News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]


Indeed. And I'll be there if it happens.


Elements of PiS have already been making it very clear that they regard such demonstrations as being unlawful and that they should be stopped. Quite scary that they support PRL-type solutions, isn't it?

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]

No-one is buying it. Even the core PiS support is dropping away, which is fantastic.

In other news, did anyone notice that Kukiz's political grouping is already breaking up? The Ruch Narodowy lot are breaking away from Kukiz, as he isn't doing what they expect him to do.

News / Throwing away the constitution in Poland? [626]


Thing is, if PiS had merely protested against the 2 extra judges (and the TK would inevitably have ruled that it was illegal) and completely ignored it otherwise, PO would've been in a terrible position. It's astounding how PiS managed to put people on the streets so quickly - when all they had to do was to say "fine", and if their real target was the TK, it wouldn't have been difficult to introduce some laws to bait the TK with - every law deemed unconstitutional could be used as a "look, PO are using their judges against us" victim-complex type attack. Would've worked fine, and PiS could have gotten on with their policies.


Indeed. It's all about the fact that PiS obviously want to introduce laws that will be very much unconstitutional.

News / Throwing away the constitution in Poland? [626]

Why didn't PiS just leave the TK alone, or merely protest over the 2 illegally appointed judges?

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]

I wonder if it's an offence to compare someone to a Nazi.

Harry, any idea?

Polonius abusing Petru is no surprise, though.

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]

Quite astonishing really for a government to lose what, around 25% of their support in just over a month?


I'm waiting for them to attempt to ban the marches next. They're already talking online about doing so, and I absolutely hope they try.

News / Throwing away the constitution in Poland? [626]


You mean PiS and their attempts to override the Constitution so they can do what they want? Yes, agreed.


No-one is protesting about the results. Do stop reading the right wing media, it's not good for you.


It's not a lie. Look at the fall in the WIG20, look at the fall in exchange rates, look at all the extra taxes... PiS are very much destroying the country.


No, they really wouldn't. It's the Constitutional Tribunal, so it will analyse laws on their constitutionality and not on their sensibility. No-one is going to rule giving 500zł to parents is unconstitutional.


Of course you think we are. That's why it's so easy to take PiS apart piece by piece.

News / Throwing away the constitution in Poland? [626]

Thing is, we all know that the PiS judges will do absolutely nothing but rule in accordance with what PiS want.

Anyway, to the streets.

News / Throwing away the constitution in Poland? [626]

2 now legally, plus 4 more to come during this Sejm. 6 nominations gives them a blocking vote on the TK, ensuring that they can introduce any anti-democratic legislation they want.

Do you really think we're stupid? This new law is junk designed to confuse voters - who aren't buying it.

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]

I see Greggy's spent most of today trying to deflect from the news...

Latest poll from IBRIS -

30.9% Nowoczesna.
27.3% PiS
14.4% PO
7.9% Kukiz
5.6% PSL
5.3% ZL
3.9% Korwin
1.6% Razem

PiS are now below the 30% mark that normally turns out for PiS regardless. It's pretty clear that PiS are on a downwards trend, and with more demonstrations planned all over Poland for this weekend, one has to wonder how long it will be before they back off from the anti-democratic policies

News / Throwing away the constitution in Poland? [626]


Isn't it pretty obvious that requiring 2/3rds majority to rule on anything ensures that PiS have a blocking veto on the TK?

PiS are so crude politically that it's very, very easy to see through their plans.


March? You mean marches - KOD are now openly calling for demonstrations everywhere.

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]

Optimistic, aren't you?

Problem is, I saw the protests personally in Poznań and got reports from elsewhere, and there are a lot of older people who aren't "Facebook kids" that are very, very angry. They aren't scared of PiS, nor will they give up easily.

Don't worry Grezgorz. We promise not to go after you when PiS inevitably self-explode after Duda resigns.

News / Throwing away the constitution in Poland? [626]


Very, very crude populism right there.

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]


All of the taxation/social measures are absolutely not against it. The only thing is that they might be pulled up on breaking the 60% debt limit, so the TK would prevent them from preparing a budget which shows that. It's just the usual excuse by PiS for not fufilling promises - they always blame everyone else for their problems.

But most importantly, the TK will stop any attempts by PiS to introduce undemocratic laws against people. They want revenge, and the TK is the only thing standing between them and revenge.

What's remarkable is that PiS supporters are absolutely adamant that the TK is partisan. Doesn't it say something about their own party if they can't even follow the Constitution?


You're showing us a video from street level. Where's the aerial footage that can be collaborated with Google Maps to show the size of the crowd?

News / Throwing away the constitution in Poland? [626]


Look at the high level of intellectual discourse from a PiS supporter. It's the kind of thing that puts fear into anyone that didn't finish primary school, like PiS supporters.

News / Throwing away the constitution in Poland? [626]

As is becoming usual, PiS are announcing things late at night and steaming ahead the very next day with their plans. Now we see that they plan to introduce legislation for the Constitutional Tribunal tomorrow morning - and it was announced tonight. This is just making a mockery of democracy and shows the real intention to take over everything by any means necessary.

Enough is enough. People will be on the streets this weekend. Again.

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]

The problem is that PiS drew attention to themselves with the TK mess. Had they left it alone, it's very difficult to see how the TK could have stopped the bank tax, 500zł per child or lower retirement ages. In fact, the TK would have been thoroughly discredited had they attempted to stop any of those policies and PO would've been left looking useless.

This is just the old PiS way of doing things - blaming everyone but themselves. A well-run government would have focused on PR-friendly policies in the first 100 days and avoided getting involved in any scandals.

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]

Of course they don't. If they did, they wouldn't vote for political parties, because it's obvious that they cannot keep a lot of their promises.

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]

My biggest fear is that if we don't see some common sense soon (and it has to come from Duda!) - we're going to end up with a "battle of laws". There was something similar in the dying days of the USSR and Yugoslavia - the central government was passing one set of laws, while the individual republics were ignoring those laws and doing their own thing. In this case, we could see the individual provinces refusing to implement laws - or implementing them in a completely different way to what is intended. There's already significant opposition to some of the centralisation efforts of PiS - this could easily become a battleground in future.

As well, the way that the Polish tax system is set up means that the individual tax offices receive quite a lot of income. What would happen if - for example - Wielkopolska held back the tax revenue and refused to transfer it to Warsaw? This would cause complete carnage.

War isn't possible (NATO would never agree to let the government put tanks on the streets), but PiS need a crash course on sensitivity. It's just too much, too fast for the electorate.

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]

Of course, of course. Any excuse.

Still waiting for your aerial pictures of the PiS march on Sunday, by the way.

Polonius - on that website I gave you, I also found this - ewybory.eu/sondaze/ - the current trend (ignoring actual numbers) seems to be that PiS are level with PO/Nowoczesna combined. Society is very much split down the middle at the minute.

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]

Another threat from Ironside?

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]

Latest news : Szydło has said that she'll publish the TK rulings. Probably the fall in support for PiS and the utter erosion of Duda's credibility has something to do with it.

Could be a game, could be genuine. Hard to tell, and I wouldn't believe a word she says until it's actually published. More importantly, PiS appear to be up to some tricks involving the TK, so this isn't over.

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]

The real question now - if protests grow and grow in size, what will PiS do next? They're already attempting to bring in "anti-terror" legislation that seems aimed more at dealing with domestic problems than foreign terrorism.

Personally, I hope for the army on the streets. At least then, Kaczyński would be finished.

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]

See, Ironside, again - you're not addressing the topic at all, but rather trying to derail it.

The poll results are clear - Poles are annoyed with PiS and blame them for the problems with the TK.

Fortunately, opposition numbers are swelling.

News / Nazi gold train 'found in Poland' [90]


Smart money now is it being a very sophisticated publicity stunt by Wałbrzych.

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]


Another fine example of insults when things don't go the way of PiS.


Quite impressive, really. But what makes things even worse for them is that they're being blamed by the electorate for this mess - their attempts to blame PO have failed miserably. Duda's reputation is in tatters, and street protests are likely to focus on him. The centrist voters are annoyed, and there are some interesting KOD plans to reach more and more people.

(awaiting predictable insults about KOD)

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]

PiS are in trouble according to the opinion polls. Their support is dropping like a stone - the latest TNS poll shows...

PiS - 27%
Nowoczesna - 24%
PO - 16%
Kukiz - 12%
ZL - 6%
Razem - 4%
PSL - 4%

wyborcza.pl/1,75478,19345912,sondaz-tns-dla-wyborczej-nie-ma-zgody-na-taka-demokracje.html

Can Duda survive?

On the flip side, Kukiz appears to have adopted the 2006 PO strategy of doing absolutely nothing.

News / Throwing away the constitution in Poland? [626]


The problem is that it requires immense amount of capital. This is Putinism, but the problem is that the country has to spend huge amounts to get there. I quite like what Orlen and PZU have been doing - they've been trying to buy up companies in smaller surrounding countries to create regional powers. It seems to be effective so far.


Most of the strategically important companies are like that - for example, PKO Bank Polski, PGNiG, PGE, PZU and so on. It's not a bad way of doing things. In some cases, privatisations are to try and allow further development - for instance, PKP Cargo and PKP Intercity should be privatised so that PKP PLK (who operate the railway lines) can get on with the job of looking after and developing the infrastructure while not having to worry about the interests of sister companies.

The problem is that PiS will really hurt PKO and PZU with the bank tax - this is money that they could be using to expand further (both of them had plans to buy up a lot of the smaller foreign-owned banks here) - but instead, the money goes to the government. Ideally - you want to encourage Polish business by the government retaining a minority share while using the best practices from the private world.

News / Poland's post-election political scene [4080]


Agreed. No need for a referendum, nor is there any dispute over the results. The electoral system is a bit flawed, but all parties play by the same rules and fair is fair.


Wise words. Duda in particular is looking particularly shameful - three university law departments have now came out against him, which is remarkable.


I would quite like to see where a Duda-Szydło combination would go without Kaczyński and the other ghosts. But this is about power, and Kaczyński is not going to give up the power now that he's finally got it in his hands.

If he genuinely cared about Poland, he would see that it's time to let this new generation be themselves.

News / Throwing away the constitution in Poland? [626]

The złoty is certainly in the toilet - 1EUR = 4.37zł now.

What was that about "a strong Poland" that Polonius kept going on about?


I'm all for it. I'll even start a business like that if PiS will support it. Unfortunately, PiS are somewhat suspicious towards private entrepreneurs, and what funds are available will almost certainly be directed towards big heavy industries.

Don't get me wrong Polonius, if PiS focused heavily on small entrepreneurs and provided them with the support needed (first 5 employees have ZUS paid by the state, percentage based contributions rather than fixed rate ones, minimal accounting requirements (so that I could do it myself) and so on) - then they would do very well indeed.