Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 22

Come on. It is the same fake French alliance that doesn't contribute to Poland at all. Signed by the most trashiest leader in Poland, possible ginger F himself. That says volumes.
Besides, exotic alliances with former empires like France and Britain are rather secondary; we can make good deals with them like with anyone else, but forging close alliances and cooperation is not very favorable for Poland.
I have already told you which countries we should focus on. Also, Poland should get it priority right. Like growing our economy, and our capabilities, not to be dependent on the goodwill of strangers.

Trump, with his ego, thinks that he is alluring and clever enough to change the dynamics here. Also, he compares the US power with Russia's power and correctly assumes that Putin should bow and submit.
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Whenever I curse our trashy leader Tusk, I laugh at our Russian posters here; they must experience some dissociation from reality for that moment, and after three to four seconds of brain freeze, they forget they ever saw it. lol

The negotiations are suspended. Russian side says temporarily, Ukrainians say conclusively. They were enraged by Russia's extreme demands, which included a pullout of Ukrainian forces from the territory of the four regions annexed into Russia as a precondition for a ceasefire.

The Turks say both delegations are still at the palace.

Trump said aboard Air Force One that he thinks he needs to give Putin a call, and arrange a meeting. Peskov, Putin's spokesman, confirmed that a meeting between the US and Russian presidents would have an all-important effect. However, for such a call to happen, it's first necessary to complete a long process of preparation - where expert groups from both the US and Russia would draft a practical agenda.

A funny side note - Ukrainians used a translator to talk to the Russians. The leader of the Ukrainian delegation, Minister of Defense Rustem Umerov, is an ethnic Tatar that didn't speak Ukrainian until two years ago. He probably needs a translation of what he had just said himself, so it's just as well they brought a translator.

Surprised they didn't decide to speak English to our team. That would be most "European" and "North Atltantic" of them.

I guess the US needs to send to Ukraine more munitions, considerably more.

I know. But the French could supply us with nukes--it would be much faster than developing them ourselves, and it would be a game changer for Poland.


Nah, our PF Russians understand Poles well enough. They are not your average wild Asians.


Can't blame them really. Abandoning the existing defensive lines would be suicidal--in case of resuming of hostilities they would be in a hopeless position (no time to build anything comparable in a short period of time).


Well, I usually speak English when I'm in Czechia even though our languages are probably as similar as Ukrainian and Russian are. It puts me and my Czech interlocutor on equal footing, and is better than me butchering Czech or the other guy butchering Polish.

Does it have them?

They will not. You are dreaming. Unless you have half of Africa with gold mines and ores as a tradeoff. French are like that - *****.
Britain or even the US would supply us with nukes before the French.
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Really? I bet their mind stop for a moment.
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It does. It is a question of will, not resources and capabilities. Even if it doesn't have it ready at the moment it won't take long to make it.

That's one thing - and a super important one at that, but I think there's more.

Exiting Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhye completely means losing a further massive amount of population, and critically important industry.

The city of Kherson is 300K people, and Zaporozhye is 700-800K. Kherson is an important port city, and the home of Ukrainian shipbuilding. Zaporozhye is Europe's largest city (by territory), and a century old industrial hub - where everything from transformers to turbines is produced.

In all three years of this war, we have not gained conclusive control of such a large city. We controlled Kherson for about 6-7 months, before we got ejected to the other side of the river. The other "large" cities we gained control of between 2022 and 2025 are Melitopol, Mariupol, Berdyansk, Tokmak - but they are not in the same category.

Donetsk (million plus people) and Luhansk (400k) and Sevastopol (550K) were all gained 10 years ago.

So if Zelensky simply gives away two large cities, and hundreds of smaller settlements, I think the Ukrainians will eat him alive. The situation on the front has to become much more threatening, before the Ukranian people would begin to view such a deal as potentially to their advantage.

Maybe the situation is already extremely bad - and this is just not being communicated transparently to the population. Maybe, the loss of these additional territories is a quite real possibility, and this is why Zelensky has in the end flown to Turkey - after years of promising never to talk to Russia.

In the past few days Russian forces have seized large areas in the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Kupyansk directions. What took approximately a week last fall, is being done in a day.

Now 5km from Pokrovsk ?

Big whoop

So why, in your opinion, is the Russian delegation making such unrealistic demands? They are dooming the peace talks to failure from the very beginning, so why start them at all?

I think:

1) It was important to go, because delaying further risked Trump getting annoyed in an unpredictable way.

2) It doesn't matter what was actually discussed, it's important that a Russian and Ukrainian delegation sat down for the first time in three years. Trump can congratulate himself over this achievement.

3) Maximalist demands were presented, because it was expected that Ukraine will refuse to entertain them. This buys several more weeks of time. Fundamentally, a ceasefire is not to our advantage at this time.

4) We know at least from Steve Witkoff, that there are people within the Trump administration that sympathize with the Russian demands. Trump himself has repeatedly said that "Zelensky risks losing the entire country if he doesn't play ball."

5) We got Trump hooked on the idea that things won't work without his personal involvement, and immediately Peskov says yes it's a tremendous idea, but will take time to prepare. Again - weeks, potentially months of time bought.

Why are these weeks, months, so important? On a simple level - each week (at current rates), represents 200-300 square kilometers of territory that we will never give back to the Ukrainians. So in this way, a few weeks might mean several dozen more villages, or much more comfortable front lines for future defense (either shortened, or on favorable terrain).

Bigger picture - these weeks and months buy time to make a further and more accurate evaluation of the degree to which Ukraine has been weakened. So far, they have been cruising on the remnants of the last large package authorized by Biden in the fall. Recently, Trump approved the transfer from Germany of 100 PATRIOT missiles and some other materiel, but this was judged by the Russian side as a sort of homeopathic dose. Most predictions are that by summer, Ukraine will begin to acutely feel the shortage of US aid.

If we can drag this thing out to the summer, maybe the Ukrainians will truly begin to crumble - and then the idea of giving up the entirety of the four regions will not seem so outrageous to them.

But while we drag this thing out, it's important to keep Trump engaged, and the Europeans sidelined.

There are many arguments for why Ukraine won't "crumble", even without American aid. They are just... not very convincing.

Europe will need several more years, or even close to a decade, to arrive at a place where it can fully "close" Ukraine's demands.

To my mind, weapon stockpiles and intelligence sharing, is not nearly as important as what is happening within Ukrainian society. They are exhausted, they are eating each other, and eating the government. The population's patience with representatives of the territorial recruitment centers has reached zero. In most Ukrainian villages, it is impossible to find a military age male during daytime.

People are fed up with the inequalities that the war produces daily. The most popular refrain, is that they want to see all the cops, judges, recruiters, and every other sort of bureaucrat - sent to the front. People see that the sons of parliamentarians and millionaires do not serve, and have no issues travel into the Schengen Zone. People are tired of reading about corruption scandals with weapons procurement - where hundreds of thousands of defective shells are delivered to soldiers, who as a result are not able to reply to Russian fires.

I think Zelensky feels this, as a politician. His maximalist position of "no talks until a final victory" just doesn't fly anymore. People want peace, but a just peace. Giving up territory that they had not lost - that's not seen as just, but rather like a Russian bluff. It's the job of the Russian military then, to show them that this is the inevitable destination to which this train is headed.

russians absolutely should be furious and should demand that Solovyov's gender fluid prostitute son be sent to the front! Isn't that what you meant?


Killing Ukrainians... nothing makes russians happier. I've yet to see any convincing counter evidence....

So you are the adult in this nuthouse...Good to know...


He also has a map with a place for two signatures: Trump's and his own.


And you must be that Polish retard Iron is embarrassed about.

Sorry, Iron, but I lost all credibility here so you are the antidote.

That's not true. See the video...



Russians were very happy killing Germans at Stalingrad.

There is a simple rule you can follow to stay alive: Get the fvck out of Russia when they ask you to leave.

4,000,000 Germans ignored it and never came home.

Well, now it's clear why the negotiations ended after just two hours. Our Russian guys went "full Stalin" on the Ukrainians. Told them if you don't give up 4 regions now, next time it will be 6. Also told them we are ready to war forever.

Ollie Carrol, the Economist's Ukraine correspondent, reports:

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Bobko, you just made me smile...I love it...full Stalin...priceless...


That progression is not linear or exponential but it sure is there to consider, Mr. Z.

First, Russia wanted only one: Crimea. You said no because some British wh*re told you to say it

Now it is 1 + 4

Soon: 1 + 6

My advice: sign on 1 + 4 and take the first flight out to America before the locals will ceausescu you and your lovely wife.

@Novichok

Am a bit confused by what Oliver wrote about Medinsky's words about Great Britain and France financing Russia during the Great Northern War.

Maybe he misunderstood something, but as far as I know this journalist speaks Russian and Ukrainian fluently.

Now it's Ukraine who is being financed by Great Britain and France, so I fail to see the logic in this argument. Doesn't that mean that Ukraine is in the position that Russia was when it beat the Swedes?

Also I can't believe Medinsky actually issued the threat that people sitting at the table will lose loved ones.

Seems like such a quiet and nerdy fellow... but then opens his mouth and it's Pinochet.

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I know that you elevated the art of faking uncertainty to a new level few of us can match so I will not try to go where you shine.

I am a simple guy with two guns and Amendments. When some azzhole breaks into my house, I will not ask him about his childhood and unhappy marriage. I will just pull the trigger and call 911.

Russia is in exactly the same situation and, in my opinion, free to kill as many as it takes. Later, after the bodies are all removed, you can clean or change the carpet.

How do you like my analogy...

Looking for retards, Rysiek? Turn on the TV - there's a chance you will see your orange-skinned president on it.


It doesn't sound "full Stalin" to me, more like full time mafia loan sharks. However, they are not in position to make such demands, at least not yet. Blackmailing Moldova like this might make sense but Ukraine is not Moldova - they can still fight back, and they're not alone. If the French are serious about not being sidelined and if they want Europe to be a respectable player, they will provide us with a lot of nukes; and then some much needed order will be restored in the Universe.


Erm... you're losing it, Ryszardzie. It is Russia who broke into Ukraine's house. So much for your brilliant analogy.

...or go to PF...


The owners of the house donated it to Russia...so Russia has the deed now.

Sorry...You need an update...

... or even better, look into the mirror.

I did and saw a genious who is never wrong. See Ukraine, trans freaks, tariffs, NATO...the list is endless...

Perhaps, but they may know something we do not. It doesn't appear that way, however.

I think what they "know", is that we have much more endurance than Ukraine. Ukraine after a few more years of war, will become a true failed state. No amount of reconstruction or European integration will reverse that decline.

This year their budget is in good shape, through almost $45 billion of direct budgetary support from allies. Next year there is already a forecast $15B deficit, and the year after it is triple (if European don't keep funding the budget directly).

I think this threat that "we can outlast you" - is a very effective one. The longer the war goes, the more non linear the front movements will be.

So the Stalinites acted like Stalin.... quelle surprise!

We very well might do that. Expensive, yes, but still cheaper than having war on our territory.


There's too many variables though, so it's impossible to make any credible long-term predictions. So, basically, your delegation is bluffing. In my opinion it's way too early for such bluff, but perhaps they do know something we don't.

Understand - not military aid, but direct budgetary support. You are paying the pensions of Ukraine's seniors, and the salaries of their teachers, cops, and doctors.

You are paying for subsidies, aimed at keeping electrical and gas prices affordable for the population.

Even now, in the midst of full on war, Zelensky is spending billions on roads and bridges (he gets a lot of sh*t for this). You are paying for this too.

None of this directly helps the front. It just keeps Ukraine afloat.

I think if the average cash-strapped European voter understood that he is not sending a Kalashnikov to Ukraine, but instead cash that ensures that Ukrainians continue to enjoy the cheapest electricity in Europe - he would not be happy.

European governments are doing a good job at keeping this information with a low profile.

The difference between Russians and Germans is that Russians are honest.

They openly admit that Stalin was evil and a great patriot who won WW2 at the same time.

Germans are so fvcking scared that you would have to burn them alive to extract that Hitler was a German patriot and did many good things for Germany.

The weiderst shlt is that it was me, a Pole by birth, who made this point here...I wouldn't dare make it in Germany because Germany, stupidly, went half-Stalin with its freedom of speech.

When you do shlt KGB and Gestapo would be proud of - don't...

because of violent psychotic russians!!!!!

just own up to it.... russians are never happy, they only live to make others miserable.... the Western Man's Burden.... (are we sure that wasn't written about russia?)

No problem. We're farting cash.

We are not, unfortunately, farting weapons and ammo, not just yet. I'd say it's about time to switch - at least partially - to war production mode. If Europe does that, the rest of the world can stock up on diapers. We are a giant who needs to wake up and stop being pushed around and "sidelined" by a country with population lower than Java Island.


Hm... Stalin sent his men as liberators, with equality, freedom, brotherhood and truth on their banners. With shiny red stars on their caps and helmets.
Hitler sent his men as murderers, with racial superiority, Lebensraum, Endlösung and Generalplan Ost on their banners. With SS skull and bones on their caps and helmets.

They were both murderers but only one of them was brutally honest about it. These days, however, things are a bit more complicated, I'll give you that.

Who cares about honesty though? Wars are not won by the side that's more honest.