News / How will Poland be affected by WW3 which has now started [559]


There are a lot of things to complain about Scholz, but he can hardly be said to have made empty promises or raised false hopes regarding Ukraine. At the beginning many critics said that he was too pessimistic when he said that Ukraine must not lose and Russia must not win, instead of speaking of an outright victory. Scholz may have had a better grasp at the limits of Ukrainian capabilities and the the willingness to help from other countries. Scholz started slow, but has steadily ramped up help, with Germany now becoming the largest European supporter of Ukraine and pledging the most support for 2024.

Contrast that with all the great promises of various leaders at the beginning and later. I remember e.g. how Finish leaders initially said that they would be open to deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Then they said that they could only do so after joining NATO. They did, still no Leopards.

And then there is Poland. All the pledges of brotherhood with Ukraine, only to stop sending new weapons mid-war and even obstructing other deliveries by Polish farmers.

Only France has shown a larger discrepancy between words and deeds.

News / How will Poland be affected by WW3 which has now started [559]


Indeed. Most European countries if given the choice have picked German tanks and anti-aircraft systems since the war in Ukraine broke out. Particulary the Iris-T system is shaping up to become a real export hit.


We shall see. Hopefully Poland won't just resort to verbal grand-standing if war breaks out. Will be interesting to see if the new Polish government recommits to aiding Ukraine.

News / How will Poland be affected by WW3 which has now started [559]


That is unrelated to the promise of stationing troops there. Germany is now selling military equipment to many European countries.


Realistically, Ilif Poland can not be motivated to defend its' neighbour, other countries won't send additional troops either.

News / How will Poland be affected by WW3 which has now started [559]

@Novichok


I mentioned 800k soldiers because that is plausible estimate of the number of Russian soldiers involved in the invasion of Ukraine.

@Ironside


All that is required from Lithuania is to prepare appropiate barracks and other facilities which can be used to house the soldiers. That is hardly "cashing in", those facilities still belong to the Lithuanian state and may one day be used again for a different purpose.

If Russia invades the Baltic states, all NATO countries will be required to defend them. It is not possible to station enough troops there to succesfully defend against a Russian invasion since the countries are simply too small.

And I strongly suspect that Poland may want to make a large effort to defend them, if only because it is better to fight Russia in a different country than your own.

News / How will Poland be affected by WW3 which has now started [559]


Poland, the Baltics and Finnland are now frontline states in a confrontation with Russia, and NATO doctrine has always assigned those states the task to field a large part of the conventional forces with other countries sending a few additional divisions. I seem to recall that Western European countries have agreed to field 8 combat ready divisions by 2030. If Russia invades Poland with say 800k soldiers, then the latter will have to equalize the difference in numbers.


Roles have just changed. Germany can now play the part of France and the UK during the Cold War while our Eastern Neighbours will serve as first line of defence. Who knows, if Kaliningrad and Belarus become independent one day, then Poland might switch roles as well.


That and other stuff like modern air-defence-systems. But that is relevant how?

News / How will Poland be affected by WW3 which has now started [559]

I doubt any of the Western European countries will resort to mass conscription. As it is their armies struggle already to equip the soldiers they have and fighting a full-scale war won't be very popular to begin with. They'll end up sending a few divisions (which is the current NATO planning) and a disproportionate amount of high-tech weapons and defense systems, but Poland and the Baltics need to be prepared to shoulder at least 50% of the required man power.

Off-Topic / The Pope has officially approved the blessing of same-sex couples [60]

About damn time.

News / Ups and downs of the democratic government 2023-2027 in Poland [363]


Sadly, most of the world only respects sovereignity of countries can defend them. That is what Ukraine was forced to learn. Hence they are willing to sacrifice part of their sovereignity by joining the EU because it will help them defend the rest.


I dont worry, just pointing out what is most likely going to happen. If the UK does not rejoin the EU, they'll likely lose controle over the Falklands this century. You won't have the power projection to defend it on your own 30+ years and there are plenty of countries just waiting for payback time.


It made you poorer, and much less influential down the line. What a great success story. Even your crown jewel the London stock exchange is slowly bleeding away. Not just to other European cities, but other parts of the world away.


Again with this Brexit nonsense. Nobody hates you for leaving, at worst we pity you. But you are not going to keep the privileges of staying in the EU after leaving.


Again, it would be helpful to read up on European history and not the warped Brexiteer bersion. The people who founded the EU did it with the fresh experience of having survived the Nazi Empire and in the hopes that doing so would allow its' member states to not be swallowed up by the Soviet Empire.

News / Ups and downs of the democratic government 2023-2027 in Poland [363]

@jon357


It doesnt though. The invasiom of Ukraine has shown how inefficient the current status is. We need greater coherence in our foreign policy so that a wannabe dictator who gets bribed by Mmoscow and Beijing does not paralyze it. And while we might be on the path towards an European army, those steps need to be accelerated. Otherwise we won't be able to defend ourselves. It is eventually all a matter of size. Modern combat systems become more and more expensive. We can see this process already. Smaller countries can barely afford their own air force. Even the great European powers find it difficult to maintain a single aircraft carrier. Many small, if wealthy entities end up dominated by larger, hostile powers. We saw this happen many times in history.

In 20 years, none of the European countries will still qualify as great powers, their place taken by other, much larger countries. That is inevitable. India, Brazil and other countries don't care much for our concerns while we are still relatively wealthy and powerful. One can only guess how they'll behave once the tables fully turn. The response of the parts of the world that will shape the future to the Ukrainian war and Gaza really should put any illusions to rest.

Another indication is the Falkland question. Historically legally (and morally) they are part of the UK. But the anticolonialist view (when directed against Europe) is getting stronger stronger, as are those countries supporting it. In 20 years the Uk on its' own will be a medium size power, trying to defend the Falklands against Argentina that may count on the support of South America, China and other powers, each power being wealthier and more powerful than the UK. I am always surprised that developments like this are ignored by Brexiteers. Than again, their "vision" of "Global Britain" would not work otherwise.


Yeah sure. It has been a success in the sense that the UK manged to leave the EU, but otherwise... .

News / Ups and downs of the democratic government 2023-2027 in Poland [363]


The vision behind is. Being able to live and work everywhere on the continent, helping and defending each other. Pooling our ressources together and staying at the forefront of human advancement. It is our best and likely only chance to retain Europe's prosperity, influence and peace.


And may return, once the Brexiteer generation is gone. Who knows, maybe London will become part of the European family again at the same time as Ukraine.

News / Ups and downs of the democratic government 2023-2027 in Poland [363]


Hardly. The idea itself is so wonderful that it will persist. And all dreaming aside, it is entirely possible that the EU will be a big winner of Russia's invasion of Ukraine since it reminded people what is at stake, and what the EU can offer. If the USA ends up abandoning Ukraine either now or in 1 year, for which I'd say there is a 50/50 chance, then the EU would become Ukraine's last hope.

News / Grzegorz Braun extinguishes Hanukkah candles in Polish Parliament [459]

Has the man already been expelled from this party?

News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]


We do, hence the border controls at the border with Austria.


That is what they claim, but the reality seems to be quite different. They sold visas to Africans and the increase of illegal border crossing suggests that they were quite happy to wave people through. Never mind how people smuggler could apparantly act with impunity.

News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]

@jon357


Which news report do you mean? All I've read reported a drop of illegal border crossings by 50% and more than a hundred additional arrest of people smugglers. Naturally the police union is against such measures since they put further strain of the police, but their desired solution (letting other countries controle the European borders) is clearly not working.

The results have been unambigous, that even the politicians who were strongly opposed to controls have since then admitted their error.

News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]


Many said similar things before those controls were introduced, but they turned out highly effective. There has been a 50% decrease in illegal border crossings ever since and more than 100 smugglers have been arrested.

News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]

Hopefully the new Polish government will introduce measures that make those border controls no longer necessary.

News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]

@Mr Grunwald


Personally I am against abortions in most cases. It seems morally wrong to abort a healthy baby just because it does not fit into your life planning (unless it is the result of rape or endangers the life of the mother). But I can not deny the negative consequences of strict anti-abortion laws in practice.

News / Abortion still under control in Poland [2986]

Who knows. What we do know is that the law has a negative effects on the birth rate in Poland.

notesfrompoland.com/2023/10/26/annual-number-of-births-falls-11-in-poland-marking-first-double-digit-decline/

News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]

Yet another reason why Poland will benefit from a new government: The draconian abortion laws implemented by PiS had most likely an averse effect on the (already terrible) demographic future of Poland. Repealing them might help undo some of the damage.

Annual number of births falls 11% in Poland, marking first double-digit decline

notesfrompoland.com/2023/10/26/annual-number-of-births-falls-11-in-poland-marking-first-double-digit-decline/

History / What do Poles owe to Hungarians? [275]

@mafketis


I have read claims that they tried, just more discreetly. Apparantly election districts were not updated to the changing population allocation, which meant that urban areas have fewer MPs relative to the size of their population. They put lots of election booths in villages but fewer in cities. They made it more difficult for the Polish diaspora to vote. Given that and more, it is incredible that the opposition managed to win this election.

News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [669]

Just amazing how fast the PiS government manages to evaporate all the goodwill accumulated in the last 20 month.

News / Poles say a big YES to our European Union [996]


The EU is not the obstacle. The UK left the EU yet has not managed to come up with a working solution beyond letting the EU handle this and a Ruanda scheme that the UK courts seem to have serious issues with. The obstacle is dealing with the refugees while adhering to the standards of rule of law that defines our civilization.


Simple. Create a data base where all refugees are registered and make sure that they can only claim benefits in the country they are allocated to.

News / Poles say a big YES to our European Union [996]


It is if you want to live up to the standards of your civilization. Just because Australia has decided to compromise their principles should not mean we do so as well.

Europe could easily absorb a few million refugees per year if we distribute them properly amongst the member states. Once every country takes in their fair share, this crisis will cease to be a problem.

News / Poles say a big YES to our European Union [996]


You forgot subsidiary protection which makes up most of the asylum applications and is also enshrined in European law.


That has been proposed for many years now, but the practical obstacles are nearly unsolvable. Either the African countries do not want to host them, and those who might want to (e.g. Libya) can not trusted to guarantee proper conditions.

News / Unfulfilled promises by PiS [559]

I won't envy Tusk if he should manage to win the election. The challenges to Poland's economic prosperity are daunting. The demographic decline will soon become visible, and the follies of PiS will reduce his options even more.

News / Will PiS be happy if AfD wins elections in Germany? [1303]


Because the US has a presidential system and the UK, Germany have a parliamentary system.

History / Enemies, Strangers, Friends. Poles and Germans. [82]

@Ironside


And this impression is based on what exactly?


You mean when Germany bailed out Greece after it turned out that the Greeks had falsified their accounts and spent the money on vanity projects like the Olympics and generous welfare programs? At a time when e.g. the Baltic states were in favour of throwing Greece to the wolves? Yeah, that was really ruthless... .


Let us be real here. If Kiev had fallen in a couple of days, everyone would have gone back to buisness. No one would have wanted to sabotage their economy for a lost cause. Poland might have intensified their attempts to diversify their energy supply, but they would nevertheless continued to receive Russian energy for a few more years at least.

@jon357


How do you measure that? If I look at how trade has developed between those countries, I'd hardly find that justifiable.

Poland exported more to Germany in 2021 than vice versa.

oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/pol/partner/deu#:~:text=1995-,In%202021%2C%20Poland%20exported%20%2489.4B%20to%20Germany.,and%20Seats%20(%242.31B).

Cut down on your quotes please

History / Enemies, Strangers, Friends. Poles and Germans. [82]


Well, one could argue that the views on Russia differed, but the actual policies not as much, particulary when it came to buying Russian fossil fuels. Poland was smart enough to diversify its' ressource in the long run, but faced the same problems being cut off from Russian supplies. Both countries had the same aim in their approach towards Russia: To preserve the European peace order. Poland had the better understanding of Russia which is something German politicians need to learn from.

And Russia has now been identified as the main threat in the new national security strategy, so there is certainly a lot in common in the future.

History / Enemies, Strangers, Friends. Poles and Germans. [82]

Both countries want to live in peace in prosperity, dont want war in Europe and want to increase trade with each other. Both countries are crucial members of EU and NATO and have identified Russia's Putin as the main threat to their security. Successive governments are most likely to follow those lines.

History / Enemies, Strangers, Friends. Poles and Germans. [82]


Indeed. Leaving aside that this means that neither country is pursuing long-term goals that are detrimental to each other, it also means that both desire the same things on many issues. Which allows for greater economic dependence and cooperation on key issues like the Ukraine war.