Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 20

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Russia is getting soft. Where is NKVD when you really need them?

There you go.


No, my thinking is that you don't know what RuSSia's plans are right now and what they are going to be in a few years or 10 years or 15 years. I don't know that either. What I do know though is that I'd rather we didn't wait with preparations for another speech made by Putin or his successor, because by that time it may be too late already.


It definitely wasn't a moral decision by the then left-wing post-communist Polish government - it was very pragmatic. They hoped that if Poland helped the US then the US would help Poland in the future if Poland got attacked.


There was a time when Putin didn't seem to mind Ukraine's desire to join NATO (at least judging by his words).

No one knows what will happen with supposed partners as Russia and Ukraine have found. An integrated manufacturing/economic base was not strong enough to prevent war.

The EU was established to prevent wars by integrating production.

Thats why I have believed for a long time that Europe should start the process of disengaging from the US domination of NATO. Europe has the money, technological knowhow and the numbers. It wont be easy but the first step should be restricting arms procurement to European based and owned manufactures. Any Foreign components should be replaced etc. The implications of such a policy for national sovereignty are profound and possibly insurmountable however if Europe can do it with trade then why not with defence?

The US can go down its autarky path if they want it will end in disaster for them.

The only disaster for the US was Europe. Not China. Not the USSR or Japan. Europe.

250,000 American graves in Europe are the evidence.

250k in two world wars that catapulted the US into the global superpower position (and gave them domination over Europe until today).

Americans killed 2-3 times as many of their own in their civil war.

@Torq
It was not those wars that catapulted the US. The US was what catapulted the end to WW2. Lets be clear that without the US men, and US lend lease to Russia and their men, Europe would be speaking German. The fact that it took Pearl Harbor to get the US into the war, after the US provoked Japan by cutting off energy supplies is also over looked. The US helped rebuild Europe and Japan after the war. So its not just 250K men, its a lot more than that. And anyone thinking that Europe will suddenly be out from under the US does not understand the world today. Europe cannot afford to lose the US market, period. Watch how quickly divisions start in Europe as individual countries seek bilateral trade agreements with balanced tariffs.

Everyone here $hitting on the US now because it wants to take care of itself and the soup kitchen for beggars is closing up, really needs to think about what happens next.

I think Torq and Barney are talking past each other, and forgetting some key realities from that former historic context.

The Soviet Union did contemplate aggressive invasions of Western European states - and yet this was all still done from a defensive mindset.

The main enemy - after all - was the United States. The idea of a race to the Atlantic was in denying the United States a bridgehead in Europe, and thus forcing it to a favorable settlement, before it is able to escalate.

The details of this thinking can be found not in any secret archival document, but within Soviet military doctrine. The Soviet school of thinking had always seen offensive operations as a means of ensuring defense.

This meant:

1) Mass mobilization and "Deep Operations" - meaning pushing deep into enemy territory to prevent counterattacks and disrupt force generation.

2) Preemptive tactical nuclear strikes along the entire perimeter - in the case of an imminent NATO attack

3) Again, a rapid occupation of Europe to the Atlantic, leaving the US the only option of Britain as a base for operations. The hope then, is that confronted with the military impossibility of invading Europe by sea, and having lost critical time in the opening stages - the US agrees to sit down for talks.

So for Russians, offense has always been closely tied to defense. Any child with a geography or history book knows this. Our wide open geography, and painful history teach us that it's better to fight the enemy on his land, than on ours.

Bottom line, invasions of Western Europe were defensive in nature - with the goal of denying the United States escalation dominance.

Anyone who wants to study Soviet military doctrine, and see that it always (since the 1920s) viewed offense as a legitimate form of defense can do so freely:

cia.gov/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000499601.pdf

From the CIA document:

"The Soviets also assert, however, that if war is forced upon the Socialist states, their armies should fight it in the most effective manner allowed by available technology. If authorized by political leadership, the Soviet military would attempt to seize the strategic initiative as early as possible, carry the war to the opponents' territory, and destroy the military and political coalition that brought about the war.

This offensive military orientation is driven by the Russian belief that only a strategic offensive offers the possibility of decisively defeating the opponent."

Yes! Thank you. What have I been telling you, Barney? Russians - always on a defensive, even when they invade.


1920, 1939, 1956, 1968 - all defensive campaigns, but the Westerners just don't get it. They're not very bright.


Exactement! :)

While you're at, Bobi, please tell them that Russia will attack NATO because they simply won't believe me.

Oh, and happy PF anniversary, you wild Asian thing!

I don't think so. I really don't.

I think the peak in tensions is past. The moment when nukes were about to fly was probably around fall of 2022 - summer of 2023. Everyone wants to talk now. It will be some longer time before tensions can get ratcheted up back to that level.

If you read more about Soviet military doctrine, you will also understand how Russians understand the reasons for war. The entire recipe and formula is spelled out there. What can start it, who's responsible, how to react, how to end it, etc.

For many of those reasons, Russia likely won't invade a NATO country.

But it takes two to tango. If in the future some Biden returns, and decides it's a good idea to post some NATO divisions in Estonia (a few hours drive from Russia's second largest city) - then maybe there will be a new war.

:(

Ah, yes. Maskirovka. Поня́тно.

--

However, those of us who don't consider Russians to be idiots understand that it would make no sense at all for them to switch their entire economy to war mode, increase military sector production, build huge reserve forces and just stop now, gaining measly 20% of former Ukrainian SSR. No, our opinion of Russian intelligence is much higher, hence we have to warn the world. The world, of course, won't listen to us because we're just stupid Polacks and there will be a huge surprise when another Russian defensive operation starts. Ehhh... życie, kurwa... życie. *sighs*

It would be a third of Germany, or half the UK - if that helps see it in a different light. But a third of Germany, or a half of the UK - that contains more mineral wealth than Germany and the UK combined.


This is a different question. There is certainly a big element of inertia. I already listened to some discussions among Russian economists, regarding the impossibility of rapidly switching off the war machine without causing massive economic problems. The war machine forces its own logic on things, and here you are making of course a very good point.

But the way I see it, is that this is a problem that will need to be addressed. It was necessary to do, because otherwise we would lose this war in Ukraine. It pumped up our muscles enough to convince the Europeans and Americans it was not possible to eject us. It doesn't mean we have to keep feeding this dragon until that point when he eats us all.

It has to be switched off, but gently, carefully.

... or roughly 0.64% of Russia.

Mineral wealth is certainly an important factor, that's true.


Of course. The question is: Moldova gently or the Baltics carefully? Or maybe even Poland gradually?

Anyways, Day of the Oprichnik has just arrived in my mailbox. So, before Velund rolls his tank platoon into my AA battery - because such things simply happen in life (God has sense of humour), I will have something interesting to read.

Take care, Bobi.

*off to enjoy Sorokin's book*

Maybe spend 5 minutes on some online encyclopedia reading about Oprichniks.

In Russia, everyone knows who they are, but for a foreign reader might be confusing.

They were devils incarnate, that rode black horses, with the severed head of a dog and broom tied to a belt. They destroyed the Russian nobility, and anybody that resisted them - in the name of Ivan the Terrible and the centralization of the Russian state.

They are the reason we did not have a liberum veto.

The modern descendants of the Oprichniks are the FSB.

Possibly, my point is that there was no doctrine of an unprovoked first strike. Torq I believe, was saying there was and the justification would follow. I just don't buy that idea. The two camps had the same philosophy and were not about to invade each other nor did they want to.

Imagine seeing a guy like this riding into town...

Completely immune to courts, and to local magistrates. Has the mandate to kill on sight, without trial or appeal.

As a kid, I was super upset to learn about the dog heads. I asked my dad where they got them - he told me they would kill peasant dogs wherever they were to replenish supplies of heads.

Lol. My dad is great. Wonderful thing to tell a child.

But it turned out to be true.

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That would make a great post in the stock market thread.

Like I said - the two of you talking past each other.

Europe was just a battleground.

If things in Cuba spiraled out of control - the Soviet response would be an attempt to occupy France and the Iberian Peninsula. The southern North Sea coast, and the Italian Peninsula.

Basically - close of all access points used by the allies to invade Italy and France in WW2.

It's not because France or Italy did anything against Russia - so in that sense it's an unprovoked invasion. But rather because of what America might do.

I am happy for Poland.

I love you, Crow.

Soul of Slavia.

Holder of eternal Truth.

In a world of morons, wisdom is curse, believe me brate. Yet, all is so interesting.

Would leadership of Poland sacrifice all Poles in defense of Rome`s black nobility?

At the same time Serbia turns to the future..

Live : Donald Trump's Son Visits Serbia, Meets President Aleksandar Vučić in Diplomatic Talks | TDG

Just when Ursula Van Derkunt gets tough and says the EU is going to tariff the US, Trump says there will be a new 200% tariff on all European wine. I imagine Italy will break with the EU stance and do an independent trade deal with the US quickly. France will be cleaning the $hit on their floors after hearing this and smaller countries with wine production could be decimated. But the US is going to break under EU pressure. LMAFO

See, brate, my thoughts still fly to our brother Tusk. His words these days sound so crazy that I am sure that he only pretends. Must be some trick there. Maybe that Poland flock to side of Hungary and Serbia in last moment.

By any chance, do you think you are speaking for Poland? If not, why do you think anybody listens to your wild theories?

You are right, Ukranian Kozaks; there is much to be afraid of. So you understand why your progress is so slow

Ukraine behind Dnieper and Odessa at sea, should be all Serbia and would be peace. So help me God.

Nobody believes that about Tarriffs - it's been proved already that Golden Cow is bluffing

Nobody will be decimated - for most wine producers the most important market is their own country followed by the rest of Europe.

Americans who drink Champagne mainly do it to flex and don't like to be seen as cheap

Italy can't do a separate deal. Nor can Ireland. I honestly don't think anyone ever sat Trump down and told him that

Anyway that has nothing to do with the illegal invasion of Ukraine by drunk rapist Nazis

BREAKING!!!!!!!

Trump cuts off russian oil sales to the EU!!!!!!!!

Biden kept a loophole open and Trump just let it close!

More of this, please!

x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1900212523673989367

Yes. I heard also. All Europe buys from Russia must have the USA passport. Trump is genius.