and wrong 75% of the time
Being right 25% of the time is actually not bad at all.
If we talk about economics or meteorology - then 25% is already decent.
If we talk about venture capital investing, then being right 25% of the time would make you one of the richest people in the world - in short order.
If we are discussing drug discovery, then a 25% hit chance would be a miracle for any pharmaceutical company.
What's most important, is that the upside from my 25% of truths, must be higher than the downside from believing in my 75% of falsehoods.