News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Say what you want about Putin, but his people do not toss out the lifeless bodies of teenagers along the highways in the suburbs of Moscow.

There aren't thousands of parents in Russia, that have no clue about where their son is, until he one day shows up wrapped in ice completely black and blue.

Russian intelligence services don't drop off anonymous packages at the homes of parents, with severed body parts.

These are all routine happenings in Tehran in the 1970s.

All that was necessary for this to happen, is some snitch neighbor to squeal and say he's seen your son spending a lot of time around the mosque with guys that wear beards and prefer footwear with open toes.

History / Recommended Poland's history books [257]


For this you get many thanks.


Polish history is impossible to track, unless you are able to be aware of the 10 other variables at play.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Because you are a conscientious person with a strong moral position.

I think if you witnessed the astronomic corruption of the Shah, and the way his intelligence services would kidnap and disappear anybody that presented a threat to the regime (whether Islamists, Marxists, or Liberals) - you would quickly learn to hate him.

This was a man that cared more about how foreigners perceive him and his country, than he did for his own people. He hated Iranians - saw them as inferior to Westerners, and sought to change them wholesale to make himself less embarrassed in front of his friends in Monaco and Cannes.

The word Heimat was to him an empty sound.

At the time the Mullahs were poor. Often imprisoned. Denied access to media. Denied access to foreigners. The only safe space to think out loud was with the young people in the medreses.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


I've been reading your posts for probably ten years now. I think I know what type of person you are - in the most general terms.

I think if you had been living in the 1970s in Iran - you would be among the first to support the Mullahs.

The Mullahs of the 1970s were not like the Mullahs of today. They were "punk", and they were more often surrounded by young people than anyone else.

As they were preparing for their moment in the sun, they had some "co-passengers" which I think would surprise you.

These Mullahs were allied with Marxists (Tudeh, Fedayeen e Khalq, Mujahideen e Khalq). They were allied with secular nationalists (Mossadegh's National Front and Mehti Bazargan's Freedom Party). They were backed by the bazaaris and businessmen of the large cities. Finally, they received support from extremists, primarily the Islamist street fighters and Komiteh.

Basically everyone joined together to overthrow the Shah. That's how much they hated him. Marxists, Nationalists, Progressives, the business community, and Islamists - all supported the revolution.

Recognize the man below?

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News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

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News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

For BB, Iran 1978:

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News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Hunter smokes crack and paints Impressionist paintings.

Don Jr. can bench press 300 lbs, and is an avid hunter.

Clearly - the corruption is not the same.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


What you propose is preposterous! That is blatant corruption.

The correct way to conduct foreign policy vis a vis the United States, while keeping everything above board, is to invest with Don Jr. and Eric. Alternatively, you could invest in with Ivanka and Jared.

Crypto may be too transparent an attempt at a cash bribe. Better to co-invest into some real estate development, or buy an equity stake in Trump Mobile.

On the other hand, a lady recently went to a million dollar a plate dinner at a Trump fundraiser, and the same week her son was released from jail following a presidential pardon. Maybe I'm thinking too big...

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

Little cherry on top, quoting from an FT article:

Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said this week that the watchdog "did not have any proof of a systematic effort to move into a nuclear weapon" by Iran.

His comments follow an IAEA report this month that found Iran to be in breach of its nuclear non-proliferation obligations.

Esmaeil Baqaei, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson, posted on X on Thursday that Grossi's most recent comments were "too late" and said Grossi had "obscured this truth in your absolutely biased report".

He added:

"Misleading narratives have dire consequences, Mr Grossi, and demand accountability . . . You betrayed the non-proliferation regime; You've made IAEA a partner to this unjust war of aggression."

Great job Netanyahu.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Yes the cleanest and most civilized and most chivalrous operation in world history. Right from the pages of the "Song of Roland" or "King Arthur and the Knights of the Round Table".

It's year 3 - and the headquarters of the SBU and the building of the Ukrainian General Staff stand fully intact. Even the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has not been targeted a single time.

Putin is living out his dream of Sir Lancelot.

I imagine he looks now at Israel's decapitation strikes at Iran with disgust, wondering why instead Netanyahu did not engage Khamenei in a long term polemic broadcast through their press spokesmen.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Ok now I know you are trolling - hahaha!

You need ovens to qualify as a "proper" genocide?

Anything without ovens, may only reach up to "ethnic cleansing", or "pogrom"?

Jesus Christ. What am I doing...

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Show me, how you know from Germany that "most of them are refugees".

If my whole people consists of half a million people, will you still not feel bad if you kill just "300,000" of them?

I thought that the whole reason October 7th was such a shocking evil to the Jews, is because it represented a substantial percentage of their population. I didn't know that you need to lose millions, before you have a solid moral claim.

Finally - remember I am a Russian.

I am an Orc. A slave. A murderer and a beast. Less than human.

Why? Because we killed several hundred people in a Kiev suburb.

So please stay consistent, and put all the necessary people in the beast rubric - even if they hate Muslims whom you hate as well.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


I know you are an artistic person, but do you know the difference between absolutes and percentages?

Plus, you are not accounting for the fact that the Third Reich had a few more years at its disposal to carry out the plan. Killing millions of people is busy work, and hard to do without a good organization.

Israel has at least another 3 years to catch up with the Germans, to make it a round 33%.

Would you be happy then?

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Gaza pre-war population (October 7th, 2023): 2.3 Million people

Gaza population today: 2.1 million people (a 6% decline on the previous year).

Not everyone is dead. Some managed to get out through Rafah, others through the sea. But a large part is dead.

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Global Jewish Population 1939: 16.6 million people
Global Jewish Population 1945: 11 million people (a 33% reduction)

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How many percent do you need for genocide? Let me know, so I can keep track.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Maybe this isn't worth repeating - but no one has ever used nuclear weapons other than the United States.

If the problem with Iran and nukes is that they are Muslim - then you have Pakistan which has still not nuked India.

I would argue that the only place right now where nukes are in the hands of nutters is exactly in Israel.

The country most likely to use nukes - Israel. Netanyahu constantly talks about "existential" threats in very messianic tones. That's pretty much the textbook definition of "first strike" doctrine.

The underground complex at Fordow - is likely impossible to disable fully using America's GBU-57 bombs. This would require pinpoint precision, where each bomb falls exactly into the "hole" that the previous bomb made, and the bombs are essentially used as a huge aerially dropped percussion drill. It's extremely cheap, to deploy GPS spoofing systems (on the order of tens of thousands of dollars). There is every reason to think, that the area around the mountain is chock full of electronic counter measures. This means the GBU-57 cannot rely on GPS, and has to rely on its onboard INS. The onboard INS cannot guarantee a CEP better than 10 meters.

This means, there is a very high likelihood that every subsequent bomb is gonna hit slightly off center, and simply expand the crater and toss dirt in different directions without making the hole any deeper.

The only real ways to disable the plant are:

1) A ground operation

2) Sustained and methodical bombing by conventional munitions, for potentially days or weeks. Basically erasing the mountain with explosives.

3) A nuke

So beyond always talking about "existential threats", Israel also has a potentially very practical need to use nukes.

Off-Topic / 75 Years of Israel and the War - part 3 [576]


Apparently, Israel is now saying that the attack on the hospital means there is no turning back from regime change.

Good luck boys. Godspeed.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Of course it will provide additional reach.

Who does Maersk, Evergreen, Cosco, et al have to thank for this? Israel.

America can thank Israel for this too.

Truly the tail wagging the dog, and getting the dog into all sorts of trouble. Nobody was shooting at British and American ships until Israel decided to turn Gaza into a parking lot.

Off-Topic / 75 Years of Israel and the War - part 3 [576]


You're a genius.

Verily the curse of Allah is upon the liars.

Just opened Twitter and Iran is already trolling Israel:

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News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


If the 1950s is ancient history - sure.

This Reza Pahlavi bullshit is when I first started to doubt Israel's plans.

Netanyahu has had some great successes, but he has also demonstrated that he does not know how to end wars. He promised that the Gaza operation would last about two weeks. It's been much more than that - and there is still no end in sight.

While Saudi Arabia and Qatar are busy helping the new government in Syria find its bearings - Netanyahu occupied a further 400 sq km of the Golan Heights - despite apparent attempts by the Syrians towards a rapprochement.

In Yemen - he failed to even dent the Houthi's ability to strike at ships in the Gulf of Aden, or strike at Israeli airports - and that has also been going on for a very long time.

He's great at starting things, not so great at winding them down. If Trump doesn't bail him out right now, I think he's in a lot of trouble.

Off-Topic / 75 Years of Israel and the War - part 3 [576]


Oh ****!

This probably means there was an underground command center under the hospital.

Maybe Israel had an underground airfield situated under the hospital? A tunnel network?

Haha! Karma is a *****.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Yes, familiar with their move to Albania. Not to worry, still plenty of other terrorist organizations based in London and New York - like Hizb ut Tahrir or the Gullenists or the Falun Gong.


Hmm... I think it does.

The Pahlavis stole the throne from the rightful Qajars.

Then they sold Iran to America for power (Mossadegh Coup).

They were thieves in royal clothes.

They ruled for themselves, not the people.

They were what doomed secularism in Iran. Only they could have caused an alliance to form between teenagers and septuagenarian clerics. Can you imagine what that takes?

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


My brother - can you not see the obvious? In the same way you were trying to explain to me the "obvious" just after Russia invaded Ukraine?

It's hard to make people like you - when you are pointing a gun to their head or dropping bombs on their homes.

It may be even harder to be loved, when you haven't been in the country since you were 17 years old, and then suddenly reappeared only after a hostile state hacked your national tv network and showed your face.

Reza Pahlavi cannot be viewed as anything but an Israeli collaborator. No self respecting conservative OR liberal Iranian could support the person, that Israel brought on the tip of a sword.

The Pahlavi dynasty are a bunch of lowborn Mazandarani usurpers (not even Persians). His grandfather was a nobody - an officer in the Persian Cossack Corps. Not a drop of noble blood, no tribal lineage, no historical claim, and not even any ties to the previous Qajar aristocracy. They're no Romanovs... to put it lightly.

The way his father ruled - showed the extent of their origins. They make the Al-Sauds look like paragons of nobility and civility.

------/------

The only real opposition to the regime are the Mujahideen-e-Khalq. Sometimes they bring these guys to the White House (John Bolton - big fan). They are Marxist Islamists. In the 1980s, they supported Saddam in his war against Iran, and this eroded much of the support they had within the country. Then throughout the 90s and early 00s they carried out bombings and assassinations across Iran. That pretty much completely marginalized them within Iranian society, and now they have a semi cult like reputation.

Still, the MeK is much more popular than some kleptocrat's son that hasn't lived in Iran since he was 17 years old.

History / Recommended Poland's history books [257]

@marion kanawha

I thought you were some kind of idiot initially, but now really enjoy your book reports.

Thanks for this!

Genealogy / Russian POW Camp records [71]


Just use the "+ files" button you see in the top right, when composing a post.

I gotta say - your grandpa is an unusual fellow.

Participated in the Polish-Soviet War, and then in the Polish-German war, and finally somehow ended up in Germany during the end stages of the war. Someone should make a movie about his adventures.

I assume that the military commendations you are referring to in the first part are Polish ones?

News / Will Poland as a NATO member be drawn into the Israel/Iran war ? [250]


If you show this to an alien from the planet Niburu, in the galaxy Andromeda - he might say "This indicates to me that the location for this country was likely chosen unwisely."

If something has been in trouble since Day 1, and can not sustain itself without massive and constant infusions of money from abroad - this might be an indicator that its not a very sustainable entity.

-------------------------------------------

Imagine if in a few years Britain elects a wild prime minister, that within a short amount of time announces plans to stuff all the Irish into ovens and reannex Ireland back into the UK. Over the course of a few years, he would have nearly completed his job of exterminating the Irish... but then a joint Japanese-Brazilian expeditionary force liberates the island of Ireland itself, and places the UK under occupation.

An international body meets in Cape Town, to flesh out how the post-war world will look. Irish representatives from the United States, argue that Irish people will never again be able to feel safe, unless granted their own historic Celtic homeland.

By this time, the EU is a much more centralized entity - with most power concentrated in Brussels. For all intents and purposes, the EU has turned into a global superpower, and a real empire.

The EU proposes, that it has some territory in the vicinity of Switzerland and Austria, that it could be make available for Irish settlers. The Irish are ecstatic, since this is their ancient Heimat from which they were expelled by the Romans and Germans.

Local Swiss and Austrians are made to move high up into the valleys of the Tirol, while freeing up the fertile lowlands for the moving Irish. The local Irish tell them - "there's no such things as a Swiss or an Austrian - move back to Germany migrants!".

I think you understand where I am going...

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


It's possible that they could simply collapse, sure.

Nobody thought that the 50-year old Assad regime could fall in just a matter of two weeks.

Nobody anticipated how quickly Hezbollah would crumble without the charismatic leadership of Nasrallah.

It's possible that the Islamic Republic is also just one big rotten facade that will come crashing down with a further couple kicks.

-------------------------------

I don't see its collapse as likely, however, unless Israel and Washington can convince Russia and China that this is in its interests. I can't speak for China, but I can explain how Israel could convince Russia:

1) Russia has incredibly close ties with Israel, through our diaspora. Up to 15% of Israel's population, are people from the former Soviet Union. Becoming an enemy of our own former compatriots, and by proxy the rest of international Jewry - is maybe not in Russia's interest.

2) Russia has increasingly close ties with Saudi Arabia (where we steer OPEC+ together), and the UAE (where many rich Russians live, and which is conduit for a large part of the sanctions busting trade). These two states are incredibly nervous about living next to Iran. They could reward us handsomely for sitting out this fight.

3) Under no circumstances is Russia interested in Iran having a nuke. In the past Israel had convinced us to halt jet fighter exports to Iran, and also managed to restrict the S-400 anti-air shipments to just a single battery. If Israel manages to convince Russia that a nuclear Iran is a virtual inevitability, that could convince Russia to stay out.

4) Last year, Russia became Iran's largest foreign investor. Israel, or whoever they have convinced to come and run Iran (the Shah, some liberals, whomever), has to make representations that all Russian property rights will be respected - including in Iran's key oil and gas industry.

5) All other agreements must be respected as well. Including the trade liberalization agreements, and the agreement to build the civilian nuclear power plant at Bushehr.

6) Whatever critical imports we require from Iran in support of the military operation in Ukraine, must continue to flow.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


What they can do:

1) Block the straights with the hulls of scuttled ships, necessitating potentially weeks or months of salvage and clearance work.

2) Attack Saudi, Qatari, and Emirati oil terminals on the Western coast of the Gulf.

3) Use some of the thousands of short range missiles they have to strike American military bases in the region - the same way they struck an American air base in Iraq in response to the killing of Suleimani.

4) Reignite the sectarian war in Iraq, by unleashing Sadr once again.

5) Provide weapons and aid to Saudi Arabia's oppressed Shia minority - which happens to live on top of all of Saudi's oil reserves

6) Remove any prior restrictions on aid to the Houthis

7) Use the limited fissile material they have to set off a dirty bomb in Israel, potentially rendering large parts of it dangerous for human habitation

8) It could go the full terrorism route and start responding directly on NYC, Washington - it has infinitely more resources at its disposal compared to non-state actors like Al Qaeda and ISIS.

News / Karol Nawrocki - the New President of Poland [458]


This is the power of Putinism/Trumpism.

Genealogy / Russian POW Camp records [71]


There were some early-on exchanges of Poles between the USSR and Germany. I think it lasted exactly during that period - Sept 1939 to Summer of 1940. It would make sense that the Nazis would want us to hand back "German" Poles, though I had never read about this myself.

My understanding... more - was that the Nazis were sending us back Belorussians and Ukranians, and we were sending back Poles.

Genealogy / Russian POW Camp records [71]

@gjene

Well, everything makes sense now. Almost.

Your grandpa was a Volksdeutsche. It's not likely he was captured at all.