News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]

@Bratwurst Boy

Believe me, Putin wants to start working with Germany almost more than anything else.

Putin is a huge Germanophile.

He's given half his life to Germany. He sent his kids to Germany. He is the Godfather of Schroeder's child. He's the only world leader, other than the leader of Germany, that speaks native level German (Austrian and Swiss heads of state are not "world leaders").

Worry not - Russia will never touch you.

Off-Topic / Stock Market Talk and Trading - part 2 [732]

@Novichok

It's hard for me to watch you and CMS argue!!!

You guys are not necessarily contradicting each other.

But here's a question for you Rich. Do the same mechanisms you described, apply when it happens in a country that is dependent on the USD, rather than an own currency which they could print?

I suppose that you would argue - in this instance - that said country is simply "importing" American inflation.

But that opens up a bunch more questions? Can you really put more water in the lake, to make boats rise, when the lake is an actual ocean as it is in America's case?

America has to print money not just for itself, but the world. When America doesn't print enough, and the dollar starts becoming very strong - imports from the rest of the world pour in, and American investment goes out. When America prints too much, and the dollar becomes weak, this favors American exports, and the investment flows reverse and money begins to flow into America from places like Europe and Japan.

Printing too much dollars is bad for the average American, but it could be beneficial to the American economy as a whole.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]


To be honest I don't understand what you want from me.

Do you think that Iraq should say "Spasibo" to America for destroying their country and gifting them an Islamic terrorist threat?

Probably not.

Do you think Libya should say "Spasibo" to NATO, for turning the country into a lawless hellhole?

I don't think so.

Any war is hell. The problem is Jon here going around calling us the "worst invaders in Earth". Just trying to bring him back to reality and at least look in the mirror once.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]


The average Ukrainian refugee left the completely unmolested town of Lviv to pursue a better life abroad.

Most Ukrainians read about the war from the news, just like you. Probably 95% have never seen a Russian soldier once.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]


Hyperbolizing a bit there, Jon.

I'm sure you would prefer to be occupied by Russia, than by the Islamic State, or some Libyan warlord.

Russia doesn't execute homosexuals. Russia doesn't sell captured pre-teen girls in open air bazaars as sex slaves. Russia doesn't hand out machetes to civilians, and then encourage them to go "visit" the other side of town.

In fact, when I think about it - Russia doesn't do quite a lot of things, which YOU do.

And the worst things Russia does - it learned from YOU:

1) Bombing people with drones from the comfort of an office cubicle. Doesn't matter if it's an Afghan wedding, or a building containing a single terrorist and hundreds of civilians.

2) Creating lawless private military companies that behave as marauders.

3) Bursting into people's homes in the middle of the night, humiliating them, beating them and destroying their property.

4) Completely immunizing your soldiers from any kind of legal challenge, whether it's murder or theft.

Off-Topic / Stock Market Talk and Trading - part 2 [732]

Also... guess who invented the VAT?

F*cking France of course.

Only the minds that made the Citroen DS or the Concorde could come up with such a human-hating tax system.

Another French export that serves to make life miserable for everyone around the world.

Off-Topic / Stock Market Talk and Trading - part 2 [732]


Personally - hate the VAT. At the same time, you gotta recognize that 175 countries use it. The United States is the only OECD country that doesn't have a VAT.

Reasons I hate it:

1) It's a pain in the ass. It puts a big administrative burden on a small business. If you don't have an accountant or tax preparer (if you are running some small car parts shop, for example) - then you have to take days or weeks out of your year to sort everything.

2) Everybody up and down the supply chain has to collect and remit the VAT. You charge VAT on your sales (output tax), and then reclaim VAT on your purchases (input tax). This means a need to constantly file detailed periodic returns, produce VAT compliant invoices, and on top of it all - if you do any cross border stuff - you gotta stay on top of international VAT compliance.

3) If you f*ck up - the fines and audits are usually hugely annoying. The problem is - it is easy to f*ck up with such a Byzantine system.

In America, if I'm buying something, to make something else - all I gotta do is apply for a Re-Sale Certificate or a Sales Tax Exemption. It's a one page document I can fill out in probably 90 seconds. That's it! I don't have to collect or pay out any stupid taxes from anyone, and can just carry on running my business.

The only person in America that pays a sales tax is the final consumer. So... on the example of a Coca Cola bottle:

Coke doesn't have to pay sales tax on the caps and bottles and labels it buys, just to apply for a refund of these taxes later (as under VAT). It just doesn't pay any tax at all, thereby avoiding these stupid back and forth motions. Neither does Coca Cola's distributor have to pay sales tax when it buys the pallets of Coke bottles from Coke. Neither does the retailer, that buys the Coke from the distributor. The only person that pays a tax in America is the guy that takes the Coke bottle from the shelf and drinks it.

The problem with having just a sales tax, however, is that it's in effect a tax on the poor. Many poor people in America pay significantly more in sales tax than in income tax (income tax typically being zero for low brackets). For poor people, consumption is a much larger piece of the family budget - but the sales tax is flat. A billionaire and a pauper pay the same rate.

But that's a different problem. I still hate VAT because it's a pain in the ass, and because of this a business killer.

History / Why American military aid to Europe and Poland is important to America itself? [227]


What's crazy is that they extracted the tank - but found only 3 soldiers inside out of 4 that are missing.

Now they're looking for the fourth guy.

What a mystery!

Maybe he managed to crawl out while they were sinking and is simply somewhere nearby in the mud.

Alternatively he's still alive, wandering around the forest somewhere - completely lost.

It's a tragic story, but kinda funny at the same time. These guys were sent to tow out a tank that was stuck, and ended up getting lost and sinking themselves.

If it were 4 Russians that had sunk, Twitter would be full of happy people, cracking jokes about stupid orcs.

History / Heil Poland!.....? Poland is a pro-Nazi state? [187]


Mhmm...

"We must make it clear that we have no intention of Germanizing the East in the old sense of the word... What we want is to ensure that the Slav, whether Russian, Ukrainian, or Polish, never sees anything but a German, that he works for us, that he comes under our discipline, and that he becomes accustomed to never thinking of himself as free again."
- Heinrich Himmler, speech to SS officers, Poznań, October 4, 1943

"The Slavs are to work for us. Insofar as we don't need them, they may die. Therefore, compulsory vaccination and German health services are superfluous. The fertility of the Slavs is undesirable."
- Adolf Hitler, Table Talk, 1941

It takes a special kind of stupid to put on the uniform of someone that considers you a subhuman animal.

"The war can only be continued if the entire Wehrmacht is fed from Russia in the third year of the war. If we take what we need out of the country, there can be no doubt that many millions of people will die of starvation."
- Herbert Backe, May 2, 1941 meeting notes on Eastern food policy (recorded in Nazi documents later presented at Nuremberg)

Sometimes I want to show these quotes to BB when he begins his song of "everybody can be understood". He's a nice fella, but what Germany was doing in the East was... satanic.

History / Heil Poland!.....? Poland is a pro-Nazi state? [187]


Apparently 80%+ of Indians have never heard of the Holocaust.

Compare that to Ukrainians who put on their grandfather's SS uniforms and go marching. Quite a difference.

History / Heil Poland!.....? Poland is a pro-Nazi state? [187]


Hehehe, I can't stop looking at it!

Mein Kampf is apparently a popular book in India.

It just shows that the world truly is very big. What seem like core beliefs to people in Europe, is absolutely irrelevant to people in India, and vice versa.

Indians lost more people to the Churchill engineered Bengal Famine, than they ever did to Nazi Germany. They can be forgiven for their indifference.

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History / Heil Poland!.....? Poland is a pro-Nazi state? [187]


I was at a wedding some years ago, in Istanbul. At the after party, one of the uncles got really drunk. A Pakistani man from London - at one point he started putting his finger to his nose (imitating the Hitler mustache) and throwing Nazi salutes at the same time.

I must admit it was pretty funny seeing a fat Pakistani man do a Hitler impression. Even the Turkish owner of the pub thought it was funny.

Unfortunately he got tackled by someone from his side of the family, who was apparently worried this may produce a bad impression on the other side.

In general - Hitler is quite admired in South Asia. In India and Pakistan many business feature Hitler on their branding.

A quote from an Indian article on the subject:

"Over the decades, 'Hitler' became a soft pejorative used for strict teachers, bosses, even family patriarchs. Romantic soaps showed boyfriends flirtatiously calling their ladylove "Hitler-like". A TV serial on a rather strict woman was called Hitler Didi."

Haha.


Ahhh, I feel that I missed out on the Golden Years.

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History / Heil Poland!.....? Poland is a pro-Nazi state? [187]

Constantine - I must shake your hand. To create such a thread on a Polish forum...

Espana stands quietly in a corner, taking notes.

Great name. "Heil Poland!".

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]

@Crow

Besides both modern Hungary and Serbia being very small in comparison to their historic size - what exactly unites Hungary and Serbia?

Is it just the shared feeling of betrayal and humiliation?

Hungarians and Serbs are two very different people in my mind.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]


Never. The British owned it.

Nassar nationalized it.

Britain, Israel and France started a war over this.

America and the USSR - unusually - got together and told them that unless they leave it alone, we would get involved on the Egyptian side.

Faced with this ultimatum, France and Britain slinked away like a little garden lizard.

I'm just saying it's funny to charge them for the safety of the Suez, after forcibly taking it away from them.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]


It must be very difficult for Europeans to listen to American lectures about the Suez Canal.

After all, it was the Americans ganging up with the Soviets to kick the Brits and French out of there during the Suez Crisis.

First America takes the Suez Canal away from you, and then later it reads you lectures about being a parasite.

History / Why Poland is not Russia [260]


Russian «срачка». Literally means "a little ****", but is never used in that meaning. Rather, it means "a small fight".

Example: "Little Ivan sat at his computer, and tried to ignore his parents' srachka in the kitchen."


Срать. Yes, it could mean proper and serious defecation. However, usually it means to be talking ill of someone.

Example: "Ivan, enough sratting on your boss, everyone is tired of listening to it. Eat your food."

History / Poland is great Mother of all Slavs from Baltic to Balkan [211]

My God - we are arriving in the end times.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]

The EU is the key to this whole question.

Right now - if NATO truly dies - the replacement will be built on the EU carcass.

This is the most likely scenario. Not your scenario of cobbling together some Frankenstein alliance from a series of bilateral agreements.

Macron, Von Der Leyen, Tusk, Meloni - they are driving the train in this direction.

If some country like Poland suddenly announces - "to hell with your Supra-European army, we will build an alliance with Turkey and Norway" - it will be viewed extremely negatively by Brussels and probably Germany and France.

The only happy people would be the British, who would arrive first and ask where they can sign to join this alliance. Britain is being left out in the cold, with neither America nor Europe paying it consideration. Today, Macron pushed through the requirement that the $150B defense fund can only be spent with European defense manufacturers - excluding Britain.

When you are doing something that only Britain is happy about, you should know you are doing something wrong.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]


The big question - I suppose - is does it produce a net positive gain for Germany over the long run.

The Euro is essentially the Deutschmark in disguise. Germany has managed to avoid having an extremely strong currency, by diffusing it across the entire continent. While things became substantially more expensive for Greeks and Portuguese, before they were able to meaningfully compete - the Germans were rewarded with a "weak" Euro which turbocharged Germany's exports to number 1 in the world.

We can look at the example of Poland, no? In 2004, Polish German bilateral trade was approx €25B. In 2022, it was already €167B. Since 2020, Poland has overtaken Italy as Germany's 5th biggest trading partner.

Germany now sells Poland almost $100B of goods annually. This is good for Germany - I would think.

So the question then, is could Ukraine be a similarly good "investment" for Germany? There are arguments for and against.

Many people have argued the "for", so I will argue against:

1) Ukraine in 2025 and Poland in 2004 are different animals. First and foremost demographically. Poland in 2004 was a much younger country, with a structurally larger labor pool than modern Ukraine. Ukraine is now a land of pensioners.

2) Ukraine is destroyed by war, and Poland in 2004 was not.

3) Ukraine is substantially more corrupt than Poland in 2004, or even Bulgaria and Romania in 2004 - and that's saying a lot.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]


Care to explain?

In 2004, ten countries joined the EU, with a combined population of 75 million people.

The original members were able to pull this weight without breaking their backs.

Now a much expanded and considerably wealthier EU has to absorb approx 30M Ukrainians.

Should be easy, no?

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]


Orban can be made to see Ukraine's accession favorably.

Orban's big thing, which angers his neighbors and the domestic liberal opposition, is handing out Hungarian passports to ethnic Hungarians living in Slovakia, Romania, and other places.

These "Non-Resident Hungarians" then deliver Orban big election wins. They are essentially guaranteed to vote for him.

There is in Ukraine a sizable Hungarian minority. It lives in the Transcarpathian Oblast. Orban has given all of them Hungarian passports. He uses the defense of their interests as a cover for him running offense for Putin otherwise.

Anytime people begin accusing Orban of being Putin's puppet, he trots out the issue of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine.

So what I think Orban would want in exchange for lifting a veto is Ukraine carving out a large degree of autonomy for its Hungarians. Also, Ukraine resuming supplies of Russian gas and oil to Hungary.

What other countries do you think are staunch opponents of Ukrainian membership? I can think of at least one more - Slovakia. It has similar hangups as Hungary - defense of Slovakian minority and access to Russian energy via Ukraine.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]


It is a virtual certainty that Ukraine will join the EU.

Even Putin recently said that Russia recognizes Ukraine's sovereign right to join the EU, but not NATO.

The Eastern Europeans in Brussels - like Kaja Kallas - always talk up the idea of Ukraine joining rapidly. Tusk has talked about it. Pavel in Czechia has spoken about it.

Turkey - meanwhile - had signed its Association Agreement with the EU back in 1963 (Ukraine did in 2013). It applied for full membership in 1987 (when such a country as Ukraine did not yet exist).

Then several things happened. First the Berlin Wall fell, and German Reunification started. Then the Soviet Union collapsed. Nobody had much interest to discuss Turkey in this context.

The "nail in the coffin" came in 2004, when Cyprus was admitted. Cyprus will never allow Turkey to join, without Turkey deoccupying Northern Cyprus. Turkey will never de-occupy Cyprus.

So... Turkish authoritarianism, or lack of progress in reforms, etc - is all a sham. Erdogan has only been around for 20 years, and only for ten of those has he been acting like a dictator. Meanwhile, Turkey has been facing a brick wall in admissions long before that.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]

Turkey could be as democratic as Denmark and have a transgender Prime Minister - and it would still not be admitted into the EU.

This is what Erdogan says, at least.

He thinks, and I think so too - that the real reason it is not being admitted, is because Turkey is Muslim.

Corrupt, dysfunctional, and war-torn Ukraine is literally being dragged into the EU. But Turkey which has been waiting since the 1980s, will have to wait some more.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]


Give me what you are smoking bro.

Sweden's Charles XII was the Napoleon of his age - in the bad sense of the word. He was going around burning everything in Poland, in Denmark, and in Russia. Your Augustus II and Denmark's Frederick helped us put the Swedes back in their place.

You forgot what was the Deluge? You gonna defend Swedes in front of me now?

Thank God Peter broke them at Poltava! They never recovered from that loss. Serves them right.

Turks did nothing but cause huge butthurt in Russia for about 500 years. Them, and their Crimean Tatar vassals, kidnapped LITERALLY millions of Russians, and sold them into Turkish slavery through the Genoese ports in Crimea. They thought their Black Sea would protect them, but we found our way into their lands both from the east and the west. Again - due desserts.

Poland is a little different. You attacked us first, however.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]


Lol.

The three champions of getting their ass kicked by Russia.

All three countries had their "greatness" broken by a collision with Russia.

The last war Sweden had with Russia, led it to permanently losing Finland. Earlier wars saw them get kicked out of the Southern Baltic and northwestern Russia.

Poland not necessary to mention.

Turks literally lost 8 wars to Russia - in a row. In the last war, France and Britain had to send hundred of thousands of men to Crimea to prevent the loss of Istanbul.

Maybe make something better than this club of battered wives?

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]


I agree these rankings are nonsense, but we have Jon here - mighty defender of Erdogan and simultaneous lover of democracy.

I wanted to show Jon who his idol really is. If Jon thinks it is unhygienic to deal with Russia, then it should apply to Turkey as well.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]


The University of Wurzburg produces an annual democracy index. The tiers are "working democracy", "deficient democracy", "hybrid regime", "moderate autocracy", and "hard autocracy".

Guess where Turkey ranks? It got rated a "moderate autocracy", and landed 137th out of 176 countries ranked. Russia is on 144st place.

Some countries that ranked higher than Turkey? Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, and Lebanon. Kyrgyzstan is a deficient democracy, whereas Pakistan and Lebanon have "hybrid regimes".

So... Turkey is about as democratic as Russia. Also, it's engaged in the ethnic cleansing of a minority group, both within its own borders and in neighboring Syria. Also, it allies itself to the most odious fundamentalist organizations in the region - that even countries like Saudi and UAE do not recognize and view as terroristic.

Source: democracymatrix.com/ranking

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]


This growth is a joke, you can't be serious.

I checked just now - the key interest rate in Turkey is 42.5%. For more than half a year it was at 50%. This is the price for all of Erdogan's mucking about with artificially low interest rates in prior years, and constant increases to the Turkish minimum wage.

Fancy buying an apartment with a 42.5% mortgage, Jon? Leasing a car? Financing a TV or refrigerator?

Inflation in February was 39% in annual terms, a slight improvement from 42% in January.

This rampant inflation, means that prices in Istanbul are approaching London and Paris levels, while Turks earn on average only $13,000 a year. Average Turks can not afford to eat out, let alone visit any of their country's famed resort towns.

I can also draw all sorts of fantastic GDP growth numbers, but for normal people it is these metrics which are key for judging the economy's health.

Like I said - tourism and exports (although tourism is a type of export) are where it's good. Turkish airlines for example - is killing it. It gets paid for its tickets in euros and dollars, while paying its staff pennies in Lira.

Turkish textiles are doing great. Turkish defense companies are doing great. And so on, and so forth.

However, you can't build an economy for 85 million people on tourism and manufacturing. Modern economies are dominated by services, and most of the population works in services. For them life is sh*t.

Erdogan has a Sultan's understanding of economics. Manufacturing exports are surging - I must be doing a great job! People's wages are stagnating? Why let me double them by decree! Housing has suddenly become unaffordable? I'll force the banks to loan to people at artificially low rates!

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [236]


Actually it is not. In the Middle East only Iran has a lower birth rate. With a total fertility rate of 1.51, Turkey now makes fewer babies per capita than France, Bulgaria or Romania.

This is according to the Polish Centre for Eastern Studies: osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2024-08-07/turkey-a-looming-demographic-crisis

In big cities like Istanbul - Turks don't make babies at all.

Also, Tacitus is right - their economy is in the dumps. However, Erdogan has since been forced to appoint a normal central bank head, that has begun to implement orthodox policies aimed at reining in inflation and fx volatility. There was simply no more energy left in the Turkish economy, for him to continue his wild experiments with Erdonomics.

Still - Turkey faces massive problems with youth unemployment (on a Spanish/Italian scale) and stagnating incomes. The only people that do well in Turkey are exporters and people from the tourism sector. They benefit from a cheap lira, and the fact that their earnings are largely in Euro or USD.

So it may seem fantastic while visiting as a foreigner, but it is certainly not nearly as fun for the locals.


You pointed out Eastern Europe and Scandinavia as opponents of resuming energy imports, but you forgot to mention the main one. The United States.

By far the greatest beneficiary of the shutdown of Nord Stream I & II, and older pipelines - were the American producers of LNG, and operators of American LNG export terminals like Chenniere and Venture Global.

As much as Trump is in love with Putin, this is one the victories over Russia that he likes to tout. Biden did too.

Europe represents the deepest and most expensive gas market in the world. Before their access to Europe, American companies were struggling to sell their gas for a small fraction of the price they now sell it for to Europe. In some instances - the price difference is 10X between what they were getting and what they are earning now.

Resuming supplies from Russia means the market goes back to its old mix of 30-40% Russia, 20-30% Norway, and rest from places like Algeria and Azerbaijan. It means American terminals, sitting on the Gulf of Mexico, now have to ship freight to Asia - where prices are often worse than in Europe, and the journey much longer.

Trump got elected, in part, on the promise of ushering in an era of "American energy dominance" and "Drill, Baby Drill" as he says. Killing a bunch of American oil and gas companies, and leaving the gulf coast littered with shuttered terminals kind of conflicts with that idea.

I think if Germany starts importing gas through Nord Stream again, it will work for a few months, and then it will mysteriously explode again. And again nobody will be able to say who did it, or for what reason, and instead everyone will have strong amnesia.