News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

@delphiandomine
Would you agree that Palade's formula for winning is near impossible to happen?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

@Torq
This goes against even the simplest logic of rational thought. Duda getting supporters from the opposition simply isn't going to happen. Everyone see's him for JK puppet. Even the international press are reporting how he is soft. Duda offers nothing new, nothing to make things better. He and JK are the past, they found this out when their colleagues forced them to abandon the May 10 vote. That was the first and biggest loss to date, the next will come when Duda cant win on June 28th.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Interesting how some think DUda can still win in this economic climate. Considering the most effected group has been the older segment of society, most likely to vote PiS, who are now scared to come out of the house, or think that wearing masks is a waste of time, are less likely to support him. Clearly he is a yes man for JK and no one really likes spineless people, and while PiS was able to buy votes before, the strategy isn't working this time. I dont think he can beat Trzaskowski or Holownia in the second round and that the opposition will rally around one candidate at that time.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

This is exactly the kind of news Duda wanted to avoid bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-20/wall-of-provisions-casts-shadows-over-europe-s-best-economy

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

@delphiandomine

Interesting polling numbers. I remember similar numbers Clinton Trump four years ago that ended up being completely wrong. Though the second round numbers are incredibly close this soon after the announcement. I have to believe the opposition will rally around Trzaskowski in round two, and if the economy keeps tanking PiS will see defections.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Duda is done. PiS is done. The whole move to authoritarian government is done. Once they tried to censor music by eliminating a song today about K they lost a lot of support from nationalist youth.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

I watched Trzaskowski on TVN last night. Duda doesn't stand a chance in a debate with him. Openly promising to cancel the TVP financial support immediately and give the money to Cancer treatment? How many votes did he win with that statement? This guy is smart, tested in leading the largest city in Poland, and I think he can cross the generational gap that exists between PiS and opposition supporters. KK and Holownia are good options, but neither can really mount a fight against Trzaskowski.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

I am going to put my money on the opposition. I think PiS has run its course. Too many people lost jobs and too many companies closed their doors under PiS. Whether it was pandemic or not, PiS will be held responsible by the people who lost. People in the countryside that depend on tourist money as they pass through or spend the weekend have been hurt a lot. Restaurants have been decimated, and those employees wont be finding new jobs with the new dining rules. Hotels the same. Extending the EU border controls the other day isn't going to help them either as more tourism damage is taking place.

This guy from Warsaw is educated, very intelligent, and the people seem to gravitate to him. Duda wont be able to match this guy. Particularly when they start talking about how to pay for all the money they gave away to large business and how none of it got to the people who really needed it, the small business owner and their employees.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

And the televised demonstrations in Warsaw today from business owners who didn't get any of the shield money are not going to help them either.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

This will be the end of PiS when people see the financial ruin, and come out from quarantine.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Based on what I read, everyone will be present to vote down this proposed law at 10 pm this evening. They had until 11 to vote. Then Duda could possibly resign triggering a new election in August. Personally I dont think Duda has the balls to resign and be the face in history as throwing Poland into a Political state of emergency during a pandemic. Something tells me, the vote will take place in June or July with regular procedures. This gives PiS enough time to pass their abortion laws and get rid of judges. Looks like JK may have over played his hand.

@mafketis

Numbers down again today. Would have been below 300 if not for another coal mine cluster. Every day that passes gives the pandemic less power, and in effect PiS less power. Soon everyone will see the economic devastation when they leave their homes. Spoke to a friend today at PKO leasing, they can not keep up with the number of cars being turned in early because people cant afford their payments.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

IF it is not supported in the Sejm then the vote will have to be postponed. My understanding anyway. If the vote is postponed, Duda is done, and so is PiS. Look for more games to be played tomorrow.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

But no one else is paying attention? usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-05-05/polands-senate-leader-accuses-ruling-pis-of-election-by-post-trickery

PiS games are really third world level. A strong competitor would never fear a fair election or seek these changes. The strong competitor would give a delay to the opposition because he has no fear in the election. Everyone knows a mail in election is a joke. People not in the country with a right to vote would be denied their right to vote. That in itself is enough that it should make anyone question this. Why would anyone seek to deny a citizens rights?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

The do care what the USA thinks. And the USA is now starting to talk about how elections are being handled.

Dont get me wrong, I agree with PiS policy on immigration, and many of their other nationalistic positions. But their economic policy and fiscal management will break Poland eventually. The right hand is Republican and the left is Democratic. Really a split personality.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

@kondzior

You are joking about Kaczyński and the Golden Age of Poland right? The Potato is a joke in global circles of politics, and Poland is loosing respect in the global community for how this election is being handled.

Travel / Will corona kill my plans? Travel to Poland [18]

Just booked a group flight round trip for 23 people on LOT for end of July and first week of August. Don't buy into the paranoia about travel. Poland will be open, and it is pretty easy to see its one of the safest places to travel to. Once the election is over, probably on John Paul II birthday May 17, another miracle will happen and everything will be declared safe. (insert eyes rolling here)

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

This mail in election may backfire on them. I could be wrong, but I dont think people are happy with how this is being handled and they may vote against Duda just because of it. I think enough people could go against Duda to cause a run off and then he could lose. Thats best case scenario I think.

News / Poles say a big YES to our European Union [996]

@delphiandomine

And passing things in the middle of the night with a small margin because the opposition was home sleeping. This really has the look and feel of being more like a high school run election than one of the largest countries in Europe. Its a pretty simple thing. If the crisis is over, have a vote, if not then postpone. Any other discussion than that is really about putting personal interests ahead of peoples lives.

Law / Maximum daily limit for international bank transfer to/out of Poland [11]

I wired money from US in USD on Friday, was in my account this morning. Have sent money the other way, and never a question or restriction. PEKAO Bank has been very good.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

Was interesting yesterday I went to get some bread, and i went to the local outdoor market, and while it was no where near as crowded as it would be on a nice day, there were still plenty of people shopping in close quarters. Plenty of vendors. No one wearing gloves or masks. Some are clearly taking risk in order to keep cash flowing.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@Cargo pants

Better off just to have a small local place and buy at a little higher price from wholesalers. Thank you for the heads up.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@delphiandomine

Thank you, I will have attorney review.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@Cargo pants

Can you imagine all the beer going bad?! I hadn't thought about that. Huge loss there, but I am sure local breweries will have some kind of programs to help owners that make it through this.

You may be right on Poles not selling until they need it. Those that have paid in full property will be the last. Its those that are mortgaged that will try to get something back from what they have paid in. Young people know when to take money off the table.

I am looking at a Zabka franchise now. One thing that isn't suffering is Zabka and other stores selling those items everyone needs and wants, and that will never change.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

Hypothetically, I flip 100K USD to 450K PLN. At that point real estate is definitely coming down. That IMO is a smart time to buy. I just walked Rynek and some side streets. Some business's that were open a month ago we now empty with for rent signs on them. Most of them the smaller mom and pop shops, but some with good locations. I have to believe, that at the end of the month, when people cant pay rent on May 1, more deals will be there to be had.

While good for me as I look to diversify, this is clearly going to be devastating for young locals just starting out and older people who were just getting by. Its 4 weeks ago since warnings were given here, and in less than a week it will be 4 weeks that social distancing and other measures were instituted. While each day drags on for the most part, in business terms, time is flying, and time is money.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

I am looking at it from an business standpoint. The PLN I bought yesterday at 4.2 goes into an account to buy other business opportunity as prices com down. Making my USD outlay lower. IF I dont find a good business opportunity and I am wrong, when the exchange rate is more favorable to PLN, I buy back USD and make at least 10% simply because I made the bargain purchase. This is simple math.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@cms neuf

I am buying PLN. Maybe you misunderstood. 1 USD to 4,6 or 5.15 PLN. 1 USD is already 4.24 PLN today. Up from 3.8 PLN a month ago.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

Reading some forecasts for currencies over the last 24 hours. 90 day forecast for PLN is 4.6 to 5.15 on the USD. These are historical marks if reached. Currently nearing historical marks now. Looking at the last 30 years of exchange rates we are close to uncharted territory.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@BritboyByd

Agreed. I think outstanding debt is being underestimated by most people except the government. Of note is the thee month non payment window established as one of the very first relief items. This coming after banks chimed in on what was going on. I suspect the banks clued the government in on what a disaster the credit market could become if there was no relief.

I have a friend in this credit business. Getting people 10 year loans for a BMW for instance when there is no way someone making 5000 pln per month should be buying a BMW. Getting people mortgages on property they will be able to pay for only if they are eating raman noodles for the next 20 years.

While this three month window will help, when jobs do not come back, what then? When the 2 million migrant Ukraine workers do not all come back to fill jobs, and rent apartments that were bought on mortgage, what then? When these developers are selling "investment", and "managed rental" properties, many of these owners are young and inexperienced business people trying to make a move in life. Great effort with really good execution until something like this happens. It will certainly be interesting to watch.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@delphiandomine

Wealth is relative. I had some wealthy friends in USA who are no longer wealthy after the stock markets tanked. Spoke to some friends in Real Estate there. Mortgages and refinance applications are in the toilet, and values coming down already.

How "credit" effect Poland will be interesting. I suspect, based on the number of "credit" company's everywhere working on bank commissions for obtaining loans for clients that there will be a lot more issues here than people expect. I see Poland very similarly as how I saw USA before 2008. Everything was great until disaster struck because no one was prepared for anything other than the success they had been experiencing.

News / How hard will Poland be hit by the economic crisis? [116]

@BritboyByd

LOL at stimulus package. I learned a long time ago, that real people buy real things. Owning a small business and staying in touch with people on the front lines of life will tell you more about the economy and markets than any economist or fund manager. The US stimulus package is a joke, and Poland's package isn't going to come close to whats needed for the people on the front lines.

While governments around the world are racing to save large corporations with bailouts, and access to funding, the real money behind every free market economy is with small business owners. Polish people should know this as well.

That said, a crash in value on PLN is unlikely. Though I am now buying as much as I can for when things level off. Making 7 to 10 percent just buying a currency is never a bad thing.

Have to agree with Cargo pants, there is no free lunch or easy deals in Poland. There are some nice deals out there but you have to look, and usually it helps to know someone. Again, comes from being on the ground and in touch with people on the front lines.

I thought I could come to Poland an make a killing two years ago. Took me about six months to figure out that I had to make a lot of friends before I could start making a killing. Same as everywhere else, your network will be invaluable. If you dont have one, you will pay for it here.