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Nukes and Poland's Neutrality [99]
It depends on the alternatives.
The situation in which Poland might find herself in the Russkiy Mir would require a set of specific circumstances:
- the US withdrawing completely from Europe (about 25% chance)
- Ukraine losing the war decisively (about 50%)
- Russia managing to gather enough forces to attempt the conquest of Poland (50%)
- Poland failing to get nuclear weapons on time (80%)
- Poland failing to build sufficient conventional forces to make the invasion unprofitable (5%)
- French nuclear umbrella turning out to be a bluff (99%)
- Europe failing to unite sufficiently (50%)
- European NATO/EU countries not coming to Poland's aid (25%)
- even the closest allies (Scandinavia, Germany, Czechia) not joining the war on Poland's side (15%)
- the EU failing to get an extensive trade deal with China (a very important event, in case of likely American-Chinese trade war, and possibly conventional war) (50%)
- the EU failing to come to some sort of agreement with China after the US withdrawal (25%)
- China allowing Russia to go on a rampage in Europe, disrupting their trade and communication lines (10%)
... the joint probability of all these events taking place is about 0,0000006%, so not very likely (to put it mildly).
