News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Duda is done. PiS is done. The whole move to authoritarian government is done. Once they tried to censor music by eliminating a song today about K they lost a lot of support from nationalist youth.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

I watched Trzaskowski on TVN last night. Duda doesn't stand a chance in a debate with him. Openly promising to cancel the TVP financial support immediately and give the money to Cancer treatment? How many votes did he win with that statement? This guy is smart, tested in leading the largest city in Poland, and I think he can cross the generational gap that exists between PiS and opposition supporters. KK and Holownia are good options, but neither can really mount a fight against Trzaskowski.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

I am going to put my money on the opposition. I think PiS has run its course. Too many people lost jobs and too many companies closed their doors under PiS. Whether it was pandemic or not, PiS will be held responsible by the people who lost. People in the countryside that depend on tourist money as they pass through or spend the weekend have been hurt a lot. Restaurants have been decimated, and those employees wont be finding new jobs with the new dining rules. Hotels the same. Extending the EU border controls the other day isn't going to help them either as more tourism damage is taking place.

This guy from Warsaw is educated, very intelligent, and the people seem to gravitate to him. Duda wont be able to match this guy. Particularly when they start talking about how to pay for all the money they gave away to large business and how none of it got to the people who really needed it, the small business owner and their employees.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

And the televised demonstrations in Warsaw today from business owners who didn't get any of the shield money are not going to help them either.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

This will be the end of PiS when people see the financial ruin, and come out from quarantine.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Based on what I read, everyone will be present to vote down this proposed law at 10 pm this evening. They had until 11 to vote. Then Duda could possibly resign triggering a new election in August. Personally I dont think Duda has the balls to resign and be the face in history as throwing Poland into a Political state of emergency during a pandemic. Something tells me, the vote will take place in June or July with regular procedures. This gives PiS enough time to pass their abortion laws and get rid of judges. Looks like JK may have over played his hand.

@mafketis

Numbers down again today. Would have been below 300 if not for another coal mine cluster. Every day that passes gives the pandemic less power, and in effect PiS less power. Soon everyone will see the economic devastation when they leave their homes. Spoke to a friend today at PKO leasing, they can not keep up with the number of cars being turned in early because people cant afford their payments.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

IF it is not supported in the Sejm then the vote will have to be postponed. My understanding anyway. If the vote is postponed, Duda is done, and so is PiS. Look for more games to be played tomorrow.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

But no one else is paying attention? usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-05-05/polands-senate-leader-accuses-ruling-pis-of-election-by-post-trickery

PiS games are really third world level. A strong competitor would never fear a fair election or seek these changes. The strong competitor would give a delay to the opposition because he has no fear in the election. Everyone knows a mail in election is a joke. People not in the country with a right to vote would be denied their right to vote. That in itself is enough that it should make anyone question this. Why would anyone seek to deny a citizens rights?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

The do care what the USA thinks. And the USA is now starting to talk about how elections are being handled.

Dont get me wrong, I agree with PiS policy on immigration, and many of their other nationalistic positions. But their economic policy and fiscal management will break Poland eventually. The right hand is Republican and the left is Democratic. Really a split personality.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

@kondzior

You are joking about Kaczyński and the Golden Age of Poland right? The Potato is a joke in global circles of politics, and Poland is loosing respect in the global community for how this election is being handled.

Travel / Will corona kill my plans? Travel to Poland [18]

Just booked a group flight round trip for 23 people on LOT for end of July and first week of August. Don't buy into the paranoia about travel. Poland will be open, and it is pretty easy to see its one of the safest places to travel to. Once the election is over, probably on John Paul II birthday May 17, another miracle will happen and everything will be declared safe. (insert eyes rolling here)

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

This mail in election may backfire on them. I could be wrong, but I dont think people are happy with how this is being handled and they may vote against Duda just because of it. I think enough people could go against Duda to cause a run off and then he could lose. Thats best case scenario I think.

News / Poles say a big YES to our European Union [996]

@delphiandomine

And passing things in the middle of the night with a small margin because the opposition was home sleeping. This really has the look and feel of being more like a high school run election than one of the largest countries in Europe. Its a pretty simple thing. If the crisis is over, have a vote, if not then postpone. Any other discussion than that is really about putting personal interests ahead of peoples lives.

Law / Maximum daily limit for international bank transfer to/out of Poland [11]

I wired money from US in USD on Friday, was in my account this morning. Have sent money the other way, and never a question or restriction. PEKAO Bank has been very good.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

Was interesting yesterday I went to get some bread, and i went to the local outdoor market, and while it was no where near as crowded as it would be on a nice day, there were still plenty of people shopping in close quarters. Plenty of vendors. No one wearing gloves or masks. Some are clearly taking risk in order to keep cash flowing.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@Cargo pants

Better off just to have a small local place and buy at a little higher price from wholesalers. Thank you for the heads up.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@delphiandomine

Thank you, I will have attorney review.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@Cargo pants

Can you imagine all the beer going bad?! I hadn't thought about that. Huge loss there, but I am sure local breweries will have some kind of programs to help owners that make it through this.

You may be right on Poles not selling until they need it. Those that have paid in full property will be the last. Its those that are mortgaged that will try to get something back from what they have paid in. Young people know when to take money off the table.

I am looking at a Zabka franchise now. One thing that isn't suffering is Zabka and other stores selling those items everyone needs and wants, and that will never change.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

Hypothetically, I flip 100K USD to 450K PLN. At that point real estate is definitely coming down. That IMO is a smart time to buy. I just walked Rynek and some side streets. Some business's that were open a month ago we now empty with for rent signs on them. Most of them the smaller mom and pop shops, but some with good locations. I have to believe, that at the end of the month, when people cant pay rent on May 1, more deals will be there to be had.

While good for me as I look to diversify, this is clearly going to be devastating for young locals just starting out and older people who were just getting by. Its 4 weeks ago since warnings were given here, and in less than a week it will be 4 weeks that social distancing and other measures were instituted. While each day drags on for the most part, in business terms, time is flying, and time is money.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

I am looking at it from an business standpoint. The PLN I bought yesterday at 4.2 goes into an account to buy other business opportunity as prices com down. Making my USD outlay lower. IF I dont find a good business opportunity and I am wrong, when the exchange rate is more favorable to PLN, I buy back USD and make at least 10% simply because I made the bargain purchase. This is simple math.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@cms neuf

I am buying PLN. Maybe you misunderstood. 1 USD to 4,6 or 5.15 PLN. 1 USD is already 4.24 PLN today. Up from 3.8 PLN a month ago.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

Reading some forecasts for currencies over the last 24 hours. 90 day forecast for PLN is 4.6 to 5.15 on the USD. These are historical marks if reached. Currently nearing historical marks now. Looking at the last 30 years of exchange rates we are close to uncharted territory.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@BritboyByd

Agreed. I think outstanding debt is being underestimated by most people except the government. Of note is the thee month non payment window established as one of the very first relief items. This coming after banks chimed in on what was going on. I suspect the banks clued the government in on what a disaster the credit market could become if there was no relief.

I have a friend in this credit business. Getting people 10 year loans for a BMW for instance when there is no way someone making 5000 pln per month should be buying a BMW. Getting people mortgages on property they will be able to pay for only if they are eating raman noodles for the next 20 years.

While this three month window will help, when jobs do not come back, what then? When the 2 million migrant Ukraine workers do not all come back to fill jobs, and rent apartments that were bought on mortgage, what then? When these developers are selling "investment", and "managed rental" properties, many of these owners are young and inexperienced business people trying to make a move in life. Great effort with really good execution until something like this happens. It will certainly be interesting to watch.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@delphiandomine

Wealth is relative. I had some wealthy friends in USA who are no longer wealthy after the stock markets tanked. Spoke to some friends in Real Estate there. Mortgages and refinance applications are in the toilet, and values coming down already.

How "credit" effect Poland will be interesting. I suspect, based on the number of "credit" company's everywhere working on bank commissions for obtaining loans for clients that there will be a lot more issues here than people expect. I see Poland very similarly as how I saw USA before 2008. Everything was great until disaster struck because no one was prepared for anything other than the success they had been experiencing.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@BritboyByd

LOL at stimulus package. I learned a long time ago, that real people buy real things. Owning a small business and staying in touch with people on the front lines of life will tell you more about the economy and markets than any economist or fund manager. The US stimulus package is a joke, and Poland's package isn't going to come close to whats needed for the people on the front lines.

While governments around the world are racing to save large corporations with bailouts, and access to funding, the real money behind every free market economy is with small business owners. Polish people should know this as well.

That said, a crash in value on PLN is unlikely. Though I am now buying as much as I can for when things level off. Making 7 to 10 percent just buying a currency is never a bad thing.

Have to agree with Cargo pants, there is no free lunch or easy deals in Poland. There are some nice deals out there but you have to look, and usually it helps to know someone. Again, comes from being on the ground and in touch with people on the front lines.

I thought I could come to Poland an make a killing two years ago. Took me about six months to figure out that I had to make a lot of friends before I could start making a killing. Same as everywhere else, your network will be invaluable. If you dont have one, you will pay for it here.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

That's the problem I think. Real estate here is largely price dirven by the real estate agents telling these owners the "value". So owners in certain markets have unrealistic values placed on certain properties. The real estate market here IMO opinion is very inexperienced when it comes to judging market values and what is actually a salable item and what isn't. When an apartment is listed for about 14000/M2 and it has not been remodeled in 30 years, but the agent determines the value on "comps" in the new buildings around this apartment, you have unrealistic values in many places. This is simply a disservice to the current owner. Its done this way because the buyer is paying the agent, so the agent tries to soak the buyer. When it should be the seller paying. Backward.

For instance; I laughed at a guy who wanted to try to sell me the "ventilation" he had installed for his restaurant to open. Even though it couldn't be removed he thought the completion cost was actually the value of the required equipment for him to operate previously. No depreciation, nothing. Completely ignorant that the hood was over 5 years old, and a replacement could be bought new for less than 2000 pln. The restaurant is currently closed, making no money, so its not even an ongoing concern. I actually laughed in the realtors face not his, but he saw me laugh. Now the same guy is trying to trade his restaurant, and over priced lease for a used car!

There will be a lot of empty store fronts and restaurants in Krakow this summer that's for sure.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@Cargo pants

Not interested in Warsaw market, but thank you for the offer. Going to stick in the south, Krakow or Katowice. I have 4 places I am keeping an eye on now. All turn key. The longer they sit the better IMO, and 3 have already dropped in price in last three weeks, two owned by Italians in Italy. Though the recovery will be slow, people always eat and drink, and eventually the tourists return.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@Cargo pants

If property sits vacant that long, then they are not very good business people. I like making money, not sitting on investments that aren't turning profits. When asked by a real estate agent why I was so passionate about buying a restaurant, I responded I am not passionate about restaurants, I am passionate about opportunity and making money. People with cash on hand, who are ready, will be able to take advantage of this market.

Sure, banks will reposes as soon as they can. But young people will want to get some of their investment back before they lose it all. Young people think differently than the people my age and up. They are a little quicker to cash out. The NASDAQ and DOW have proven that to be true. I suspect the same will prove true for those who look hard enough for deals here.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@delphiandomine

Actually I looked at the building and plenty have not been sold.

When looking at the current inventory, some of which have been listed for 6 or more months, those prices have been coming down. I have been tracking this market for two years, and the growth was and remains completely unsustainable. Coupled with a mass exodus of transient workers over this crisis and you will have owners with investment property scrambling in a few months.

Remember, most investors don't own dozens of properties, they own one or a few to create a nice monthly income. Many are bought on mortgage by younger people speculating in the market. Those people are now unemployed.

All I know is realtors are calling and emailing. They know inventory is very high, and buyers are few. Eventually those with cash will break those without it, it happens all the time. This will be no different the longer this crisis goes on.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@Cargo pants

You may be right. Maybe they wont sell at a loss. I will look at it the other way though. While this virus rages on in other countries and Europe recovers, tourism will not come back for months. Unemployment will continue to rise for at least three months after this event, on this continent and North America. Migrant Ukraine workers will not come back right away to fill the rental market. They will have spent their money on living in Ukraine, so service industries will also have a hard time recovering.

There is no quick stimulus that rescues a global economy. When a global event happens, this will take a year or years to recover from. When that happens, and people need money to eat and pay their own bills, they get rid of investments. Gold and valuables will come first. Real estate will come too. When there are only a few buyers, and too many sellers, people will bring prices down.