contraption
17 Nov 2011
News / Will Poland be badly hit by Recession ? I don't think so. [70]
Of course Poland will be hit badly and it's just a matter of WHEN (not IF). If the government keeps this level of spending, join the euro (which is controlled by the ECB, not the NBP), or hide the debt, our economy will just keep falling more and faster like a ball on a slippery slope. Regarding the debt: I'd like to remind that stated 800 billion Z£ isn't the actual debt, because it doesn't cover ZUS for example (Social Insurance System, which debt is aprox 4 times higher).
Also, we won't be able to sustain economy growth because of the demography. Right now we have 2 generations of Poles (quite a number) working. Very soon (about 5 years from now, and so on, according to prof Krzysztof RybiĆski) one of these waves will start to retire. ZUS won't be able to handle this situation, because there won't be enough workforce. And when the 2nd generation will start to retire, it'll be all over. If you don't belive - look at the charts/numbers/facts. And remember that we have a fertility rate of 1,2-1,3 which is almost 1 point below the bare minimum required to sustain a population.
The only question is - will Poland be able to sustain its culture and whether our people will be able to wake up.
Cheers :)
Of course Poland will be hit badly and it's just a matter of WHEN (not IF). If the government keeps this level of spending, join the euro (which is controlled by the ECB, not the NBP), or hide the debt, our economy will just keep falling more and faster like a ball on a slippery slope. Regarding the debt: I'd like to remind that stated 800 billion Z£ isn't the actual debt, because it doesn't cover ZUS for example (Social Insurance System, which debt is aprox 4 times higher).
Also, we won't be able to sustain economy growth because of the demography. Right now we have 2 generations of Poles (quite a number) working. Very soon (about 5 years from now, and so on, according to prof Krzysztof RybiĆski) one of these waves will start to retire. ZUS won't be able to handle this situation, because there won't be enough workforce. And when the 2nd generation will start to retire, it'll be all over. If you don't belive - look at the charts/numbers/facts. And remember that we have a fertility rate of 1,2-1,3 which is almost 1 point below the bare minimum required to sustain a population.
The only question is - will Poland be able to sustain its culture and whether our people will be able to wake up.
Cheers :)