News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


I think he should do it. It'll put Zelensky in a corner.

I mean... I understand all the reasons why it's "bad" to meet with Zelensky. He's illegitimate and no equal - yes, yes... Meeting him, means admitting that there exists an actual state called Ukraine, that has a president called Zelensky...

But Trump wants it! So we should do it. What's the worse that can happen? Zelensky can't force Putin to do anything.

We'll satisfy Trump - and he'll get a big win - because he sat down two of the most implacable foes on the planet. A real Mandela move - and certainly a hefty contribution to his eventual Nobel Prize.

This way it will look like Putin is making major concessions (just by meeting that clown), and is following through on his Alaskan promises.

Zelensky will again refuse to do the necessary (because it is politically and militarily suicidal for him), and Trump will again view him as a delusional spoiler.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


Most impressive!

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]

@Bratwurst Boy

I had not seen that in a single article.

What did happen, was Trump gave Putin a letter, in Alaska, written by his wife Melania. In it, she argues that Putin holds in his hands the ability to make the lives of thousands of children happier and safer.

Putin opened it and read it, right in front of Trump (yes, Putin can read English).

Then Zelensky came, with his posse of European presidents, and gave Trump a letter written by his wife Elena. The letter was intended for Melania.

So yes - there were things happening that put kids at the top of the agenda, but Trump certainly did not call Putin about some kid.

-//-

The reason Melania is suddenly so important, is because Trump revealed that she has a role in shaping his views on Ukraine.

This is what he said:

"I go home, I tell the first lady, 'You know, I spoke to Vladimir today. We had a wonderful conversation.' She said, 'Oh, really? Another city was just hit..."

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]

@Bratwurst Boy

This is a nice story BB, but I don't believe it's true.

Maybe, in a better world, statesmen would bother to make such a call. But I think both Trump and Putin don't give a single sh*t about some orphaned child in Ukraine.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


The $10 TRILLION DOLLAR QUESTION!

I think not much will change while the Old Man is in charge. He won't let anyone dismantle his legacy while he is around.

He doesn't listen to his kids, or his young trophy wife. He only listens to his buddies, who are just as old, and untraveled as he is.

But there is some hope, that liberals will be given more oxygen - so that we may be able to revive the economy for him. He knows the security clique is totally useless at managing the economy.

If he wants the help of Russian liberals in reviving the economy, he also has to hand out a few sweets. Unlock Instagram, YouTube, WhatsApp - little things like that.

Business is gonna wanna know, that he's not gonna attack someone tomorrow again - and wreck things all over again. 4 years of this nonsense is enough.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


Accurate. I was there at the time, on a few visits. Pretty depressing - vodka and AK-47s, and 1990s style racketeering.

However, they have since been integrated as Russian regions, with all the federal subsidies this unlocks.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


You can bet your ass that Putin is gonna make a display model out of the Donbass - precisely because he knows there are folks like you out there.

We'll starve in Russia, but make sure that the newly acquired territories look ritzy. Exhibit A - Crimea. A goddamn bottomless money hole, beginning from the bridge, and ending with the water infrastructure.

Construction teams from every Russian region are working on rebuilding Mariupol, with billions being poured in.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]

@Alien

Poland has ruled out deploying its forces in Ukraine.

It's also no longer supplying weapons in quantity.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


For me - Dmowski means: national sovereignty, Catholic culture, and suspicion of outside entanglements.

Of course it also means Polish Chauvinism and autocracy - but let's set that aside for the moment...

None of those first three things bother me. Especially being suspicious of getting involved in other people's wars.

1) National Sovereignty - Poland shall reclaim full independence in its security, economic, and cultural policies. NATO membership has tethered Polish decision-making to outside powers. The Iron Party calls for a dignified withdrawal from NATO, and the establishment of a sovereign defense posture rooted in Poland's own resources, traditions, and geography.

2) Catholic Culture: Poland's heritage - Catholic, Slavic, and sovereign - is the iron foundation of the Republic. The Iron Party rejects both rootless cosmopolitanism and narrow chauvinism. It seeks a cultural policy that affirms Polish traditions, supports families, and invests in education that instills pride in Polish history while fostering scientific and technical excellence.

3) Independent Diplomacy: Poland shall pursue foreign relations guided by its own national interest, not the rivalries of distant powers. The Iron Party envisions a Poland that can trade widely, mediate conflicts wherever possible, and preserve peace without bowing to coercion. It affirms friendship with neighbors, especially those who share its historic will to remain free of imperial dictates. This means Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and... Serbia!

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


Where will these people come from? From Mars?

You already have 5 parties in the Sejm, and a good twenty more parties that don't pass the threshold.

Not enough choice for Poles to pick from?

You would think, you could find the next Dmowski among these, no? If you can't find him yet - maybe he does not exist?

I think Torq is right - the only correct course of action is to stop wasting time, and start the Iron Party.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


I'm here all week!

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


Look - the arguments:

1) Public polling shows that now 2/3 of Russians support an immediate end to the war.

2) Our economy is not doing so great at the moment.

3) We may not give a sh*t about what you lot think about us, but we certainly have responsibilities before our allies in China, India, and other places. If Russia goes on some kind of European rampage, Xi will likely just throw in the towel at that point. I am convinced, that the Chinese and others expect this to be a one-off affair. Nobody signed up to be Russia's buddy through a series of wars, with an increasingly widening group of countries.

4) Our demographics are not getting any better, and Ukraine certainly did not help. A war with Europe is a great way to ensure we arrive at 2100 with a population of 30 million people.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


Can you consider for one second that there might be no "continuation war"?

You know... Russia signs a deal, and then just doesn't attack anyone afterwards?

Do you still want to go to war with Russia, over 20% of Ukraine?

Or is it about higher level things, as you say - the choice between being an actor or a subject?

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


Yes, they did.

But even that plan, with an American backstop, does not envision Europeans fighting against Russia directly.

Quote:

"The Ukrainian army would serve as the primary line of deterrence with European troops providing reassurance at critical national infrastructure, major ports and cities far away from the front lines. A strong post-war Ukrainian force is integral to the coalition, Western officials said."

All this plan does, is free up a few brigades worth of Ukrainian soldiers for the front.

The only madmen advocating direct involvement are the schizophrenics in the Baltics. Easy for them to do - since they know that France, Britain, and Poland will have to do all of the heavy lifting.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


Your "Coalition of the Willing" is a sorry sight.

It willingly admits its own impotence. Starmer and Macron say they will only put boots on the ground, if there is an American backstop.

What a "castrated" thing to even admit out loud. Personally - I would be ashamed to say such a thing.

It's also absolutely retarded.

Why retarded? Because supposedly this initiative was supposed to display European "strategic autonomy". So autonomous, you need the US Air Force to provide an umbrella over your troops.

As an American, I would be irritated to see such a transparent way of trying to pull my country into this entanglement through some kind of 11th hour, back door attempt. As an American, I would say - "I told you ten thousand times I don't want to be involved, what the hell is this nonsense?"

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


Ohhh... favorite weapon of Ukrainian forum users.

You are now entering deep into the weeds of this debate, haha!

If you open the link carefully, you'll notice:

1) It is described as a "Memorandum" (not a "Treaty" or "Convention").

2) It is filed in the Treaty Series but under the subcategory of "other agreements."

3) This reflects its status as a political commitment, not a ratified treaty under the Vienna Convention.

How the UNTC works, is it accepts anything member nations submit. Its inclusion does not mean that the UN or international law, recognizes it as a treaty with binding force, only that it is an "international instrument" lodged with the Secretariat.


In what sense? De Jure? They can knock themselves out.

The entire West never recognized the annexations of the Baltic states de jure. This didn't stop them from building pipelines in the Soviet Union, or shipping millions of tons of grain to us, or having fancy back-slapping summits.

If the Soviet Union did not fall apart, the Baltics would continue for another hundred years as solid constituent republics.

-//-

In reality - Ukraine is giving up territory every day.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


It is not.

It was a MEMORANDUM! A political commitment - not a TREATY.

In international law, treaties are binding under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties if they meet formal requirements (ratification, registration, etc.). The Budapest Memorandum did not go through those processes.

The US Congress never saw the Budapest Memorandum. It was never registered in the Duma, not even for 5 minutes.

The Budapest Memorandum is toilet paper to wipe your butt with - that's about the extent of its utility.


I see a fairly big hole in this argument.

What if by continuing to fight on without US support, Ukraine ends up losing a further 5-10-15% of its territory?

Is that better or worse, than fixing your losses at 20%? Which is what I believe is the essence of Trump's argument. In fact, today, Trump reposted a tweet that argued exactly that (attaching below).

It is clear to me that there are "grades" of surrender.

Is it pleasant to give up 20% of your territory? Of course not! Is it better than giving up 35%? Of course it is.

All Trump is asking Zelensky to do, is to be goddamn realistic for at least five minutes. The guy is such a numbskull, that it takes repeated attempts before he understands something.

--------

P.S. AntV - I responded to your message

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News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


Pot - meet kettle.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


Why the f*ck would the United States guarantee Ukraine's security?

Maybe I don't know much about the political workings of America, but it's my feeling that in the current climate the chance of an American guarantee of Ukraine is about as big as that of an African-American boy born in the inner city, to become CEO of Apple Inc.

That is - bordering on zero.

Off-Topic / The agreement in Alaska between the US and Russia. [43]

No thoughts until we see a document.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


If you phrase the situation in these terms, my only advice is - good luck.

We are not willing to give a single village to the Ukrainians, and will lay down tens of thousands of men to deny it (which represents a magnitude of order more human beings than ever lived in the city).

If you want Kaliningrad - then you must be prepared to send your son, your nephew, and eventually yourself.

On these terms - you may be able to fight us. God knows - Poland can fight.

If you are not able to do this... like some other neighboring countries... then sooner or later you should prepare for a new format of relations with the Russian Federation.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]

Don't misunderstand me though - tanks will still come back, one day. But only after the front is truly broken.

Right now we are still struggling to exploit successes.

Last week, there was a major breach on the Pokrovsk front, where our forces made a 15km advance over approx 48 hrs towards Zolotiy Kolodiaz (beyond the new Donbass Defense Line Ukraine has built).

Unfortunately, we were not able to rush in enough forces to continue the breach's further exploitation. Eventually, Ukrainian reserves and units pulled off from other sectors arrived in strength, and stopped the advance. Then they counterattacked, and the breach is now being shrunk.

If the breach was a little wider, and a little deeper, and we broke through completely into the Ukrainian rear - then that would be the moment that tanks would make their comeback. Rushed into the hole made in Ukrainian lines, they could engage in the type of maneuver warfare we last saw in 2022. Then, large swathes of land could be taken in a single day.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


Mass infantry charges stopped in 2023.

Since 2024 armored columns largely disappeared.

In 2025, it is infiltration by small groups (2-8) of light infantry employing motorcycles, electric scooters, and buggies. This is how the Ukrainian front is being cracked now.

With no dust clouds, loud rumbling noises, or simply without large numbers - it leaves much less time for the Ukrainian FPV operators to react before contact is made. Also, hitting a guy on a motorcycle, is much harder than hitting a lumbering 45 ton vehicle.

---

Proof that it works, is that the Ukrainians are copying us. They are also now training "Mad Max" assault teams which arrive in battle on motorcycles. Just as they are copying our "bbq grills", after laughing at us for installing "cope" cages.

Nearly every single thing we've done, that they initially laughed at, they are now copying.


If it's not a science, then why do places like the Institute for the Study of War, or the Royal United Services Institute, or the RAND Corporation, or the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, write quarterly manuscripts running hundreds of pages long dissecting Russian operational art?

If it's not a science - then why does the frontline currently look like just one long series of cauldrons? Ukraine has several cities that are currently in semi encirclement. And even though they've seen exactly how it works - on their own skin - they seemingly are unable to fix the issue. Every few months, some new Ukrainian city comes under risk of encirclement from two flanks.

They see the map, they understand the movements, and the allocation of forces, and the intent - and they are still not able to do anything about it.

When you know everything (and the Americans and Europeans fill in the gaps for them), and are still not able to do anything about it - that's a good sign you are up against some scientific effort, rather than some haphazard, back of the napkin planning.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


Well... this is an interesting example.

Prussia actually did stick to doctrine, and fought just as it had in the earlier part of the century. That is, as a compact, professional, and exceptionally well drilled force that excelled in linear tactics. The army was still a "watchmaker's instrument" of extreme precision, but it was at the same time exceptionally brittle within the new context. It could not adapt to the mass, mobility, and operational tempo of Revolutionary/Napoleonic France.

Beyond his operational brilliance, Napoleon could draw on literally bottomless manpower reserves, by exploiting the Revolutionary Era levee en masse. The small Prussian army which depended on professionalism (up to 20 years invested in each soldier), could not hope to compete - when Napoleon could raise 2-3 new armies to replace each one he lost. Once the Prussian army was destroyed - it remained destroyed.

So Prussia is not a good analogy for Russia's "amnesia". Instead, they were too faithful to their doctrine.

The Soviet Union actually perfected how to fight modern wars by 1944. That is when concepts like Deep Battle, maskirovka, echeloned exploitation forces, tight coordination of reconnaissance-fire-maneuver were developed. But in the post-Soviet era, much of that intellectual framework withered. Corruption, hollowed out institutions, and the return of an artillery-centric mindset degraded the "reconnaissance-strike complex" back into simply volume of fire. The current war is forcing us to re-discover that fires only matter if paired with maneuver, reconnaissance, and timely exploitation.

To win in Ukraine, we just needed to stick to Soviet doctrine. Instead we tried some fancy-pants American style battalion tactical groups, which lacked any depth or mass or ability to conduct independent operations, while possessing exceptional firepower.

Now we are going back to our roots, plus integrating some new tools - namely unmanned systems and precision strikes.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]

So, dear Polish friends - if you are discussing these days how to ensure your defense...

Ensure that:

1) That politicians do not set objectives (like Zelensky's orders to fight to the death in Soledar, Bakhmut, Avdeevka, Mariupol, etc). Instead, allow the military to decide what is appropriate and when. Land can be won back, but manpower cannot be replaced.

2) Training, training, training. As Suvorov said - "hard in training, easy in battle". While you have the time, spend it exercising. The Nazis were exercising throughout the late 1930s.

3) Information Warfare - you can't fight, if the people don't want to. You must work seriously at ideology - like the Pentagon does through Hollywood. Raise a generation of patriots, through a planned and systemic approach. Dying for country - must be sweet and seemly.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]

So, in a nutshell, between the years of 1941 and 1944, the Red Army suffered from:

1) Poor reconnaissance
2) Overreliance on artillery fires
3) Poor coordination between armor, air, and infantry
4) Inflexible planning

The Germans on the other hand, suffered from:

1) Hitler's increasing micromanagement. Most especially the creation of constant "Festungs", which grinded up German manpower unnecessarily, instead of allowing them to perform the elastic defense that is their forte. Bakhmut? Soledar? Severodonetsk, anyone?

2) Hitler's obsession with creating new units, instead of reinforcing existing ones. Luftwaffe Field Divisions, Waffen SS Divisions, various Feldherrhalle Panzergrenadiers, etc. Remind anybody of a special someone in Kiev that also likes to create a new brigade every month?

3) And a consequent catastrophe with manpower. All the veterans who knew how to fight were destroyed in various Stalingrads and Kursks. Instead of letting the remnants train the fresh soldiers who were being sent from Germany, they let them flounder along with strengths of only 30-40% of nominal authorized strength. Meanwhile, the fresh and inexperienced divisions would get completely mauled after their first few engagements. In the end, there were no men left in Germany to do anything at all, except wait for Soviet forces to arrive in Berlin.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]

Another passage, painful for a modern Russian observer to read:

"In the First World War, the artillery arm of the Russian Army was in many respects the only part of the army that functioned at a standard that was comparable to the armies of other Great Powers, but once the initial mobile phase of operations was replaced by trench warfare, there was growing dependence upon sheer weight of shelling to overcome trench lines and fortifications, as was the case with the armies of France, Britain, and Germany. When attacks failed, such as the Russian attack near Lake Naroch in 1916, the assumption was almost automatic that it might have succeeded if more guns, with more ammunition, had been available."

Yes! More guns! More shells! That'll break the front for sure!

«ШОЙГУ - ГДЕ СНАРЯДЫ?!»

Our grandfathers learned in the 1940s, that you can turn a place into a lunar landscape, and it still wouldn't dislodge the Germans. For some f*cking reason, we had to relearn this lesson between 2022 and 2023.

"As had been the case in the First World War, there was a tendency to assume that bombardments needed to be heavier if they were to suppress German defences effectively, but by early 1944 it was increasingly clear that this was not going to be sufficient. The volume of fire that could be delivered was now immense, but failure to identify German positions properly and to allocate appropriate weapons to engage those targets was a far greater factor than lack of gun barrels and ammunition. Hence the great importance placed upon reconnaissance in the last weeks of preparation for Bagration."

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]

Was on a super long flight today. Decided to buy a book on Amazon, for Kindle reading on my phone.

Book is called "Bagration 1944: The Great Soviet Offensive". Written by a British guy named Prit Buttar, and published in 2025. $14 for the Kindle version.

As far as Eastern Front history books written in English go... not a terribly interesting book. Probably will not read more books from this guy, but since I had read pretty much every other English language book on Operation Bagration, I figured I had to give this one a chance.

What I appreciated in this book, was the attention given to staff level deliberations at Stavka. It's pretty sobering reading, for someone that is a fan of the modern Russian army, and who wishes it well in Ukraine.

Here's an interesting excerpt:

"A consistent pattern of Red Army procedure was an analysis of operations soon after they came to an end. These analyses almost inevitably suffered from several flaws. Sometimes, they failed to identify the issues that lay behind setbacks, or attributed these setbacks entirely to one or two identified issues without looking in detail for all possible causes.

Secondly, the ability of the Soviet system to remedy the identified issues proved to be very limited. Repeatedly, the same problems were identified but it seemed as if little changed.

Reconnaissance of German positions was often inadequate, hampered considerably by the lack of specialist reconnaissance aircraft. When attacks began, coordination between artillery, infantry, and armour rapidly deteriorated (and on occasion was lacking from the very outset). Tanks became separated from infantrymen and neither was able to make any progress in the absence of the other. The ability to call in fresh artillery fire against stubborn positions was limited and often impossible, because of either poor communications or inadequate stocks of artillery ammunition."

F*cking hell....

We spent the years between 1941 and 1944 learning how to war properly, and then successfully forgot all of it, in the period between 1960 and 2022.

Now we are relearning again... what our grandfathers learned. Depressing.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


Trump said that his meeting with Putin was a "10 out of 10", and that he has decided to withhold from applying further sanctions on Russia.

News / Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 24 [946]


There is a meeting, but I think Putin's "in Moscow!" was just a joke.

But from their press conference it is definitely clear that there will now be a follow-up summit. Maybe after an actual ceasefire agreement is signed.

-//-

In terms of the stuff I was curious about yesterday... regarding what Putin was gonna do in his free time - got some answers today.

Visited an Orthodox Church. Paid respects at graves of Soviet pilots buried in Alaska.

It seems Putin really likes Alaska. In the Russian press, some tidbits were published.

He was very impressed in what good shape the Americans kept the cemetery. I think that humbled him a bit.