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Stock Market Talk 2020+


cms neuf 1 | 1,852
21 Apr 2020 #31
One thing I would say Johnny is that for those of us who are doing business in Eastern Europe, that tends to provide all the risk we need - we have the zloty, forint, lei etc to deal with, crazy governments, corruption, unfair competition and courts that are slow and rigged. When I am lucky enough to make a profit in that environment I don't want to then double my risk by investing it in Tesla.

So my US investments tend to be too conservative - hilariously I turned down a brokers tip on Abbott Labs in Jan because I had never heard of it. Guess who is closest to a mass produced testing product ? My US stocks are up and down but I always go for things with lots of customers, market leading position and good dividends - coke, Microsoft, JP Morgan, Starbucks etc. I'm never going to get great profits and will always underperform a growth market.
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
21 Apr 2020 #32
that tends to provide all the risk we need -

Every investment you or I make is a risk.
Sometimes you get the bear and sometimes the bear gets you.
If there were any guarantees when making an investment we would all be millionaires like our Senators & Congressmen.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
21 Apr 2020 #33
NOW the tricky part, when do you dump them and move onto the next bargain ?

It's an interesting and difficult question. They're blue chip stocks that are also de-facto monopolies, so they'll be reliable for many years to come. On the other hand, do I really want to hold onto them and keep track of what they're doing? For what it's worth, PKNOrlen will take over one of the biggest energy companies in Poland, so it could be a very reliable stock for years to come.

I also use trading charts delph, do you have companies that sell trading charts in Poland ?

Sure, I get access to...5? daily through my banking brokerage, but I don't really use them - I prefer to use bankier.pl to get an idea of what's going on. In general, I'm much more of a 'hold for the long term' type if the stock remains at a higher price than I paid. I understand what you're doing with the selling short and so on, but it's rather not for me.
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
21 Apr 2020 #34
, do I really want to hold onto them and keep track of what they're doing?

I have a couple of blue chip like AT&T that I check maybe every three months or so.
The dividends from them just keeps re investing in themselves and occasionally they go up and seldom go down much.
They pay much more interest than a bank does so a good place to park your money for long term.

selling short and so on, but it's rather not for me.

Me neither delph as that is really throwing the dice best left for professional brokers.

PKNOrlen will take over one of the biggest energy companies in Poland

I would not hesitate to have that for my main blue chip stock if I were young and Polish.

Sure, I get access to...5? daily through my banking brokerage

Those free ones give you some guidance and are good learning tools.
Mine is put together by some of the best brokers in the country that are educated on log rhythms, option strategies, flow charts, spreads, futures, etc.

They put all their knowledge together and put together these trading charts for most all the stocks out there.
It cost me about $5k a year for these charts but is well worth it.
Like anything, the more you play with it the better you get at it but it does take some of your time to make money.

That's why I am on my computer so much while just squeaking out a living.
Today the market is tanking because this is the first time in history that oil prices have gone negative.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
22 Apr 2020 #35
I would not hesitate to have that for my main blue chip stock if I were young and Polish.

There's not much choice here in terms of blue chip stocks - PKNOrlen, PGNiG and that's it. The other companies, like the big 4 energy companies or the mining companies are a mess, because they often have to support unprofitable political projects. I'd possibly consider PZU (an insurance company with significant interests abroad), but their funds are often misused.

The problem is that most of the big companies on the stock exchange are either government-controlled (which is good for dividends, but bad in terms of actual management) or heavily reliant on government contracts.

In short, we can only be jealous of how the US markets operate in comparison.

Today the market is tanking because this is the first time in history that oil prices have gone negative.

This is a seriously strange situation, isn't it?

Nice intervention by Trump though - we know it's only rhetoric, but threatening to bring down Iranian ships was exactly what the market needed.
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
22 Apr 2020 #36
This is a seriously strange situation, isn't it?

Yes it was delph and oil prices immediately rebounded to $20 a barrel today after he announced that. lol
The U.S. stock market is way up today. :-)
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
29 Apr 2020 #37
The Dow is up 600 and the Nasdaq is up 300 today so far.

So if you would have jumped on say 500 shares of DT@ $18

DT Energy just his $30.49 up $12 a share since I bought it five weeks ago.
Hold that one as it has lots of room to go up yet.

My next investment was last Friday when I bought 300 shares of PLMR at $56 per share.

I just sold my PLMR for $59.14 and took my $900 profit.
I suggest you do the same if you bought any.
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
30 Apr 2020 #38
I just sold my PLMR for $59.14 and took my $900 profit.

Today at noon it was down to $57.23.
That saved me $575 to pull the trigger yesterday instead of waiting until today for said loss.
I feel like such a genius sometimes. :-)
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
8 May 2020 #39
DT hit $32 a share yesterday.......up $14 a share in six weeks.
Did anyone else get in on it ?
Cargo pants 2 | 827
8 May 2020 #40
Did anyone else get in on it ?

Are you seriously expecting people with teachers salary in Poland can do that,they have problems buying fresh fruit for there family with failed business ventures(not one but multiple).
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
18 May 2020 #41
DT hit $32 a share yesterday .......up $14 a share in six weeks.

Remember I bought it at $18 on March 21st. ?
DT is closing in on $35 a share this morning (May 18th two months later) up $17 + a share.
SO when it hits $36 a share I will have doubled my money and sell half and then be playing with their money.
Last week on May 13th I bought 100 share of NVDA at $311 a share.
Today May 18th it just hit $352 a share.
This is my next new throw of the dice in the Wall Street Casino.
Keep an eye on this one Cargo.
One of these days my luck is going to run out so you can all mock my trading skills.
Nothing good ever lasts.
Joker 2 | 1,717
18 May 2020 #42
Remember I bought it at $18 on March 21st. ?

My wife decided to give it a try and bought some stocks at the end of March. She just told me, she made over $3000 already.

I wish, I would have done it too.. Microsoft and Uber have been the best so far.
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
18 May 2020 #43
You have to have different strategies for different stocks.
Like this one I just bought last week NVDA is a long term stock strategy as I think it will pay me more than a C.D. in a bank over time like my AT&T.

Now the day trading is completely different approach.
If I buy something for short term and it drops below say 7% I sell and move on.
I hope your wife does well Joker.
Tell her not to be a nervous nelly and panic as once this economy opens back up the market is going to go nuts for those have money to invest or have invested already.

I have waited for an opportunity like this all my life.
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
18 May 2020 #44
NVDA is a long term stock strategy

I know the stock Johnny, and it's an interesting bet. They're a well run company, they have a lot of exciting things that will come online down the line, and they've got a very very strong brand with immense brand recognition among consumers.

There's only one real threat to them - AMD - but they historically have gone through boom and bust cycles with technology, like a few years back, they were very much #2 on the market. Now they're doing well again, but I doubt they can challenge Nvidia's dominance in graphics.
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
19 May 2020 #45
I doubt they can challenge Nvidia's dominance in graphics.

I think you may be correct.
AMD is more semi conductors.
Nvidia expanded its presence in the gaming industry (graphics) with its handheld Shield Portable, Shield Tablet, and Shield Android TV.
NVDA earnings report comes out Thursday which may kill me or make me look like a genius.
I already missed out on the big run as I could have bought NADA May 1st for about $280 a share.
Now three weeks later it is at $350. (owning a 100 shares would have made you $7000 in those three weeks)
AMD is a good company but what I have read about them they will be facing some headwinds this year to hold them back.
I could be wrong so lets see for the fun of it who buys who dinner and a bottle of wine older then our grandmothers delph.

You hypothetically buy 100 shares of AMD at it's todays price of $55 a share.
I have bought 100 shares of NVDA at todays price of $350 a share.
Let see.....say in six months from now which one of us made the most. (Throw them dice) lol
May the shrewdest of us win.
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
19 May 2020 #46
All right delph ........that was a sucker bet.
I have to spot you 7 times so we have equal investments.
A 100 shares of AMD was at $50+ a share so times seven = $35,000.
A 100 shares of NVDA was $350+ a share so that already = $35,000 investment.
There now we each have hypothetically invested $35k.
So far today my investment of NVDA is up almost $10 a share or $1000.
Your AMD is up about 65 cents a share x 7 = $4.55 up almost $455.
This could all change instantly at any moment so I don't get to excited.
A Day Trader would cash out and take their $1000 profit.
My DT is just shy of $36 a share today which is double what I paid for it.
When it hits that magic $36 I sell half and play on their money for the next year for free collecting the dividends.
Work work work...............

DT just hit $37 (that I bought for $18) so I sold half (250 shares) and am now playing on their money.
Next.............
Doesn't anyone here play the market besides me ?
delphiandomine 88 | 18,858
19 May 2020 #47
This could all change instantly at any moment so I don't get to excited.

NVDA should go up quite a lot, the sales figures should have been remarkably strong, and esports can only grow in strength with the problems associated with normal sports right now. I wouldn't have said it 5 years ago, but I think they're almost certainly going to be a blue chip stock for the long term now.

AMD is an interesting bet, because their Ryzen processors are astonishingly good - an interesting article here for you: anandtech.com/show/15787/amd-ryzen-5-3600-review-amazons-best-selling-cpu - and it helps that Intel have had serious problems with their roadmap/chip performance.

Meanwhile, Polish stocks are in an absolute mess. The government is badly handling the management of many of the biggest state-controlled companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange - there's a very good article here that you can run through Google Translate: innpoland.pl/159623,demontaz-polskiej-gieldy-zaczal-sie-od-skoku-na-ofe - imagine that one of the largest energy companies here is valued at only 0.1 of the book value?
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
19 May 2020 #48
Thanks delph, that was very thoughtful of you.
Will check it out tonight with my bowl of ice cream.
Tlum 10 | 156
20 May 2020 #49
SPX500 double top; cash your money now and come back after the 4%-7% index correction (individual stocks could go down more).
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
21 May 2020 #50
I don't see a double top in the S&P index.
However, our S&P index has steadily been moving higher for the past two months, going from 2200 to 2970.
That's a 34% increase without stopping for a pause.
There is a zone of resistance hanging just above where we are now, at about 2980.
Prices often stall when they get near resistance.
So yes, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pull back.
Could even be 12-13%, at the worst.
And that could be caused by a second spike in virus cases once states begin to open up.
But, right now, the trend is up and I don't change my strategy until the market actually begins to move in one direction or the other.

Keep in mind that the market has been extremely volatile.
Some days the S&P has moved 2 or 2.5% in just one day.
So, a 4-7% correction isn't really that unusual.
Tlum 10 | 156
21 May 2020 #51
On a daily chart, first top on May 18, second on May 20.

I'd be very careful investing in the US stock market until after the elections. It is obvious that China, the mass-media, most US corporations (Google, Facebook that face anti-trust from Trump's cabinet), WHO, and the US deep-state have been working together since Feb 2020 to collapse the US economy through the "virus" so that Trump is not re-elected. It appears to work very well (check the US voter sentiment and polls). My prediction is that between June and Sep the next market crash could be here to reach their ultimate goal, ie. removing Trump. Trump trusts the Fed but they could back-stab him; once they do (all they could do is to stop buying debt for a couple of weeks), it would be the final nail to the stock-market coffin by November.
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
21 May 2020 #52
That all sounds very logical.
Your double top May 18 and May 20th really isn't a double top though.
Maybe you are talking about the S&P, very short term.
On Monday this week the index hit 2980 then down to 2910 on Tuesday.
Then yesterday back to 2980.
So there were two little peaks, but that usually wouldn't be considered a double top.
Double tops, or bottoms, generally have one or two months in between.
Ziemowit 13 | 4,269
26 May 2020 #53
S&P index has steadily been moving higher for the past two months, going from 2200 to 2970.

Some days the S&P has moved 2 or 2.5% in just one day.

As I can see, it is now 3013,97 (+1,97 % on yesterday). But it is a way down from its 52-week high yet.
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
27 May 2020 #54
@Ziemowit
I have decided to sell all my stocks except for four of the blue chips that have nice dividends.
I bought all four of them from the bargain basement so will do very well on them when the market comes back.
The rest will be sold by the end of this week.
I bought a very nice fishing boat and plan on spending as much time on it as I can this winter Ziemowit.
Trading stocks to make money takes a lot of time and energy.
(and coming here between trades every day has become a waste of time management also)
I have made enough money in my life and now it's time to enjoy it as the time part is running out on me.
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
27 May 2020 #55
I've had a couple of people contact me about my DT and NVDA stocks.
YES, I sold both of them this last Tuesday along with several others.
I am burnt out on day trading and need a break.
Time for some French Vanilla ice cream and a nap.
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
29 Jun 2020 #56
I stuck my neck out and suggest you buy Tesla a couple of years ago and got laughed at.

If you would have listened and taken my advise you could retire now in Poland modestly.

There is your second tip and lesson on investing in the market, the first when I suggested everyone to buy TESLA.

I bought 200 shares of their stock back in March 2017 at $243 per share. (TSLA)

(delph & I I posted the following March of 2017)

I still believe that Tesla stock could hit $1000 per share in three or four years.

Looks like Tesla are finished. The stock is at $260 and in freefall

I tried to tell you guys now didn't I........three years later Tesla stock just hit a $1000 a share. July 2020.
"If" I would not have listened to delph and would have held on to my 200 shares for the last three years I would have made $150,000 on it.

Delph......You're Fired !
dolnoslask 6 | 3,539
29 Jun 2020 #57
.three years later Tesla stock

Yup I got some, and yup you told em wot to buy but the BBC llllllloooooooosers didn't listen cos they think they smart and are still flat broke lllllooooosssssers
Lazarus 1 | 114
29 Jun 2020 #58
Tesla stock just hit a $1000 a share. July 2020.

LOL! You don't even know what month this is.

I would have made $150,000 on it.

If only you had had the $243 to buy just one share back then.
OP johnny reb 28 | 5,248
29 Jun 2020 #59
Actually I bought 200 shares back if you were to go back and read the electric car thread Mr. Jealous.
You are eaten up with jealousy to think I have $50k to invest in one stock and your bitterness shows.
If you wouldn't have pis sed yours all up on the wall from guzzling beer you could be living much better then you are living in that shelter for the homeless.
Lazarus 1 | 114
29 Jun 2020 #60
Yup I got some

Is fantasy stock trading more fun than fantasy football? A month after the Superbowl I had Barkley and Elliott as my backs and Adams and Hopkins as my wideouts


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