News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

It seems that she has! She's denied it on Twitter, but it's clearly obvious that they've been told to back down, judging by the very sudden change in tone.

I find her to be an incredible ambassador to be honest - she takes absolutely no nonsense from anyone in the Polish government, and the way that she defends American interests is fantastic. I remember how sceptical people were of her appointment, but I think she's proved beyond doubt that she was the right pick for the job. If anything, I'd say that with her skills, she's wasted in Poland when she could easily succeed in a higher profile position.

Genealogy / The typical Polish look, or all Eastern Europeans [656]


I can tell you that it's impossible for a DNA test to distinguish between Poles, Czechs and Slovaks. The West Slavs are pretty much indistinguishable in terms of genetics.

Law / Polish Company Sp. z o.o. (Deposit sum and local check from the authorities) [7]

It's not registered in the commercial registry, nor has it ever submitted financial statements.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

And some more interesting titbits:

The bookies have (by a considerable margin) Duda winning by less than 14.5% over Trzaskowski in the first round. It means that they're pretty confident that Duda won't score a knockout (i.e. 45%+) in the first round.

And...I've just spotted that Duda has invited Biedroń and his mother to the Presidential Palace tomorrow, as well as another LGBT person. What on earth is he doing?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another day, another poll. I think this poll is garbage and not worth taking seriously, especially the ridiculous idea that Hołownia has suddenly gained 5% overnight.

Duda: 37%
Trzaskowski: 28.7%
Hołownia: 14.8%
Bosak: 6.3%
K-Kamysz: 4.4%
Biedroń: 4%
Undecided: 5%

Second round:

Duda: 39%
Trzaskowski: 42%
Undecided: 19%

Duda: 38%
Hołownia: 46%
Undecided: 16%

I think at this point, it's becoming clear that Duda is polling towards the bottom of the 40-42% range, while Trzaskowski is still 1.5-2.5% short of reaching 30%.

Duda's "me too" in response to someone telling him that he's gay could expose him to widespread ridicule among younger voters, however.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


This is something I'd much rather see built first, because it's badly needed. I remember once having to go to Przemyśl from Poznań, and what struck me was just how long it took to even get to Kraków by train, let alone Rzeszów and beyond. One nice thing about PO and now PiS - both parties committed to upgrading and fixing the rail network, and I think there's broad agreement in society that the railway network needs to be developed further.


I really don't agree with this to be honest. Aviation is harmful enough to the environment that we should be maximising resources, and Ryanair/Wizzair using Okęcie is just an absolute waste of an airport in a prime location. From a purely strategic point of view, the LCC's aren't bringing in connecting traffic, and tourist traffic won't care if they have to travel an extra half a hour to get to an airport.

I'd be very much in favour of allowing airport operators the possibility of prioritising airlines that operate longer routes. In Poland's case, it would favour LOT, but I really don't see any harm in LCC's using Modlin.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I wouldn't be so sure - you only need a sample of around 1000 for it to be reliable. The more interesting thing is to observe what happened last May - people declared support for Konfederacja, but then actually voted for PiS. I think it could happen again, especially among voters for whom voting for PiS would be seen as a faux pas socially.

About what you've just posted - from an aviation point of view, is there any real sense in trying to compete directly against Berlin-Brandenburg? The LOT strategy of developing a solid CEE network combined with long haul flights to Asia wasn't a bad one, but Warsaw is poorly located for long haul flights - Istanbul and the ME airports are better for 'one stop' connections, while Helsinki has the advantage of being close to Asia. I'd much rather see Warsaw become the undisputed capital of CEE flights - do you know what Air Baltic are doing in Riga? That really should be LOT's speciality - a decent network of short/medium haul flights going to Warsaw for business reasons, while maintaining a reasonable long haul network to Asia (and the US). The CPK just isn't needed - it would make more sense to simply make sure that Okęcie is for premium connections, while getting rid of Wizzair and Ryanair out to Modlin where they belong.

The other problem I have with the CPK - it kills domestic flights on most routes, with the possible exception of the Szczecin route. No-one is going to travel all the way out to the CPK just to fly to Kraków or Gdańsk. Business travellers like Okęcie (as they like Tegel) because of the location - it's hard to compete with 20 minutes from airport to downtown.

I also think Berlin-Brandenburg is absolute stupidity for so many reasons, and I was against it from the beginning. Lufthansa won't create a hub there, and Berlin still sucks compared to Munich and Frankfurt economically.

If you think about Berlin, Tegel as the 'business' airport and Schoenfeld as the 'leisure' airport was perfectly fine, just as Okęcie as the 'business' airport and Modlin as the 'leisure' airport.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


How does this explain the polling that consistently shows Duda losing to Trzaskowski in the 2nd round among Bosak's electorate, with a plurality choosing to stay at home?


As a whole, Konfederacja didn't back up PiS in the Senate, so why would they suddenly change now?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

No, of course he's not going to endorse Trzaskowski. Bosak is from RN, so it would be political suicide for him to do that.

But from a purely electoral point of view, I don't believe that he'll endorse anyone. Konfederacja's support is divided, so by endorsing a candidate, he would risk alienating part of his support - which would be crazy after all the hard work that he's put in. IMO, I think he'll simply sit on the fence and say that both options are bad.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I'll be surprised if he endorses anyone.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Konfederacja won't support anyone as a combined formation. Some of them are behind Duda, others are behind Trzaskowski, and others hate both candidates equally.

More revelations today about Szumowski, as it's now becoming clear that he's very, very deep in it. 200m PLN was given to a private company who then didn't deliver any medical equipment.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

And another:

Duda: 40.5%
Trzaskowski: 28.9%
Hołownia: 10.6%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 8.6%
Bosak: 7.3%
Biedroń: 3.8%

You have to wonder what kind of deals are being offered to Bosak right now...

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


No need, I'd rather we discuss the poll results rather than the source.

In related news, Konfederacja claim that they're attracting bigger numbers to their rallies than Duda is. If this is true, Duda is in trouble.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll:

First round:

Duda: 40.7%
Trzaskowski: 28%
K-Kamysz: 9.7%
Hołownia: 7.8%
Bosak: 7.1%
Biedroń: 3%

Second round:

Duda: 48.8%
Trzaskowski: 48.0%
Undecided: 3.2%

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I think it's the old power fatigue thing more than anything. They're offering nothing new, and they seem to be blind to the problems that ordinary people have. It seems to me as if they've also made a huge blunder in assuming that Konfederacja supporters will vote for Duda over Trzaskowski, even though there's no evidence of them doing that.

One point - the amount of infections might still play a big part in scaring older voters away from voting, especially in Silesia.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I think they'll almost certainly hammer him on economic issues, because there are simply no answers. Szumowski's business dealings will almost certainly feature as well.

Czarnek will allegedly be thrown out of PiS tomorrow, which suggests that they're already retreating from the LGBT topic.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

It's an incredibly risky game. He's dominating the headlines, but with such aggression, it's unlikely to persuade opposition voters to move to him. I've seen one analysis that suggests that Duda isn't trying to win opposition voters now, but rather he's trying to play to the 2nd round 'new' electorate who always appear.

The first debate will be interesting, especially if Duda chooses to ignore economic issues and focuses on social issues instead.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Some sad news: Marcin Palade, a credible right wing political scientist (who sympathises with PiS, but who is very fair with his observations) has been given a death threat. This is absolutely disgusting, and I think all of us can condemn such threats. He's accused of being both a PiS-troll and a Trzaskowski-troll for his work and observations, yet in all the time that I've followed his work, he's been very fair with his assessments.

Anyway, some new predictions:

1st round

Duda 44,5%
Trzaskowski 29,1%
Hołownia 8,5%
Kosiniak-Kamysz 7,1%
Bosak 7,0%
Biedroń 3,0%

2nd round:

Duda 51,6%
Trzaskowski 48,4%

Voters to Duda in the 2nd round:

Hołownia 7%
Kosiniak-Kamysz 20%
Bosak 31%
Biedroń 5%

Voters to Trzaskowski in the 2nd round:

Hołownia 75%
Kosiniak-Kamysz 65%
Bosak 34%
Biedroń 90%

One thing to stress: there are really no reliable models showing how Konfederacja voters will behave in the 2nd round.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

dorzeczy.pl/kraj/143456/ekspert-przegrzanie-tego-tematu-moze-zaszkodzic-andrzejowi-dudzie.html


This is from a PiS supporting and heavily government-funded magazine. It's worth reading, as it gives a clear warning to Duda that it's time to back off on the subject.

I'm looking at other political scientists now, and almost all of them seem to agree that Duda will lose śląskie. Trzaskowski is slightly struggling in łódźkie, and he hasn't made a major breakthrough in mazowieckie.

What's critical is that right wing political scientists aren't giving Duda more than 51% in the second round.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Latest poll:

Duda: 40.7%
Trzaskowski: 28%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 9.7%
Hołownia: 7.8%
Bosak: 7.1%
Biedroń: 3%

I'd say this is credible. I don't think Duda will lose any votes in the first round from his recent comments (although he's now backtracking - twitter.com/AndrzejDuda/status/1272164178237718530 ) - but I also don't think that he'll gain from them.

The question is the 2nd round - will he gain or lose from this? I've read some commentary about this from right wing political scientists, and one comment stands out: for the majority of Polish people, they are neutral towards sexual minorities. They don't love them, but they equally don't hate them - so focusing on LGBT issues is largely pointless regardless of the candidate.

Another poll, and this one (if genuine) is an eye-opener:

Duda 49,8%
Hołownia 50,2%

Duda 50,1%
Kosiniak-Kamysz 49,9%

Duda 50,7%
Trzaskowski 49,3%

Duda 60,1%
Bosak 39,9%

To give some sense of perspective, a lead of 1.4% is equal to around 420,000 votes, or a lead of 210,000 votes. It's not much.

Life / Neighbours complaining about Barbecue - what is the law in Poland? [18]

What you need to do is act from a position of strength, and show it. What they're doing is testing your strength - of course, there are no such regulations, but if they've built a garage illegally, they're obviously trying to discourage you from things that they don't want.

Check the regulations here - muratordom.pl/przed-budowa/dzialka/warunki-techniczne-usytuowanie-budynku-granica-dzialki-aa-cQoW-RJiK-STv5.html - and use it against them. One good option is to talk to them directly with a list of non-compliant things, then explain that they can either rectify the situation, or you'll pay a few grand to a well known local lawyer to sort it out directly with the town hall.

Study / School meals in Poland [145]

I'm not so much of a fan of that, because (at least where I work), there's a 15 minute break between 9:30 to 9:45 so they can eat their second breakfast. They're probably not going to touch fruit/veggies then :(

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Will it be enough, though? PiS lost the Senate, and the lessson from the Senate race was that PiS don't do particularly well in head-to-head contests where personalities count more than parties.

Something else is coming up: people are reporting problems with registering to vote. There's immense interest in voting among the Polonia in Europe, but the postal votes could be highly problematic.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Some interesting commentary this evening, suggesting that Duda is at a huge disadvantage with the debates planned. He's a poor public speaker ("proszę panią!"), and with four debates, any mistake of his will be magnified across social media by all the challengers.

Another huge mistake made this evening by Żalek of Gowin's mob, who made the statement that "LGBT are not people". This is the kind of stuff that alienates the centre ground, and it's remarkable that no-one from PiS looked at the reaction to the last anti-LGBT stuff.

IMO, one thing to watch will be Bosak's score in the Polish Bible Belt. He's been hammering Duda on his poor conservative record, and if there's movement from Duda to Bosak, it could cost Duda dearly in the 2nd round. No evidence of it happening so far, but there's still 16 days...

Study / School meals in Poland [145]

You know, I've taught in three schools, and every time, I notice that it's badly implemented. I keep trying to convince colleagues that the deal should be that the fruit/veggies should be offered after the first break, so they get used to fruit/veggies as a snack. Will they listen? Nope. :(

Right now, despite my best efforts, what happens is that they're given the fruit/veggies at lunchtime.

Study / School meals in Poland [145]


About the Polish one - what worries me is the lack of fresh fruit and veggies again. Some of those drinks are also quite strange, especially in the morning - what's wrong with plain water? I also have doubts about those afternoon 'meals' - why are they doing so many blended drinks when a piece of fruit would do the same job?

The English ones: not particularly happy with them as well. There's cake/sweet stuff daily, while I'm really unimpressed with the idea of serving up lasagne to small kids. There's also a lot of bread there - and we all know how chemical British bread is.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll:

Duda: 41.17%
Trzaskowski: 28.14%
Hołownia: 14%
Biedroń: 5.22%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 4.99%
Bosak: 4.97%

Duda appears to be pulling votes back from Bosak to stabilise at 40-41%, while Trzaskowski is stabilising around the 28-29% mark.

There was a monumental fuckup by TVP too, as they've broadcast racist rubbish about the huge K-pop group BTS. Young people are mad and upset, and it might just have politicised an entire group that was previously apathetic.

And something more: Jacek Wilk from Konfederacja on the radio said that in the 2nd round, voters need to bite their teeth and vote for Trzaskowski in order to get rid of populists.

He made it clear that he opposes the PiS dictatorship, and that Trzaskowski is the only option to break it if Bosak doesn't get into the 2nd round.

It's becoming very clear that Konfederacja won't endorse anyone in the 2nd round, and that Duda's latest move has gone down badly among Konfederacja's supporters.

There are comments that for Konfederacja, supporting Trzaskowski could be a way to bring down PiS, thus a new election where they could be expected to be in a position to form a goverment with PiS.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Except polling consistently shows that around 20-25% will go to Duda, around 30% to Trzaskowski and the rest won't vote.

Why? You'll have to ask them, but there's very clear evidence that some Konfederacja supporters were unhappy with Duda singling out LGBT people, and even Bosak has made it repeatedly clear that he has no issue with them as taxpayers and citizens.

There's also the point that Trzaskowski will act as a brake on PiS.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Bosak's voters won't vote for Duda en masse in the second round, so you can rule that theory out.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Just catching up on the day's politics, and Duda is getting hammered by Bosak for being a fake conservative. But more importantly, Bosak turned up in Kraków at the Corpus Christi procession. He's attacking małopolska strongly over the next few days, and you have to wonder if Duda has anything to respond with, especially given that Duda needs to worry about other areas too.

I don't think Bosak is an intellectual, but let's not pretend otherwise: Bosak is very clearly and decidedly putting forward an image of a true conservative. The only question here is whether right wing voters want actual conservative ideals and actions, or if they want pseudo-PiS style conservatism where it's all words and no action.