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Posts by Tacitus  

Joined: 6 Jul 2017 / Male ♂
Warnings: 1 - Q
Last Post: 4 Jul 2024
Threads: Total: 2 / Live: 1 / Archived: 1
Posts: Total: 1255 / Live: 798 / Archived: 457

Displayed posts: 799 / page 3 of 27
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Tacitus   
25 Jan 2024
News / How will Poland be affected by WW3 which has now started [527]

is a fair proposition

Poland, the Baltics and Finnland are now frontline states in a confrontation with Russia, and NATO doctrine has always assigned those states the task to field a large part of the conventional forces with other countries sending a few additional divisions. I seem to recall that Western European countries have agreed to field 8 combat ready divisions by 2030. If Russia invades Poland with say 800k soldiers, then the latter will have to equalize the difference in numbers.

while shrinking from their duties and trying to shift others

Roles have just changed. Germany can now play the part of France and the UK during the Cold War while our Eastern Neighbours will serve as first line of defence. Who knows, if Kaliningrad and Belarus become independent one day, then Poland might switch roles as well.

is selling them their tanks

That and other stuff like modern air-defence-systems. But that is relevant how?
Tacitus   
25 Jan 2024
News / How will Poland be affected by WW3 which has now started [527]

I doubt any of the Western European countries will resort to mass conscription. As it is their armies struggle already to equip the soldiers they have and fighting a full-scale war won't be very popular to begin with. They'll end up sending a few divisions (which is the current NATO planning) and a disproportionate amount of high-tech weapons and defense systems, but Poland and the Baltics need to be prepared to shoulder at least 50% of the required man power.
Tacitus   
15 Dec 2023
News / Ups and downs of the democratic government 2023-2027 in Poland [332]

respect for sovereignty

Sadly, most of the world only respects sovereignity of countries can defend them. That is what Ukraine was forced to learn. Hence they are willing to sacrifice part of their sovereignity by joining the EU because it will help them defend the rest.

needn't worry your pretty little head

I dont worry, just pointing out what is most likely going to happen. If the UK does not rejoin the EU, they'll likely lose controle over the Falklands this century. You won't have the power projection to defend it on your own 30+ years and there are plenty of countries just waiting for payback time.

It has certainly been a success so far

It made you poorer, and much less influential down the line. What a great success story. Even your crown jewel the London stock exchange is slowly bleeding away. Not just to other European cities, but other parts of the world away.

how much they hated

Again with this Brexit nonsense. Nobody hates you for leaving, at worst we pity you. But you are not going to keep the privileges of staying in the EU after leaving.

Trying to create a land-based Empire

Again, it would be helpful to read up on European history and not the warped Brexiteer bersion. The people who founded the EU did it with the fresh experience of having survived the Nazi Empire and in the hopes that doing so would allow its' member states to not be swallowed up by the Soviet Empire.
Tacitus   
15 Dec 2023
News / Ups and downs of the democratic government 2023-2027 in Poland [332]

@jon357

All of that happens already without any sort of 'federalism

It doesnt though. The invasiom of Ukraine has shown how inefficient the current status is. We need greater coherence in our foreign policy so that a wannabe dictator who gets bribed by Mmoscow and Beijing does not paralyze it. And while we might be on the path towards an European army, those steps need to be accelerated. Otherwise we won't be able to defend ourselves. It is eventually all a matter of size. Modern combat systems become more and more expensive. We can see this process already. Smaller countries can barely afford their own air force. Even the great European powers find it difficult to maintain a single aircraft carrier. Many small, if wealthy entities end up dominated by larger, hostile powers. We saw this happen many times in history.

In 20 years, none of the European countries will still qualify as great powers, their place taken by other, much larger countries. That is inevitable. India, Brazil and other countries don't care much for our concerns while we are still relatively wealthy and powerful. One can only guess how they'll behave once the tables fully turn. The response of the parts of the world that will shape the future to the Ukrainian war and Gaza really should put any illusions to rest.

Another indication is the Falkland question. Historically legally (and morally) they are part of the UK. But the anticolonialist view (when directed against Europe) is getting stronger stronger, as are those countries supporting it. In 20 years the Uk on its' own will be a medium size power, trying to defend the Falklands against Argentina that may count on the support of South America, China and other powers, each power being wealthier and more powerful than the UK. I am always surprised that developments like this are ignored by Brexiteers. Than again, their "vision" of "Global Britain" would not work otherwise.

has been a success

Yeah sure. It has been a success in the sense that the UK manged to leave the EU, but otherwise... .
Tacitus   
14 Dec 2023
News / Ups and downs of the democratic government 2023-2027 in Poland [332]

Federal isn't "wonderful"

The vision behind is. Being able to live and work everywhere on the continent, helping and defending each other. Pooling our ressources together and staying at the forefront of human advancement. It is our best and likely only chance to retain Europe's prosperity, influence and peace.

EU's most established and resilient democracy has already left,

And may return, once the Brexiteer generation is gone. Who knows, maybe London will become part of the European family again at the same time as Ukraine.
Tacitus   
14 Dec 2023
News / Ups and downs of the democratic government 2023-2027 in Poland [332]

Is "Federal Europe" a dead idea?

Hardly. The idea itself is so wonderful that it will persist. And all dreaming aside, it is entirely possible that the EU will be a big winner of Russia's invasion of Ukraine since it reminded people what is at stake, and what the EU can offer. If the USA ends up abandoning Ukraine either now or in 1 year, for which I'd say there is a 50/50 chance, then the EU would become Ukraine's last hope.
Tacitus   
10 Dec 2023
News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]

I'd worry more about the Italy/France route.

We do, hence the border controls at the border with Austria.

The outgoing one has always been quite strict

That is what they claim, but the reality seems to be quite different. They sold visas to Africans and the increase of illegal border crossing suggests that they were quite happy to wave people through. Never mind how people smuggler could apparantly act with impunity.
Tacitus   
10 Dec 2023
News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]

@jon357

Not according to the police Union or the news report

Which news report do you mean? All I've read reported a drop of illegal border crossings by 50% and more than a hundred additional arrest of people smugglers. Naturally the police union is against such measures since they put further strain of the police, but their desired solution (letting other countries controle the European borders) is clearly not working.

The results have been unambigous, that even the politicians who were strongly opposed to controls have since then admitted their error.
Tacitus   
10 Dec 2023
News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]

I just googled it and there was a quote from the German police Union saying that they didn't think it made a difference.

Many said similar things before those controls were introduced, but they turned out highly effective. There has been a 50% decrease in illegal border crossings ever since and more than 100 smugglers have been arrested.
Tacitus   
10 Dec 2023
News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]

Hopefully the new Polish government will introduce measures that make those border controls no longer necessary.
Tacitus   
29 Oct 2023
News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]

@Mr Grunwald

I cannot understand how somebody would even flirt with the idea of thinking that abortion is "normal" just like scalping somebody's head.

Personally I am against abortions in most cases. It seems morally wrong to abort a healthy baby just because it does not fit into your life planning (unless it is the result of rape or endangers the life of the mother). But I can not deny the negative consequences of strict anti-abortion laws in practice.
Tacitus   
29 Oct 2023
News / Abortion still under control in Poland [2986]

Who knows. What we do know is that the law has a negative effects on the birth rate in Poland.

notesfrompoland.com/2023/10/26/annual-number-of-births-falls-11-in-poland-marking-first-double-digit-decline/
Tacitus   
28 Oct 2023
News / Polish Parliamentary Elections 2023 [933]

Yet another reason why Poland will benefit from a new government: The draconian abortion laws implemented by PiS had most likely an averse effect on the (already terrible) demographic future of Poland. Repealing them might help undo some of the damage.

Annual number of births falls 11% in Poland, marking first double-digit decline

notesfrompoland.com/2023/10/26/annual-number-of-births-falls-11-in-poland-marking-first-double-digit-decline/
Tacitus   
21 Oct 2023
History / What do Poles owe to Hungarians? [231]

@mafketis

I'm a little surprised PiS didn't try that

I have read claims that they tried, just more discreetly. Apparantly election districts were not updated to the changing population allocation, which meant that urban areas have fewer MPs relative to the size of their population. They put lots of election booths in villages but fewer in cities. They made it more difficult for the Polish diaspora to vote. Given that and more, it is incredible that the opposition managed to win this election.
Tacitus   
3 Oct 2023
News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [562]

Just amazing how fast the PiS government manages to evaporate all the goodwill accumulated in the last 20 month.
Tacitus   
18 Sep 2023
News / Poles say a big YES to our European Union [957]

No solution for the EU they must aim for dissolution.

The EU is not the obstacle. The UK left the EU yet has not managed to come up with a working solution beyond letting the EU handle this and a Ruanda scheme that the UK courts seem to have serious issues with. The obstacle is dealing with the refugees while adhering to the standards of rule of law that defines our civilization.

How exactly do you propose to do that?

Simple. Create a data base where all refugees are registered and make sure that they can only claim benefits in the country they are allocated to.
Tacitus   
17 Sep 2023
News / Poles say a big YES to our European Union [957]

not that hard.

It is if you want to live up to the standards of your civilization. Just because Australia has decided to compromise their principles should not mean we do so as well.

Europe could easily absorb a few million refugees per year if we distribute them properly amongst the member states. Once every country takes in their fair share, this crisis will cease to be a problem.
Tacitus   
17 Sep 2023
News / Poles say a big YES to our European Union [957]

Asylum is provided to those fleeing 'individualized' persecution from a government (to start with).

You forgot subsidiary protection which makes up most of the asylum applications and is also enshrined in European law.

Establish processing centers in Africa

That has been proposed for many years now, but the practical obstacles are nearly unsolvable. Either the African countries do not want to host them, and those who might want to (e.g. Libya) can not trusted to guarantee proper conditions.
Tacitus   
14 Sep 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

makes the Nuremberg court into uncivilized barbarians

Hardly. They gave them a fair trial and the punishment that was in accordance with the laws of a time. We have advanced in our values since then, but the proceedings were exemplary even by our standards.

protect the most heinous of criminals

This is the difference between them and us. Nazis believed that certain life holds no value and can be eradicated. The death sentence is inherently wrong and the state should lower itself to their standards.

You forgot to answer my question btw.
Tacitus   
14 Sep 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

@Novichok

Life in prison.

copy the US Constitution and make it yours

That is more or less what happened. Germans took a look at the US and British constitution and implemented what seemed workeable and implemented improvements based on their recent experience.

Going by the fact the German democracy is still stable while the USA not only narrowly escaped a coup, but has so proven incapable of punishing the ring leader Trump, I'd say those improvements were a good idea.
Tacitus   
14 Sep 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

Was it a question of "wording" by the questioner?

I suspect that Weidel knows that she can give no convincing explanation for this. I've watched a few interviews with her and in my opinion the lacks the ability to properly deal with unexpected and inconvenient questions. Höcke is much more capable in this regard.
Tacitus   
14 Sep 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

I watched a press conference in which she was asked this question. If I remember correctly, she refused to answer.
Tacitus   
14 Sep 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

I can understand how desperate people may end up voting for a fraud because they believe they have no choice. I just find it curious how people are willing throw all personal beliefs away in order to gain or stay in power. Like those Republicans who still have principles, yet continue to follow Trump. Or Weidel in the AfD.

Not that this is anything new. Ernst Röhm was gay yet was crucial in helping the NSDAP take power and undermine the Weimar Republic, despite the NSDAP being openly homophobic and the latter being the first political entity in Germany that did not persecute LBGT.
Tacitus   
14 Sep 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

She too is called Nazi sympathiser for that.

And rightfully so. To be honest, I'll never understand how Weidel, a lesbian women living together with a woman from Asia in Switzerland can reconcile her personal life and political beliefs.

@Novichok

from the evil Russia where they are free to say

Are Russians free to call a war a "war" if it involves their current regime?
Tacitus   
2 Sep 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

can't stand crumbling German infrastructure

I can only assume that she does not place mich value on such luxuries as in-door plumbing....
Tacitus   
31 Aug 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

And do you understand that we do not punish culprits according to our whims but what our laws dictate?
Tacitus   
30 Aug 2023
News / European News and Poland Thread 3 [1272]

Depends. Are talking about applying the law of the time or now. They were executed in accordance with the law back then and would be sentenced to life in prison today.