History / POLISH AND RUSSIAN FRIENDSHIP WILL LAST FOREVER [513]


With apologies to Schroedinger and Mozart - the greatest contribution of Austrians in the twentieth century are Hitler and Red Bull.

Some countries just are not consistent.

History / POLISH AND RUSSIAN FRIENDSHIP WILL LAST FOREVER [513]

@Lyzko

... and what you think Austria's history can be compared against Russia's global history? Let's leave the conquest of space and the atom outside the brackets here.

History / POLISH AND RUSSIAN FRIENDSHIP WILL LAST FOREVER [513]


Comparing Austria to Russia, is as we say in Russia, to compare an ******* (sphincter) to a finger. When Austria was trying to elevate itself to the level of Archduchy, Russia was already a kingdom of many centuries under the control of a legendary dynasty. Our princesses married French and Danish kings, meanwhile they groveled before the Bavarians on their knees.

While they were building their dysfunction of an HRE we were building a unitary state of durable power.

While they needed the entirety of Europe to stop the Ottomans, we wiped the floor with the Turks single handedly - so much so the Brits and French decided they need to help the Turks.

Their famous diplomat, Metternich, was good at negotiations with Napoleon, on the back of Russian manpower.

When they lost their place to the Germans, we took note, and carried on to be one of the two superpowers of the twentieth century.

Comparing Austria and Russia, is almost like comparing Ukraine and Russia. Hahahahah.

BTW, forget the Turks - did I mention we stopped the Mongols, and then defeated them and digested them? So much for Austria as the "Shield of Europe".

History / POLISH AND RUSSIAN FRIENDSHIP WILL LAST FOREVER [513]


Ok smartass - explain to me what the hell this would mean? What does it mean if I tell you I am a "Muscovite"?

The most logical answer would be "an ethnic Russian living within the territorial jurisdiction of the former Grand Duchy of Muscovy". What does it make the people living inside? RUSSIAN!

History / POLISH AND RUSSIAN FRIENDSHIP WILL LAST FOREVER [513]

@jon357

It's one of two regions they really want. They want the Kuban, which they think was unfairly annexed from the Cossacks, and they want the Pacific shoreline because they think it belongs to them through their majority there. Conveniently, this leaves us with only an exit to the Baltic Sea and Arctic Ocean.

History / POLISH AND RUSSIAN FRIENDSHIP WILL LAST FOREVER [513]

@Cojestdocholery

No tricks, no jokes. Just talking about families. No need to bring in your famous theory of how Russians don't actually exist, but are some mix of Poles, Ukrainians, Germans, and a multitude of Asians.

I was saying that becoming close with Ukrainians might make you closer to us. That's all.

History / POLISH AND RUSSIAN FRIENDSHIP WILL LAST FOREVER [513]

@Lenka

Can you break these connections? I know it's bad now. My Ukrainian girlfriend's parents have stopped picking up the calls of their Russian relatives. When I talk to my second cousin in Nikolayev, we don't touch politics at all - otherwise we know we can't call each other for a few weeks until we cool down. This is the absolute worst part of this conflict. What it is doing to families.

I trust that these connections are more strong than any war.

Love / What cities have most blonde girls? [26]

@Lyzko

Not true. Do you know how many guys I see in NY walking down the street with an Asian girlfriend? Big, 6'2 dudes walking down the street with a 5'4 Chinese girl. I've met a lot of people that have claimed to have entirely sworn off "American" women. Usually the charge is that "American" women behave like men.

My girlfriend, is blonde and green eyed, but dies her hair brunette. She keeps asking me which way I prefer it, and my heart sinks - because I don't give a fcuk either way.

History / POLISH AND RUSSIAN FRIENDSHIP WILL LAST FOREVER [513]


I mean real blood connections between living people. Cousins and nieces living in Russia. Uncles, aunts, grandparents. The level of population mixing between Russia and Ukraine is probably more than between any other two countries on earth, except ones recently split up (Sudan maybe, or Eritrea).

By one count, there are thirty million Ukrainians living in Russia. Some people argue that they form the majority in the Far East.

You don't think it's remarkable that both Velund and I have Ukrainian significant others? This is no dig against Russian women.

History / POLISH AND RUSSIAN FRIENDSHIP WILL LAST FOREVER [513]


What about it? As Stalin once said when asked if he should perhaps stop oppressing Catholics in Russia: ""The Pope? How many divisions has he got?"

The Pope has not mattered, ever since Pope Boniface VIII's papal bull, Unam Sanctam, failed to force the French King Phillip the Fair to heel. What happened in that case, is that mercenaries hired by the French king beat the pope to near death (he died several days later), and the papacy moved from Rome to Avignon for quite some time. Since then, few powerful sovereigns care what the Pope in Rome thinks.

History / POLISH AND RUSSIAN FRIENDSHIP WILL LAST FOREVER [513]


There are millions of family bonds between Ukraine and Russia. In taking in Ukrainians, you are not only taking in hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians, but also coming into contact with millions of others still in Russia through blood connections. The hope is that inevitably this will lead to a closer understanding, since when the conversations happen in the kitchen, rather than on the TV, people tend to grow a deeper understanding.

History / POLISH AND RUSSIAN FRIENDSHIP WILL LAST FOREVER [513]

Thoughts on Polish-Russian friendship.

1) Both sides point to the example of German rapprochement with France as an example of what could be.

2) Both sides ignore that the context of Russo-Polish relations is totally different than it was in the case of Germany and France. No parallel economic integration, or alliance building. No guiding hand of the United States in ensuring that the mortar of the friendship will set.

3) This means that any positive things are forgotten quickly, while bad ones consistently float back up to the surface. For example, who can remember now the warm atmosphere that reigned during Tusk's visits to Moscow, or Putin's official apology for Molotov-Ribbentrop? If there is no trade, and movement of peoples - goodwill gestures will not stick.

4) Both countries define their national identities to a great degree through the lens of their experience in WW2. Both countries think their experience makes them exceptional. Poland - as a heroic lone sufferer, that paid the ultimate price (polls show 70%+ of Poles think their country has suffered more than any other country in the world historically). Russia - has a cult of victory, as proof that Russia can overcome any challenge regardless of the odds. These two visions of exceptionalism are hardly reconcilable. Dishonoring veterans, to Russians, and discussing "Polish Death Camps" for Poles - are two different sides of the same coin.

5) Both countries think their exceptional experience of WW2 means they are due certain entitlements. For Poles, it means Morawiecki constantly bringing up German reparations, fifty years after Willy Brandt fell to his knees. For Russians, it means Germany has to close its eyes to all that causes it concern, and instead has to trade with us without restriction.

6) To imagine that the problem with Polish-Russian relations is due to Putin, or Kaczynski - is to make a mistake. Them leaving will not change anything.

7) Polish-Ukrainian friendship, long term, opens the door for Polish-Russian friendship.

P.S. What a strange thread title

Life / Poland's birthrate on the decline [480]


Hahaha. Apologies, could not resist after you rejected my genius plan of poking holes in condoms.

You know you cannot make 0.1 of a baby, so you will have to make a whole one? Then to compensate for Paulina and Lenka you will have to add 4.2 more, but since we know children are not divisible in tenths that means 5.0 more. Here we finally begin to see the full picture - you must make 8 children.

Love / What cities have most blonde girls? [26]

@ImSEAguy

I will tell you, if you tell me: where in South East Asia do the dumbest guys live? Does the majority live in the South, North, East, or West?

Wait, I know. It's probably the same part where you come from.

Life / Poland's birthrate on the decline [480]

@pawian

He said above - 2.

2 < 2.1 (which is necessary for natural replacement of population).

You would think, from all of Kania's lectures about making your contribution to the motherland, that he is a father of 5-6 kids. Truth is, however, that's he's 5% below the level of what is minimally necessary.

Does a dog count for 0.1 human baby?

Life / Poland's birthrate on the decline [480]


I wasn't speaking, strictly, about kids in general - just having more than two in a latter-generation urban context. The third, fourth, fifth kid will statistically have lower outcomes, if other factors are kept static. If dad keeps earning more money to be able to scale these higher needs, then of course all bets are off. That's why it seems that on average families limit it to two. Putting two through school, uni, initial life set-up is hard enough for most families.


That seems to be the current paradigm. Until we see a new one that works well (looking at Japan, Germany), it's what we have to argue against. Population means markets, markets mean innovation, population means a higher chance of winning at the random number generator game of producing geniuses - these things are hard to discount.

However, as you say, other factors play a part too. I would much rather be a Japan, than a Nigeria or Brazil. Not so sure if I would prefer to be Japan over India or China, however. Many, many factors at play.

Life / Poland's birthrate on the decline [480]

[/quote]
1) Logically, we will then close the borders. Rebuilding the population cannot happen in the context of open borders. Especially when they hear about my masturbation laws.

2) We will do what Rodrigo Duterte did in the Phillipines with drug dealers, but with underground abortion clinics. Two words: motorcycle hitmen.

3) I must consult my data set once again.

4) Glad you like it! Enjoy your 40s shoveling dirt yuppie b!tches.

5) Yes, seems there's a problem with this one. Turkey seems to be only winner from Polish masturbators. Not my intention.

Life / Poland's birthrate on the decline [480]

I've spent much time over the past few days, thinking about how to raise birth rates in Poland. I'm happy to announce that I am not coming back empty handed. I have developed several potential solutions:

1) Create a secret government agency tasked with poking holes in all condoms imported into Poland. Just small, millimeter-sized holes that would not raise suspicions of the population.

2) Provide people fake abortions. After 10-15 mins of poking around "down below", on generous helping of anesthesia, announce to the patient that the "job is done".

3) Pass legislation making masturbation illegal under penalty of confiscation of assets.

4) Men and women, above age 40 and still childless, automatically sentenced to 10 years hard labor of building kindergartens and playgrounds.

5) Reward productive members of society with once annual trip to Spain or Turkey (viagra included), paid for with money confiscated from masturbators.

I have many more potential solutions, but this should be good to get the discussion going.

Off-Topic / Why do people here fight so much? [128]

@Alien

You are German, no? Are Germans, Austrians, and Swiss the same people? How do you think an Austrian would react if you told him he is a "lost Bavarian"? What would a Zurich resident reply, if you told him he's just a southern Swabian? Take that sentiment, distill it, multiply it by 10x and you will have an accurate understanding of how close Britain and America are.

History / Polish mathematicians who solved the Enigma machine [86]


Pity, however, that Chuchill judged it not necessary to share the work of Bletchley Park with his ally, Russia. Another example of the reprehensible behaviour of perfidious Albion.

Thankfully men of conscience, like John Cairncross, ensured that we received the information in a timely manner. Later, it was revealed that some information was on Stalin's desk sooner even that it had reached the War Office.

Life / Poland's birthrate on the decline [480]


Nasty word.


Don't really see this anywhere else in the world, other than America. A vulgar quality they unfortunately have. In principle I agree, if you have to say how much you earn, or are actually able to say how much money you have at moment - the likelihood is that your successes thus far have been rather modest in the grand scale of things.

Life / Poland's birthrate on the decline [480]


This is actually not true, at least regarding the top. As someone who studied early modern demographics, I can confirm. In the past, very wealthy people tended to have more children than others on average. In the present, the situation is reversed.

Life / Poland's birthrate on the decline [480]


Economic classes, I would argue yes - Jon. Is man's worth calculated in dollars and cents - of course not. Is material success a reflection on one's intelligence - absolutely not. As a Russian, you don't have to explain to me the nuances in the differences of terminology, and what it means to be an Eastern European интеллигент. Most of my cousins back home, who work for $1,500 a month, would blow the socks off any guy I work with in the States who calmly collects $200K a year. Life is not fair, and money is not a good measuring stick.

Life / Poland's birthrate on the decline [480]

@GefreiterKania

Don't worry, I will do it soon, and more than just two :)

I always told myself I need enough money. Now when I have enough money, I tell myself I have no time. But as my deceased grandmother always said - it actually doesn't take much time at all.


I don't like your fatalism, hopeful fatalism, but still fatalism. Perhaps you need a bit of an American, a bit of a Russian in you. Stop thinking like a Chinese. We live once, and we have to take this life by the throat. There is enough time and opportunity in the world to make GefreiterKania able to support 100 kids without breaking the bank. Don't limit yourself.

Life / Poland's birthrate on the decline [480]


Poland really is a sh!t country, if a bright guy like you, with perfect English and an electrical engineering degree, is lower middle class.

Alternatively... it's your kids that are to blame ;)))

I'm same age as you, as we established, and I'm still in proud solitude. Well, if you take my girlfriend out of the equation. In my case, I don't have much clever excuses - what I tell myself is I had no time.

Life / Poland's birthrate on the decline [480]


I'm trying to stay below Strelecz35's number of warnings. I seem to collect them like Zelensky collects presidents as friends.


That's the bottom line. It really is not very exceptional, just a country with a typical post-industrial fertility rate (France is probably the only big exception, but it's also playing catch-up).

There were a few waves of demographic change in the last two-three hundred years. In pre-industrial agricultural societies it made economic sense to have as many children as possible. However, mortality rates were also extremely high, and as a result population growth was stagnant or modest. Then, with the first improvements in public sanitation and healthcare that arrived around the same time as the Industrial Revolution, life expectancy exploded and child mortality declined, but birth rates remained the same as before. The result was a huge explosion in population. Life had changed, but people kept breeding like it had not. This is what is happening in Africa currently.

Several factors worked to correct this situation. The mechanization of agriculture meant less hands were needed for work. Public education regarding contraception was also important. Urbanization, however, was probably the primary driver. Each successive generation that was born and lived in a city would have lower and lower fertility rates. In cities, kids went from being a productive asset, to a net drain on capital. Because they needed to go to kindergarten, school, uni - meant that their labor was no longer available, and instead you had to invest in them over decades. This made urban families change their calculus and lower the number of children to 1-2, since a larger family meant poorer outcomes in both education and career for the children.

The present day problem is the astronomic cost of raising a kid, that makes people not want to have kids at all. I think this explains, to a certain extent, the huge fall in fertility after 1991 in most Eastern Bloc countries. The state used to offer those services for free, but now they became a serious financial burden on the parent.

Life / Poland's birthrate on the decline [480]


Not to turn a demographic thread into a military one - but I highly doubt this. Poland's military would rapidly collapse, and the war would be over quickly. In 1945 the USSR still had a monstrously large army, which had just gone from the Ukraine to Germany in under a year. The mortality rate in the GULAG was microscopically small compared to a Nazi death camp. The purges of the 1930s were already behind us. So I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Poland would lose another 6 million people in a struggle with the USSR. It would still lose hundreds of thousands, unnecessarily - this I don't debate.

Stick to the topic of the thread please

Life / Poland's birthrate on the decline [480]

Actually, correction to above point - Poland did not permanently lose all 7.8M people to the USSR. A large part (not sure exactly how many) were transferred from now-Soviet territory to the lands annexed from Germany and added to Poland, following the deportation of Germans (-750K German pop as seen in above chart). So as the Germans moved out, Poles from the Kresy came back in.

Life / Poland's birthrate on the decline [480]

@GefreiterKania

I agree. If Britain and America didn't have the appetite to start an immediate hot war with the USSR, it would certainly be stupid for Poland to ride out into the vanguard. I can't believe there are people that would argue for this as a sensible thing to do.

In other news, I found another wiki article, which is specific to Historical Demographics of Poland. Link:

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_Poland

I like this article quite a lot. Would recommend quickly skimming through it.

An example of the cool tables inside, is one I'm attaching below. Just this one chart contains the answer to the people that say USSR=THIRD REICH. Of course, 150K dead Poles is nothing to be proud of, as a Russian, but at least I can tell myself it was 38X less than the amount the Germans killed. On the other hand, you can also see from this chart that Poland lost more people to the USSR through cession of territories than it did to the Nazis through deaths. This is the rest of the missing third (the Jews being the other part). Mostly Ukrainians and Belarusians that became Soviet citizens. A silver lining from this data also, is that the population of ethnic Poles has still almost doubled between 1931 and 2022, from 20M to 38M.

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Life / Poland's birthrate on the decline [480]

@GefreiterKania

It's impossible to wrap one's mind around that number. My brain just can't compute what it means to lose a third over such a short period of time.

From that same wiki article, something else surprised me. It's not specific to Poland, but just something wonderful about the guiding hand of nature, or God, in demographics. Quote:

Females were in the majority in the country. In 1931, there were 105.6 women for 100 men. In 1946, the difference grew to 118.5/100, but in subsequent years, number of males grew, and in 1960, the ratio was 106.7/100.

How the heck does that happen? How do wombs all around Poland synchronize and say to each other - "Ok, now for a bit we only make boys!"? Nature truly is amazing.

Another paragraph that surprised me:

"Before World War II, the Polish lands were noted for the variety of their ethnic communities. Following the Polish-Soviet War, a large part of its population belonged to national minorities. The census of that year allocates 30.8% of the population in the minority."

Out of a population of 31M in 1931, only 20M or so were Poles. Contrast that to post-war Poland which is remarkable for its homogeneity. That's a radical change. Usually I think people think of this change as a result of the Holocaust, but these numbers show that were was clearly a lot of other things going on too.