News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

I thought about this some more, and I'd rather just give the poll results without further details - it will allow readers to make their own conclusions about the validity of the poll in question. The unadjusted poll here is the original result given by the polling company, the adjusted one is based on the work of an established Polish political scientist who is controlling for the previous accuracy of the polls conducted by the polling company.

Unadjusted poll:

Duda: 38.94%
Trzaskowski: 26.6%
Hołownia: 16.41%
Bosak: 5.71%
K-Kamysz: 5.46%
Biedroń: 5.14%
Others: 1.74%

Adjusted poll:

Duda 38,1%
Trzaskowski 27,2%
Hołownia 14,6%
K-Kamysz 6,2%
Bosak 6,0%
Biedroń 3,3%

==

Still nothing to be particularly excited about. Trzaskowski is hitting PiS with well timed attacks while Duda flounders, but PiS are attacking back with more welfare policies and a mass unfreezing of the economy which should return Duda comfortably to the 42-44% level. We probably won't see the results of the last couple of days until next week - but IMO, the most important polls will be conducted this weekend and then after the 10th June. Those are the two 'paydays' for Polish workers.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

I missed this one, but:

Second round:

Duda: 50.3%
WKK: 49.7%

Duda: 52.3%
Hołowina: 47.7%

Duda: 52.6%
Trzaskowski: 47.4%

To give an idea, 1% is roughly 180,000 votes based on a 60% turnout. It means that Duda has an advantage of around 0.5m votes - which was his winning margin in 2015.

I wish we could have some more polls conducted regionally, as it would give an idea as to how strong Duda is in Western Poland.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


The question is - are they mobilised outside of cities? There are a lot of "what-ifs" in the current situation, though what we should be looking for is two things:

- Will Duda fall below 40% without a corresponding rise in Bosak's percentage?
- Will Trzaskowski poll above 30% without a fall in Hołownia's percentage?

IMO, Duda isn't comfortable right now, but he still has a reasonable advantage. The question is whether he can maintain it - he's making terrible mistakes again, such as being caught telling people "we gave you 500+ and the 13th pension", which went down badly with taxpayers.

What's also important is what's going on right now in the Senate. It's believed that the Senate will propose a 10 day period for collecting signatures, which gives the 5th July as the election date. Local governments are also signalling that they will refuse to conduct the election before that date, as they have to sort out exams in June and so they don't have the administrative capability of dealing with national exams and elections too.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


In theory, it should sink him, but Polish presidential elections are quite unpredictable. The KO electorate has mobilised around Trzaskowski, and I think if he pulls up to 30-35% in the polls, Duda will be in for a tremendous fight. Hołownia is fading quickly, and almost none of his support is transferring to Duda.

I'm absolutely convinced right now that the election will be decided by around 1% of the electorate.


That's exactly what they're doing. It might just work as well...

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

No, I wouldn't. There is a documented example from the 2019 European elections where declared Konfederacja voters turned out to be PiS voters (around 1.7% of the total vote), and it's possible that we're seeing the same thing again. If you add 2% to the 'definitely will vote', Duda is up to 46% - which would be enough IMO.

My personal judgement is that Duda needs 42% in the first round to win. That assumes that Duda will be preferred by 70% of Bosak voters (+3.5%), 20% of Hołownia voters (2%) and 30% of WKK voters (2.7%). It's not in tune with what polls are saying, but I'm not entirely convinced by the argument that 30-40% of Bosak voters will go to Duda.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Marcin Palade (well known right wing political scientist) gave the following observation on Twitter (quick and dirty translation)

- To sum up the polls from May 24, 2020: if Duda obtains approx. 45% in the first round, he will need [to win] (1) full re-mobilization of its electorate (2) every fourth voter from Kosiniak-Kamysz (3) every fifth from Bosak (4) votes from some voters who will appear only in the second round

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll - unadjusted:

Duda: 41%
Trzaskowski: 26.7%
Hołownia: 10%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 8.3%
Bosak: 5%
Biedroń: 3%
Undecided: 6%+

Second round:

Duda: 49.6%
Trzaskowski: 44.7%

Duda: 49.8%
Hołownia: 45.4%

Duda: 47.7%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 47.0%

==

Same poll, adjusted:

Duda: 41.8%
Trzaskowski: 25.5%
Hołownia: 9.5%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 8.2%
Bosak: 6.5%
Biedroń: 2.9%

==

Among 'definitely will vote':

Duda 44%
Trzaskowski 28%
Hołownia 11%
Kosiniak-Kamysz 9%
Bosak 5%
Biedroń 3%

==

And another parliamentary poll:

PiS: 38.51%
KO: 24.52%
Lewica: 13.64%
PSL: 12.60%
Konfederacja: 9.03%

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll:

PiS 40.9% - 221
KO 26.2% - 130
PSL 10.9% - 47
Lewica - 9.0% - 40
Konfederacja 8.1% - 21

And the likely range of support of candidates based on polls so far:

Duda: 36-44%
Trzaskowski: 16-32%
Hołownia: 8-20%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 6-12%
Bosak: 4-10%
Biedroń: 3-6%

The Trzaskowski result is more uncertain due to the lack of polls. However, Duda's chances of winning in the 1st round are almost zero at this point.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

We shall ;) But from my observations, it's very unpredictable. We know that Podlasie and Lubelskie will go heavily with Duda, but apart from that, it's hard to tell.

What's more concerning right now is that PiS now officially control the Supreme Court. If PiS lose, we can expect games with the Supreme Court annulling the election.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


The polls aren't saying that - both WKK and Hołownia's electorate are trending very heavily towards Trzaskowski.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Hard to say. Most analysis I've seen suggests that a lot of them simply won't vote because there's nothing in it for them, but they're a very unpredictable group. Bosak himself will have a lot to do with it - if he endorses a particular candidate, then they'll vote. It's most likely that he'll simply refuse to endorse anyone though.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It would be good to know what you're talking about before making such assumptions. PiS barely increased their vote in the Senate races as opposed to the Sejm, which means that ~1m Konfederacja votes went somewhere else. Even allowing for the possibility that some people voted for a split ticket, it doesn't account for where the rest of the vote went.

Not one single commentator believes that Duda will take 90% of the Bosak vote. PiS themselves aren't even talking about it, because they know that it's a dangerous thing to rely on. After all, let's not forget that for some Konfederacja supporters, Duda is jhated for his pro-Jewish stance.

As for 'neo-liberal scumbags', perhaps you can tell us why you support the First Bankster of Polish politics. Nothing says 'neo-liberal' more than running a foreign bank for years, does it?


I think Bosak correctly understood that the usual identity politics were going to get him nowhere, but that focusing on real world issues such as PiS separating families in border areas was much more effective. In particular, I see that Bosak is hammering home the "no more new taxes" line too.


It has, but only to the extent of largely preventing Konfederacja from appearing on public TV/radio. I predict much worse if Duda loses, because they'll need a scapegoat.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll relating to the Sejm:

PiS - 38%
KO - 31%
Lewica- 13%
Konfederacja - 9%
PSL - 8%

PiS - 203 (-32)
KO - 147 (+13)
Lewica - 52 (+3)
Konfederacja - 33 (+22)
PSL - 24 (-6)
mniejszość niemiecka - 1 (bz)

If this happened, it would be the worst possible outcome for PiS. They would have to sacrifice a huge amount to get Konfederacja to vote for their candidate in the vote of confidence for the PM, yet their government would hinge entirely on Konfederacja not abstaining during any constructive vote of no confidence in future. They'd also be relying on Konfederacja acting as a single bloc in the Sejm, which is easier said than done when there's several strong personalities who have their own agenda.

It's a clear sign that Konfederacja have also broken the "nothing to the right of PiS" barrier.

Give credit to Bosak - he's run a campaign focusing on real world issues. He's constantly bringing up how PiS are increasing taxes left/right/centre along with burdening Polish businesses with absurd regulations, and it's clear that he's getting through to small business owners.

If Duda loses the election, my prediction will be war with Konfederacja on the part of PiS.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

One interesting thing I've just seen - a right wing political commentator has Bosak voters going more for Trzaskowski than Duda, while Hołownia, WKK and Biedroń voters all go heavily to Trzaskowski in the second round.

If this is true, then Duda may need 45% in the first round to ensure victory. I'm sticking with my 42% number right now though.

News / Poland GDP growth surprises on upside [35]


Not only - remember that you have to include things such as Polish visa-free entry to the Schengen countries (which already had common entry rules before the internal borders were removed) or Western influence on things such as sorting out the mess at the Western borders.

For me, the thing that Poland should be praised for is the way that the government very quickly pursued EEC/EC/EU membership - Poland made the first agreement as early as September 1989, had an interim agreement in place by 1992 and applied to join in 1994.

News / Balcerowicz - PO trojan horse in Ukrainian government [11]


I think so too. Those who think otherwise are the ones who believe in the fairytale that the Polish economy was thriving in 1989.

News / Poland GDP growth surprises on upside [35]


Largely because the previous high self-employment taxes were abolished, combined with there simply being no work for many people during the transition.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Three more polls today:

First one relates to the Sejm:

PiS 40,1% 221
KO 25,9% 129
Lewica 11,0% 43
PSL 10,8% 45
Konf 8,1% 21

And two Presidential polls:

A. Duda 41.5%
R.Trzaskowski. 21.1%
S. Hołownia 15.3%
WK-Kamysz 8.3%
K. Bosak 6.6%
R. Biedroń 3.0%

==

Duda 42.5%
Trzaskowski 23.2%
Hołownia: 11.4%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 9.3%
Bosak: 4%
Biedroń: 2.7%
Undecided: 7.1%

==

One other credible political commentator suggests that (based on his methodology for adjusting polls based on the previous credibility of the polling company)

Duda: 39.5%
Trzaskowski: 21.5%
Hołownia: 14.4%

At this time, I wouldn't like to bet on the winner.

News / Polexit? Almost half of the Poles believe that Poland would be better off outside of the EU [548]


It didn't grow quickly between 1990-2004, did it? Compare the rise between 2004-2019 with 1989-2004, and you have your answer.

Also, "truly open and unrestricted euromarket" - so you support free competition? What kind of barriers would you put in place to prevent German companies from simply wiping the Polish competition off the market? Let's go with a good example - PKP Intercity. You support truly open and unrestricted competition, so that means an end to the large subsidies that it receives. Deutsche Bahn come in with brand new trains that are much more comfortable, with much more customer-friendly attitudes and much deeper pockets. They outbid PKP Intercity for the best 'slots' on the railway, meaning that for instance, the evening departures from Warszawa-Centralna are all operated by Deutsche Bahn to the detriment of the Polish carrier.

What happens then?

I'm all for open and fair competition, but it would be the end of most Polish businesses within months.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Ironside, what's your opinion of Duda's campaign so far?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


The interesting thing is that it looks like Duda is rapidly losing the support of the 'business' part of the PiS electorate. It seems that Bosak's relentless campaigning on behalf of businesses and individual freedoms is paying off for him, while PiS have ignored the threat from Bosak and wasted a huge amount of energy on Trzaskowski instead.


Lost his way after the postal elections situation appeared. He didn't understand the power of social media (which is bizarre, given how good their campaign was last year online) and just went quiet. The end result is that he lost the rural middle classes to Hołownia, who is pretty much offering the same as him.

PiS are repeating the exact same mistakes as they made before the coronavirus hit - bad PR after bad PR, with no real ability to respond to people's genuine concerns. The latest pictures of Morawiecki laughing and joking in a restaurant while breaking the rules that everyone else has to stand by is like rubbing it in the face of voters.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Latest poll:

Duda 35%
Trzaszkowski 21%
Hołownia 19%
Bosak 13%
Biedroń 8%
Kosiniak-Kamysz 5%

History / What is Poles opinion on Intermarium (Międzymorze)? [188]


I do like the ease of it though - get dropped off next to the terminal, walk to the gate, pass through passport control/security and you're immediately at the gate. No lengthy walks through duty free or other gubbins, and you can easily do it all within an hour of the flight.

It will be valued by future business travellers to Intermarium!

History / What is Poles opinion on Intermarium (Międzymorze)? [188]

Tegel for business, Schönefeld for leisure and Tempelhof for small aircraft so that they don't block either of the big airports?

Makes sense to me!

History / What is Poles opinion on Intermarium (Międzymorze)? [188]


...yeah, you have a good point ;) Then it should have been "for the middle classes of Prenzlauer Berg"!


Closing Tegel :(

History / What is Poles opinion on Intermarium (Międzymorze)? [188]


NO! But it's your city, not mine :) But I really hate it, it's the second most stupid thing ever in Berlin.


But that's what I mean - it should have been made into a genuine Palace of the Republic for the people. So much could have been done with that space instead of just making some hugely expensive rebuilt palace to act as a museum.

History / What is Poles opinion on Intermarium (Międzymorze)? [188]


As I remember, this was largely a myth. The asbestos had been removed by the early 2000's, and the building could have been reused. It should have been used for the people, in line with the original idea (as I recall, it wasn't just home to the DDR Volkskammer, but also for many other things). I understand why some people might have hated it, but the idea of a building for the people was no bad thing. And I liked it architecturally too. I only saw it once, just before they started to demolish it, and I miss it as a tourist.


It's AWFUL.

I seriously can't stand it. I passed by it in December and scowled at just how dreadful it is. It's fake, it doesn't suit the area, it wrecks the view from the Lustgarten, and and... I just hate it.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

The last poll has been adjusted to account for the turnout (78%!!) and comes out as:

Duda: 40.5%
Trzaskowski: 20.4%
Hołownia: 13.8%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 7.6%
Bosak: 7.1%
Biedroń 4.3%

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another day, another poll, and this one confirms that Duda is slipping:

Duda: 39%
Trzaskowski: 18%
Hołownia: 15%
Bosak: 8%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 3%
Biedroń 2%
Jakubiak: 2%
Undecided: 1%

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Latest polls. Things are getting very, very interesting. I wouldn't like to bet on either Hołownia or Trzaskowski at this point, and I'm still undecided as to who to vote for myself. Duda has definitely no chance of winning in the first round now, and if he does collapse to 34% by the end of next month, he will have lost the election.

Election this Sunday:

Duda: 43%
Hołownia: 20%
Trzaskowski: 15%
Bosak: 8%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 5%
Biedroń: 5%
Undecided: 5%

Election in July:

Duda: 34%
Hołownia: 21%
Trzaskowski: 17%
Bosak: 7%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 6%
Biedroń: 6%
Undecided: 10%

Assuming Duda vs Hołownia in the 2nd round:

(All participants in the survey)

Hołownia: 46%
Duda: 32%
Undecided: 20%

(Only those who would vote this Sunday)

Duda: 47%
Hołownia: 46%
Undecided: 7%

(Only those who would vote in July)

Hołownia: 51%
Duda: 38%
Undecided: 11%

Small update: Morawiecki has announced June 28th as the election day, with the second round on July 12th.

To compare to 2015, Komorowski lost around 10% of the vote (and Duda gained 9%) over the space of 5 weeks.