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Posts by Avalon  

Joined: 11 Sep 2007 / Male ♂
Warnings: 1 - S
Last Post: 16 Feb 2016
Threads: Total: 4 / Live: 3 / Archived: 1
Posts: Total: 1,067 / Live: 857 / Archived: 210

Displayed posts: 860 / page 4 of 29
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Avalon   
7 Jan 2013
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Avalon I will ask you avery serious question - why are so many private foreign real estate investors who have been in Poland since the early 90's, now selling up and relocating their investments out of Poland?

Probably because they now realise that Poland is going to accept the Euro as its currency. They thought the Polish government would pull back once they had the EU money, now they know the Polish politicians have been bought with a promise of the EU gravy train. While Poland has the Zloty it can support its own currency.

Why do private qualified real estate investors in Poland consider the residential market ' not liquid ' ?

Because the banks are not lending. (BTW did you hear the news this afternoon. Basle is going to reduce the liquidity the banks are required to hold. I wonder why?, possibly they are not making any money charging 15 zloty a month to manage current accounts.)?)

Peterweg is correct, new laws in the UK are introduced to stop property speculation by overseas investors and the same will happen in all of EU 27.

WTF are you on about. New laws? do you mean higher stamp duty? who is trying to stop foreign investors buying property in London, Cameron is putting down the red carpet for the rich millionaires fleeing France.

So you admit they crashed in other cities in Poland??

Nice try. Thats not what I said and you know it.

If I were rich filth I would just walk into a few developers office, offer them what he thinks will fly e.g 15-20 percent less, leave his number and go for.a cuppa.. If he does that 5 times for sure he will get a bite, only proviso is that he should be ready with his funds to move quickly if someone says yes I.e. have his deposit ready and have identified a bank that will back him.

Maybe he is stupid and has not thought of doing this, not for me to say. Perhaps you could advise him directly?
Avalon   
7 Jan 2013
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

the subjective opinion of one person?

You yourself posted a little while ago, referring to Lublin. Quote " they fell 1.5% in October which is a massive drop for a place which has seen little or no falls since 2005.

That must be a killer. The one area that you want to buy into and the prices have not crashed.
Avalon   
7 Jan 2013
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

ALL the UK, including London, they have fallen.

telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/9784736/House-prices-rise-1.3pc-in-December.html

And yes I have got first hand experience of getting a big discount off asking price. I just closed at almost 30 percent below asking price on a commercial property.

I have always said that it is possible to pick up bargains, foreclosures and bankrupt stock, but this is not the norm in Poland. These are taken by the bailiffs and auctioned, with a starting price of two thirds the market value. this is the law in Poland. The one off bargain does not reflect the overall property prices. If you bothered to read what Richfilth posted, he has been looking for months and has seen no great appreciable falls in the area he is looking.

The fools that built in semi decent areas and tried to pass off properties as "luxury" are still trying to get rid of these properties and are taking huge hits so distorting the market reports.

These were overpriced anyway and I think the developers will not lose to much in the long run.
When you get down to the reasonable prices, you are not seeing the same.

Getting more people to get in debt is not in anyone's benefit, they are introducing rules to stop property speculation.

They are introducing rules to stop the bankers gambling with their clients money, making bad investments and paying themselves huge bonuses
Avalon   
5 Jan 2013
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

you will see they want cheaper houses not cheaper mortgages

I want cheaper petrol but I'm not going to get it.

Thats pure speculation on your part and ignores the Euro debt bank crisis which takes precedent over creating construction jobs.

You think I am the only one ignoring the Euro debt bank crises? What do you think the European parliament is doing?

Who's speculation was it that all 17 members of the Euro currency could survive. I think you will find that they have already broken most of their own rules/laws and if it suits the EU commissions purposes, they will break many more. The project must succeed, no matter how many people get hurt.
Avalon   
5 Jan 2013
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Yet the government is doing its very best to force prices down by restricting banks lending. Banks will make profit how they can. Screaming will not make any difference to the Basel III rules on bank lending, its completely outside the actions of of governments.

The markets will dictate the prices. The Polish government is already worried about the slowdown in construction and the loss of jobs. If you remember, the government closed the scheme for "family first" and then, almost immediately came up with another to help young people onto the housing ladder. They will hand the responsibilities of home loans back to the banks and claim special circumstances to the EU, the argument being that they need time to catch up to the West.

You only have to look at the anger in the UK, as more young people are denied the right to buy and live independently. Its a huge vote loser for any party in power.
Avalon   
4 Jan 2013
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

And every year his prediction comes closer to reality. The pair of you just have to comprehend what 'real' versus 'nominal' prices are.

What part of "bought and already own" don't you understand. As for the Polish government making loans more difficult!!!, they will soon have to change this when the developers stop building homes (permit applications already going down) and the banks are screaming because they cannot make any profits, or, do you think they will promise voters more slums to live in? I will make a prediction, one day I am going to die. I think we can safely say that my prediction will come true so I will not be planning any holidays in the future, just in case!!!!
Avalon   
4 Jan 2013
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Similarly, after six months of watching allegro, gumtree, oferty.net, gratka et al, it seems the same old offers are on there day in, day out - no new properties advertised, and 20 agents all offering exactly the same apartment on the secondary market. Either there are no new properties coming up for sale AT ALL, or I've somehow missed where all the real property is being advertised...

You may want to try offering a reward. Someone (who shall be nameless) told SeanBM and myself that he could find us Newly built flats in Krakow for 1500 PLN m2. We offered him 5000 PLN for every apartment he could find us. Strangely enough, we have yet to receive one offer? As this was a couple of years ago and the prices have been "plunging down" on a monthly basis, these apartments must be around the 500 PLN m2 mark by now.
Avalon   
2 Jan 2013
Real Estate / Buying/Selling distressed property in Poland/ Walk away from your mortgage [10]

not exactly a queue to sell you properties for 10 grose on the zloty, or perhaps the desperation was over hyped.

Remember the "don't buy", you are better off renting advice from our regular sceptics, another who said that rents were strictly controlled in Germany. The population in Poland is stagnating and no new houses are needed.

Lets see what is happening to the stable, German property market:-

spiegel.de/international/germany/german-renters-pinched-by-rising-costs-and-decreasing-supply-a-875224.html

Come on Milky, share your wisdom. What sage advice can you give us for 2013.
.
Avalon   
23 Dec 2012
Life / Why are Poles obsessed with shame? [19]

People in this country behave embarrassingly quite a lot but the BBC doesn't get into a frenzy with "National Shame" headlines.
We just don't really care to be honest.

I hardly think the BBC is in a position to criticise anyone after the Savile cover-up, tax avoidence by the so called stars and the general waste of the taxpayers money and how many more MP's have recently escaped prosecution for stealing from the public purse? You want to talk of shame?, the shame is the British public, meekly accepting this as normal behaviour. Cess pit and laughing stock of the world.
Avalon   
20 Dec 2012
News / Polish people's criticism of European Union [104]

I found this amusing today:-

wbj.pl/artiwww.cle-61420-european-commission-to-look-into-polands-road -contracts.html?typ=wbj

The same European Commission that has not had its books signed off for 14 years due to irregularities and the same commission responsible for this:-

"FEARS that the EU is squandering more British ­taxpayers' cash were fuelled last night after it emerged more than £1.2billion in overseas aid from Brussels could not be traced."
Avalon   
20 Dec 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Did you read my post?

Yes. Perhaps it would have been better if you put the links before you said "there are much better real investments on the Polish market".
Avalon   
20 Dec 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

I certainly would not invest into any of the property offers today, there are much better real investments available on the Polish market.

Surely, you are not suggesting that the properties you link to are good value?

Krakow, a 35m2 (one bedroom ) for 14,000 zloty per m2 (unfinished) with another 50,000 plus for a parking space.

It makes the 120m2 ( 3 d/bedrooms) , 3,000 PLN m2, two free secure parking spaces, external storage shed + gardens and children's play area, look an absolute rip off.

Mind you, now that the A4 motorway is open, it will take at least 30 mins to get to Krakow.
Avalon   
17 Dec 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Despite prices being higher in Warsaw, Dziennik Gazeta Prawna writes that the average monthly salaries (Krakow - PLN 2,514, Warsaw PLN 3,289) mean that that residents of Krakow must wait for longer.

President of Central Statistical Office of Poland has announced that average monthly gross wage and salary in Poland in the second quarter of 2012 was PLN 3 496,82.
Avalon   
16 Dec 2012
Life / Is Poland a poor country? [578]

the money just isn't there to finance the sharks but they(bandits) will make millions

Is this supposed to make sense?
Avalon   
15 Dec 2012
Life / Is Poland a poor country? [578]

A lot of concrete apartments are turning 60 years old,hence, would be declared unsafe, in countries that do inspections.

You really do keep changing your tune. I told you this years ago. You said that (in your words) there were millions of properties standing empty, left by the Poles who had gone to work in the West. You stated that there was a massive over-supply of apartments. Now you seem to realise that the current housing stock is old and in dire need of replacement. Who is going to do this Milky? the State? or the investors you hate so much.

Re-read what you wrote in July of 2010, you were wrong then and you are still wrong now.
Avalon   
13 Dec 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

If house prices are falling in Poland surely that's a good thing for young couples:D

Of course this is desirable, but, Milky thinks that they should sell for cost price or less.
Avalon   
12 Dec 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

1) Don't know. Pretty high, apparently
2) I will have to dig out the spread sheet again. Maybe over the weekend.
3) Don't know, but whats the relevance?

The answer to the first question, you do know. 243%

The answer to the 2nd question is whatever Milky wants to make up.

The relevance of the 3rd question is with reference to your statement :-

A disaster for mortgage holders.

As I said, I want to learn from you so please explain how a person who bought a house/apartment for (say) 200,000 zloty in 2004 and still resides at the same address is facing a cataclysm of the first order? Are you saying that their house/apartment is now worth 80,000 zloty?

Repossessed-real-estate-soars-in-Poland

"Regarding the repossession of property, a syndrome has been noted concerning relatively small loans from so-called parabanks - firms offering the services of banks without a full banking license."

Milky, you turn being evasive into an art form. Not once in the artical you give a link to, does it mention the word "mortgage". I asked a simple question, "what is the percentage of mortgage repossessions since 2008 ?" All you and Peterweg manage to do is change the subject to rental incomes and unemployment. You both know all there is to know about property in Poland, enlighten me, or, do the usual and reopen this thread in a months time stating the same crap.
Avalon   
11 Dec 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

In real terms milky's 60% is already here

OK, answer the following questions in the order given:

1) What was the percentage price increase (year on year) between 2004 to the peak in 2008.

2) What is the percentage fall in prices since peak of 2008 (you can allow for inflation).

3) How many homes have been repossessed in the past 4 years as a percentage of mortgage holders.

I am willing to learn from you.
Avalon   
11 Dec 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Mr. Kirejczyk said. “We can estimate — and it depends on location and type of property — between 15 and 25 percent.”

"We can estimate" = We can guess, we assume, we think.

Milky, this man sounds about as reliable as you and your predictions of a 60% drop/crash. Bye the way, how are you getting on with the house hunting?
Avalon   
21 Nov 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

banks are in the business of doing business ( right or wrong) they stick within the rules which governments set.

And if you believe that, you must also believe in Santa Clause and the tooth fairy.
Avalon   
21 Nov 2012
Real Estate / Poland's apartment prices continue to fall [1844]

Polish builders are going bankrupt or having to venture outside of Poland because of foreign competition in Poland and lower margins, the Spanish are ruthless they will build on a near zero profit in either residential/civil/commercial they don't care and Polish company's don't seem to understand the rules of the current market trend. Take into account the quote from BRE bank ' Poland will enter recession in H1 2013'.

And who is going to finance the Spanish developers? Spanish Banks?, Polish Banks?. If the economists and the banks could predict the future, Europe would not be in this mess.

Greece needs the next tranch of the bailout (31 billion Euros) or they will be bankrupt, estimated wealth of hidden Greek money in Swiss banks is 170 billion Euros. Nobody knows who is lying and who is telling the truth and I certainly would not trust the banks or the governments to tell the truth.