News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another day, another poll, and this one confirms that Duda is slipping:

Duda: 39%
Trzaskowski: 18%
Hołownia: 15%
Bosak: 8%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 3%
Biedroń 2%
Jakubiak: 2%
Undecided: 1%

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Latest polls. Things are getting very, very interesting. I wouldn't like to bet on either Hołownia or Trzaskowski at this point, and I'm still undecided as to who to vote for myself. Duda has definitely no chance of winning in the first round now, and if he does collapse to 34% by the end of next month, he will have lost the election.

Election this Sunday:

Duda: 43%
Hołownia: 20%
Trzaskowski: 15%
Bosak: 8%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 5%
Biedroń: 5%
Undecided: 5%

Election in July:

Duda: 34%
Hołownia: 21%
Trzaskowski: 17%
Bosak: 7%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 6%
Biedroń: 6%
Undecided: 10%

Assuming Duda vs Hołownia in the 2nd round:

(All participants in the survey)

Hołownia: 46%
Duda: 32%
Undecided: 20%

(Only those who would vote this Sunday)

Duda: 47%
Hołownia: 46%
Undecided: 7%

(Only those who would vote in July)

Hołownia: 51%
Duda: 38%
Undecided: 11%

Small update: Morawiecki has announced June 28th as the election day, with the second round on July 12th.

To compare to 2015, Komorowski lost around 10% of the vote (and Duda gained 9%) over the space of 5 weeks.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


If it does, the PiS project is probably finished. They won't be able to overturn the Presidential veto, and with both the Senate and Presidency in opposition hands, they would have almost no room to move while having to take responsibility for government.

Interesting side bet: would a challenger to JK arise in such a scenario?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Well, well, well...

Another day, another poll, but this one is perhaps the most surprising of them all. It's conducted for wPolityce.pl, a site/magazine that is run by PiS, and the results are interesting.

Duda 41% (-8%)
Trzaskowski 21% (+16%)
Hołownia 18% (-4%)
Kosiniak-Kamysz 7% (-5%)
Bosak 6% (-1%)
Biedroń 5% (+1%)
Tanajno 1%
Jakubiak 1%

I would hesitate before taking this poll seriously, but if it was done fairly, then this is the first sign of trouble for Duda. He's almost completely lost the "crisis bonus", and there's still at least 5 weeks before the election.

There are also other polls suggesting that Duda will lose to both Trzaskowski and Hołownia in the 2nd round with a turnout of between 65-70%.

I would urge caution before taking any of this as truth, but even TVP Info reported it: tvp.info/48138056/sondaz-duzy-spadek-poparcia-dla-prezydenta

One key takeaway - there are reports now that turnout in cities could be as large as 80%. I find it impossible to believe, but if there really is such mobilisation, then this election is very unpredictable.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Yes, it's pretty clear now that the second round will happen. There's another poll today worth noting:

A.Duda 43.7%
R.Trzaskowski14.0%
Sz.Hołownia 13.3%
W.Kosiniak-Kamysz 9.8%
K.Bosak 6.9%
R.Biedroń 5.2%
Undecided 7.1%

Second round:

A.Duda 49.3%
R.Trzaskowski40.5%
Undecided 10.2%

What's worth looking at are the trends - ewybory.eu/wybory-prezydenckie-2020/sondaze-prezydenckie/ - Duda has lost around 7% of the electorate since the beginning of May.

Off-Topic / Stock Market and Trading Talk [1011]


NVDA should go up quite a lot, the sales figures should have been remarkably strong, and esports can only grow in strength with the problems associated with normal sports right now. I wouldn't have said it 5 years ago, but I think they're almost certainly going to be a blue chip stock for the long term now.

AMD is an interesting bet, because their Ryzen processors are astonishingly good - an interesting article here for you: anandtech.com/show/15787/amd-ryzen-5-3600-review-amazons-best-selling-cpu - and it helps that Intel have had serious problems with their roadmap/chip performance.

Meanwhile, Polish stocks are in an absolute mess. The government is badly handling the management of many of the biggest state-controlled companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange - there's a very good article here that you can run through Google Translate: innpoland.pl/159623,demontaz-polskiej-gieldy-zaczal-sie-od-skoku-na-ofe - imagine that one of the largest energy companies here is valued at only 0.1 of the book value?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


As we see, our Polonia friend advocates using tear gas on protesters.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Incredible to see how the Polonia openly promote dictatorships for Poland, but they won't come and live here themselves under such a regime.

Anyway, the latest poll:

Duda: 43.7%
Trzaskowski: 16.54%
Hołownia: 15.88%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 9.73%
Bosak: 6.45%
Biedroń: 5.51%
Tanajno: 0.82%
Jakubiak: 0.80%
Piotrowski: 0.43%
Żółtek: 0.08%

More importantly, the second round result:

Duda: 53%
Trzaskowski: 47%.

Off-Topic / Stock Market and Trading Talk [1011]


I know the stock Johnny, and it's an interesting bet. They're a well run company, they have a lot of exciting things that will come online down the line, and they've got a very very strong brand with immense brand recognition among consumers.

There's only one real threat to them - AMD - but they historically have gone through boom and bust cycles with technology, like a few years back, they were very much #2 on the market. Now they're doing well again, but I doubt they can challenge Nvidia's dominance in graphics.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It's not that easy for him - it sounds like he has high support, but he won't take any votes from Trzaskowski/Hołownia/Biedroń voters. Kosiniak-Kamysz will almost certainly endorse Duda's opponent in the 2nd round, so it leaves Bosak's electorate with the power to decide.

Have you seen the videos from last weekend with protesting business owners being tear gassed in Warsaw?

Konfederacja voters are also furious at the manipulation of Trójka, which is another big problem for Duda...

(note: some of the hard right wing are also mad at PiS for the restrictions in churches, which are actually more harsh than those for restaurants. This stuff matters when every vote counts.)

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


That's by no means certain. The latest poll:

Duda: 43.2%
Trzaskowski: 16.5%
Hołownia: 15.9%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 9.7%
Bosak: 6.4%
Biedroń: 5.5%

Bosak's electorate effectively holds the balance of power right now, and there's absolutely no guarantee that they will vote for Duda. If Duda drops to 40%, he'll have serious trouble in the second round. Smaller towns may not be enough for Duda, especially if people don't see tangible effects from the anti-crisis shield. If PiS go with June 28th, then if there's no money in the account (or less than they thought they would get) on the 10th July, it's going to play on the minds of the electorate.

Duda isn't quite where he was before the crisis, but if he falls to 40%, he'll be fighting for every single vote.


Indeed.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Might it not be enough, though? It's clear that WKK/Hołownia/Trzaskowski are pretty much equal, and Hołownia has the media skills behind him. I don't know what the grass roots support looks like, but Kukiz managed 20% off the back of a campaign that was mostly online too. Winning 20% now could be enough for the 2nd round...

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Shows how unpredictable Polish presidential elections are. Did anyone see Tymiński beating Mazowiecki in 1990 into the 2nd round, or Kwaśniewski beating Wałęsa across most of the country in 1995? WKK was on the rise until Hołownia started running a decent online campaign, and now he's floundering.


Maybe so. However, that doesn't bode well for Duda, as it means he's back in the same position as he was before the crisis, where he will pick up 40ish percent of the vote in the first round and he'll be fighting for every last vote in the 2nd round.


What makes you think that Konfederacja voters will vote for Duda? Bosak is spending most of his time attacking PiS, he's not suddenly going to endorse Duda in the 2nd round. They're far more likely to stay quiet, just as they did in the Senate elections. Endorsing Duda now would **** off their electorate, especially as many of them are ones directly suffering from the policies of PiS.


Might be good to actually follow what people are saying rather than relying on those messages from Nowogrozka, you know.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Why would there be a civil war among them? There's some sniping, but all the opposition candidates have clearly agreed to limit the attacks on each other and to focus on Duda instead. There's nothing to gain by discrediting each other - which is exactly why Bosak has focused on PiS and Duda. Even today, Bosak announced that he's preparing a lawsuit against Jacek Sasin for illegally printing 30m ballot papers. They're very much focusing on PiS as opposed to other opposition parties, and it's working.

Hołownia might not be consumed. He's consistently polling 2nd now, and Biedroń has lost almost all his support to Hołownia after that idiotic and very badly timed attack on him. If Hołownia turns his online support into something tangible, he might well make the 2nd round.


He's a classic "don't be a dick" conservative - something that I think is electable.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It's really hard to say right now. Duda is polling around 43-45% which should be enough for him, but anything less than 42% and he'll be struggling. Whether it's even PO in the second round is another question - Hołownia (a moderate independent Catholic who is broadly acceptable to people, even me) is really picking up steam.

Duda has the advantage right now, and there's no point in pretending otherwise.


It'll probably happen - the 13th pension will have been spent/given to desperate relatives, so it won't have the electoral effect. They're talking about giving 1000zł to every worker earning below average wage for holidays, but that might backfire badly.

News / Poles say a big YES to our European Union [957]


Yes, from the exit poll:

sonar.wyborcza.pl/sonar/7,156422,25304241,wybory-2019-koalicja-trzyma-sie-tylko-dzieki-mlodym.html

For the sake of making it easy to quote:

18-29 - KO/PSL/Lewica (52%) / PiS/Konfederacja (46.4%)
30-39 - KO/PSL/Lewica (53.3%) / PiS/Konfederacja (45.1%)
40-49 - KO/PSL/Lewica (53.9%) / PiS/Konfederacja (45%)
50-59 - KO/PSL/Lewica (45.4%) / PiS/Konfederacja (53.8%)
60+ - KO/PSL/Lewica (42.7%) / PiS/Konfederacja (56.7%)

It's a fascinating look at how Polish politics are played out - probably older voters rely more on TV (hence ~80% going to PiS/KO), while younger voters are much more internet savvy and able to decide for themselves, resulting in the vote being effectively split 4 ways.

There was some data somewhere showing that the youngest voters went heavily to Konfederacja and Lewica, but I don't remember where I've seen it now.

News / Poles say a big YES to our European Union [957]


Not really. Of course, I suspect your orders only include references to polls carried out by Do Rzeczy and similar.

News / Poles say a big YES to our European Union [957]


As usual, more lies from the Aussie Polonia. A majority of people aged 18-29 voted for opposition parties, not including Konfederacja.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


How many posts do you have to make today about this? I suppose there'll be an urgent Party meeting about this, so how many posts does Daddy need you to make?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Hence why the urgent orders were sent out from Nowogrodzka to post things about him.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Trzaskowski is all-but-named, and it probably spells the end for Hołownia. It's not a bad choice - he's young and articulate, and he'll be able to get the message across to a cross-section of voters. WKK will also need to focus strongly on the PiS electorate now, as he won't have much luck with the typical KO voter.

News / Poles say a big YES to our European Union [957]


From a Russian perspective, the current situation in Poland probably suits them perfectly. Chaos and disorder is perfect for a Kremlin-backed party to emerge offering a 'new solution', after all. From the Chinese perspective, PiS are spending everything and leaving nothing in the piggy bank, which makes them a perfect target for 'cheap' infrastructure loans.


I imagine that it was quite seductive for educated Afghans, as the Soviets were deep into the 'cult of technology' by that point. Probably the benefits of Soviet life, including a stable political environment and a somewhat stable country were probably far preferable to sharing a goat with ten cousins round the back of Uncle's house.

(have you read Midnight in Chernobyl? It gives a very fascinating insight into how the Soviets by the 70's/80's had become a bizzaro-world where technology and technological advances had replaced religion).

I do find it interesting how the USA apparently learnt nothing from the Soviet attempts to bring Afghanistan under control.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Spotted on Konfederacja's Facebook page today: PiS are now trying to sneak yet another tax in, this time, a 6% tax on all smartphones, smart TV's and tablets sold.

Gliński (Minister of Culture) even said that 'now is the right time to introduce such a tax'!

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

You have to admit, at least he's given us an excellent opportunity to post all the scandals associated with Duda.

News / Poles say a big YES to our European Union [957]


Following up on this, how would you make sure that these industries remain in private hands and not subject to interference from politicians?

I have nothing against the privatisation of these companies and making a rule that only Polish citizens can own shares, but how do you prevent it from turning into Russian-style oligarchy? Perhaps worker self-management/self-ownership?


Looking at what China's doing elsewhere, they're completely ruthless. First they give, and then they ask. That big shiny new port that the Chinese lent you money for? Oh dear, you couldn't keep up with the payments...now it's the home of the 223rd Chinese Fleet. You can still keep a few boats there, but don't interfere with our fleet or else.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I'm quite sure. Let's look more at Duda's company, shall we?

bezprawnik.pl/afera-pck/ - here, we can see how PiS members stole millions from the Polish Red Cross. Stealing from a charity that helps the weakest in society is frankly disgusting.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

As we can see from this election, you can learn a lot about a person by the company they keep. Duda, being from PiS, certainly knows how to pick his friends:

innpoland.pl/158157,30-mln-zl-na-premie-ministerialnych-urzednikow-na-przelomie-2019-i-2020-r

30m PLN in bonuses handed out to PiS members from various ministries in just two months.

Of course, it would be rude to forget about the PiS MP Pięta and his sexual adventures, which included cheating on his wife with a woman 20 years younger. And in the Sejm hotel! He was also a great promoter of family values. LOL.

planeta.pl/Wiadomosci/Polityka/Posel-PiS-Pieta-afera-wraca.-Kochanka-opisala-romans-i-seks-w-hotelu


Our Comrade really has nothing to say about them. I wonder why?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


As we can see, Comrade Korki has strict orders not to discuss fellow Party members and their indiscretions. A good comrade is one that covers up and denies everything, after all.

Should we perhaps highlight the activities of PiS and the narcotics industry in Bogatynia instead?

natemat.pl/294905,tomasz-t-szef-rady-miejskiej-z-bogatyni-ma-zarzuty-za-handel-metamfetamina

News / Poles say a big YES to our European Union [957]


The same regulations that allow Polish companies to compete on the open market?

Poland received far more than it has paid to the EU, as witnessed by the economic stagnation of the 1990's followed by the boom from 2004 onwards.


Spike, do you realise how many of those companies worked? They were funded by local/provincial/national governments, often as a money pit. They were often dreadful workplaces, with rampant cronyism depending on who the paymaster was. Why are you supporting such businesses as an alleged free marketeer?


That was where Poland was headed until PiS won. With Brexit, there's a huge gap for Poland to slide nicely into as a core member, but it looks like that role will go to the Dutch instead. Brawo, PiS!

News / Poles say a big YES to our European Union [957]


Badly.

Poland is marginalised in the current EU and has no real allies. Hungary doesn't count, unless you accept Russian interference.