News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]


No, hence the need to distribute them fairly across Europe.


Evidence such as? Those are undocumented refugees who have been (intentionally) not registered by Polish officials. That is just an excuse not to accept them.


Ukrainians are no more or less "real" refugees then people fleeing from Syria and Afghanistan. Following your logic, we shouldnt accept any of them wither, since they have all been safe in the countries bordering Germany.


Because we take our laws and values seriously? we don't have a clause in our asylum laws that ban people people with different skin colours and beliefs from claiming asylum. And we need to take in our fair share of refugees since we can not leave the border countries to take care of all arrivals. Because that led to the breakdown of Dublin and the mess we still are in.


This is such an empty slogan. What kind of perspective do young people in e.g. Afghanistan have right now? Say what you want about the refugees who make it to Europe, but they are not cowards. I wonder how many Europeans would be comfortable with risking their lifes on small boats in the Mediterranean. Just a reminder. After the Soviet Union crushed the uprising in 1953, the first reaction of many East Germans was not to try again, but to leave the country in such large numbers, that the GDR built a wall. At some point people will lose hope in making a living in their home country, and I can't blame anyone for losing hope in a Taliban-run Afghanistan.


Some countries have sure, and I'd count Germany amongst them as well, hence the need to lower the numbers of arrivals. But Europe has 500m people. We could easily deal with the current number of arrivals if they are distributed equally amongst the countries.

News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]


There are two flaws in your premise here.

1. Ukrainians are by no means universally welcomed by their host countries and there is a growing backlash against them.

2. The two largest groups of non-European refugees are from Syria and Afghanistan. Two groups of whom it can hardly be said that they don't have legitimate reasons to leave their countries.

Yes, refugees have in the past fled to neighbouring countries (though many fled further still) and stayed there until it was safe or they assimilated. Problem is, if those countries do not afford them the opportunity to assimilate, do not allow their children to go to school, and their home countries remain unsafe for many years, then you can't expect them to stay put. Which is what happened with e.g. many Syrians leaving Libanon and Turkey for Europe.

So saying that the Arab and African countries (which mind you are significantly poorer and unstable) should take care of the refugees is not only ignorant of how they are already doing this to a large degree, it also ignores the limit of what they can do.

News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]


This may come as a surprise to you, but they do. Turkey and Lebanon have taken in (several times) more Syrian refugees than all of Europe.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugees_of_the_Syrian_civil_war

90% of all Afghan refugees are living in Iran and Pakistan.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghan_refugees

News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]


They can if they stop peddling the illusion to their populations that they can keep offloading the burden to other countries. The reason why there is no European solution yet is because some governments - most prominently Poland - pretended that wasn't their problem, since the refugees were coming via Southern Europe. Which wasn't very far-thinking in the light of the current Ukrainian refugee crisis.]

We are currently observing how the mood is turning against Ukrainian refugees in countries who have taken in a disprortionate number of them. Not only is it likely that the war will continue for several more years, it is entirely possible that significantly more Ukrainians will be forced to flee down the line. The only vianle solution to this is relocating them to countries that haven't yet taken in many Ukrainians.

And that doesn't even include the possibility of further hostilities on the European continent. Russia may start a conflict against other European countries, or encourage its' allies in e.g. Serbia to start trouble in the Balkans. We need a European solution before this can happen.


Of course that is enough. If that was the standard the police applied, then this was rather accomodating towards Poland. Any refugee caught within a radius of 100 km around the border should be considered as coming from there. Refugees entering from Austria into Bavaria aren't going to travel to Görlitz im order to apply for asylum. That concerned only a couple of hundred refugees, and yet that was intolerable to Poland. If you are of the opinion that Poland shouldn't take any refugee back, fine. But then be honest about it and don't pretend you would be fine with Germany introducing far-reaching border controles that would prevent any refugee from leaving Poland.


Simple. Process their claims, share their identity in a European databank system, and if they turn up in a different country, take them back. They'll try to leave once or twice, and then they'll stay since they can not apply for social benefits before being identified.


Pretty much all refugees have entered their host country illegally so that is a non-answer.

News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]


Nonsense. German police only attempted to return a fraction of the arrivals from Poland and only those who were caught near the border. And even those few cases, who undeniably came from Poland were not acceptable for Poland.


It is one of the two possible solution. Either we leave the border countries to process all asylum claims, which we used to do until they could no longer handle the strain, or the EU decides to relocate the refugees and each country takes in their share based on its' wealth and population size. Which is where we are now heading towards, but we could have reached that point years ago, if not for Poland's short-sighted obstruction.


You want to make every Ukrainian fleeing from Putin's war a criminal?

News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]


And even that was unacceptable to Poland. They made a fuzz about a few returned refugees, what would their reaction be if they were stuck with every single migrant who makes it across the Polish-Belarus border?


Finding a European solution for the refugee crisis. Now where have I heard that before?

German chancellor calls for 'European solution' on migration

politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-calls-for-european-solution-on-migration/

Just a reminder that Poland spent years sabotaging any attempts at finding such a solution because they thought it wasn't their problem since those refugees arrived via Southern Europe.

News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]


Better than to be deceived by simple slogans and solutions. Especially if we can already observe the problems with them.

What was the reaction in Poland when Germany sent back refugees who tried to cross the Polish-German border? Did they say: "Finally, Germany is protecting its' borders like it should have done years ago! And of course we will take back that refugee who tried to cross the Oder near Frankfurt and who arrived in Poland via Belarus."?

News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]


When would this crisis be considered "solved' though? As long as a single refugee arrives, the AfD will claim that the problem is not solved. The number of new arrivals has gone down by more than 60% compared to last year. Maybe it can be reduced to less than 100k per year, but this number will never go much lower than that.

The UK has left the EU, had Tory governments that were tough on refugees and - perhaps most importantly - are an island, yet they had roughly 100k refugee applications last year.

We will never be able to back to the times when we had a few thousand refugees per year. That is simply no longer possible, given the world we live in today.


I havent read the book yet. But the author found apparantly evidence for that from the time back then when Höcke was still a teacher.


We are not living in a dictatorship but in a democracy with the rule of law and separations of power. This is something I think people are forgetting. The government doesnt enjoy unlimited power, least of all the federal government which is subject to so many checks and balances. I pointed out some of the problems that are already encountered by the Merz government.


Those weren't blind spots. Adenauer was fully aware of whom he was dealing with, but he had a good eye for talent and and knew who could be relied on. Which was tremendously important because a) a lot of the important decisions required absolute confidentiality and b) most of the institutions had to be rebuilt so he had to rely more on a few individuals in key positions than his successors.

Another thing to consider is the different mentality towards the past of individuals and their eligibility for prominent positions. Today we think that someone like Globke should never hold a high position in government, or someone like Hans Filbinger should never be voted into office. Back then however the majority of Germans believed (many with self-serving reasons) that if someone did not implicate himself too much during the Third Reich, then he should be given a second chance. And to be entirely fair towards Globke, his true culpability it is still a matter of great debate amongst historians.

News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]


Sounds easy right? Of course then you European law and Human Right conventions that contradict that law. Neighbours who refuse to take them back, like we are already seeing with Poland.... Refugees who make it on German soil and apply to German courts.... Sick and infirm refugees who are in need of immediate medical attention... The economic and political fallout from such controles.

It remains to be seen if the (comparatively limited) measures taken by the Merz government citing special circumstances caused by high refugee numbers will survive the judicial appeals.

News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]


Because like I said, it is not their doomed to fail reform attempts regarding our refugee system that worrys me.

The refugee crisis is just the key issue the AfD wants to exploit in order to get into a position that allows them to implement their real plans.

There is a new book coming out with apparantly some fascinating insights into Höcke's ideology, written by an author from the conservative newspaper Die Welt. He seemed to have held those views well before Merkel became chancellor.

Höckes eigentliches Feindbild ist nicht Merkel, sondern Adenauer

welt.de/politik/deutschland/article68c948df420d2a3ce3b51b2f/rechtsextremer-vordenker-hoeckes-eigentliches-feindbild-ist-nicht-merkel-sondern-adenauer.html

"The thesis, advanced for years by the author of this foreword, that Angela Merkel was the involuntary midwife of the AfD, must also be reconsidered - at least as far as Höcke is concerned. He was not radicalized by a "welcoming culture" or a supposed leftward shift of the CDU/CSU parties. Höcke suffers from American popular culture, "reeducation," Western ties, and a struggle to come to terms with the past.

His real enemy is not Merkel, but Adenauer. He suffers from the fact that Germany's "long road to the West" finally succeeded under the great CDU chancellor after such painful detours. Höcke rejects more than just "Merkel's Germany." The good old Federal Republic is a horror to him!"

News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]


Those cuts have already been made in the last few years. Maybe some additional measures can be taken against rejected asylum seekers, but not to the extent that you imagine. The courts have been very clear on this issue.

Regular asylum seekers will still receive free housing, food and basic healthcare and access to schools. That is something the AfD couldn't change even if they got above 50% of the votes.


Peanuts compared to the financial gaps that the demographic change will cause in the future.

And especially if we see a significant increase of Ukrainian refugees in the future.


Which was an argument used to defend Merkel's decision to not close the border, since it would have required those measures, but much larger in scale and intensity.

News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]


You mean like border controles that prevent refugees from entering Germany?

News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]


What plans? They have never formulated a coherent plan to deal with Germany's pressing structural problems like the collapse of our pension system, their proposals to reform our welfare system usually only adresses foreigners (often in a possibly discriminatory way) and their ideas to solve the refugee issue are either impractical and or unconstitutional.

And since their one and only relevant issues are refugees, I'd argue that having a closer look on how their views on foreign policy might impact the number of arrivals. You can be sure that if Ukraine collapses, several million Ukrainians will make their way West.

News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]


Which is the problem. As I pointed out above, the AfD is not just doing what (some) in the SPD are doing. There is a consensus in the party about Ukraine, Russia and the EU that goes against everything the democratic parties stand for.

And yeah, I have more (if not much) understanding for people who a) support Ukraine b) condemn Russia but believe that reaching an understanding with them in the very long run is inevitable. Rather than those who a) dont want to help Ukraine b) defend Putin and Russia c) are doing everything to undermine our own security and deterrence against Russia. One can say a lot about Mützenich, but he actually ended up supporting Scholz' Zeitenwende.


I am simply taking the AfD at their word. While your views on them seem to guided by wishful thinking. Again, I recommend you watch Weidel's interview with Lanz.


Leaving aside that the Left party has never been part of the federal government, in large part due to their foreign policy positions.

The Left party is at least naming Putin as the agressor, is in favour of (non-military) aid and instead of resuming energy ties with Russia advocates for stronger sanctions in the (in my opinion) mistaken belief that economic pressure would be enough to make Putin reconsider his war.

The AfD wants to seize all support for Ukraine and immediately resume ties with Russia. Not only would Ukraine receive no more weapons, we would be directly financing Russia's war against them. See the difference?

News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]

This article should dispell any illusions one could have about the AfD and Russia.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AfD_pro-Russia_movement


And just like with everything else in the AfD, the radical positions are gaining ground. Leading politicians like Gauland, Weidel, Höcke and Chrupalla
are all united with their resistance against further aid for Ukraine and reapproachment to Russia.


It is more than that. It is obvious that many in the AfD have a positive image of Russia and Putin. They view him as the kind of leader they want for their own country. Quite a lot of them would probably be happy if Russia ended up occupying Germany again because they believe that Putin would put them in charge.


Instead they sent "observers" to the sham referendum in Crimea and the Russian sham presidential elections. One AfD politician even showed up in a Russian propaganda show, agreeing with the host (who regulary threatens with nuclear strikes at Berlin btw.) The AfD leadership reacted to this... by censuring the one AfD politician who criticized the appearance in the propaganda show.

Comparing some (misguided) attempts of the SPD to keep diplomatic channels open to that kind of Pro-Russian policies is intellectually dishonest. Even Stegner (whose positions are likely the reason why he no longer has an influential role in the SPD) always made clear that a reproachment with Russia would only be possible after Russia stopped its' invasion of Ukraine permanently and made at least some concessions towards Kiev. The AfD wants to kick Ukraine under the bus and could not care less if the whole country gets occuppied. Moral issues aside, that kind of geostrategic short-sightness is yet another reason why hopefully the AfD will never be in a position of power in Germany.

News / Germany's Socio-Political Climate and Its Impact on Poland [122]

Are you aware of a single prominent figure within the AfD who has been really critical of Putin?

Genuine question, I have watched numerous talk shows in which AfD politicians downplayed russia's actions and at best they 'll start with one sentence condemning the war and then use the rest of the time defending Putin and Russia. And why wouldn't they not, Putin's regime has been supporting them for the last ten years.

Most telling was Alice Weidel's appearance on Markus Lanz (06.03.2025) in which she called Zelensky a "beggar president". The amount of contempt she had in her voice for a man who is fighting for the survival of his nation.... . She never put that kind of weight behind her half-hearted criticism of Putin.

News / Will PiS be happy if AfD wins elections in Germany? [1440]


Which is one of the more convincing arguments that I have heard regarding an AfD Verbot. A little more time is often what makes the difference between success and failure in politics. Who knows how things had turned out if the democratic parties in the Weimar Republic had had a little more time to build on the success of the "golden" 5 years of the late 1920s before the world economy crashed.


I fear the destructive potential of populist parties. Destroying things is easy and goes relatively fast, while rebuilding from the ashes is difficult and requires time. We take e.g. the EU for granted nowadays, but building it required multiple generations of politicians who both had the vision and fortuna to make it happen. And the AfD wants to put that at risk. Same goes for the threat of Russia. I'd rather see as acting as the leader uniting other countries against the Russian threat, then siding with Putin and in the best case alineating our closest political and economic partners (worst case we see war spreading from Ukraine to other European countries).

News / Will PiS be happy if AfD wins elections in Germany? [1440]


And why do you believe that France would be better off if MLP was in charge instead of Macron?

All she has done so far is advocating for destructive policies. Her Russia policies were atrocious, and she sabotaged any attempts to reform the cumbersome French wellfare state.

And the AfD is even worse.

That is what people said back in the early 1930s. The economy is bad, we had a world war less than 2 decades ago, let someone new take shot. It can't possibly get any worse. But it could and it did.

News / Will PiS be happy if AfD wins elections in Germany? [1440]


No, because the AfD candidate only came in 4th place with less than 10% of the votes and thus hasn't reached the second round.

nrz.de/politik/article409889501/ergebnisse-so-lief-die-kommunalwahl-2025-in-koeln.html


It is simply an observation. There are AfD mayors now and even a Landrat and their performance has been less than stellar. And it has been observed that regions with strong AfD election results have found it more difficult to attract skilled workers from abroad.


The AfD is primarily held back from power due to their own choices. We could have had a black-blue government today, if the AfD had followed into the footsteps of Meloni and Le Pen, but instead of getting rid off the crazies in their ranks, they promoted them and gave them leadership positions. If a political movement is so toxic, that not even their French, Italian and Polish counterparts want anything to do with them, then maybe not forming a government with them is less a conspiracy from the democratic parties and more a consequence of their survival instincts.

News / Will PiS be happy if AfD wins elections in Germany? [1440]


We shall see. Merz has now implemented significant changes in our asylum system and the number of new arrivals reflect that. We may even see regular deportation flights to Afghanistan in the future if recent news reports are to believed.

The AfD is a one-trick party. They do well when the refugee numbers are up, and when other issues emerge they lose votes, like they did in 2021.

The crucial issue now is that the economy recovers.

News / Will PiS be happy if AfD wins elections in Germany? [1440]


Not really. The Greens fully expected to lose compared to 5 years ago and their share of votes was larger than feared. They may even end up with a mayor in the town of Münster or Cologne, something the AfD can only dream about.


Yeah, and Sweden is a crime-infested hellhole, instead of one of the most peaceful and prosperous places on Earth. That is at least the impression one would have if one follows far-right propaganda. NRW is a large area with roughly as many people of living there as in East Germany. There are very poor places there but also very prosperous ones. Going by income per cirizen NRW remains among the upper half of German states.

Cologne was the site of infamous Sylvester night in 2015. Now the citizens will either choose an mayor from the Green party or the SPD.


It is when you look at how places develop where the AfD has grown strong. Things only get worse there because on top of having no solutions to the structural problems of the regions, they make them even less appealing to the skilled migrants we so desperately need (and they have no idea of how to get rid off the unskilled, illegal ones either).

On the real bright side though, the BSW only got 1% of the votes. So Putin's parties only poll at around 22%, which is not great, but also not detrimental to the politic stability of the state.

News / Will PiS be happy if AfD wins elections in Germany? [1440]

This is still the 2nd best result the Greens ever had in NRW. And compared to 5 years ago, priorities have changed for many voters. Climate change has become less of a concern while the economy is now seen as a priority. So not a result they can proud off, but nothing to be ashamed off either.

It is sad though to see that an increasing nunber of people in home state are now voting for people who'll actively make things much worse for everyone. People who are not interested in solving issues but in keeping them open love to talk down everything.

News / Will PiS be happy if AfD wins elections in Germany? [1440]


The old ones sure. Doesn't mean that there can't be new ones.


It wasn't though. The murder of people trying to escape the GDR was in fact illegal even by the laws of the GDR. There were even some attempts to prosecute the culprits by GDR attorneys until the Politburo put a stop to it. Which is why it was possible to prosecute the culprits after 1989, because they could not fall back on the "nulla poena sine lege" argument.

This is also the difference between the GDT and FRG. The FRG follows the rule of law, and any attempt to ban the AfD will need to convince the German Constitutional Court, not the government. If


1. We are not living in a failing state. We experience economic difficulties and our state is need of reform, but we are not living in Somalia, Venezuela or Russia.

That distinction is important because I know quite a few AfD voters who keep saying that "since things cant get any worse, the AfD should get a shot" Except of course, things can get infinitely worse from where we are right now. We are still living in a peaceful, wealthy country in which most people can live a decent, peaceful life.

2. Nobody has anything against opposition. The problem with the AfD is though that they dont seem to want to reform the system, fix what is broken but destroy it at the expense of values that lie at the heart of our constitution. That is not acceptable and never will be.

2. There is

News / Will PiS be happy if AfD wins elections in Germany? [1440]


I'd argue there is difference between calling Biermann or Höcke a fascist.


Not really. And I don't understand why some people fall for this narrative of the AfD, when the parallels to 1933 are also much more obvious.

In 1989 there was a popular democratic revolution against a corrupt and failing dictatorship that kept its' people imprisoned.

In 1933 there was a young democracy during a time of economic crisis, which was under fire from that far-right and far-left who gained enough strength to prevent the formation of any democratic government.


Leaving aside that people who call for those measures against the AfD do so on the basis of our constitution and the law, whereas the GDR persecuted people even in direct violation of its' own laws, it is certainly too early to say that.

The GDR collapsed not because it persecuted the opposition, but because it was a failing system that never worked properly and thus never enjoyed popular support. It was doomed the moment the Soviets decided that keeping it alive was no longer worth the cost.

The AfD in its' current form has existed for barely 10 years now. By political standards, that is no time at all.

If they want to govern, they need to either gain more than 50% of the votes or to convince other parties form a coalition with them. As long as they champion positions that go against everything their likely coalition partner stand for (e.g. regarding the EU, Putin, Ukraine) and have politicians in their ranks with whom no respectable person would want to be seen with this will remain impossible.

News / Will PiS be happy if AfD wins elections in Germany? [1440]

Where is the parallels to 1989 exactly?

News / Will PiS be happy if AfD wins elections in Germany? [1440]


Hindenburg, 30.01.1933

News / Why should Poland consider pursuing a strategic alliance with Russia? [396]


Not to the rank of world power, but Russia would certainly became significantly more dangerous to the rest of Europe and Eastern Europe in particular.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


I'd argue that is the wrong question. Rather than "kicking" the Americans out, any German government will have to make a case to the Americans as to why staying is in the interest of the USA. All the AfD needs to do is shrug when asked what they are willing to offer the USA for a continued American presence and that's it.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


Not if the AfD has a say. They have made it clear that they don't want any hostilities with Russia.


Who would no longer be able to operate from Germany.

Off-Topic / AfD Party is growing ever more powerful throughout country [187]


Yet Poland is already struggling with the refugees that have arrived so far from Ukraine.


Now add the border with Kaliningrad Oblast and Belarus. A pretty long border to protect.


Is the current status of Belarus good for Poland's security? Would Poland's geopolitical situation improve if Belarus was neutral instead of being a Russian satellite?

Nevermind that by subjugating Ukraine, Russia gain access to the most battle-hardened soldiers on the European continent, who have far more experience in fighting a modern war than any other army.


You do realize that they view Russia as an ally, not a threat, don't you?