News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

@Ironside

Yesterday AntV quoted Medvedev saying several states were already considering transferring nuclear weapons to Iran. I dismissed it, because of the source.

But then I read a bit more about it in the Russian press, and understood that nobody is thinking this is a Russian weapon that will be transferred. Medvedev instead likely meant North Korea (more likely) or Pakistan (less likely).

Maybe he has access to some intelligence, that indicates those parties are considering such things.

If I were Pakistan - I would not do it. Iran already burned them once, by revealing the program to the whole world. Pakistan managed its program entirely in secret, using things like London and Dubai shopfronts as proxies to procure materials.

Then, relying on silent Muslim brotherhood, the AQ Khan network helped Iran get its nuclear program off the ground.

Iran's eventual transparency (e.g., public Natanz and Fordow revelations, IAEA inspections, the defiant enrichment milestones) effectively "blew the cover" on a covert proliferation chain. I think this may have endangered Pakistan's own network, invited global scrutiny, and compromised Pakistani deniability.

The Persians can't keep their mouth shut about anything. I'm sure if Pakistan gave them a nuke, they'd immediately threaten Israel with it - getting Pakistan into a lot of trouble.

North Korea is different. It's known for not giving a sh*t about anything, as long as it pisses off people in Washington DC.

Life / Why there is always around a horrible smell of sweat in Poland [220]


Shiiiiiiiiiiiit....

This is very good. Hats off to you sir!

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History / Heil Poland!.....? Poland is a pro-Nazi state? [187]


Yes, like when Torq replied to me in the rotten teeth thread with this:

"Unfortunately for Russia, no matter how few bidets Poles have, how much our arses smell and how rotten our teeth are, you will still lose this war!"

Off-Topic / What is a woman? [693]

Women are made out of ribs. It says so in Genesis.

Ribs have no brain.

Skull has brain. Spine has brain. Rib has no brain.

Off-Topic / An average brain weight by ethnicity/nation [36]

@Torq

This data does not look good for Amiga 500.

History / Heil Poland!.....? Poland is a pro-Nazi state? [187]


What is more genuine than the sad lament of a Brit living in a sea of Poles?

Off-Topic / An average brain weight by ethnicity/nation [36]


You can rely on the objectivity of this report, because Russian brains were not listed as largest.

It's easy to see what is going on in this data - whoever had a larger Jewish population, developed a bigger brain. Belarusians, Germans, Poles and Ukrainians had more Jews - so consequently they grew bigger brains.

This is not to say that Germans, Belarusians, Poles and Ukrainians are smarter than Russians. What this data does not account for, is that Russian brains are typically at least 15% more dense than other brains.

For example, if a German male brain weights 1,400 grams, then a Russian male brain can easily weight 1600-1700 or even 1,800 grams! All within a smaller package.

History / Heil Poland!.....? Poland is a pro-Nazi state? [187]

@WarSore

Mister - I see you are finding all my favorite threads.

"Heil Poland" is good. The ones about littering Poles, and Poles being the most ignorant or rude race on the planet - these are good too. Well done finding them!

But have you seen the thread about Polish teeth? No? Why not?

https://polishforums.com/life/poland-worst-teeth-world-54002/

What about the thread discussing why there is a strong smell of body odor all over Poland?

https://polishforums.com/life/poland-around-horrible-smell-sweat-26785/

An excellent thread.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

What kind of tickles me, is the idea that the GBU-57s were dropped right into two systems of ventilation shafts.

Now I have no idea if this is true, but a lady on Fox News said so, and some publications have written the same. There's some kind of cgi schematic of the Fordow complex going around on Twitter, that was first published in 2021. It seems to show that there is indeed a vertical ventilation shaft reaching to the top of the mountain.

This is some Death Star level bullshit lol! Why on Earth would the Iranians do that?

Is there some language in the Koran, that forbids building a separate ventilation building connected to the complex by... say two pipes?

In New York City, we have two big buildings - one in Lower Manhattan, and one in Brooklyn, that pushes air through the Midtown Tunnel. They're nowhere near the tunnel, and not above it either.

----//----

The other thing that's got me scratching my head are the excavators that had been photographed by satellite, ramming earth into the tunnel entrances. What's the point of this? When I try to imagine what the purpose could be, I can think of:

1) Preventing an Israeli commando raid. I guess the commandos can't bring enough explosives on their person, to blow through tens of meters of rammed earth.

2) Preventing radioactive material from flying all over Iran, in the case that America succeeds with its bombing mission.

3) A sort of makeshift mineshaft "support", in case of an American strike on the tunnel entrances. The sand might presumably absorb more of the damage of the blast, preventing a wholesale collapse of the tunnel. This way you can just dig the sand out later and have a usable tunnel again, instead of building a whole new tunnel entrance.

These are all my conjectures, originated while sitting on my toilet. Curious what other people think that could have been for?

Maybe the complex has some kind of interesting internal geometry, with sharp angles and blast doors, where you can use a wall of rammed earth kinda like an ammunition blowout panel on a tank? These sand being less dense and easier displaced than a blast door, it might channel the shock wave in a direction towards the outside, rather than the center of the complex.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


These residual effects can also be quite destructive.

Seemingly, how could the attack on the twin towers affect people living in the former Soviet Union?

But it did, and in major ways. America's need for our airspace and other forms of cooperation in enabling the mission in Afghanistan - meant it closed its eyes to practically everything it had cared so much about throughout the 1990s.

Suddenly, autocrats like Islam Karimov (Uzbekistan) or Nursultan Nazarbayev (Kazakhstan) or Ilham Aliev (Azerbaijan), were rebranded by the State Department from "autocrats" to "valued allies".

When America goes to war, it stops caring about everything else. All efforts go towards "ensuring the safety of our boys". If this means collaborating with dictators to be able to fuel your jets at their airports - it's a price you are always willing to pay. Regardless of the corrosive after effects of the patina of legitimacy that you provide these tinpot dictators.

So the knock on effects can be beneficial, but they can also be unpredictably bad - and bite you in the ass in a way you didn't expect. When some Central Asian dictator represses his homegrown Islamists to such an extent, that they decide to take their franchise global.

The main knock on effects of Iraq and Afghanistan seem to be massive refugee flows and the rise of the Islamic State.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Obviously you would!

What I would want - obviously - is a forceful Russian intervention. Cold War style. That shows America it can't bomb whoever it wants willy-nilly, whenever it decides. That puts the bully on the backfoot.

Obviously - this cannot happen. Russia is hopelessly mired in Ukraine. Every single piece of weaponry and ammunition MUST go to the front. There cannot be any discussion about helping anybody else - whether its Armenia or Iran. We're at the serious risk of a big embarrassment here in Ukraine, so everything else is kinda peripheral (at least for the time being). In the same way it was for commanders during WW2 debating about opening new fronts...

Furthermore - we are just not so close with Iran. It's been a marriage of desperation. There's a lot of things we don't like about them - first and foremost their overt Islamism, with which our country has had problems in our Caucasus regions as recently as the early 2000s.

We are much, much, much more close to Israel. Our exiled oligarchs, our pop stars, and war dissidents - most of them are in Israel. They are broadcasting daily on Twitter and elsewhere what ******** we are for being neutral. There are millions and millions of people in Russia, that have relatives - however distant - living in Israel. Not so with Iran.

So the Cold War style showdown I want - its never gonna happen. And if it did - its probably terrible for my country and the world. Hence - "romantic and naive".

Doesn't mean I can't rant. Also doesn't mean you are going to win in Iran.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Yesterday, when a journalist asked Putin why he was not taking a more active approach to the situation in Iran, he replied:

"We have two million of our former compatriots living in Israel. These are people that speak Russian, and identify with our country. We have to be cognizant of this."

To me - that was like a big flushing down of Iran down the toilet. He couldn't say it any worse.

He could have said - we are busy with Ukraine (and this would have been true). He could have said what the Chinese said, and say - "We don't want to add fuel to the fire". Instead he said what he said.

So no, don't worry that Putin will give Iran nukes. Let alone the fact that Putin has spent twenty years saying Iran cannot have nukes.

What I hope for in Iran is naive and romantic, it's never gonna happen. Maybe it's for the best.

Off-Topic / USA News and Poland - part 16 [1071]


What's astonishing about these strikes, is that people knew they were going to happen approximately 12 hrs ahead of time.

This guy is now famous on Twitter. He saw 9 B-2s flying over his house as they took off from Whitman Airbase.

Then some flight trackers reported on the fact that the B2s got refueled immediately after takeoff. This was a sure fire way to indicate that strikes were planned.

Finally - and this is more dubious - an Iranian foreign ministry official said that the Americans called ahead of the strike and explained that it was about to happen, and was going to be a "one off".

All this "telegraphing", tells me that Iran likely had if not several days, then at least several hours to prepare.

It may not have been sufficient time to relocate fissile material, but it likely wasn't completely irrelevant either.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Hopefully a bluff.

A sure fire way to plunge the world into death.

Given that the guy that said this is Dmitry Medvedev - I wouldn't worry too much.

That guy announces he will nuke somebody every weekend.

If it was Putin that said it - that would be a different matter.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


I decided not to bring up Jared, because Trump allegedly hates him, and is disappointed with Ivanka, that she married this quiet nerd.

Trump supposedly said that giving Jared and Ivanka access to the WH was one of the biggest mistakes of the first term.

No wonder - since they're both essentially Democrats. They were never gonna be comfortable with the red meat he was tossing into the cage.

News / Grzegorz Braun extinguishes Hanukkah candles in Polish Parliament [459]


To some extent, I've felt this and noticed it.

In America we have Luke Walton. Supposedly the 39th richest person in the world, with exactly $39B in net worth.

Dude shows up to his fund everyday, and sits on conference calls for hours. Meets with the heads of his portfolio companies. Helps navigate day to day problems, etc.

In Britain, he'd lead some charmed life hanging out with William and Hugh Grosvenor, and making sh*t appearances for stupid charities in Lesotho and Burundi.

You guys still have a real aristocracy. It's still considered in bad taste for sons of the gentry to do real work. It's bad taste to actually want money, or to try to crawl out of your skin just to have a taste of power.

But this is what makes British society so absolutely inaccessible to outsiders. Doesn't matter if you are a US tech billionaire, a Russian oil oligarch, or some Indian metallurgist.

America's "elite" is much more democratic.

Off-Topic / Stock Market Talk and Trading - part 2 [743]

CMS - did you listen to me and buy all those oil stocks?

I could have made you a **** ton of money in the last three weeks.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


There's an unprecedented (in the sense that no one else comes close) blurring between the American and Israeli governments.

Forget about Netanyahu addressing a joint session of Congress - uninvited. Forget about AIPAC - being a de facto arm of the RNC, to the same extent as CPAC.

Think about the crazy situation with dual nationals. In both parties.

On the DNC side you have people like Rahm Emanuel - whose family is deeply involved in Israeli politics going back to the foundation of the state.

On the RNC side you have people like Richard Perle, Paul Wolfowitz, etc - that literally combine their work advising the US government with paying jobs at Israeli think tanks.

What the hell is going on here? Does this not seem ridiculous to you?

News / Grzegorz Braun extinguishes Hanukkah candles in Polish Parliament [459]


Yes, so very useful for making the lives of Britons better.

News / Grzegorz Braun extinguishes Hanukkah candles in Polish Parliament [459]


I'm an "educated generalist". I did basically a PPE (history + economics), at a similarly prestigious American institution. I also got grades that would land me a 2:2 in Britain. Certainly not a 2:1 or a First.

I would never dare compare myself to some guy that studied applied mathematics, and now works at a quant hedge fund. Or a guy that that did computer science and symbolic systems - and now works at an AI lab.

Simply different leagues. My brain does not possess that kind of horsepower.

Unfortunately these people rarely want to go into public service. A rare exception is the mathematician that won the recent election in Romania against a football hooligan. There's Angela Merkel who has a PhD in Quantum Physics. I think Thatcher had some kind of a chemistry degree. That's all I can think of.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


This is debatable, since one could argue that Camp David and Oslo were beneficial to Israel in a largely proportional fashion as to the other side.

I'm not certain that America could have forced Israel into something it outright resisted - the last time this had happened was during the Suez Crisis.

Israel has sometimes been an unwilling passenger in some White House efforts. For example, Obama and Biden largely ignored Israeli protestations during the Iranian nuclear negotiations. Israel, in parallel, tried to do everything to sabotage these efforts.

This included Netanyahu showing up at the UN General Assembly with a chart representing a cartoon bomb. Also, it included Netanyahu traveling to Washington DC, without asking permission from the Obama White House, and giving an address to Congress - as if he were the POTUS during a State of the Union address.

How many foreign presidents can show up whenever they like, and address both chambers of Congress?

Can Keir Starmer do this - on account of the Special Relationship? Can Macron - president of the country that secured your independence? No? Why not?

Why does Netanyahu behave in Washington DC as if he were in his own house?

News / Grzegorz Braun extinguishes Hanukkah candles in Polish Parliament [459]


It's the same in Britain.

Britain finds itself in the mess it currently is, largely because the same Oxbridge people that got a 2:2 PPE end up in government.

David Cameron, Rishi Sunak, Ed Miliband, Malcolm Fraser, etc...

As an engineer, you know it is infinitely harder to get decent grades in the sciences, than to get a B+ average in "Philosophy, Politics, and Economics".

Anybody that can make a decent salary being a barrister or a banker, would never enter the British civil service.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


That's the only answer that makes any sense! My ears must have been deceiving me since November 5th last year.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Witness America right now, or examine your own heart for guidance.

I have liberal, democrat-to-the-core, Jewish friends in New York. Without a single exception - all of them have come out in the side of Trump in the past 24 hours. In our group chats, on Instagram, and on Facebook.

Understand - 24 hours ago the same people thought that Trump was in essence an enemy of the people. Now they're all waxing poetic, about what a stupendous effort at deception he had organized, and how maybe they misjudged him...

This is the power of war. War plays on people's deepest emotions.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Wrote it for you, on the occasion of your return :)

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


Bad example.

1) Yugoslavia had fallen apart several years earlier under its own internal contradictions. The bombing campaign of 1999 happened later, and against a hugely weakened rump state consisting of basically Serbia and Kosovo.

2) Milosevic left two years after the bombing campaign, and for reasons that had almost nothing to do with it.

3) The bombing campaign was supposed to last just a few days, but instead lasted nearly 100. By the end of it, NATO had run out of targets, and started bombing Serbian infrastructure like bridges, power plants, and then finally even the Chinese embassy in Belgrade.

4) Serbian military units in Kosovo were not destroyed en masse. They used camouflage, decoys, and dispersed movement to avoid destruction.

5) Even after NATO's "victory", Kosovo was plunged into retaliatory ethnic violence, and a massive UN/NATO presence then had to stabilize the region. Kosovo is still not recognized by many states.

---/---

Contrast this to Iran:

1) Israel's unprovoked attack has rallied the people around the regime. Even liberal Teheranis, in interviews quoted by the media, are saying they feel like they have no choice but to defend their country.

2) There aren't similar ethnic divisions to exploit as in Yugoslavia. Iran's Kurds and Azeris have been largely pacified. The Baluchis are similarly weakened, after nearly three years of back to back policing operations in Baluchistan.

3) Iran has an order of magnitude more resources than "rump Yugoslavia of the '99 vintage". Billions of dollars in oil and metallurgical exports, that Serbia never had. Access to ports and the open sea. 90 million people.

4) There's no offer to join the EU, that can be dangled like a carrot in front of the Persians. Your ability to offer them a positive vision of the future is severely limited in comparison to what you could offer the Serbs.

5) Iran has a Russia-like ability to absorb losses, that has been demonstrated several times in the past. Between 1980 and 1988 they fought THE WORLD. Yes, both the USSR and USA aligned against them and gave Saddam a veritable ocean of weapons. They stopped Saddam, with basically human wave tactics involving 16-20 year old members of the Basij militias. Saddam bombed every single city in Western Iran for 8 years. Supported every possible separatist movement and opposition to the Islamic Republic. And still lost.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

Another thing is that I don't remember Iraq or Afghanistan being this unpopular on day 1. Sure there were some antiwar marches over the years, and some individual senators and congressmen that claimed they always hated the idea - but it took a good 5-6 years before everyone came around to the idea that the wars were completely stupid.

This new Iran war is already turning off at least 50% of the people. Not just Democrats, but within the Republican Party too.

This tells me there's simply no way in hell that we'll see US soldiers marching over the Zagros Mountains. Simply a political impossibility.

So again - without troops - how much can you expect to do through aerial and missile strikes?

How will this rule out the possibility of Iran eventually developing the bomb?

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

Wars are easy to start and hard to wind back down.

The other guy also gets a vote.

Finally, no missile or airplane has ever successfully occupied a country (but that's precisely what Trump is afraid of - boots on the ground).

Will come back to this post in a year hopefully, and see if it was close to the truth.

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]

God Bless America!

News / The Iran war and Poland [826]


With all due respect, brother, your interpretation lacks the layered nuance of what I like to call the higher jihad of negation. Yes, the Prophet (SAW) said "look after the widow and the poor person." But are we to assume this means all widows and all poor people?

Let me ask plainly: what if the widow in question harbors kufr in her heart? What if the poor man voted in a democratic election or, God forbid, posted pictures of his uncovered knees on Instagram?

You see, true mujahideen don't merely look after widows and orphans indiscriminately, they purify the social fabric. Sometimes, brother Torq, "looking after" means sending someone ahead to the afterlife for a stern meeting with Malik the Keeper of Hell.

To borrow from classical jurisprudence (namely my cousin Ramzan's blog), the act of killing an unworthy widow is, in fact, a mercy: for she might otherwise live long enough to own a small business or teach mathematics unveiled.

We must rise above the literalism of Hadith and embrace the allegorical slaughter that lies at the heart of spiritual warfare. Not all jihad is with the sword, yes, but occasionally, the sword must visit the soup kitchen.

May Allah (سبحانه وتعالى) grant you hikmah, ya Torq, and may He grant me the patience to bear your liberal interpretations. Ameen.