dig your own grave in this argument. I read somewhere that poland had the highest capital growth over any other part of Europe in the year of 2007. Krakow, doubled/tripled (i'm always a bit dubious about statistics) in as many years recently. There is 100% no doubt that this has been driven by pure investor speculation.. (some might say these are the fundamentals of a speculative bubble) I'm guessing you yourself bought these 2 properties in warsaw for the purpose of investment and based on stories of past/future capital growth in real estate in poland?

I have no doubt that in the long term (10 years) you will have a good investment on your hands. But right now you would have to have rocks in your head to buy real estate for investment purposes in poland unless you get an absolute bargain. The title of this thread demostrates the uncertainty of things at the moment. and you only have to read a couple of other threads here to know that there are people in trouble.

The developed world has seen some good times over the past decade, and there has been a lot of people with a lot of money and a great deal of optimism. It is a reality that this has all changed, at least for the moment.

Again.. I'm sorry if i sound all doom and gloom. But you can't avoid the facts. All you can do in times like these is to be extremely conservative with your money and investments and be prepared for whatever happens. Don't buy unless you get a bloody bargain.. and don't sell unless you really have to. If you are highly leveraged, then do whatever you can to pile money on to your loan (aim for being leveraged at about 65% or better).. if you borrowed in a differnt currency then talk to your bank to try and get your loan converted to zloty. Its not the end of the world.. it's just an economic downturn. Be sensible, hope for the best, but prepare for the worst and you will be right.

Real Estate / House prices in Poland to drop more or rise again? [228]

Ash - I don't disagree with you that the time to buy is when others are selling. It is in times like these that some people make their fortunes. But I would be waiting it out, at least till mid next year. It won't hurt to keep an eye out for opportunities, but if it were me i would be seeing where this all ends goes for a bit before committing to further debt. I noticed on another thread you mentioned you are considering selling one of your properties to minimize debt. Which I would think is more on the conservative than aggressive side of behaviour.. and a bit of a contradiction.

With regards to ratios between poles and foreigners owning investment properties i would think it would make more sense to look at the ratio between foreigners and poles who bought over the boom period when prices were driven up so dramatically. I don't have the answer to this..

Real Estate / House prices in Poland to drop more or rise again? [228]

I don't doubt your prediction for 2012. And yes.. a good strategy is essential. But a good strategy is one worth sticking to. And I guess I was just assuming that you had a longer term strategy in mind when you bought your investment properties in warsaw rather than sell one of them within 1 1/2 to 2 years to solve a cash flow problem.

Back to the topic of this forum "House prices in Poland to drop more or rise again?". Long term they will rise... short term they will drop. (my guess, not yet actual fact)

The point I am trying to make is that there are a lot of people feeling the pinch right now.. And I am just assuming you are included in this given your cash flow concerns.

I really have no idea what your situation is other than from the basic information you have posted on this forum. As I am sure you would agree.. you have to ask yourself why would someone be saying "now is the time to buy" when in fact they themselves are considering selling.

Real Estate / House prices in Poland to drop more or rise again? [228]

There seems to be a lot of people talking about a magic number (2012). I'm not sure if it is because of a football game or something to do with a Euro (not football) target? Is there any substance to this obsession with 2012?

Also, there is a lot of talk with people saying "polands economy is strong!" and "polands economy will continue to grow" without any reasoning as to why.

I'm just wondering what peoples thoughts are on why polands economy will grow? What happens when half or all of polands major export partners fail? What will happen when investors from other parts of europe start minimising their investments within poland to solve cash flow problems? What is going to happen to unemployment when there is a flood of poles returning from the UK because they can no longer find work over there only to find that there aren't really any jobs for them back home? What is it that will keep poland ticking along when the rest of europe is tumbling?

Real Estate / House prices in Poland to drop more or rise again? [228]


I don't think i've ever heard this before... Again,I don't see any backing for these predictions. How wil polands growth be internally driven?


A lot of what you are saying seems to be in order to justify your own personal investment decisions. The upper class of Warsaw or top 1% are not immue to any negative effects from a down turn. Investing in luxury properties in warsaw is not a get out of jail free card.

Theres an old saying.. "if you have nothing.. then you have nothing to lose".. the opposite goes for those who have. As we are seeing now in australia.. higher ends of the property market are probably the hardest hit with discounts of up to 30% in some of the most prestigious locations in australia. No-one is buying... and people who have had money in the boom time have invested heavily. Now they are losing money and are forced to scale down to reduce debt. This includes luxury real estate.

Before you start having a go at me for comparing apples with oranges.. I understand that Australia is not poland... But you have to stop thinking that poland is somehow different to the other economies of the world which are driven by capitalism. Also.. just because poland has a long way to go with its public infrastructure doesn't mean this will automatically drive growth.

Real Estate / House prices in Poland to drop more or rise again? [228]

People buy shares with borrowed money all the time! its called a margin loan.
And property doesn't always go up.. do a google search for "japan lost decade".

Real Estate / House prices in Poland to drop more or rise again? [228]


I guess the same could be said for those who AREN'T in the market talking things down.

The recent boom seems to have created a harsh reality for a large number of pols.

I was talking to a polish friend last night. She is a qualified psychologist and said she earns 1050zl a month and that any hope of her owning even a small flat is non existant. This seems to be a common story.

Property prices and incomes seem to be disproportionate. This makes me wonder how much of the boom was driven by foreign money, whether it be from pols who have gone to work abroad or the brits and irish looking for an "emerging economy" to get a faster growth on their investments.

Travel / Hard Candy - Krakow, Poland - reviews? [131]


ahh sorry i mean't .33lt
A small glass. :)

have fun at HC MG
let us know what you think

Travel / Hard Candy - Krakow, Poland - reviews? [131]


well no actually.. one of the people i was there with stupidly ordered a drink. The rest of us just sat there waiting for them to finish and were given the hard word to order drinks or leave.