News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll, and I'd rate this one as credible:

Duda: 41%
Trzaskowski: 26.1%
Hołownia: 12%
K. Kamysz: 7.1%
Bosak: 6.5%
Biedroń: 2.3%

Turnout of 58.9%, which seems slightly low.

==

There is a definitely slight shift away from Duda towards Trzaskowski, but we're speaking in the realm of 0.5-1%. From my perspective, I'd expect to see a slight bounce for Trzaskowski based on the blitz to get 100,000 signatures, so he should be consistently polling ~27% next week.

IMO, there is also a possibility that the same situation will repeat itself as with the European elections, and Bosak will lose ~20% of his support at the ballot box to Duda.

My opinion stays the same - Duda needs 42% in the first round in order to win the 2nd. Anything between 40-42% is too close to tell, while below 40% and he loses to Trzaskowski.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Badly. Miners are... it's hard to explain, but they treat mining as if it's some sort of religious experience. Even the suggestion of mines being closed in Silesia could cost them 100-200,000 votes.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Oops, didn't mean to post that. Mods, can you delete that post please?


There are some interesting signs coming from polls, such as that Duda is losing ground among young people to Bosak in large provincial towns. There's still not enough data to tell, but I think Bosak's electorate may well end up deciding things in the 2nd round. I'd expect a hard pitch to the right by Duda between the 1st and 2nd rounds to try and convince them of his merits.

One key thing - apparently voters in Silesia are really, really upset with being blamed by the government for the coronavirus situation. We all know how tribal they are...

Still, I believe that Duda has a 3-4% advantage right now in the 2nd round. He has the benefit of being the incumbent, as well as having the support of the government.


Don't be too surprised by the Polish ability to shoot themselves in the foot ;)

Sorry for the double posting Mods, but I wanted to add this:

The survey that I posted in post #970 has been adjusted to only count decided voters, and:

Duda 50,0%
K.Kamysz 50,0%

Duda 50,1%
Trzaskowski 49,9%

Duda 50,2%
Holownia 49,8%

Duda 53,0%
Biedroń 47,0%

Duda 60,1%
Bosak 39,9%

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I believe, personally, that Duda has a 3-4% advantage. He will get more umdecided c

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll, and I think this one is more credible. The source isn't one known for bias, too.

1st round:

Duda: 41.2%
Trzaskowski: 27%
Hołownia: 12%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 7%
Bosak: 6.6%
Biedroń: 2.2%
Undecided: 4%

2nd round:

Duda: 44.5%
Trzaskowski: 44.3%
Don't know: 6.7%
Won't vote: 4.5%

Duda: 43.4%
Hołownia: 43.1%
Don't know: 3.5%
Won't vote: 10%

Duda: 45.3%
Kosiniak-Kamysz: 45.3%
Don't know: 2.9%
Won't vote: 6.5%

Duda: 46.1%
Biedroń: 40.9%
Don't know: 3.3%
Won't vote: 9.7%

Duda: 46.3%
Bosak: 30.7%
Don't know: 3.7%
Won't vote: 19.3%

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Barely. The polls are showing that Konfederacja are gaining at the expense of PiS, not other parties. They might pick up some voters from what remains of K'15, but then anyone jumping would have already jumped. The idea of PO voters moving away from PO to Konfederacja is amusing though - if anything, they're going to the PSL or Lewica.


I think it's political strategy. If someone abandons PiS for Konfederacja, they're by no means certain to vote for Duda in the 2nd round. So, better to leave him alone and let him chip away at Duda.

Bosak is doing well by sticking to economic/real life issues and downplaying the social issues, but that only lasts as long as there's a form of detente between him and other candidates. As soon as he poses a threat to the duopoly, he'll be crushed.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Where to even begin with the stupidity? They're talking about how they'll 'force prices to be low while paying farmers a fair amount', which is clearly fantasy stuff. At most, they'll just pour taxpayers money into buying up goods at a high price while dumping them on the market - which is PRL stuff through and through.


I have no inclination for vanity projects, such as the horrendously expensive changes taking place at Radom Airport, an airport that no-one wants to fly to.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


For now, yes - but only in terms of the PiS electorate. There's been barely any movement from other parties towards Konfederacja.


Nothing whatsoever ;) But it's their saying...

PiS are so horrendously left wing that it's unreal, the only difference is that they replaced the names from the propaganda, but the message is the same.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

If the election to the Sejm was held today, here's an updated forecast from one of the political scientists that I follow:

PiS: 37.6%
KO: 28.9%
Lewica: 11%
PSL: 9.7%
Konfederacja: 9.1%

It's very clear that there's movement from PiS towards Konfederacja, and the "nothing to the right of PiS" is now under severe threat.

It doesn't seem as if there's much movement between left and right, but it's worth remembering that under the Polish system, there's a significant bonus given to bigger parties.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Torq, come back onto PF right this minute, I need you!

Strange poll published today, one that doesn't make any sense (very low turnout) when compared to others:

Turnout: 48.8%

Duda: 42.3%
Trzaskowski: 23.2%
Hołownia: 11.4%
K.Kamysz: 9.3%
Bosak: 4%
Biedroń: 2.7%

Second round:

Duda: 49%
Trzaskowski: 46.6%
Undecided/hard to say: 4.6%

Another poll, and this one doesn't seem credible as well:

Duda: 32%
Trzaskowski: 25%
Hołownia: 22%
Bosak: 9%
Biedroń: 6%
K.Kamysz: 5%

Second round seems even more like bullshit:

Hołownia: 61%
Duda: 39%

Trzaskowski: 57%
Duda: 43%

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

He can't possibly comprehend the idea of parties having independent thoughts. Look at his posts above where he openly advocates for democracy to be crushed.

The election at the end of June is fine by me. Trzaskowski will get the "bounce" from collecting 100,000 signatures quickly too - as it'll require tremendous mobilisation.

I've got around 100 sheets already printed and waiting.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Dunno, why don't you tell us how long it takes to publish the PKW resolution that confirms that the election wasn't held on May 10th?

Tell us, why is Morawiecki blocking the publication of this?

rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wybory-prezydenckie2020/najnowsze-fakty/news-ko-morawiecki-blokuje-publikacje-uchwaly-pkw-zlozymy-zawiado,nId,4527900

21 days without being published and counting. Why is the Prime Minister illegally blocking the publication of the PKW's resolution?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Ah yes, typical PiS mental gymnastics again. The Senate (as even Gowin has acknowledged) had full right to consider the legislation in accordance with the Constitution, and PiS are only crying about it because they tried to ram through a fraudulent postal vote and get away with it.

What is it with PiS supporters and their hatred of democracy?


After shopping at the latest plan by PiS to create Communist-style state-owned supermarkets?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Wow.

One political scientist has it:

Duda: 51.4% (9,808,000 votes)
Trzaskowski: 48.6% (9,275,000 votes)

Duda wins by 533,000 votes.

His calculations break down into provinces as:

Strongly Duda: podlaskie, lubelskie, podkarpackie, małopolskie, świętokrzyskie (5/16)

Weakly Duda: łódzkie (1/16)

Draw: śląskie, kujawsko-pomorskie, warmińsko-mazurskie (3/16)

Weakly Trzaskowski: mazowieckie, dolnośląskie (2/16)

Strongly Trzaskowski: opolskie, wielkopolskie, lubuskie, pomorskie, zachodniopomorskie (5/16)

Trzaskowski's path to victory now involves winning Silesia and Kujawsko-Pomorskie, as well as finding a way to get through to voters in Lower Silesia to turn the province into a solid victory. If he can do all three, he wins. Conversely, Duda has to find a way to turn Mazowieckie and Silesia into at least a weak win, as well as limiting losses in Western Poland.

At this moment, I wonder why PiS are so sluggish.

==

Another political scientist projects in the first round:

Duda: 39.1%
Trzaskowski: 28.2%
Hołownia: 11%

Not decisive either way. Trzaskowski is still below the 30% mark that he needs, while Duda's 39.1% is well clear of the 35% mark where he would be considered to be in trouble.

Hołownia will be below 10% in the next week or so, IMO. He's making mistakes now, and the enthusiasm that was there two weeks ago is simply not there anymore.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

There'll be a couple of projections released tonight which will give us some idea as to how things are shaping up. My own prediction:

Duda: 41% (I don't believe he's as weak as some people think)
Trzaskowski: 27%
Hołownia: 11% (he's weakening very quickly)

Let's see what comes up...

If they release a second round projection, then I'm sitting on Duda winning by 51.5-48.5% right now.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


It is Poznań, so it was to be expected. The key thing is that Trzaskowski will now dominate the weekend's media narrative, and he was smart enough to not give a partisan speech. Instead, he called for unity and solidarity - something that can resonate with undecided voters.

In comparison, Morawiecki and Duda turned up at the useless white elephant project near Krynica, which isn't wanted by local residents and is a gigantic waste of money.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll:

Duda: 36.5%
Trzaskowski: 25%
Hołownia: 12%
K.Kamysz: 8.4%
Bosak: 6.5%
Biedroń: 3.5%
Tanajno: 0.3%
Jakubiak: 0.1%

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll based on the second round.

Duda: 51.32%
Trzaskowski: 48.68%

The polling company here is more credible than the one in my post above.

To give some perspective, 1% is (based on the 2019 Sejm election) worth just over 185,000 votes. This means Duda has a lead of roughly 500,000 votes.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another set of numbers, based on the second round.

Duda: 51%
Trzaskowski: 49%

Duda: 51%
Trzaskowski: 49%

Duda: 51%:
K. Kamysz: 49%

Duda: 53%
Biedroń: 47%

Duda: 56%
Bosak: 44%.

I call bullshit on this poll.

@Torq, without telling you the source, would you agree with my observation that this is nonsense and that it isn't possible for Duda to have weakened so much?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


I'll send it over to you privately - I'm trying to avoid the "BUT BIASED POLL / INFORMATION" type rants.


You're going to be quite surprised :P

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Another poll - only available as uncorrected.

Duda: 40%
Trzaskowski: 27%
Hołownia: 17%
Bosak: 6%
K-Kamysz: 5%
Biedroń: 4%

Turnout of 67%.

As an aside, the claims that the Hołownia electorate will vote for Duda are far-fetched. Results from parliamentary polls show that Hołownia took a large amount of support from Biedroń, and while it's likely that Hołownia will attract some new voters, the majority of his support is coming from the non-Duda electorate.


They're not getting pounded - be careful with how you interpret things. There is a measurable loss of perhaps 2-3%, but Duda still has the advantage.

There is something else that you might not be quite aware of - there is a thing called the 'reluctant PiS voter' - they support PiS, but for various reasons, keep very quiet about their affiliation.

As an aside, some information about how many voters for a candidate will not take part in the second round [b]if[/b ]their candidate doesn't make it. In brackets - the breakdown of how the voting part of a candidate's electorate will vote in the 2nd round.

Hołownia - 7% (6% Duda, 87% Trzaskowski)
K-Kamysz: 16% (24% Duda, 60% Trzaskowski)
Bosak - 43% (22% Duda, 35% Trzaskowski)
Biedroń - 5% (4% Duda, 91% Trzaskowski)

Polonia / Polonia in Germany [59]


Yes, that's what I'm thinking - that this is purely about politics, i.e. a fight that politicians don't want to have. The only problem is that the Ruhrpolen appear to have mostly turned after the beginning of the German Reich, but then if they simply migrated from elsewhere in the Reich...

I've just looked at the Bund der Vertriebenen President, and it turns out that it's a CSU politician from Bayern. There also seems to have been strong historical support from the SPD towards those expelled from the East, and they have over 500,000 members.

Tacitus or Ziemowit, could one of you have a look and see what the BdV think about granting Poles minority status in Germany? (Torq too, if you happen to speak German :p)

Polonia / Polonia in Germany [59]


I think it has to be within the borders of modern Germany, but from before 1870 if that makes sense?

I did some more reading last night before bed, and I've found some references in my books to the aforementioned powerful refugee lobby - it seems that they were desperately unhappy with what had happened, and Adenauer was relying on them to provide the backbone of the new West German economy and CDU-dominated political system. It would have been totally impossible for them to accept the restoration of minority rights for Poles after they were expelled from the "recovered territories", and by the time the political winds changed, the Turkish and Yugoslav gastarbeiter made it impossible to give minority rights to one group and not another.

What I don't know is the current situation - are the descendants of that refugee lobby still as powerful as they were in Adenauer's time?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


The speech in which Morawiecki whined about the plan to link the funding to the rule of law?

Polonia / Polonia in Germany [59]


Yes, they do. The law on minority/ethnic rights is actually very broad - anyone that was present on Polish territory at the founding of the modern state in 1918 is recognised as a minority. It's actually a well written law - ksng.gugik.gov.pl/english/files/act_on_national_minorities.pdf - Czechs and Slovaks are also recognised minorities, for instance.

I don't know why Armenians are mentioned (Torq? Is it connected to Łwów? I was in the Armenian cathedral there, but I know nothing about them), but for instance, the post-war Greek refugees aren't recognised as a minority.


Yes, it was exactly her that I was thinking of! Also Ewa Farna for a more modern version - born in the Czech Republic to Polish parents, identifies herself as Polish (and refused to change her name to Eva for the Czech market!), but it's very obvious from listening to her interviews that she doesn't identify with many aspects of Polish culture.

Is there anyone comparable in Germany, I wonder?

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]

Some interesting discussion and debate going on about the rise of Trzaskowski. Different views are around, but one caught my eye. It's the theory that if Trzaskowski doesn't keep growing in the polls, then the mobilised support will start to drop. In short, Trzaskowski needs to keep catching people's eyes in the media with agreeable policies until he catches Duda, otherwise his electorate may sense defeat and 'give up' on him.

Another interesting snippet: The infamous political ****** "Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy" have come out and backed Hołownia. Their national influence is negligible, but it's perhaps another 1-2% that isn't going to Duda or Bosak.

Polonia / Polonia in Germany [59]


I *believe* (from my bad German) that Germany has the same rule as Poland - that these people had to have been there (on the current territory) before the creation of the modern nation state. So Sinti, Roma, Danes and Sorbs all qualify, while Poles date from after the founding of the modern German state.


It's a good argument, but can you imagine any German politician campaigning to give Poles minority status and refusing Turks?

IMO, it's probably a consequence of post-war German politics - Adenauer could never have given Poles minority status in light of the post-war expulsions and the powerful refugee lobby in (West) Germany, and by the time Poles started to come in any real numbers, the Turks were also well established.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poles_in_Germany - worth a read. I'm wondering if it wouldn't be possible to divide Poles into pre and post-war groups - with only the pre-war group being permitted to avail of minority rights?

Then again, thinking about Poland, there's nothing in Polish law to distinguish between 'old' and 'new' minorities...

Polonia / Polonia in Germany [59]


Would you agree to give Indians minority status in Poland, even though they're also economic migrants? (talking about post-1990 migrants here, not the older Polish minority in the Ruhr).

I seem to remember that one reason for the Poles being denied any sort of minority status in Germany is that they'd have to recognise the Turks as a minority too, something that they don't want to do. Most of the Poles there now are economic migrants, just as the Turks are, so it would be very difficult to recognise one and not the other.

Polonia / Polonia in Germany [59]


Won't happen. Look at how the Polish minority in the Czech Republic works - they are Polish, with Polish culture, but they simply don't push Polish interests at all. The closure of the borders did nothing but remind them that Poland is a foreign country to them.

It's very noticeable in Polish schools in the Czech Republic - they learn the Czech world view, not the Polish one. The teaching language is Polish, but the schools represent Czech national interests, not Polish interests.


A very interesting map! I can explain the Syrian connection - a lot of refugees were placed in places like Hoyerswerda where large amount of empty flats could be found.

News / Presidential elections 2020 - your opinions about campaign, candidates [2222]


Like Macierewicz and his endless excuses for not publishing his Smoleńsk report?

Just to give some comparison - Trzaskowski according to the latest poll is behind by 12%.

At the same point (4 weeks before the election) in 2015, Komorowski had a lead of 22%.