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Posts by Tacitus  

Joined: 6 Jul 2017 / Male ♂
Warnings: 1 - Q
Last Post: 4 Jul 2024
Threads: Total: 2 / Live: 1 / Archived: 1
Posts: Total: 1255 / Live: 798 / Archived: 457

Displayed posts: 799 / page 4 of 27
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Tacitus   
30 Aug 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

@Bobko

and getting a life sentence is very difficult in Russia

Unless of course you expose the true scale of Putin's and his allies' corruption to the media, then they will make sure you never leave prison alive. If you make it to the court room of course.

Regarding reoffenders, do we have a summary how many Wagner mercenaries have killed again after their "contract" ended.
Tacitus   
30 Aug 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

@Lenka

IMO very low sentences are invitation to revenge

Leaving aside that the man who put her daughter out to die has received a life sentence, spending more than a decade in prison is hardly something to sneeze at. And I fail to see how things would fundamentally change if she instead were forced to spend say 3 more years on top.

From what I've read she returned to Germany and lived there 5 years without causing any incident before being arrested, so I'd argue that her chances of living a crime-free crime after her time in jail are fairly good.

Frankly given how difficult it is to prosecute someone for a genocide comitted in a different country if said person did not hold a high position and especially given the relative lack of evidence, I'd say we can be satisfied with what has been achieved. Most Yazidi victims will most likely never see any justice done to them.

she won't even do the whole time

That depends on her behaviour in prison.
Tacitus   
30 Aug 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

@jon357

Interesting how similar those systems are.

who received those sentences are still inside.

Do you mean that IPP is still possible, but the conditions for its' application have been sharpened? We had the same thing happening to preventive detention a few years ago.

Statistically speaking, most murders are crimes of passion and the culprit knows the victim. The former has often led an unremarkeable until then, without any prior crimes They are less likely to reoffend than other types of criminals, and very few of them commit another murder. That does in no way excuse their crime, but it also means that they have a real chance of rehabilitation afterwards.
Tacitus   
30 Aug 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

would would you do as a judge or a juror

Using evidence to prove who actually murdered the victim? Forensics have come a long way after wall.

@jon357

or if DE don't use them, what the normal parole

Depends. A life sentence means the convict can appeal for parole after 15 years, which is statistically speaking granted after two more years in prison.

If the crime was particulary heinous, the convict can only apply for parole at an unspecified time after he is no longer considered to be dangerous. Mind you this is rather rare for first-time offenders and if there is "only" one victim.

It is possible to sentence someone to preventive detention on top of the prison sentence if he is deemed a risk for society, which can last until the convict dies. Notably this sentence is not exclusively for murder, but also sex crimes and if the culprit commits many other heavy crimes.
Tacitus   
29 Aug 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

@Paulina

Evidence of what?

There is no body, no grave, no pictures, not exact date and the house where is supposedly happened is destroyed and the girl was still officially listed as alive im the records (with many other still missing Yazidis). If the women had not talked to the informer, then German authorities would have had no idea that this happened far away in IS territory.

The confession of the women and the testimony of the mother tells us that the girl died and how, but it was a bit tricky regarding the details required for a murder conviction.
Tacitus   
29 Aug 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

@Paulina

Concerning there not being enough evidence and her husband being responsible

I have been following this case with great interest, so I can tell that this article barely scratches the surface.

The trouble in this case was that there was no physical evidence. The prosecution was only possible due to the culprit revealing the case to an informer of the police and the testimony of the mother was (understandably) sometimes contradictory. All things her lawyers picked up on, so it was not a sure thing that her conviction would be confirmed, let alone be increased.
Tacitus   
29 Aug 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

Even if the kill shot comes from a cop who just happened to be there!

One of the many, many things wrong with the American legal and justice system.

One interesting story I have once read about the UK in early modern times. If I remember correctly, break-ins became a serious problem, so they applied the death-penalty (which was used for a lot of non-violent crimes back then). The number of break-ins did not decline, but the number of murders increased. Because now the culprits had nothing to gain amd everything to lose from leaving witnesses.
Tacitus   
29 Aug 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

Today, you pussified Germans wouldn't execute Hitler.

Of course not. That the state should not have the right to take the life of its' citizens is one of the things we learned as a consequence of his regime.

verdict is not the death penalty, the inmates often fix it.

And often in the US you have convicts going in for a relatively light crime and they come out as hardened criminals.

It seems like Americans take notice though.

The German prison program that inspired Connecticut

youtube.com/watch?v=yOmcP9sMwIE&t=544s&pp=ygUXQW1lcmljYW4gZ2VybWFuIHByaXNvbnM%3D
Tacitus   
29 Aug 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

@jon357

for whom normal punishment is never enough

Indeed. It is an understandable, if archaic reflex. Going by that reflex, we should still be slowly torturing criminals to death on the townnsquare, anything else feels insufficient as punishment for some. There is however ample evidence for a correlation between the humanization of our justice system and the decline in crimes so I suppose that has to suffice.

@Paulina

happy about this sentence?

I was indeed happy about the sentence when I heard about it. There was apparantly not enough evidence to convict her directly for murder, since the deed itself was mostly done by her husband. If she had been charged as an accomplice, she would have received less jail time. This decision creates a precedence to prosecute others who enslaved Yazidis in Iraq for crimes against humanity and receive tough jail time, even if no actual deaths can be contributed to them.

Who knows if she can be rehabilitated. She had a clean rep before she went to join the IS, and seems to have lost faith in it, as she stopped being religious before she was arrested. I would not be surprised if she lives an unremarkeable life after she is released, like many people who participated in the Holocaust and other genocidal crimes and never offended again.
Tacitus   
29 Aug 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

"No one truly knows a nation until one has been inside its jails. A nation should not be judged by how it treats its highest citizens but its lowest ones."

I' ve seen enough documentaries about US prisons and how they breed violence and crime to appreciate how our work.
Tacitus   
16 Aug 2023
News / Unfulfilled promises by PiS [558]

I won't envy Tusk if he should manage to win the election. The challenges to Poland's economic prosperity are daunting. The demographic decline will soon become visible, and the follies of PiS will reduce his options even more.
Tacitus   
10 Jul 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

@Miloslaw

.the new capital of Europe is Warsaw

Poland certainly has potential, but for that it probably needs a different government. One that is willing to broker compromises and work with others, even make sacrifices to see them fet through.

Being infuential in Europe is more than military might, that is something Russia never understood.
Tacitus   
9 Jul 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

Poland want to liberate BElarus

Let us be real here. If Warsaw was ever to contemplate such a foolosh and dangerous move, the reliability of a shared anti-air system would likely be one of the less pressing concerns.

In any case I'd argue that getting the best affordable protection for its' citizen should be a higher priority than plans for invading a neighbouring country.
Tacitus   
9 Jul 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

.the project Sky Shield (with those israeli Iron Dome) could be our way out of the danger zone!

Indeed. Especially since anti-air defence systems are incredibly expensive. Perhaps more expensive than any other modern weaponry sans aircraft carriers. If Poland joins we could cover almost all of Eastern and Central Europe.
Tacitus   
19 Jun 2023
History / Enemies, Strangers, Friends. Poles and Germans. [82]

@Ironside

Germany wants to to be in charge of Poland

And this impression is based on what exactly?

Greece example springs to mind

You mean when Germany bailed out Greece after it turned out that the Greeks had falsified their accounts and spent the money on vanity projects like the Olympics and generous welfare programs? At a time when e.g. the Baltic states were in favour of throwing Greece to the wolves? Yeah, that was really ruthless... .

Russia Germany deal would stand.

Let us be real here. If Kiev had fallen in a couple of days, everyone would have gone back to buisness. No one would have wanted to sabotage their economy for a lost cause. Poland might have intensified their attempts to diversify their energy supply, but they would nevertheless continued to receive Russian energy for a few more years at least.

@jon357

profits tend to flow in one direction

How do you measure that? If I look at how trade has developed between those countries, I'd hardly find that justifiable.

Poland exported more to Germany in 2021 than vice versa.

oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/pol/partner/deu#:~:text=1995-,In%202021%2C%20Poland%20exported%20%2489.4B%20to%20Germany.,and%20Seats%20(%242.31B).

Cut down on your quotes please
Tacitus   
18 Jun 2023
History / Enemies, Strangers, Friends. Poles and Germans. [82]

two years back Poland and Germany DID have quite opposed policies

Well, one could argue that the views on Russia differed, but the actual policies not as much, particulary when it came to buying Russian fossil fuels. Poland was smart enough to diversify its' ressource in the long run, but faced the same problems being cut off from Russian supplies. Both countries had the same aim in their approach towards Russia: To preserve the European peace order. Poland had the better understanding of Russia which is something German politicians need to learn from.

And Russia has now been identified as the main threat in the new national security strategy, so there is certainly a lot in common in the future.
Tacitus   
18 Jun 2023
History / Enemies, Strangers, Friends. Poles and Germans. [82]

Both countries want to live in peace in prosperity, dont want war in Europe and want to increase trade with each other. Both countries are crucial members of EU and NATO and have identified Russia's Putin as the main threat to their security. Successive governments are most likely to follow those lines.
Tacitus   
18 Jun 2023
History / Enemies, Strangers, Friends. Poles and Germans. [82]

if you compare that with our past a greater commonality

Indeed. Leaving aside that this means that neither country is pursuing long-term goals that are detrimental to each other, it also means that both desire the same things on many issues. Which allows for greater economic dependence and cooperation on key issues like the Ukraine war.
Tacitus   
18 Jun 2023
History / Enemies, Strangers, Friends. Poles and Germans. [82]

German side, there is an absolute lack of interest in Polish culture

Maybe B.B. can elaborate on his impression on the East German side, but I think I can confirm this for many West Germans. I doubt most West Germans could name a famous Polish author or a famous Polish piece of music.

Western European and American culture is everything here (well and Japanese in certain circles).

Part of this is probably due to the Iron curtain and could be changed in time with positive advertising. Sadly the opposite is happening right now, with mostly negative news coming from Poland.
Tacitus   
17 Jun 2023
History / Enemies, Strangers, Friends. Poles and Germans. [82]

respective interests work at cross purposes

Why would Poland and Germany have cross purposes? We want ultimately the same thing. Trade and work with each other and live in a peaceful Europe.
Tacitus   
12 Jun 2023
Off-Topic / Terms of Russian Surrender [116]

Flawless Russian logic. They can make claims based on treaties that never existed and disregard treaties they themselves signed (Helsinki, Paris, Budapest the list goes on).
Tacitus   
11 Jun 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

She did her duty to the last. That is something even her critics will admit about her.

In doing so she set an example and if more people wore masks, she might have saved quite a lot of lifes
Tacitus   
10 Jun 2023
News / Poland is the new military power of Europe. [275]

Because it was entirely legal.

We had this discussion before. As pointed out back then, there is no legal justification for the invasion. It was not in self-defense, nor sanctioned by the UN. As such it was an illegal war.

Putin may never stand trial because power dynamics may prevent this from happening. Does that mean that his invasion of Ukraine is legal?

would France or Spain be able to exercise a veto

It would defeat the purpose of a European army if it could not act in self-defense.

Coincidentally the UK best hope of protecting the Falklands long-term is probably an EU army given that financing the necessary fleet is increasingly beyond them. Bit that is matter after the UK rejoins.

@Bratwurst Boy

and Poland will sit on the sideline

Dont mind that one bid. The stronger Poland becomes, the securer we are. I am just worried that they might end up overdoing it and thus financially ruining themselves.
Tacitus   
10 Jun 2023
News / Poland is the new military power of Europe. [275]

@Kashub1410

liberation of North Korea

Depends on the circumstances. If North Korea once again invades South Korea and gets repelled, then I would argue that a subsequent campaign to also liberate North Korea would be justified.

The USA deciding to invade North Korea tomorrow without provocation would be a different matter. The fat Kim has a nightmarish regime, but the international community has rules on when the use of force is justified for very good reasons.

The first war against Saddam Hussein to liberate Kuwait was of course fully justified. Just as the war in 2003 was obviously illegal due to the lack of any legal justification. That it also made things much worse for the people in Iraq and neighbouring countries is another matter. One could now point out how participation in that illegal invasion is a sign that a certain country is yet struggling to leave its' bloody imperialistic past behind it, but I digress.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has at least made it less likely that Poland, or any European country would contemplate another military adventurer in another part of the world in the future.

Sweden has pushed recently

What has Sweden done to Poland?

@Bratwurst Boy

with a Union as the EU already in place.

True, but then again few Europeans back then would have identified with the ideals of the EU. Most had autocratic and imperialistic sympathies.

Really a shame that it took us that long to learn the lesson, but at least it stuck.
Tacitus   
10 Jun 2023
News / Poland is the new military power of Europe. [275]

@Bratwurst Boy

especially as Poland is not known for colonial wars to exploit far away countries

Which was why I asked for scenarios because I could not really understand why Poland would want to use the military over the objection of other states. One of the advantages Poland enjoys over Western countries is the lack of colonial ties to other parts of the world. Unlike France or the UK it has no misconceptions of imperial grandeur and does not seem likely to engage in other military adventures. Especially now when its' military plans are (understandably) fully focused on deterrence against Russia. I suspect that if Poland agreed to join a European army, it would be interested in making sure that it would not be used on such endeavours.

Come to which I'd be interested to know if Poland also plans to build modern ammunition production chains? The war in Ukraine has reminded us how much ammunition is used up each day in modern wars and all those fancy Himars and Krabs are of little use without it.
Tacitus   
10 Jun 2023
News / Poland is the new military power of Europe. [275]

I doubt they'd ever agree to that.

We shall see. If it becomes clear that Poland - like any European country - can no longer finance a credible military deterrence on its' own then the prospect of losing the ability of waging unilateral colonial wars in other parts of the world might no longer look like such a big sacrifice.

Pragmatism will lead to the creation of a European army. Keeping the welfare and pension system afloat will be a big motivation.
Tacitus   
10 Jun 2023
News / Poland is the new military power of Europe. [275]

France opposed that war.

That they did, along with Germany and other countries and history has more than vindicated that decision. The illegal invasion of Iraq is a blight on the reputation of the USA and those who participated in it, which sadly included Poland.

It is up to the member states to decide under which conditions an European army would operate. I can imagine that it would naturally act automatically in case of self-defence if a member state gets attacked, since we have already similar provisions in NATO and the EU. There will hopefully be restrictions against using it as a colonial expedition force, but who knows what the countries will come up with.

from being off-topic

Hardly. I always made sure to include Poland and its' military future in my posts, which naturally include talks about closer military cooperation with other European countries.
Tacitus   
10 Jun 2023
News / Poland is the new military power of Europe. [275]

the greatest political project that has ever been undertaken

There is hardly a project more worthy of such praise. The EU embodies all the positive political ideals that have been coined in Europe. Democracy and cooperation between states of all sizes. The EU is by its' nature the very opposite of imperialism. There is no supranation l entity in which even the smallest member has that much influence like e.g. Luxembourg has on many issues.

it's a Franco-German political project rather than economic cooperation

The EU was always a political project with the goal of a peaceful and united Europe. Which is why the argument of the Brexiteers of being "deceived" over the true nature are such nonsense.

It is matter of great pride that Germany has done a lot over the years to keep the EU working, similiarly to how the British are proud of their countries deeds during the WWs. It is not a "Franco-German project" to the extent that it includes others, all the member states have a stake in it and it has been used very effectively by smaller states to further their interests.

Trying to put the EU in a tradition with Hitler or talking about imperialistic ambitions of some member states is really devaluing the meaning of those historical experiences.

On a side note this rhetoric mirrors Putin's views on the NATO as an imperialistic American project for American hegemony. The only politician in our proximity who is still rooted in imperialistic dreams is Putin. All the others have moved on. They still make mistakes and miscalculations, but that simple fact should be easy enough to acknowledge.

Euroarmy' and Poland wanted to use it but France, Germany, Italy, wherever, didn't want them to use it?

What kind of scenario are you imagining? Under which circumstances would Poland want to use an army, but the other European armies would not?