News / Presidential elections 2025 - the race has commenced!!! [665]


I would argue with you, but the existence of Duda gives me pause. Perhaps there is something to it...


Yes, reintroduce the Roman consular system.

The Poles can then abandon the Gregorian calendar, and use the Roman Republican style:

Anno urbis conditae MMMDCCLXXVIII, in consulatu Dudae et Tusci.

alternatively:

Sub auspiciis magni Dudae et senex Tuscius, duumvirorum periculosissimae rei publicae Poloniae, anno sacratissimo MMXXV.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


Shhh... don't tell the Poles, but a large percentage of Russians receive their US visas in Warsaw.

The US embassy in Poland even maintains a page in Russian, aimed at providing guidance for applicants.

Source: pl.usembassy.gov/pl/visas-pl/nonimmigrant-visas-pl/foreigners-rus/

The General Consulate in Krakow has only English and Polish speaking staff, but the Embassy in Warsaw has Russian speakers (according to the page above).

Warsaw processes more visas for Russians, than Astana (Kazakhstan) or Tbilisi (Georgia).

News / Presidential elections 2025 - the race has commenced!!! [665]


Well... in Romania some kind of alien reptiloid mathematician won the presidential election. The guy even took first place at a Math Olympiad.

He has the charisma of a turnip, and is - I'm quite sure - autistic. Nonetheless, he beat the Pro-Russian, former hooligan, and ultra orthodox candidate that replaced the one that was banned.

What killed the chances of our pro-Russian gangster, was the moment when he actually opened his mouth at a televised debate... and everybody quickly realized he may be retarded. This was a big mistake, letting him out in front of cameras, but oh well!

What gives me more hope with Nawrocki is that he is not quite as retarded. After all, a retard cannot become head of the Institute of National Remembrance. He seems to be able to string a sentence together, and is able to look somewhat "presidential". Perhaps this might be just enough for the voters tired of Tusk and Co.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


Thank you for this. I don't know where CMS gets his news.

People in Russia that cannot leave the country or require permission to do so:

1) Persons with access to state secrets. Depending on the level of secrecy, you are restricted from leaving for either 5 or 10 years from the moment you had viewed the secret document.

2) People who had received a military summons.

3) People under criminal investigation.

4) People against whom there is a court order restricting travel.

5) Persons that had provided false information on travel documents.

6) Persons that work at FSB

7) Bankrupt persons

8) Persons below the age of 18.

News / Presidential elections 2025 - the race has commenced!!! [665]

Why I am interested in the figure of Pan Nawrocki, is because Ukrainians have been ******** their pants at the possibility he may be elected.

He's more "famous" than a typical Polish presidential candidate, because Ukrainians have been seeing his face a lot due to his role as head of the Institute of National Remembrance. There, his hardline position on the exhumations irritated many Ukrainians. Almost nobody expected that this same person might become President of Poland.

His nomination by PiS seems like a direct attack on Ukraine - given that (from a Ukrainian perspective) - this man is known most for his outspoken views on Ukraine and little else.

News / Presidential elections 2025 - the race has commenced!!! [665]


When I first read this... I thought - surely Kania is exaggerating. And I was right!

Let's look at what Onet writes on the subject:

"Nasi rozmówcy opowiadają, że cena spotkania z prostytutką na Odlotach wynosiła w tamtym czasie średnio 100-150 zł, a maksymalnie 200 zł. Ochrona hotelu dyktowała gościom znacznie wyższe ceny - wszystko ponad tę wspomnianą kwotę było zyskiem ochroniarzy, którzy byli w układzie z sutenerem."

What we have here, ladies and gentlemen, is called not pimping but arbitrage. Pan Nawrocki identified an inefficiency within the system - namely that prostitutes were selling themselves on Odloty.pl for prices smaller than the patrons of the Grand Hotel were willing to pay. This is the behavior of a shrewd capitalist, and reflects well on a future president.

-------

Further - Kania has characterized this man as a gangster, forming in my mind an impression of a thuggish man, with low intellectual capacity.

Somehow, Kania forgot to mention that Nawrocki was a student of history at the University of Gdansk, and the members of his "pimping gang" were also history students. As a history student myself, I find it deeply upsetting that Kania failed to consider that they may have had other motives than mere monetary gain. As an engineer - this is of course difficult for him to understand.

------

Finally - Kania should stop being embarrassed for Poland.

Israel had a president that raped ten women. Moshe Katsav.

Our President, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, has even remarked on this curious fact:

As Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert met with the Russian leader in an ornate reception room in the Kremlin on Wednesday, reporters overheard Putin tell him: "Say hello to your president. He really surprised us."

The microphones were then cut off, but a member of the Israeli delegation told The Associated Press that Putin went on to say of Katsav: "I met him. He didn't look like a guy who could be with 10 women."

Source: nbcnews.com/news/amp/wbna15346129

News / Presidential elections 2025 - the race has commenced!!! [665]

Why is Twitter suddenly full of videos of a Polish presidential candidate putting chewing tobacco in his mouth?

Also, why is chewing tobacco illegal in Poland?

Finally - is this guy not able to spend an hour without nicotine - even if the stakes are the presidency of Poland?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


75% Russian - give or take.

Russia has a population almost 4 times as large as Ukraine's.

The loss ratio between the sides is rather close to 1:1.

For Ukraine to win this war over the long term, it has to kill at least 5 Russians for every dead Ukrainian.

So long as the ratio is below 5:1, Ukraine will be slowly losing this war.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


Indeed.

Even in 2035, demographers project Russia will have 20 million plus males aged 20-39.

That's half of Ukraine's modern pre-war population.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


Extrapolation from present dynamics. Wars never develop linearly. This is not a mathematical function.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]

Afghanistan lost 2 million dead, while we lost approximately 50,000 men. We were trying to help them lead a more dignified life. Thanks to the CIA and Pakistani ISI - our mission was a failure.

We beat the Finns twice. In 1940, and then together with their buddy Hitler. Hard to call the terms of the peace deal a "victory".

We literally erased Prussia from the f*cking map. We gave most of it to the Poles - massive trolling. But we took the heart of Prussia for ourselves, and today called Kaliningrad. Prussia does not exist - because of Russia.

Japanese signed the peace treaty not because of two atom bombs - but a pending Soviet invasion from Sakhalin into Hokkaido.

Poles. Really? Seriously?

Who? Where? What?

Georgia ate sh*t. Syria - we conquered until we were called to other more pressing work. Chechnya - total submission.

If you look at all of Russian military history, it's only behind France and Britain in "winningness". More battles fought, over more centuries, and won - than anybody else - except those two countries.

Russia did not become the largest country in the world by losing a lot of wars.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


You wouldn't dare fire a missile at us.

You would keep it conventional.

In conventional terms we will wipe the floor with your army - which is 15% of Ukraine's in terms of personnel.

There is no army in Europe that is even close to the level of the Ukrainian military in capabilities and size. Only the Russian army - which is far superior.

This should tell you about your position on the totem pole.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


Funny - very funny - but you know I'm right.

Your populations are soft as sh*t.

I have read numerous reports from Western Europe, where they admit than any Western army that experienced Ukraine's difficulties would long since have collapsed and surrendered.

Our only mistake was attacking someone as tough as us, instead of you.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


Why not cite people.com or Women's Health?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


When I listen to Poles about civilizational collapse - please cart me over to the nearest psychiatric ward.

Russia does not collapse. It bends, it deforms, but it never collapses.

We'll outlast the lot of you. The Solar System and the Milky Way galaxy will be Russian.

Start learning Russian.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


Good.

We should make a careful tabulation of everyone that expressed joy over our moments of weakness during the past three years.

Find them, even while they are sh*tting - and waste them. As the Fuhrer has promised.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


Bobko could have told you as much.

Thanks, Mr. Cronkite.

Next stop - Trump will be put in his place by China. He wants accommodation? He thinks the extremely high tariffs are not "in the interests of either party"? He thinks things went "a little too far"?

His secretary says "We were not seeking a decoupling from China"?

What if China says - "you know what? Unpleasant taste left in the mouth"? Makes you bend over backwards and suck your own penis before they talk to you?

What will you do then? Accommodate China or start World War 3?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


You've been behaving very strangely my friend.

Not worried that you will be counted amongst the Russians?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


You are ready to be a Russian.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


America is a republic and not a democracy.

In a democracy, the people rule directly through majority rule.

In a republic, the people are the "source of power" - so they still have a claim to rule - but they exercise it through a constitution, and always through representatives.

In a democracy, the head of state can be a monarch. In a republic, a monarch can never be head of state.

In a democracy, it's possible for there to be no limits on power (what Trump wants). In a republic, there are always checks on power.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


You can't get government funding in China to go to the States to pursue those kind of degrees. Neither can you in Russia. It wasn't always the case, but pretty quickly the state had caught on that these people are useless to the country when they return.

--------

Another example for Grunnie, of "idea filtration":

Subject: Parliamentary Democracy

Desire: Legitimacy and stability through institutional continuity.

Danger: Parliamentary unpredictability and fragmentation among the elites

Adaptation: The State Duma exists, but the ruling party (United Russia) monopolizes power. The presidency is strong and enduring. Elections are held, but real opposition is blocked or domesticated.

Result: A decorative multiparty system masking centralized executive rule.

-------

Now that I have explained... I'm curious to hear what sort of ideas you wanted to offer us?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


You have a very caricaturist view on Russia, and the Russian state.

The Russian government - just like the Chinese government, has been borrowing ideas from the West in industrial quantities.

Simply... the ideas first go through a filtration (or quarantine) process. Unlike postcolonial societies that typically adopt Western structures wholesale, China and Russia have for centuries approached Western imports with suspicion and careful calculation.

The thinking process goes something like this:

1) Try to understand if the subject represents a desirable thing.

2) Identify the inherent dangers within.

3) Adapt it to local realities and your needs.

-----

I'll try to explain using two examples. Let's do Russia first... and use the example of state corporations.

Desire: Market tools to generate wealth and compete globally.

Danger: Independent capital centers and foreign penetration.

Adaptation: Giants like Rosneft and Rostec operate like corporations, but are run by regime loyalists. Market language is retained, but primary function is geopolitical leverage.

Result: A "sovereign capitalism" that mimics the forms of the West while still serving the state's interests.

----

Now China. It admires the West's education system, and wants to copy it. The thinking:

Desire: Innovation and skilled workforce.

Danger: Intellectual freedom.

Adaptation: STEM fields are emphasized; humanities are surveilled. Foreign degrees are prized-but returning students are watched.

Result: A meritocratic elite carefully surveilled and steeped in national values

Off-Topic / USA News and Poland - part 15 [944]


This matters just a little bit less than zero.

For many regulated entities in the United States that have to hold high quality collateral, or within any market framework where you are looking for something "bulletproof" - this asset type is often defined not through its credit rating, but it's actually literally called "Treasuries and other equivalents".

Under modern Basel III banking rules, US Treasuries are defined as Tier 1 assets and have a 0% risk weight. If you are talking about the repo markets, then... Treasuries are the backbone of collateral in secured lending, and counterparties accept them regardless of credit rating.

Big mutual funds and other such entities that have to maintain some kind of defined investment policy, within the legal language of their written policies specify: "U.S. Treasuries" or "obligations of the United States Government" - not "AAA-rated sovereigns."

Probably the most important fact to know - is that the Federal Reserve accepts Treasuries at face value for collateral and monetary operations, independent of ratings.

If the United States does not have a AAA rating, then nobody else's AAA rating makes any sense. On account the United States has never once defaulted on its debt, ever since the country was founded in the 1700s.

News / Grzegorz Braun extinguishes Hanukkah candles in Polish Parliament [425]


Despite calls for resignation, Szymczyk has since been promoted to Head of Ballistics Training, citing "lived experience" and "a strong spatial memory of projectile arcs in enclosed spaces."

I should incorporate Szymczyk into my PANSTWO book.

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News / Grzegorz Braun extinguishes Hanukkah candles in Polish Parliament [425]

Kania has a special talent for creating thread titles.

"Grzegorz Braun Extinguishes Hanukkah Candles in Polish Parliament" could be the title of a book.

Another good book would be:

"Chief of Police Gen. Jarosław Szymczyk Fires a Grenade Launcher In His Office".

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


Understand - not military aid, but direct budgetary support. You are paying the pensions of Ukraine's seniors, and the salaries of their teachers, cops, and doctors.

You are paying for subsidies, aimed at keeping electrical and gas prices affordable for the population.

Even now, in the midst of full on war, Zelensky is spending billions on roads and bridges (he gets a lot of sh*t for this). You are paying for this too.

None of this directly helps the front. It just keeps Ukraine afloat.

I think if the average cash-strapped European voter understood that he is not sending a Kalashnikov to Ukraine, but instead cash that ensures that Ukrainians continue to enjoy the cheapest electricity in Europe - he would not be happy.

European governments are doing a good job at keeping this information with a low profile.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]


Perhaps, but they may know something we do not. It doesn't appear that way, however.

I think what they "know", is that we have much more endurance than Ukraine. Ukraine after a few more years of war, will become a true failed state. No amount of reconstruction or European integration will reverse that decline.

This year their budget is in good shape, through almost $45 billion of direct budgetary support from allies. Next year there is already a forecast $15B deficit, and the year after it is triple (if European don't keep funding the budget directly).

I think this threat that "we can outlast you" - is a very effective one. The longer the war goes, the more non linear the front movements will be.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]

@Novichok

Am a bit confused by what Oliver wrote about Medinsky's words about Great Britain and France financing Russia during the Great Northern War.

Maybe he misunderstood something, but as far as I know this journalist speaks Russian and Ukrainian fluently.

Now it's Ukraine who is being financed by Great Britain and France, so I fail to see the logic in this argument. Doesn't that mean that Ukraine is in the position that Russia was when it beat the Swedes?

Also I can't believe Medinsky actually issued the threat that people sitting at the table will lose loved ones.

Seems like such a quiet and nerdy fellow... but then opens his mouth and it's Pinochet.

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News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]

Well, now it's clear why the negotiations ended after just two hours. Our Russian guys went "full Stalin" on the Ukrainians. Told them if you don't give up 4 regions now, next time it will be 6. Also told them we are ready to war forever.

Ollie Carrol, the Economist's Ukraine correspondent, reports:

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News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22 [980]

There are many arguments for why Ukraine won't "crumble", even without American aid. They are just... not very convincing.

Europe will need several more years, or even close to a decade, to arrive at a place where it can fully "close" Ukraine's demands.

To my mind, weapon stockpiles and intelligence sharing, is not nearly as important as what is happening within Ukrainian society. They are exhausted, they are eating each other, and eating the government. The population's patience with representatives of the territorial recruitment centers has reached zero. In most Ukrainian villages, it is impossible to find a military age male during daytime.

People are fed up with the inequalities that the war produces daily. The most popular refrain, is that they want to see all the cops, judges, recruiters, and every other sort of bureaucrat - sent to the front. People see that the sons of parliamentarians and millionaires do not serve, and have no issues travel into the Schengen Zone. People are tired of reading about corruption scandals with weapons procurement - where hundreds of thousands of defective shells are delivered to soldiers, who as a result are not able to reply to Russian fires.

I think Zelensky feels this, as a politician. His maximalist position of "no talks until a final victory" just doesn't fly anymore. People want peace, but a just peace. Giving up territory that they had not lost - that's not seen as just, but rather like a Russian bluff. It's the job of the Russian military then, to show them that this is the inevitable destination to which this train is headed.