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Poland's aid to Ukraine if Russia invades - part 25 [1150]
You forgot to mention the highly trained dolphins
The four points that Bobko mentioned is not something to be mocked, Cms. It is something to carefully look at.
Of all the four points, the most expected one, cyber infrastructure attacks, is already happening and is very likely to scale up. Various forms of cyber/electronic warfare are already in use by Russia against Europe - power-grid hacks, GPS jamming/spoofing . Do you remember what I said about Putin being a coward? It all checks out also in case of cyber attacks - they are easier to deny and harder to attribute, so a perfect weapon of cowards, and also the severity of such attacks very often remains below the threshold of triggering full kinetic war (until, of course, enough is enough and a trigger point is reached).
The probability of the other three points taking place is also quite high in case of an open conflict, so you should at least recognize that what Bobko is writing is a rather reasonable summary of what many strategists (also ours, if you follow people like Bartosiak) say openly.
It will likely be unlike any war in our history as a species.
I wouldn't panic either, kiddo. All the things you mentioned can be countered and adjusted to. First: reroute traffic, use backup comms, increase cyber-defences for utilities and logistics, suspend high-risk satellite-dependent operations, increase marititime patrols and forensic inspection of all ship movement. Then: diperse and logically harden stocks, use alternative PNT, start our own full-scale cyber counter-operations, start preparing adequate deterrence responses. Europe is not as weak as Russian strategists seem to think - we have civilian resilience schemes (power, comms, banking), some of our additional logistics have already been positioned outside usual high-risk lanes, there are contingency plans for healthcare access (this is actually quite interesting), failover routes are even currently being re-tested, backups placed off-net - even a retard like me sees it all happening, so if your professionals don't see that and think that Russia can collapse our economy and and response ability on day 2 of the coming war, they need to think again. They need to think, full-stop.
You wrote here a couple of days ago that China cannot make Russia do stupid things, not in line with Russia's wider interest. Well, isn't this exactly what is happening? When given a choice, mostly by the EU/Germany, of being a West solid, long-term partner, or a China's vassal - you chose the latter in vain hope of restoring your doubtful imperial past. That's why I hate Putin - he's an idiot to do that, and I will keep saying--we are not at war with Russian people, Russian nation, but we will very likely be at war with the criminal putinist abomination of the government (and it will not end up very well for anybody in most scenarios).
So, if I had anything to say in Russia. If I could in any way influence the people in power.
I would say: think, think, think. I would also say: seriously reconsider what you are planning to do.
And the rest is, as usual, in the hands of Our Lord Jesus Christ and His Most Blessed Mother Saint Virgin Mary.
