@PolAmKrakow Hyperinflation is usually considered to be when it reaches 50% per month; we are a long way from that. Nevertheless, PiS themselves warned that it may reach 10%. IT's already the highest among the developed countries in Europe.
The taxation proposed in the Polish Deal crushes the middle class and does next.to.nothing to the very wealthy, while not giving much to the poor.
This is largely the plan. The poor are not good at complaining, the middle class are up to their eyes in debt anyway and the wealthy are the ones they fear.
the current basic interest rate by NBP is 1.25 per cent: hardly an obstacle for those wanting to get credit - but I concur that the 85 thousand threshold for additonal tax is quite low - you maybe right about squeezing the middle class - we'll see how it turns out
@gumishu In theory to you and I 1.25 is nothing really. To banks who were at .5 percent it is a big jump in what money will cost them. And in order to maintain profit margin a one million loan just went up about 10K in initial cost, and the commission for the loan also climbed. With commercial loans in the tens and hundreds of millions that adds up quickly and the risk also adds up from and insurance underwriting view of the loan which cuts off a lot of commercial money. This has a similar impact on mortgages.
Credit is market reactionary, and that finance move was a big one.
The income tax and the Polish Deal will in its current state be soul crushing. When you look at how commercial loans are done for small business, those people making more than 85K are in the no mans land. They make just enough to have a nicer life, and now make too much for tax purposes, and their income actually becomes less attractive to lenders because they are not taking home as much of it.
The interest rate hike is a short term bet a hedge if you will. And it is not working, the zloty is closing in on 4 to 1 USD again already. The pull back did not even last a day.
I have already stated in this thread that NBP probably doesn't seriously raise interest rates because of the concern about people with mortgage (I may be wrong though)
the zloty is closing in on 4 to 1 USD again already
I blame the inflation discrepancy between zloty and the dollar for this - just my not very informed guess
Hyperinflation is usually considered to be when it reaches 50% per month;
I bet you can't back that up with a credible source can you ? The truth is there is no exact percentage where inflation turns from "ordinary Inflation" to "Hyperinflation".
Well gas for my truck has tripled and the cost of a steak has doubled since biden took office 10 months ago. Then biden goes to a Green meeting (and falls asleep) where 400 jets carried world leaders to meet on saving the planet from carbon.
@gumishu You may be right. No one knows what the NBP is thinking with this move. Lending metrics go to the policy of the banks making the lending decisions. Credit tightens automatically when rates go up that quickly by that much.
@johnny reb Even if trump was re-elected, the US would be in much the same position. This is a supply chain issue in the US as much as it is a policy issue. With ships stuck out in the bay in California for a month with cargo can not get in, and trucks can not move, prices start climbing quickly. This all began before Trump left office. The product of that beginning is in Bidens lap now.
To all who claim that high inflation is not PiS` fault. You are wrong. Of course it is. Who is in power now? PiS. When 2008 crisis struck, everybody blamed the ruling government then. So, to keep the balance, we will blame PiS government for everything bad that is happening today.
To all who claim that high inflation is not PiS` fault
You are so naive. Inflation is happening across the world irrespective of.the government in power. It is how those governments deal with It that matters. You are so.biased that you blame your government before even thinking. Grow up!
Sad to have to repeat that inflation here is the highest among the developed countries in Europe. Ukraine and Belarus are worse, however are they really the comparison that Poland deserves?
tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europe The image, btw, is of the very bottom of the table
So Poland's government is dealing with it by inflationary taxes, inflationary supply restrictions and changing the way its measured to make it look better
Going Green ain't cheap and WE will end up paying for it in inflation. Attacking the "mindless forces of the market" and power structures of capitalism are not bad things to do...but why must we decarbonize ? Reregulating the too big to fail banks is long overdue, but why do so many assume that a "Green New Deal" won't just empower those same forces that have run havoc upon the world for the past 50 years and just cause more death and starvation than has already been suffered under Globalization ?
Why is everyone here treating inflation like another epidemic? Inflation does not just happen. It's caused by men (as in mankind) and can be stopped by men. Both have consequences and the only question worth answering is who benefits from it and how.
No, darling, the inflation in Poland is too high because PIS-controlled national bank didn`t react in time a few months or even, as I am reading now, a year ago. It is natural to all experts. And we know you aren`t one. :):):)
You are so.biased
It is obvious you don`t know what you are talking about. Your knowledge of Poland is too little to allow you to be a participant in such discussions, my poor darling. :):)
@johnny reb We can blame the supply chain which around the world is broken. Do a little research on that and you will find it is not a simple fix, its going to get worse for the next few months unless drastic measures are taken. Cost in Poland have been on a very sharp increase for more than a year, some prices have doubled. Supply chain is a direct result of how lockdowns were implemented, and every government is responsible. Someone needs to only look at Long Beach California to see how absolutely stupid these shipping delays are. More than 150 cargo shipping boats sitting in the bay, and hundreds of trucks lined up for up to 12 hours each to pick up a container. Idle time is wasted money, and wasted money is raising prices.
PiS though is enjoying record profits on gasoline sales for nearly two years at the expense of the people. This is not supply chain, this is price gouging. Over 6 pln per liter today to fill up. 10% increase in the last 90 days. While just a little more of a rise than inflation, the fact that these prices did not fall at all when oil was at record lows and now is rising is simply the government profiting off its people through state owned gas companies. 6 billion in profit this year, and that 6 billion from gas alone would have done much more good for the recovery in the hands of people who would be spending it on local business.
I have been saying this over and over and it will be a hell of a lot longer than a few months. America is experiencing the same inflation that Poland is and will.
PiS though is enjoying record profits on gasoline sales
Does PiS own the gas companies in Poland ? Michigan has a .19 cent tax per gallon.
@johnny reb Yes. Orlen and Lotos are state owned corporations, they do their own refining and have the largest network for sales and distribution. Independent companies like BP and Mobil are less than 20% of gasoline sales and distribution. 6 billion in profits this year is serious money. When you look at what the PiS appointee's are being paid to run these companies and how many have multiple seats collecting multiple salaries on multiple boards of directors, then you start to get the croneyism picture.
And they have what is typical in state owned crony run industries - high prices, bad service and awful food. I make it a point to avoid them but its hard on the autostrada
@johnny reb When people have three or four board appointments due to their relationship with the PM, Pres, or JK, then yes, its more than fair to blame PiS. Trump wouldnt have ever even attempted something like this, even Biden isn't that stupid. They are fleecing the country and real people are paying for it. Gas to me at 4 pln or 10 pln per liter doesn't matter. But to most people gas at 4 pln per liter would have saved them at least 100 pln per week and that puts an awful lot of food on the table. This is a real problem that effects PiS supporters more than anyone. This is nothing but paying the right hand while stealing more from the left.
It seems that you have your mind made up that you disagree with PiS. To me it seems like PiS was elected by the majority of Poles. And since elections are not about the best man and that they are about the lesser of two evils, PiS reins. The next election in Poland will tell us if you are right about what the Polish people want. Do you have your Polish citizenship or do you just speak for the Polish people ?
Actually just waiting for passport pickup date. Citizenship confirmed thanks for asking. That doesn't mean I will be staying for much more of this though.
It has nothing to do with PiS or PO or any other set of initials. It has everything to do with bad fiscal policy, bad fiscal management and not thinking things through completely.
The Polish Deal is a great idea. Really great idea. But PiS is going to pi$$ all over it because they don't know how to pay for it without killing the middle class and local government incomes. These are facts supported by many independent analysis.
You want to argue party, I argue policy and there is a big difference. The policy in poland for economics is terrible.
To me it seems like PiS was elected by the majority of Poles.
No, it wasn`t. By 43% with 62% turn out. You can easily count it was far from majority.
If it had been true majority, I would keep my mouth shut today. But as it wasn`t, I bash PiS here and everywhere else with all my might. :):):) With God`s and Mary`s help, we shall defeat those corrupt gangsters in next elections.
If there was only 62% turn out then the people deserve what they got. Here in America we had a 110% turnout with even the dead turning out to vote for slow joe.
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