History / Poland is great Mother of all Slavs from Baltic to Balkan [211]

My God - we are arriving in the end times.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [226]

The EU is the key to this whole question.

Right now - if NATO truly dies - the replacement will be built on the EU carcass.

This is the most likely scenario. Not your scenario of cobbling together some Frankenstein alliance from a series of bilateral agreements.

Macron, Von Der Leyen, Tusk, Meloni - they are driving the train in this direction.

If some country like Poland suddenly announces - "to hell with your Supra-European army, we will build an alliance with Turkey and Norway" - it will be viewed extremely negatively by Brussels and probably Germany and France.

The only happy people would be the British, who would arrive first and ask where they can sign to join this alliance. Britain is being left out in the cold, with neither America nor Europe paying it consideration. Today, Macron pushed through the requirement that the $150B defense fund can only be spent with European defense manufacturers - excluding Britain.

When you are doing something that only Britain is happy about, you should know you are doing something wrong.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [226]


The big question - I suppose - is does it produce a net positive gain for Germany over the long run.

The Euro is essentially the Deutschmark in disguise. Germany has managed to avoid having an extremely strong currency, by diffusing it across the entire continent. While things became substantially more expensive for Greeks and Portuguese, before they were able to meaningfully compete - the Germans were rewarded with a "weak" Euro which turbocharged Germany's exports to number 1 in the world.

We can look at the example of Poland, no? In 2004, Polish German bilateral trade was approx €25B. In 2022, it was already €167B. Since 2020, Poland has overtaken Italy as Germany's 5th biggest trading partner.

Germany now sells Poland almost $100B of goods annually. This is good for Germany - I would think.

So the question then, is could Ukraine be a similarly good "investment" for Germany? There are arguments for and against.

Many people have argued the "for", so I will argue against:

1) Ukraine in 2025 and Poland in 2004 are different animals. First and foremost demographically. Poland in 2004 was a much younger country, with a structurally larger labor pool than modern Ukraine. Ukraine is now a land of pensioners.

2) Ukraine is destroyed by war, and Poland in 2004 was not.

3) Ukraine is substantially more corrupt than Poland in 2004, or even Bulgaria and Romania in 2004 - and that's saying a lot.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [226]


Care to explain?

In 2004, ten countries joined the EU, with a combined population of 75 million people.

The original members were able to pull this weight without breaking their backs.

Now a much expanded and considerably wealthier EU has to absorb approx 30M Ukrainians.

Should be easy, no?

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [226]


Orban can be made to see Ukraine's accession favorably.

Orban's big thing, which angers his neighbors and the domestic liberal opposition, is handing out Hungarian passports to ethnic Hungarians living in Slovakia, Romania, and other places.

These "Non-Resident Hungarians" then deliver Orban big election wins. They are essentially guaranteed to vote for him.

There is in Ukraine a sizable Hungarian minority. It lives in the Transcarpathian Oblast. Orban has given all of them Hungarian passports. He uses the defense of their interests as a cover for him running offense for Putin otherwise.

Anytime people begin accusing Orban of being Putin's puppet, he trots out the issue of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine.

So what I think Orban would want in exchange for lifting a veto is Ukraine carving out a large degree of autonomy for its Hungarians. Also, Ukraine resuming supplies of Russian gas and oil to Hungary.

What other countries do you think are staunch opponents of Ukrainian membership? I can think of at least one more - Slovakia. It has similar hangups as Hungary - defense of Slovakian minority and access to Russian energy via Ukraine.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [226]


It is a virtual certainty that Ukraine will join the EU.

Even Putin recently said that Russia recognizes Ukraine's sovereign right to join the EU, but not NATO.

The Eastern Europeans in Brussels - like Kaja Kallas - always talk up the idea of Ukraine joining rapidly. Tusk has talked about it. Pavel in Czechia has spoken about it.

Turkey - meanwhile - had signed its Association Agreement with the EU back in 1963 (Ukraine did in 2013). It applied for full membership in 1987 (when such a country as Ukraine did not yet exist).

Then several things happened. First the Berlin Wall fell, and German Reunification started. Then the Soviet Union collapsed. Nobody had much interest to discuss Turkey in this context.

The "nail in the coffin" came in 2004, when Cyprus was admitted. Cyprus will never allow Turkey to join, without Turkey deoccupying Northern Cyprus. Turkey will never de-occupy Cyprus.

So... Turkish authoritarianism, or lack of progress in reforms, etc - is all a sham. Erdogan has only been around for 20 years, and only for ten of those has he been acting like a dictator. Meanwhile, Turkey has been facing a brick wall in admissions long before that.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [226]

Turkey could be as democratic as Denmark and have a transgender Prime Minister - and it would still not be admitted into the EU.

This is what Erdogan says, at least.

He thinks, and I think so too - that the real reason it is not being admitted, is because Turkey is Muslim.

Corrupt, dysfunctional, and war-torn Ukraine is literally being dragged into the EU. But Turkey which has been waiting since the 1980s, will have to wait some more.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [226]


Give me what you are smoking bro.

Sweden's Charles XII was the Napoleon of his age - in the bad sense of the word. He was going around burning everything in Poland, in Denmark, and in Russia. Your Augustus II and Denmark's Frederick helped us put the Swedes back in their place.

You forgot what was the Deluge? You gonna defend Swedes in front of me now?

Thank God Peter broke them at Poltava! They never recovered from that loss. Serves them right.

Turks did nothing but cause huge butthurt in Russia for about 500 years. Them, and their Crimean Tatar vassals, kidnapped LITERALLY millions of Russians, and sold them into Turkish slavery through the Genoese ports in Crimea. They thought their Black Sea would protect them, but we found our way into their lands both from the east and the west. Again - due desserts.

Poland is a little different. You attacked us first, however.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [226]


Lol.

The three champions of getting their ass kicked by Russia.

All three countries had their "greatness" broken by a collision with Russia.

The last war Sweden had with Russia, led it to permanently losing Finland. Earlier wars saw them get kicked out of the Southern Baltic and northwestern Russia.

Poland not necessary to mention.

Turks literally lost 8 wars to Russia - in a row. In the last war, France and Britain had to send hundred of thousands of men to Crimea to prevent the loss of Istanbul.

Maybe make something better than this club of battered wives?

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [226]


I agree these rankings are nonsense, but we have Jon here - mighty defender of Erdogan and simultaneous lover of democracy.

I wanted to show Jon who his idol really is. If Jon thinks it is unhygienic to deal with Russia, then it should apply to Turkey as well.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [226]


The University of Wurzburg produces an annual democracy index. The tiers are "working democracy", "deficient democracy", "hybrid regime", "moderate autocracy", and "hard autocracy".

Guess where Turkey ranks? It got rated a "moderate autocracy", and landed 137th out of 176 countries ranked. Russia is on 144st place.

Some countries that ranked higher than Turkey? Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, and Lebanon. Kyrgyzstan is a deficient democracy, whereas Pakistan and Lebanon have "hybrid regimes".

So... Turkey is about as democratic as Russia. Also, it's engaged in the ethnic cleansing of a minority group, both within its own borders and in neighboring Syria. Also, it allies itself to the most odious fundamentalist organizations in the region - that even countries like Saudi and UAE do not recognize and view as terroristic.

Source: democracymatrix.com/ranking

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [226]


This growth is a joke, you can't be serious.

I checked just now - the key interest rate in Turkey is 42.5%. For more than half a year it was at 50%. This is the price for all of Erdogan's mucking about with artificially low interest rates in prior years, and constant increases to the Turkish minimum wage.

Fancy buying an apartment with a 42.5% mortgage, Jon? Leasing a car? Financing a TV or refrigerator?

Inflation in February was 39% in annual terms, a slight improvement from 42% in January.

This rampant inflation, means that prices in Istanbul are approaching London and Paris levels, while Turks earn on average only $13,000 a year. Average Turks can not afford to eat out, let alone visit any of their country's famed resort towns.

I can also draw all sorts of fantastic GDP growth numbers, but for normal people it is these metrics which are key for judging the economy's health.

Like I said - tourism and exports (although tourism is a type of export) are where it's good. Turkish airlines for example - is killing it. It gets paid for its tickets in euros and dollars, while paying its staff pennies in Lira.

Turkish textiles are doing great. Turkish defense companies are doing great. And so on, and so forth.

However, you can't build an economy for 85 million people on tourism and manufacturing. Modern economies are dominated by services, and most of the population works in services. For them life is sh*t.

Erdogan has a Sultan's understanding of economics. Manufacturing exports are surging - I must be doing a great job! People's wages are stagnating? Why let me double them by decree! Housing has suddenly become unaffordable? I'll force the banks to loan to people at artificially low rates!

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [226]


Actually it is not. In the Middle East only Iran has a lower birth rate. With a total fertility rate of 1.51, Turkey now makes fewer babies per capita than France, Bulgaria or Romania.

This is according to the Polish Centre for Eastern Studies: osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2024-08-07/turkey-a-looming-demographic-crisis

In big cities like Istanbul - Turks don't make babies at all.

Also, Tacitus is right - their economy is in the dumps. However, Erdogan has since been forced to appoint a normal central bank head, that has begun to implement orthodox policies aimed at reining in inflation and fx volatility. There was simply no more energy left in the Turkish economy, for him to continue his wild experiments with Erdonomics.

Still - Turkey faces massive problems with youth unemployment (on a Spanish/Italian scale) and stagnating incomes. The only people that do well in Turkey are exporters and people from the tourism sector. They benefit from a cheap lira, and the fact that their earnings are largely in Euro or USD.

So it may seem fantastic while visiting as a foreigner, but it is certainly not nearly as fun for the locals.


You pointed out Eastern Europe and Scandinavia as opponents of resuming energy imports, but you forgot to mention the main one. The United States.

By far the greatest beneficiary of the shutdown of Nord Stream I & II, and older pipelines - were the American producers of LNG, and operators of American LNG export terminals like Chenniere and Venture Global.

As much as Trump is in love with Putin, this is one the victories over Russia that he likes to tout. Biden did too.

Europe represents the deepest and most expensive gas market in the world. Before their access to Europe, American companies were struggling to sell their gas for a small fraction of the price they now sell it for to Europe. In some instances - the price difference is 10X between what they were getting and what they are earning now.

Resuming supplies from Russia means the market goes back to its old mix of 30-40% Russia, 20-30% Norway, and rest from places like Algeria and Azerbaijan. It means American terminals, sitting on the Gulf of Mexico, now have to ship freight to Asia - where prices are often worse than in Europe, and the journey much longer.

Trump got elected, in part, on the promise of ushering in an era of "American energy dominance" and "Drill, Baby Drill" as he says. Killing a bunch of American oil and gas companies, and leaving the gulf coast littered with shuttered terminals kind of conflicts with that idea.

I think if Germany starts importing gas through Nord Stream again, it will work for a few months, and then it will mysteriously explode again. And again nobody will be able to say who did it, or for what reason, and instead everyone will have strong amnesia.

Food / What Polish foods do foreigners generally not take to? [139]


Source: kommersant.ru/doc/153729

Russia's leading business journal. Author - famous Andrei Kolesnikov. Year - 2000.

Quote:

"Here I finally find the person I have been looking for for a long time - Antonina Ivanovna Rtishcheva, a famous Voronezh mycologist, that is, a specialist in mushrooms. Antonina Ivanovna is an associate professor at Voronezh State University, the author of several books on mushrooms and an international specialist.

She will explain everything.

Antonina Ivanovna admitted that she cannot stay in the city for long, because, like a wolf, she is always looking into the forest. She needs to be as close to her mushrooms as possible. And we went into the forest."

So I was wrong it was a man - it was a woman.

Continued:

"...

- and you, you have never tried poisonous mushrooms?

*I shuddered* - Haven't tried it.

- Oh but I know them all by heart. True, they don't like it, but I'm very careful... I clean some part of the mushroom from the soil and lick it. Some don't feel anything or feel only some kind of bitterness. But I feel something completely different! I have a very special relationship with them, but I probably shouldn't tell anyone about it, because, you know, people are different and may not understand it correctly.

See, here is the mycologist which licks toxic mushrooms.

The whole article is about how Russians get poisoned by mushrooms, and yet continue eating them until they finally die. In the article there are numerous examples, where people are dying from poisoning by mushrooms, and attempt to escape their hospital bed to go find more mushrooms.

I think you do not understand how much Russians love mushrooms. Ukrainians love mushrooms too.

Off-Topic / Random Chat Thread [1078]

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Off-Topic / Random Chat Thread [1078]

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Food / What Polish foods do foreigners generally not take to? [139]

Read this article in a Ukrainian paper just now:

life.pravda.com.ua/health/na-bukovini-sim-ya-otrujilasya-gribami-307008/?

A mother is dead, and a father and son hospitalized after picking some poisonous mushrooms over the weekend.

In Russia we have these idiots too. Every spring we have dozens of people that die from eating poisonous mushrooms.

I once read an article in a Russian paper, where the journalist interviews a Russian mycologist (person who studies fungi). The mycologists spends a lot of time arguing that it is virtually impossible for people
To differentiate between certain types of poisonous mushrooms and edible ones. Then, when the journalists asks the mycologist if he is planning to go "mushrooming" on the weekend - he replies "yes, of course". Hahaha!

The journalist asks the mycologist why he goes mushrooming if he knows it's so dangerous, and the person begins to explain that he can tell if something is poisonous or not by licking it. If it's toxic, a lick would not be enough to kill you, but instead only
make you vomit profusely and have potentially hallucinatory seizures. At this point the journalist concludes that mushroomers are mentally sick people - and so did I.

Is this a popular mental illness in Poland?

History / Why Poland is not Russia [260]


We don't have nearly as many insults for Poles, which means you are much lower on the Russian hierarchy than Ukrainians.

The only popular insulting nickname for Poles, is common to both Russians and Ukrainians - Pshek - making fun of the snakelike language. Also there is Kurwy - but that must sound strange to a Pole since it is a literal insult.

The other nicknames for Poles are kind of neutral. There is Lyakhi. There is Pany (always meant ironically). There is Szlachcic (also, always ironic).

History / Why Poland is not Russia [260]


Insults mean people still care. It means people remember :) It is worse when they say nothing at all.

This is why between Russians and Ukrainians there is such a wealth of names for each other. Because of the great love.

Russian names for Ukrainians:

1) Saloyed - lard eater. Ukrainians consume industrial quantities of pork fat. That is why they resemble pigs themselves. You are what you eat.

2) Ukropithecus - this name underlines the lower step on the evolutionary ladder that Ukrainians occupy, somewhere between a chimpanzee and Homo sapiens.

3) Maidown - this combines two words - Maidan + Down's Syndrome. No explanation necessary.

4) Finno-Ukrs - they always call us Finno-Ugrs, and tell us to go back to Hungary.

5) Neraby - means "Notslave". They constantly tell us we are slaves, and they are not slaves. So we call them Notslaves.

6) Svidomites - A Ukranian always talks about his Ukranian consciousness, or the fact that he is svidomiy (Polish: świadomi). We combine this word with sodomite to produce Svidomite.

7) Mykola - Mykola is the Ukranian version of the name Nikolai. It sounds retarded, like everything in Ukrainian. So it is used as catch-all term for Ukrainians.

Ukrainians names for Russians:

1) Lapti - Lapti are traditional shoes worn by Russians, Balts and Finns made out of birch bark. The Ukrainians find it endlessly funny that Russians wear shoes made out of bark.

2) Kozlomordiye - literally means the "goat faced ones". Supposedly came about because Russians wore beards, and Ukrainians didn't.

3) Boyarishniki - boyarishnik is the Russian and Ukrainian term for Hawthorn, a type of plant. There is also a type of rubbing alcohol that is sold in pharmacies called "Boyarishnik". Poorer Russians drink these sometimes, after which they go blind or die. Ukrainians think this is very funny.

4) Borscht/Borschikha - sometimes Russian men are called Borshcts and Russian women Borschikhas. This... despite Ukrainians claiming that they invented Borscht. The idea is that it is funny to call someone the same thing as a soup made of cabbage and beets.

5) Natashas - what Turks and Arabs called prostitutes in the 1990s. Not funny, because Ukraine exports way more prostitutes. Also the name Natasha is the same in Ukrainian. They are making fun of themselves - retards.

News / Building regional alliance to stabilize Eastern Europe. [226]


Hahaha!

It is not Keir Starmer.

As much as I hate to say this, the pre-eminent leader is Macron (outside our Father and Savior Putin).

Macron is the longest serving - making him the "elder statesman" of the lot.

As president of France he is probably the most powerful president in the EU, because France has such a powerful presidency. Macron has the freedom to do many more things than Starmer.

Macron is actually in the EU unlike Starmer.

Macron has a bigger army than Starmer.

France has a larger and totally independent nuclear deterrent.

History / Why Poland is not Russia [260]


Don Quixote: "Thy wisdom, Sancho, is unmatched among squires, and thy words shine like pearls from the mouth of Solomon himself."

Sancho Panza: "I speak plain words, sir, but if your worship finds pearls in them, I will sell them at the next market."

Always a pleasure to observe two Polish patriots recognize each other's moral superiority.


Impressive. Very impressive... Take notes you lousy Brits.

Let's dissect this etymologically for the benefit of our foreign readers. There are three root words here:

1) Srać, or in Russian «Срать». Meaning, to defecate.

2) Rus' - an archaic or stylized name for Russia, often poetic in tone.

3) Goblinia - this word combines the term "goblin" with the suffix "-inia". This can be especially upsetting to a Russian, since the -inia suffix hints at a location in Western Slavic lands like Volhynia, Pomerania, Ruthenia. Russian regions tend to use endings like "-iya" and "-skaya" instead.

In the end we have multiple layers of insults. First the scatological jab - where Russia's good name is literally mixed with excrement.

Second, there is the Goblin aspect - a creature typically associated simultaneously with cunning AND stupidity. Both greedy and violent - it is a more nuanced dig at Russian character than simply calling them orcs.

Third, the "-inia" Western Slavic suffix - implies that Russia is just another peripheral "goblin-infested backwater," putting it in the same ranks as other obscure or rural-sounding regions on the edge of the Slavic world.

Watch and learn Neuf, Maf, Jon. Feel the difference - as they say.

History / Why Poland is not Russia [260]


Interesting choice of analogy.

Pericles lost Athens the Peloponnesian War. His foolish policy of gathering all the population behind the walls of the city, and relying on the navy to punish the Spartans - led to overcrowding and then a plague. The plague wiped out the citizenry, including Pericles himself.

Sparta (stupid Orc Sparta, no ships, no money, just meat) won the war, and then started the period of Spartan hegemony. Fans of Pericles do not like to remember this.

Many Russian specialists and Sovietologists in the West also liked to understand the Cold War as a battle between Athens and Sparta.

History / Why Poland is not Russia [260]

Poland is not Russia, because it is Poland.

Why does no one ask why Russia is not Poland?

Off-Topic / Random Chat Thread [1078]

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News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [669]

@pawian

What you said could be said by any Russian, from any point in history.

"We are poor; and we are neck deep in sh*t, but we have the Truth".

Truth with a capital T.

News / Future of Polish-Ukrainian relations [669]


Wow, such a Russian point of view!

Feedback / Who deserves to inherit Polish Forums? [339]


Hahaha, oh man... this is good!

Off-Topic / Why does Geddy Lee hate Poland? [105]


You certainly know about this much more than I do, so I have no choice but to trust you.

A tale most sad.

Off-Topic / Why does Geddy Lee hate Poland? [105]


No.


Oh my dear sweet summer child....

Not only people that hate Poland cannot give a sh*t about Poland.

Those that hate Poland constitute perhaps 1% of the total mass.

Off-Topic / Why does Geddy Lee hate Poland? [105]


Yes of course you do - but is Rush obligated to give you this recognition? Why not some musician in Buenos Aires or in Bangkok?


Again, this is possible... but is it Rush's cross to bear?